OK, I kinda like this guy

I'm far from convinced that this is how it's going to be regularly, but man, Carlos Gomez can do some things. He was by far the most exciting player on the field Monday night as the Twins opened the season with a 3-2 win over the Angels.
I'm still doubtful about his ability to get on base, but if he can steal bases like that, and throw in some XBH, he might work out in the leadoff spot after all.

Then again, it's one game. He could go 0-4 with 3 Ks tonight.

*Livan. WTF. You are not that good. I simply refuse to believe it. But that was a pretty good start.
*Brendan Harris had two hits, which probably just made Gardy mad. Can't start Punto yet.
*Craig Monroe starting at DH, against a righty. Why? Why, why, why, why, why, why? You are an idiot, Ron Gardenhire.
*Pat Neshek made Vlad Guerrero his bitch. And even though Neshek doesn't like me, I enjoyed it.
*Think Joe Nathan has seen Torii Hunter hit before? Nothing but cutters and sliders low and away.
*Hey Justin Morneau - any day now, dude.

AL Central Preview: Minnesota Twins

This year marks the first time since 2002 that I haven't gone with the Twins as my pick to win the AL Central, and there are a myriad of reasons for that.
The rotation could be bad. The lineup should be better, but that doesn't mean it will be. And if it's not, that would really hurt because they've already sacrificed some defense in trying to improve the offense.
And the formidable teams that Cleveland and Detroit have put together are the biggest factors of all. While the unbalanced schedule played a huge role in the Twins winning three straight AL Central crowns from 2002-2004 (the '03 team in particular was fairly weak) it will make things that much harder on them now, as they'll play the bulk of their games against Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Kansas City (Makes you realize just how much more impressive their '06 division title was than any of the other three).

In the past you could say something like, "Well, if everything goes right, and this happens and this happens and that happens, then they have a shot."
That's basically what happened in '06.
But this year, I think even if almost everything went right for the Twins, they'd still finish in third place. 85-88 wins seems like an absolute best case scenario.
And on the flip side, while I certainly don't expect this team to be bad, it could be. If enough things went wrong, 90 losses or more could be possible.

The Lineup
CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The Bench
C Mike Redmond
OF Monroe/Kubel
IF Nick Punto
IF Matt Tolbert

The biggest problem I have with this lineup is Gomez. I certainly liked what I saw from him in spring training from a tools/potential standpoint, but I'd be surprised if he posted better than a .300 OBP, and that's horrible from anywhere in the lineup, let alone the leadoff spot. I would not be surprised if Gomez made at least one trip back to Triple-A this year.
And in the 9-hole, Adam Everett will be doing well if he can hit .250 with a .300 OBP. He might be able to hit 6 or 7 homers - he once hit 11.
In between, however, I really like this lineup. I never liked Joe Mauer in the 3-hole, so it's great to see him batting second. He's ideal for that spot, especially since he's more of a groundball/line drive-hitter. Mauer was hurt for much of last year, and if he can stay healthy, he would be a great table-setter for what should be a solid middle.
And Mauer isn't the only one looking to bounce back, and/or take a step up. Morneau and Cuddyer both slumped last year, while Kubel and Young appear to be on the cusp of realizing their potential. I don't think Kubel is ever going to be the five-star player he was occasionally hyped as, but he very well could be a Shane Mack-type of contributor. Young could put up Kirby Puckett numbers eventually, but my guess is that's at least another year away.
I'm trying to keep an open mind about Monroe, but if he plays with any regularity against RHP, Ron Gardenhire should be shot.
Lamb and Harris aren't major difference makers, but they represent exactly the kind of offensive upgrades the Twins should've been making the last few years. You don't need to go out and land a superstar all the time. If they can both provide .275/.340/.430 numbers or thereabouts, it would make a big difference in a lineup that last year routinely featured Luis Castillo, Jason Tyner and Nick Punto at the same time.

