The Twins Rotation is Going to be Bad

Last year the Twins were supposed to be unable to compete because of their pitching staff. The offense would be as strong as ever, but the pitching would stink. At least that's what many thought (including myself, to some degree).

But the pitchers put together a 4.15 team ERA, fourth-best in the AL, even with Johan Santana having an off year.
And the offense, aside from Torii Hunter - and for brief periods Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel - performed as though each hitter was coming to the plate with female anatomy.

And the Twins went 79-83.

Here's my early hunch on how things are going to go this year: The win total will be similar. If enough things go wrong, they could be a 70-win team. If they get some breaks, they could be an 85-win team. But contention is a near impossibility. But my guess is that how they get to 75-80 wins will be the opposite of how they did it last year.

The offense has a chance to be pretty good. I love Joe Mauer in the 2-hole (huh huh, see what I did there), and I think he, Morneau and Michael Cuddyer are all safe bets to rebound somewhat this year. I like Delmon Young. I like Jason Kubel. I like Mike Lamb and Brendan Harris, whom Gardy is still calling 'Brandon'.

But the pitching looks like it's going to be a struggle.
Francisco Liriano doesn't look too sharp. That's fine, by the way, because his health is way more important at this point than his effectiveness. As long as he's reporting no pain in his elbow, I won't care if his ERA is 6. For awhile anyway.

Livan Hernandez looks like he may be Sidney Ponson revisited. He's been awful so far this spring (though Carlos Silva did the same thing last spring and then had a pretty good season).

Scott Baker, the likely "ace", may have to start the season on the DL.
Boof Bonser looks like the best starter right now.

The good news with Liriano and Baker both being questionable for the rotation for awhile is that Phil Humber, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey should all get an extended look. Slowey should probably be in the rotation anyway, as he's not likely to get any benefit from more time in the minors. It's time for him to learn how to get big league hitters out.
But Humber and Blackburn are likely to spend this year alternating between the league and Rochester. Might as well see what they got right now, to at least see how far along they are.

These guys are all pretty talented, as are several other arms in the system, so I'm probably being overly negative and a little dramatic. It's not like they're trotting out Roy Smith or Jose Parra.

But there's a chance that the opening day rotation is going to look like this:

Livan
Boof
Slowey
Humber
Blackburn

That's not terribly encouraging.