Last year, Baseball Prospectus, a stat-nerd organization (and I mean that in a good way) predicted the White Sox, who were two years removed from winning the World Series and had won 90 games the previous year, would go 72-90.
Bad sportswriters who hate advanced statistics seized on that projection as evidence of how stupid and phony all the number crunching "Moneyballistas" really are, but then something happened.
The Sox went 72-90. Right on the button.
I wrote before the season that they were "on their way down", but still predicted they'd win 86 games. But, thanks to a horrendous offense, and age catching up to several veterans, they sucked.
This year, Baseball Prospectus has them going 77-85.
I'd say that seems about right. The Sox would be better off rebuilding, maybe not a total overhaul but at least to the degree the Twins are. Instead, GM Ken Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen are being bullheaded, and think they can compete with the Tigers and Indians.
They can't. In fact, I think they'll struggle to win more games than the Twins and Royals (it's a 3-team race for third...or last, depending on your point of view).
Lineup
SS Orlando Cabrera
CF Nick Swisher
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
C AJ Pierzynski
3B Joe Crede
LF Carlos Quentin/Brian Anderson
2B Juan Uribe
Bench
IF Alexei Ramirez
IF Pablo Ozuna
IF Danny Richar
OF Jerry Owens
C Toby Hall
Cabrera is a terrific pickup at SS. He's a Gold Glover and a .300 hitter with pop. Swisher had a bit of a down year last year, but is still a terrific on-base guy with good power. Putting him in CF could be an adventure, though.
Dye and Konerko slumped a little last year, which is what everyone blames the Sox's struggles on, but they weren't actually all that bad, and neither was Thome. So I don't really understand all these claims that those three are going to bounce back.
Dye hit .254 with 28 homers, after hitting .315 with 44 homers in '06.
I'm sorry, but I'm thinking .254-28 is more typical for Dye than .315-44.
Crede is something of a wild card coming back from an injury, but Josh Fields, who hit 23 homers in 100 games last year, is waiting in the minors (who sends a guy who hit 23 homers to the minors?)
AJ is still a great competitor, but he's average defensively and average at the plate.
The bottom of their order could be pretty bad.
Rotation
LH Mark Buehrle
RH Javier Vazquez
RH Jose Contreras
LH John Danks
RH Gavin Floyd
I thought the Sox could and should trade Buehrle when they had the chance, but he's still only 29, and will give them a legit ace for another few years, whether they're competing or rebuilding.
Vazquez is a solid 2, but after that it gets real dicey. Floyd and Danks are highly regarded youngsters, but both got roughed up last year. I'm thinking Contreras might be washed up.
Bullpen
RH Scott Linebrink
RH Octavio Dotel
RH Mike MacDougal
RH Ehren Wasserman
RH Nick Masset
LH Boone Logan
LH Matt Thornton
RH Bobby Jenks
Aside from Jenks, who's emerged as an elite closer (he retired a record 41 batters in a row at one point last year), this unit was awful last year. Linebrink, who comes in from the NL, brings some stability, and Dotel is an upgrade as well. Wasserman came up mid-season and pitched well.
The others are big question marks.
The White Sox still have a dangerous middle of the order, and Cabrera is a great table-setter to put in front of them. If Floyd and Danks step up, the rotation would be pretty good, and if the bullpen help makes a difference, suddenly the Sox would have the look of a contender.
But my guess is the back end of the rotation will struggle, which would in turn make the lack of depth in the bullpen more of an issue.
And while I like Cabrera and Swisher, I wonder how much the veteran hitters have left.
Also, Ozzie Guillen is somewhat of a crazy person. That's an X-factor.
Chicago White Sox
Manager: Ozzie Guillen
Lineup: C+
Rotation: C
Bullpen: C-
Bench: C+
Defense: C+
2008 Prediction: 75-87, 4th in AL Central
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