The Ro'
RH Livan Hernandez
RH Boof Bonser
RH Scott Baker
RH Kevin Slowey
RH Nick Blackburn/LH Francisco Liriano

The 'pen
RH Matt Guerrier
RH Juan Rincon
RH Jesse Crain
RH Brian Bass
RH Pat Neshek
LH Dennys Reyes
RH Joe Nathan

The rotation is the Twins' weakness, without question. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be bad, but it would be something close to a miracle if it was better than league average.
I think the best way to break it down is one by one.
-Hernandez
He's durable, and Gardy and Rick Anderson have always valued veterans. I get a sense that the reason for that is more for what those veterans will do for the young guys from a mentorship role than what they'll do for the team's win/loss record.
Hernandez's ERA is likely to be north of 5. The question is whether or not he'll keep his spot in the rotation all year long.
-Bonser
Kind of a forgotten man, people seem to forget that he had an excellent rookie year, and pitched quite well in the first half of last season before breaking down. He lost 30 pounds, and while I'm not going to automatically assume that means he'll be better, I do think it's possible that Boof could provide 210 innings with an ERA in the low 4s or better.
-Baker
He really turned a corner last year, and has the stuff to make you think it's for real. His durability might be a question, but if healthy, he could work 200 innings with an ERA in the mid to high 3s.
-Slowey, Blackburn, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, etc.
This is where the seperation occurs. It's not a sure thing that even Boof or Baker will pitch well this year, and it's just flat out unlikely that Slowey, Blackburn and another host of rookies waiting in the minors are ready to turn the corner this year the way Baker has and Boof almost has.
Slowey has the best chance of that group to make a difference, but even he is probably due for another 100 innings of getting his brains beat in before he figures it out (for the record, I do think he will figure it out eventually).
-Liriano
You could call him the wild card of the group, but I think we can be fairly certain that he's not going to be anything close to his 2006 self this year. 130-160 innings would be a big positive, no matter what his ERA is.

The bullpen will be the strength of the team once again, and it'll likely be better than it was last year. Crain's return will be a big boost to the depth, ensuring that Neshek doesn't have to be so badly overused. Reyes wasn't healthy for most of last year, and guys like Carmen Cali were awful in his place. Rincon isn't what he once was, but he likely won't be asked to pitch in as many big spots as he used to.
Guerrier and Neshek are among the best in the business. So is that Nathan guy.

Last year the Twins had a decent rotation and a bad offense. This year those things should be flip-flopped, so for the most part I think they cancel each other out and the record ends up pretty close to what it was last year. With a healthier Mauer, a healthier bullpen, and slight improvement over last year from Morneau, Cuddyer, Young and Kubel, the Twins have just enough to nudge themselves over .500.
Minnesota Twins
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
Lineup: B
Rotation: C-
Bullpen: A
Bench: B-
Defense: B
2008 Prediction: 82-80, 3rd in AL Central

And the rest of the league....
AL West
1. Anaheim
2. Seattle
3. Oakland
4. Texas

AL Central
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland (WC)
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
5. Kansas City

AL East
1. Boston
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

NL West
1. Arizona
2. Colorado (WC)
3. Los Angeles
4. San Diego
5. San Francisco

NL Central
1. Chicago
2. Milwaukee
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. St. Louis
6. Houston

NL East
1. New York
2. Atlanta
3. Philadelphia
4. Washington
5. Florida

AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez
NL MVP: David Wright
AL CY: Jered Weaver
NL CY: Johan Santana
AL ROY: Daric Barton
NL ROY: Kosuke Fukudome

AL Central Preview: Detroit Tigers

God dammit.

Son of a bitch.

Aw, shit.

You gotta be kiddin' me.

Fuck.

Suck my ass, Dombrowski.

Those were just some of the things that went through the minds of Twins, White Sox and Indians fans, not to mention Red Sox, Yankees, Angels and Mariners fans, too, when the Detroit Tigers swapped their farm system for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, formerly of the Florida Marlins.

The Tigers already had a pretty good team, one that went to the World Series in 2006 and appeared headed there again in '07 before faltering in the second half. But rather than sit still and hope things could right themselves on their own, they did what fans love and GMs are generally afraid to do. They literally bet the farm to make a run at a World Series.

And in fairness, it's not like they bet the farm to make one run. While the Tigers do have some veterans getting up there in years, they also have some young studs, and with an owner willing to spend, there's no reason to think they won't be able to fill holes in free agency over the next few years to keep this team in contention for the foreseeable future.

The lineup is loaded. The rotation isn't as good as Cleveland's, but it's still pretty good. The bullpen is hurting right now due to injuries, but it's a long season. Assuming they eventually get healthy, that unit will be a strength.

The Tigers did clean out their farm system to get Cabrera and Willis, but you know what? Good for them. Seriously, even as a Twins fan, I'm happy to see it. It's about time someone went ahead and tried to win now. At some point you have to cash in your chips and go for it. Good for the Tigers for having the balls to do it. As a fan, I can't imagine being disappointed, no matter how good the prospects are that went to Florida (and they were pretty good).

Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
3B Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
1B Carlos Guillen
C Ivan Rodriguez
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Jacque Jones

Bench
IF/C Brandon Inge
OF Marcus Thames
OF Ryan Rayburn
IF Ramon Santiago
OF Timo Perez
OF Brent Clevlen

I'm not exactly sure that's the order Jimmy Leyland will go with, but what does it matter? You could pull those 9 names out of a hat and come up with a damn good lineup.
Granderson will open the season on the DL, but when healthy, he's a guy who slugs .500 out of the leadoff spot. Polanco is the most underrated player in baseball (he hit .341 last year!).
Then you've got Magglio (.363, won the batting title), Cabrera (otherwise known as the A-Rod of the NL) , Sheffield and Guillen (.296, 21, 102) in the middle, with I-Rod, Renteria (.332) and Jacque rounding out the bottom.
Seriously, their 7-8-9 could be 1-2-3 for many teams.

Rotation
RH Justin Verlander
LH Dontrelle Willis
RH Jeremy Bonderman
LH Nate Robertson
LH Kenny Rogers

Again, I don't know if this is the order they'll go in. But if Rogers is healthy and Willis finds his form (both fairly big ifs) this is a terrific rotation. Verlander is a legit ace, but he is the only sure thing.
I've given up on Bonderman ever being a true ace. He's too much of a mental midget. But he's pretty good for a 3rd or 4th starter. Robertson woke up last year after a terrific '06, but again, you could do a lot worse in the back end of the rotation.
I think a lot of how well Detroit does this year will come down to how well Rogers and Willis throw.
Willis won 22 games in '05 as a 24-year old. The last two years have been a struggle, but you get the feeling he'll find his game now that he's on a team as loaded as these guys are. I wouldn't blame Tiger fans for being nervous about a guy who had a 5.17 ERA in the NL last year, but I'm predicting a solid year from the D-Train.
Rogers I'm less sure of, as his fastball barely cracks 80 these days. But he knows how to pitch. If he's healthy I don't think 180 innings of 4.30 ball are out of the question, and with this lineup, that'd be just fine.

Bullpen
RH Joel Zumaya
RH Fernando Rodney
RH Todd Jones
LH Bobby Seay
RH Zach Miner
RH Jason Grilli
LH Tim Byrdak

Zumaya and Rodney are both expected to open the year on the DL, and if they're out for a prolonged stretch, that will make it tough for the Tigers to hold off Cleveland. Seay and Byrdak both pitched very well last year, as did Miner. As a Twins fan, I'm usually happy to see Grilli brought into a game.
Jones, as I wrote yesterday, is a decent closer. He doesn't have very good stuff, and you probably want to give him at least at 2-run lead to work with, but he usually finds a way to get it done. He won't be as good, however, without Zumaya and Rodney in front of him.

This is one of the best lineups I've ever seen. And while the rotation and bullpen both have questions, my prediction is that the Tigers are going to come out ahead in both of those areas. If I'm wrong and they don't, the Indians probably take the Central.

Detroit Tigers
Manager: Jim Leyland
Lineup: A+
Rotation: B+
Bullpen: B
Bench: A-
Defense: A-
2008 Prediction: 98-64, 1st in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Cleveland Indians

The Indians should've been in the World Series last year, but they choked, something teams are prone to do when they play the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.
They're bringing back pretty much the exact same roster from a year ago, and even though the Tigers loaded up this off-season, the Indians seem to still be the pick in the AL Central.

I think they're gonna be pretty good, a playoff team in fact. But I don't think they're better than the Tigers.

Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Casey Blake
LF David Delluci/Jason Michaels
RF Franklin Gutierrez

Bench
C Kelly Shoppach
OF Delluci/Michaels
IF Josh Barfield
IF Jamey Carroll
IF Andy Marte
OF Shin-Soo Choo

The Indians won 96 games last year, even while Hafner slumped all season, and Sizemore failed to live up to the ridiculous Willie Mays comparisons.
I would fully expect Hafner, who's still only 30, to bounce back with a big year, and while I'm not of the opinon that Sizemore is ever going to be as good as Peter Gammons and Tom Verducci think he is, the guy is the best leadoff hitter in the game.
What I like about the Indians is their collection of second-tier talent.
Last year, many people (myself included) picked the Twins to win because they had such a strong collection of superstars (Hunter, Mauer, Nathan, Santana, Morneau). But one thing we should be learning is that having depth and balance is better than having several stars and several scrubs.

