AL Central Preview: Minnesota Twins

This year marks the first time since 2002 that I haven't gone with the Twins as my pick to win the AL Central, and there are a myriad of reasons for that.
The rotation could be bad. The lineup should be better, but that doesn't mean it will be. And if it's not, that would really hurt because they've already sacrificed some defense in trying to improve the offense.
And the formidable teams that Cleveland and Detroit have put together are the biggest factors of all. While the unbalanced schedule played a huge role in the Twins winning three straight AL Central crowns from 2002-2004 (the '03 team in particular was fairly weak) it will make things that much harder on them now, as they'll play the bulk of their games against Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Kansas City (Makes you realize just how much more impressive their '06 division title was than any of the other three).

In the past you could say something like, "Well, if everything goes right, and this happens and this happens and that happens, then they have a shot."
That's basically what happened in '06.
But this year, I think even if almost everything went right for the Twins, they'd still finish in third place. 85-88 wins seems like an absolute best case scenario.
And on the flip side, while I certainly don't expect this team to be bad, it could be. If enough things went wrong, 90 losses or more could be possible.

The Lineup
CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The Bench
C Mike Redmond
OF Monroe/Kubel
IF Nick Punto
IF Matt Tolbert

The biggest problem I have with this lineup is Gomez. I certainly liked what I saw from him in spring training from a tools/potential standpoint, but I'd be surprised if he posted better than a .300 OBP, and that's horrible from anywhere in the lineup, let alone the leadoff spot. I would not be surprised if Gomez made at least one trip back to Triple-A this year.
And in the 9-hole, Adam Everett will be doing well if he can hit .250 with a .300 OBP. He might be able to hit 6 or 7 homers - he once hit 11.
In between, however, I really like this lineup. I never liked Joe Mauer in the 3-hole, so it's great to see him batting second. He's ideal for that spot, especially since he's more of a groundball/line drive-hitter. Mauer was hurt for much of last year, and if he can stay healthy, he would be a great table-setter for what should be a solid middle.
And Mauer isn't the only one looking to bounce back, and/or take a step up. Morneau and Cuddyer both slumped last year, while Kubel and Young appear to be on the cusp of realizing their potential. I don't think Kubel is ever going to be the five-star player he was occasionally hyped as, but he very well could be a Shane Mack-type of contributor. Young could put up Kirby Puckett numbers eventually, but my guess is that's at least another year away.
I'm trying to keep an open mind about Monroe, but if he plays with any regularity against RHP, Ron Gardenhire should be shot.
Lamb and Harris aren't major difference makers, but they represent exactly the kind of offensive upgrades the Twins should've been making the last few years. You don't need to go out and land a superstar all the time. If they can both provide .275/.340/.430 numbers or thereabouts, it would make a big difference in a lineup that last year routinely featured Luis Castillo, Jason Tyner and Nick Punto at the same time.

The Ro'
RH Livan Hernandez
RH Boof Bonser
RH Scott Baker
RH Kevin Slowey
RH Nick Blackburn/LH Francisco Liriano

The 'pen
RH Matt Guerrier
RH Juan Rincon
RH Jesse Crain
RH Brian Bass
RH Pat Neshek
LH Dennys Reyes
RH Joe Nathan

The rotation is the Twins' weakness, without question. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be bad, but it would be something close to a miracle if it was better than league average.
I think the best way to break it down is one by one.
-Hernandez
He's durable, and Gardy and Rick Anderson have always valued veterans. I get a sense that the reason for that is more for what those veterans will do for the young guys from a mentorship role than what they'll do for the team's win/loss record.
Hernandez's ERA is likely to be north of 5. The question is whether or not he'll keep his spot in the rotation all year long.
-Bonser
Kind of a forgotten man, people seem to forget that he had an excellent rookie year, and pitched quite well in the first half of last season before breaking down. He lost 30 pounds, and while I'm not going to automatically assume that means he'll be better, I do think it's possible that Boof could provide 210 innings with an ERA in the low 4s or better.
-Baker
He really turned a corner last year, and has the stuff to make you think it's for real. His durability might be a question, but if healthy, he could work 200 innings with an ERA in the mid to high 3s.
-Slowey, Blackburn, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, etc.
This is where the seperation occurs. It's not a sure thing that even Boof or Baker will pitch well this year, and it's just flat out unlikely that Slowey, Blackburn and another host of rookies waiting in the minors are ready to turn the corner this year the way Baker has and Boof almost has.
Slowey has the best chance of that group to make a difference, but even he is probably due for another 100 innings of getting his brains beat in before he figures it out (for the record, I do think he will figure it out eventually).
-Liriano
You could call him the wild card of the group, but I think we can be fairly certain that he's not going to be anything close to his 2006 self this year. 130-160 innings would be a big positive, no matter what his ERA is.

The bullpen will be the strength of the team once again, and it'll likely be better than it was last year. Crain's return will be a big boost to the depth, ensuring that Neshek doesn't have to be so badly overused. Reyes wasn't healthy for most of last year, and guys like Carmen Cali were awful in his place. Rincon isn't what he once was, but he likely won't be asked to pitch in as many big spots as he used to.
Guerrier and Neshek are among the best in the business. So is that Nathan guy.

Last year the Twins had a decent rotation and a bad offense. This year those things should be flip-flopped, so for the most part I think they cancel each other out and the record ends up pretty close to what it was last year. With a healthier Mauer, a healthier bullpen, and slight improvement over last year from Morneau, Cuddyer, Young and Kubel, the Twins have just enough to nudge themselves over .500.
Minnesota Twins
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
Lineup: B
Rotation: C-
Bullpen: A
Bench: B-
Defense: B
2008 Prediction: 82-80, 3rd in AL Central

And the rest of the league....
AL West
1. Anaheim
2. Seattle
3. Oakland
4. Texas

AL Central
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland (WC)
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
5. Kansas City

AL East
1. Boston
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

NL West
1. Arizona
2. Colorado (WC)
3. Los Angeles
4. San Diego
5. San Francisco

NL Central
1. Chicago
2. Milwaukee
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. St. Louis
6. Houston

NL East
1. New York
2. Atlanta
3. Philadelphia
4. Washington
5. Florida

AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez
NL MVP: David Wright
AL CY: Jered Weaver
NL CY: Johan Santana
AL ROY: Daric Barton
NL ROY: Kosuke Fukudome