AL Central Preview: Cleveland Indians

The Indians should've been in the World Series last year, but they choked, something teams are prone to do when they play the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.
They're bringing back pretty much the exact same roster from a year ago, and even though the Tigers loaded up this off-season, the Indians seem to still be the pick in the AL Central.

I think they're gonna be pretty good, a playoff team in fact. But I don't think they're better than the Tigers.

Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Casey Blake
LF David Delluci/Jason Michaels
RF Franklin Gutierrez

Bench
C Kelly Shoppach
OF Delluci/Michaels
IF Josh Barfield
IF Jamey Carroll
IF Andy Marte
OF Shin-Soo Choo

The Indians won 96 games last year, even while Hafner slumped all season, and Sizemore failed to live up to the ridiculous Willie Mays comparisons.
I would fully expect Hafner, who's still only 30, to bounce back with a big year, and while I'm not of the opinon that Sizemore is ever going to be as good as Peter Gammons and Tom Verducci think he is, the guy is the best leadoff hitter in the game.
What I like about the Indians is their collection of second-tier talent.
Last year, many people (myself included) picked the Twins to win because they had such a strong collection of superstars (Hunter, Mauer, Nathan, Santana, Morneau). But one thing we should be learning is that having depth and balance is better than having several stars and several scrubs.

Guys like Ryan Garko, Casey Blake, Jhonny Peralta and Franklin Gutierrez are not stars, and they never will be. But Hafner, Martinez and Sizemore are. You put a core of superstars with an even bigger core of good-not-great players, and you've got a winner.

The only knock on this lineup is the defense. Sizemore is terrific in center, but the rest of them range from bad to average. If I were them I'd switch Cabrera and Peralta.

Rotation
LH CC Sabathia
RH Fausto Carmona
RH Jake Westbrook
RH Paul Byrd
RH Cliff Lee

This is the best rotation in the division. Sabathia appears to have finally harnessed his game, and that paid off in a Cy Young award. Carmona could just as easily have won it. They both won 19 games last year.
Westbrook and Byrd are average middle of the rotation guys, but when you have a pair of aces at the top, that's all you need. Still, I have my doubts about whether Carmona can repeat his performance from last year. The league might start to figure him out to some degree.
Lee had a terrible year last year, but there's not a major need for him to bounce back, because Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers are both ready to step in when needed.

Bullpen
RH Rafael Betancourt
LH Rafael Perez
LH Aaron Fultz
RH Tom Mastny
RH Jensen Lewis
RH Masahide Kobayashi
RH Joe Borowski

Borowski is, like Detroit's Todd Jones, not a very good pitcher. But they work as closers because they have good setup men in front of them, and because their veteran savvy when the game is on the line makes up for mediocre stuff.
Betancourt is maybe the best setup man in baseball, and the rest of the 'pen, a big weakness in '06, has also shaped up into a pretty good unit.

The Indians are going to be good again. The good news for Twins fans is that it is starting to look like this will be Sabathia's last year in Cleveland. With the injuries to Boston's pitching staff I think it's possible that the two best teams in the AL are both in the Central, and I expect them both to make the playoffs. Flip a coin. I like Detroit. But more on them tomorrow.

Cleveland Indians
Manager: Eric Wedge
Lineup: B+
Rotation: A
Bullpen: A-
Bench: B
Defense: C
2008 Prediction: 95-67, 2nd in AL Central