Guys like Ryan Garko, Casey Blake, Jhonny Peralta and Franklin Gutierrez are not stars, and they never will be. But Hafner, Martinez and Sizemore are. You put a core of superstars with an even bigger core of good-not-great players, and you've got a winner.

The only knock on this lineup is the defense. Sizemore is terrific in center, but the rest of them range from bad to average. If I were them I'd switch Cabrera and Peralta.

Rotation
LH CC Sabathia
RH Fausto Carmona
RH Jake Westbrook
RH Paul Byrd
RH Cliff Lee

This is the best rotation in the division. Sabathia appears to have finally harnessed his game, and that paid off in a Cy Young award. Carmona could just as easily have won it. They both won 19 games last year.
Westbrook and Byrd are average middle of the rotation guys, but when you have a pair of aces at the top, that's all you need. Still, I have my doubts about whether Carmona can repeat his performance from last year. The league might start to figure him out to some degree.
Lee had a terrible year last year, but there's not a major need for him to bounce back, because Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers are both ready to step in when needed.

Bullpen
RH Rafael Betancourt
LH Rafael Perez
LH Aaron Fultz
RH Tom Mastny
RH Jensen Lewis
RH Masahide Kobayashi
RH Joe Borowski

Borowski is, like Detroit's Todd Jones, not a very good pitcher. But they work as closers because they have good setup men in front of them, and because their veteran savvy when the game is on the line makes up for mediocre stuff.
Betancourt is maybe the best setup man in baseball, and the rest of the 'pen, a big weakness in '06, has also shaped up into a pretty good unit.

The Indians are going to be good again. The good news for Twins fans is that it is starting to look like this will be Sabathia's last year in Cleveland. With the injuries to Boston's pitching staff I think it's possible that the two best teams in the AL are both in the Central, and I expect them both to make the playoffs. Flip a coin. I like Detroit. But more on them tomorrow.

Cleveland Indians
Manager: Eric Wedge
Lineup: B+
Rotation: A
Bullpen: A-
Bench: B
Defense: C
2008 Prediction: 95-67, 2nd in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Chicago White Sox

Last year, Baseball Prospectus, a stat-nerd organization (and I mean that in a good way) predicted the White Sox, who were two years removed from winning the World Series and had won 90 games the previous year, would go 72-90.
Bad sportswriters who hate advanced statistics seized on that projection as evidence of how stupid and phony all the number crunching "Moneyballistas" really are, but then something happened.

The Sox went 72-90. Right on the button.

I wrote before the season that they were "on their way down", but still predicted they'd win 86 games. But, thanks to a horrendous offense, and age catching up to several veterans, they sucked.
This year, Baseball Prospectus has them going 77-85.

I'd say that seems about right. The Sox would be better off rebuilding, maybe not a total overhaul but at least to the degree the Twins are. Instead, GM Ken Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen are being bullheaded, and think they can compete with the Tigers and Indians.
They can't. In fact, I think they'll struggle to win more games than the Twins and Royals (it's a 3-team race for third...or last, depending on your point of view).

Lineup
SS Orlando Cabrera
CF Nick Swisher
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
C AJ Pierzynski
3B Joe Crede
LF Carlos Quentin/Brian Anderson
2B Juan Uribe

Bench
IF Alexei Ramirez
IF Pablo Ozuna
IF Danny Richar
OF Jerry Owens
C Toby Hall

Cabrera is a terrific pickup at SS. He's a Gold Glover and a .300 hitter with pop. Swisher had a bit of a down year last year, but is still a terrific on-base guy with good power. Putting him in CF could be an adventure, though.
Dye and Konerko slumped a little last year, which is what everyone blames the Sox's struggles on, but they weren't actually all that bad, and neither was Thome. So I don't really understand all these claims that those three are going to bounce back.
Dye hit .254 with 28 homers, after hitting .315 with 44 homers in '06.
I'm sorry, but I'm thinking .254-28 is more typical for Dye than .315-44.
Crede is something of a wild card coming back from an injury, but Josh Fields, who hit 23 homers in 100 games last year, is waiting in the minors (who sends a guy who hit 23 homers to the minors?)
AJ is still a great competitor, but he's average defensively and average at the plate.
The bottom of their order could be pretty bad.

