Monday, March 24, 2008

Nathan deal close: Punto on his way out?

*Opening day is on the clock, as the Twins host Torii Hunter and the Angels a week from today. That means I plan to actually keep this place updated this week with a look at each team in the AL Central, and my predictions.

That will begin Tuesday.
Today, a couple jottings as spring training winds down.

*The Twins are apparently closing in on a four-year extension for Joe Nathan.
On the surface, it's hard not to be excited about that. The Twins have already lost Hunter and Johan Santana, and the signing of Nathan, on the heels of extensions for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer is another sign that just because the Twins didn't pay Hunter and Santana doesn't mean they're averse to paying marquee players.

Nathan is one of the top three closers in the game, with Jonathan Papelbon and JJ Putz being the other two in my opinion.
Since taking over as the Twins closer, Nathan has saved 160 games in 174 chances, a startling 92 percent success rate.
In 282.1 innings as a Twin, he's struck out 355 batters and allowed just 186 hits, with a 1.94 ERA.
He's 33, and with an athletic, 6-4 frame, likely has another half-dozen good years left.
So there's certainly nothing wrong with having a guy like that around for a few more years.

But I still question whether or not it's the best thing for the Twins to do. Reportedly he'll be paid $11 million a year (a bargain for a player of his caliber - he could've got a lot more elsewhere). He's easily worth that, unless you're talking about a team with a limited payroll and plenty of other options to fill the closer's roll. The Twins, of course, fit both of those qualifications. Pat Neshek, Boof Bonser and, depending on his health, Francisco Liriano, would all likely be very good closers, while Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon and Matt Guerrier could all probably do a decent job, too.

$11 million dollars can be 12 to 15 percent of the Twins payroll. Is it a good idea to use 12 percent of the payroll on a guy who plays in 75 innings a year?
Especially when there's a chance that the Twins won't be able to compete for the AL Central title for the next two years?
But hey, if the best closer in baseball is staying for another four years, I'm not going to complain.

*Just when the Twins seemed to be reconsidering the idea of Liriano beginning the season either in Triple-A or extended spring training in Ft. Myers, the guy went and threw 4 hitless innings against Baltimore on Sunday, fanning five and hitting 94-mph on the gun. That probably increases his chances of making the rotation. Scott Baker could still come back in time from his sore back to make the team as well.
Phil Humber threw two more scoreless innings to lower his spring ERA to 1.29, but if Baker and Liriano both make the rotation, Humber probably goes back to Triple-A.
Glen Perkins was cut (he had a 7.50 ERA), meaning Brian Bass probably gets the last spot in the 'pen. Bass is a 26-year old righthanded swingman who the Twins seem to think deserves his chance. By keeping him, though, Dennys Reyes is the only lefty in the pen. I'm OK with that. I prefer keeping the best 11 or 12 guys, regardless of what arm they throw with.

*Garrett Jones cleared waivers and will go to Triple-A, and infielder Matt Tolbert appears to have taken the lead in the race for the last bench spot. Brian Buscher has been in a huge slump, and though the Twins obviously wanted him to win the job, they appear ready to go with Tolbert, who can play SS, something Buscher can't do.
If they do keep Tolbert, does that mean they'd consider releasing Nick Punto? It's hard to think so (he's guaranteed $2.4 million this year), but even Ron Gardenhire has been noticeably quiet in regards to Little Nicky lately. Punto went 0-4 Sunday, lowering his spring hitting line to .139/.194/.205.
That is awful. Totally awful, even for Punto, and I think even Gardy is running out of patience. He keeps hitting weak pop ups and 260-foot outfield flies, and doesn't seem to have a lot of confidence either (understandably).
If nothing else, he seems destined for the Luis Rodriguez role, as in the backup utility guy who never plays, and is released at the end of the year.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I guess I've yet to see Sweet Nicky Punto hit a 260 ft bomb. I did see him yesterday, with the bases loaded, and a 2-0 count pop a c**k shot fastball right up to the orioles first basemen. All told, I think the ball went roughly 65 feet.

Anonymous said...

Twins cut Span and Pridie this morning - Gomez wins the CF job.