Rotation
LH Mark Buehrle
RH Javier Vazquez
RH Jose Contreras
LH John Danks
RH Gavin Floyd

I thought the Sox could and should trade Buehrle when they had the chance, but he's still only 29, and will give them a legit ace for another few years, whether they're competing or rebuilding.
Vazquez is a solid 2, but after that it gets real dicey. Floyd and Danks are highly regarded youngsters, but both got roughed up last year. I'm thinking Contreras might be washed up.

Bullpen
RH Scott Linebrink
RH Octavio Dotel
RH Mike MacDougal
RH Ehren Wasserman
RH Nick Masset
LH Boone Logan
LH Matt Thornton
RH Bobby Jenks

Aside from Jenks, who's emerged as an elite closer (he retired a record 41 batters in a row at one point last year), this unit was awful last year. Linebrink, who comes in from the NL, brings some stability, and Dotel is an upgrade as well. Wasserman came up mid-season and pitched well.
The others are big question marks.

The White Sox still have a dangerous middle of the order, and Cabrera is a great table-setter to put in front of them. If Floyd and Danks step up, the rotation would be pretty good, and if the bullpen help makes a difference, suddenly the Sox would have the look of a contender.

But my guess is the back end of the rotation will struggle, which would in turn make the lack of depth in the bullpen more of an issue.
And while I like Cabrera and Swisher, I wonder how much the veteran hitters have left.
Also, Ozzie Guillen is somewhat of a crazy person. That's an X-factor.

Chicago White Sox
Manager: Ozzie Guillen
Lineup: C+
Rotation: C
Bullpen: C-
Bench: C+
Defense: C+
2008 Prediction: 75-87, 4th in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Kansas City Royals

The Royals ended a three-year run of 100-loss seasons last year, going 69-93, just one game back of the White Sox for 4th place in the Central.
That's just one reason things are looking up for a team that, aside from the fluke 83-win team of 2003, hasn't contended since the George Brett-Mark Gubicza-Brett Saberhagen days.
New GM Dayton Moore is highly regarded around the league, and count me as one of many who are intrigued by their hiring of Trey Hillman of the Japanese League as their manager.
The signing of Gil Meche to a 5-year, $55 million deal before last season seemed ridiculous at the time, but Meche worked 216 innings and posted a 3.67 ERA, and the market has skyrocketed to where $11 million is practically a bargain for a guy with a sub-4 ERA who can work 200 innings.

In addition, the Royals have finally started to develop a core of solid young players, with Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Mark Teahan the most prominent among them.
The Royals made a push for Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones this off-season, and while they were turned away, it shows that, at the very least, they are starting to take themselves seriously, even if high-priced free agents aren't (they did sign OF Jose Guillen to a 3-year, $36 million deal).

All that said, I'm still not convinced this is a team ready to move out of the cellar.

Yet.

At many positions, they've merely gone from bad to mediocre (SS, 1B, CF, C), and the pitching still has some questions.

Lineup
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
RF Mark Teahen
LF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena

Bench
C Miguel Olivo
IF Esteban German
IF Alberto Callaspo
OF Joey Gathright
IF Ryan Shealy

DeJesus seems to have plateaued as a league-average CF (at best), while Grudzielanek has to age eventually. Teahen hit only 7 homers in 544 ABs last year after hitting 18 the previous year.
Guillen will open the season serving a 15-game steroid suspension, but offers 25-homer power and a great outfield arm when he returns.
Butler and Gordon are big-time prospects. Gordon was overmatched early last year, but the Royals resisted the urge to send him down, and he eventually played his way into a groove, finishing the year at .247 with 15 homers, 14 steals and 36 doubles. He's only 24, and will only get better. Probably a lot better.
Butler has no position, but the not-yet 22-year old slugger batted .292 with 8 homers and 52 RBIs in half a season with the Royals last year. He's a potential .320-30-120 guy.
Buck is an average catcher, and while Pena held his own last year at SS, his days in that spot are numbered with No. 1 pick Mike Moustakas waiting in the wings.

Rotation
RH Gil Meche
RH Brian Bannister
RH Zack Greinke
LH Jorge De La Rosa
RH Kyle Davies/RH Leo Nunez/RH Luke Hochevar

Meche was a legitimate ace last year, while Bannister (12-9, 3.87) emerged as a strong No. 2. I'd be surprised if either of them were able to duplicate their numbers this year, however. Greinke (7-7, 3.69) has a bigger upside than both of them.
De La Rosa (8-12, 5.82) got lit up last year, while the 5th starter spot is a hole. Hochevar, the team's top pitching prospect, will be there before long (he'll open the season in the minors).

Bullpen
LH Ron Mahay
LH Jimmy Gobble
RH Yasuhiko Yabuta
RH Joel Peralta
RH Joakim Soria
LH Neal Musser
RH John Bale

Soria (2.48, 17 saves) was a big surprise last year, while Yabuta brings a solid track record from Japan. Mahay and Gobble were both excellent last year, and Peralta was good, too. Musser and Bale were decent. This is actually a pretty good 'pen.

The Royals have done a good job of digging themselves out of a hole by assembling quality young talent through the amateur and Rule V drafts while adding modestly priced but effective veterans and role players (the latter being something I wish the Twins did better). They're a lot better than they were.
But other than Gordon and Butler, most of them don't project to be truly high level players.
This team is heading in the right direction, but there's still work to do.

Kansas City Royals
Manager: Trey Hillman
Lineup: C-
Rotation: C
Bullpen: B
Bench: C
Defense: B 2008 Prediction: 70-92, 5th in AL Central

Nathan deal close: Punto on his way out?

*Opening day is on the clock, as the Twins host Torii Hunter and the Angels a week from today. That means I plan to actually keep this place updated this week with a look at each team in the AL Central, and my predictions.

That will begin Tuesday.
Today, a couple jottings as spring training winds down.

*The Twins are apparently closing in on a four-year extension for Joe Nathan.
On the surface, it's hard not to be excited about that. The Twins have already lost Hunter and Johan Santana, and the signing of Nathan, on the heels of extensions for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer is another sign that just because the Twins didn't pay Hunter and Santana doesn't mean they're averse to paying marquee players.

Nathan is one of the top three closers in the game, with Jonathan Papelbon and JJ Putz being the other two in my opinion.
Since taking over as the Twins closer, Nathan has saved 160 games in 174 chances, a startling 92 percent success rate.
In 282.1 innings as a Twin, he's struck out 355 batters and allowed just 186 hits, with a 1.94 ERA.
He's 33, and with an athletic, 6-4 frame, likely has another half-dozen good years left.
So there's certainly nothing wrong with having a guy like that around for a few more years.

But I still question whether or not it's the best thing for the Twins to do. Reportedly he'll be paid $11 million a year (a bargain for a player of his caliber - he could've got a lot more elsewhere). He's easily worth that, unless you're talking about a team with a limited payroll and plenty of other options to fill the closer's roll. The Twins, of course, fit both of those qualifications. Pat Neshek, Boof Bonser and, depending on his health, Francisco Liriano, would all likely be very good closers, while Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon and Matt Guerrier could all probably do a decent job, too.

$11 million dollars can be 12 to 15 percent of the Twins payroll. Is it a good idea to use 12 percent of the payroll on a guy who plays in 75 innings a year?
Especially when there's a chance that the Twins won't be able to compete for the AL Central title for the next two years?
But hey, if the best closer in baseball is staying for another four years, I'm not going to complain.

*Just when the Twins seemed to be reconsidering the idea of Liriano beginning the season either in Triple-A or extended spring training in Ft. Myers, the guy went and threw 4 hitless innings against Baltimore on Sunday, fanning five and hitting 94-mph on the gun. That probably increases his chances of making the rotation. Scott Baker could still come back in time from his sore back to make the team as well.
Phil Humber threw two more scoreless innings to lower his spring ERA to 1.29, but if Baker and Liriano both make the rotation, Humber probably goes back to Triple-A.
Glen Perkins was cut (he had a 7.50 ERA), meaning Brian Bass probably gets the last spot in the 'pen. Bass is a 26-year old righthanded swingman who the Twins seem to think deserves his chance. By keeping him, though, Dennys Reyes is the only lefty in the pen. I'm OK with that. I prefer keeping the best 11 or 12 guys, regardless of what arm they throw with.

*Garrett Jones cleared waivers and will go to Triple-A, and infielder Matt Tolbert appears to have taken the lead in the race for the last bench spot. Brian Buscher has been in a huge slump, and though the Twins obviously wanted him to win the job, they appear ready to go with Tolbert, who can play SS, something Buscher can't do.
If they do keep Tolbert, does that mean they'd consider releasing Nick Punto? It's hard to think so (he's guaranteed $2.4 million this year), but even Ron Gardenhire has been noticeably quiet in regards to Little Nicky lately. Punto went 0-4 Sunday, lowering his spring hitting line to .139/.194/.205.
That is awful. Totally awful, even for Punto, and I think even Gardy is running out of patience. He keeps hitting weak pop ups and 260-foot outfield flies, and doesn't seem to have a lot of confidence either (understandably).
If nothing else, he seems destined for the Luis Rodriguez role, as in the backup utility guy who never plays, and is released at the end of the year.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

We're less than two weeks away, and here's how things are shaping up in Ft. Myers.

The Good:
Craig Monroe still isn't worth $3.8 million, but if his .333/.367/.630 hitting line is any indication, he may have something left in the tank.
Delmon Young has not thrown any equipment at any umpires, and he's hit .361/.395/.500
Joe Mauer looks ready to make a run at the MVP award (.458/.548/.833).
Mike Lamb has actually had decent reviews for his defensive work so far, while posting a .381/.435/.524 line at the plate. I have a hunch he might put up better numbers at 3rd than Nick Punto did last year.
Randy Ruiz has pretty much no shot at making the team, but he's been the best hitter on the team through spring, hitting .407/.448/.704. Players like him and Jon Knott (.250/.250/.542) are actually great to have. They provide depth, and it's nice to have people available that are actually capable of contributing when someone goes down.
Meanwhile, Denard Span, the minor leaguer everyone seems to hate, has had a good spring, and might open the season as the starting CF. Thanks to improved patience at the plate, he's hitting .290/.421/.419. I still think he'll be somewhat over matched by big league pitching, but if he can draw a walk here and there and use his speed, that would be a start.
Carlos Gomez is 8 for 8 stealing bases, and has two doubles, two triples and a homer. But his OBP is a mere .267.
I really don't have any idea who has the upper hand in the CF race.

There have been some positive developments on the mound, too.
Phil Humber has worked 12 innings, allowing just 8 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks with 7 Ks.
Brian Bass has allowed two runs in 10.1 innings with 8 Ks and 2 walks.
Dennys Reyes has worked 7 innings, allowing 7 hits and 1 walk and 7 Ks.
Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek have been unhittable as usual.
Boof has allowed only 3 runs in 9 innings, but has walked 5.


The Bad:
Punto has been Punto. He's hitting .172/.250/.241.
Unfortunately, Brendan Harris, his competition for the 2B job, is hitting .176/.222/.265, and has been unimpressive in the field. Justin Morneau has a .359 SLG%.
Brian Buscher opened camp by hitting line drives all over the place, but is probably headed back to Rochester, as his hitting line has plummeted to .148/.258/.259.
Matt Guerrier has a 6.43 ERA. Juan Rincon has walked 6 batters in 6 innings.
Kevin Slowey had 13 Ks in 10 innings, but has allowed 17 hits, and has a 5.94 ERA. Glen Perkins has a 5.43 ERA, and only 6 Ks in 11 innnings.

The Ugly:
Livan Hernandez has worked 13 innings and allowed 15 runs on 24 hits.
Brian Duensing was thought to be a darkhorse candidate for the rotation, but was one of the first cuts after posting a 19.29 ERA.
Randy Keisler, a veteran lefty, had an outside shot to make the team as a second lefty out of the pen, and while his 4.82 ERA isn't terrible, he has walked 8 in 9 innings.
Garrett Jones, who seems to have a leg up on the final roster spot, hit a monstrous homerun off Joba Chamberlain in a nationally televised game two weeks ago, but in his other 24 at-bats, he's managed 3 singles, a double and 9 Ks.

The Twins Rotation is Going to be Bad

Last year the Twins were supposed to be unable to compete because of their pitching staff. The offense would be as strong as ever, but the pitching would stink. At least that's what many thought (including myself, to some degree).

But the pitchers put together a 4.15 team ERA, fourth-best in the AL, even with Johan Santana having an off year.
And the offense, aside from Torii Hunter - and for brief periods Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel - performed as though each hitter was coming to the plate with female anatomy.

And the Twins went 79-83.

Here's my early hunch on how things are going to go this year: The win total will be similar. If enough things go wrong, they could be a 70-win team. If they get some breaks, they could be an 85-win team. But contention is a near impossibility. But my guess is that how they get to 75-80 wins will be the opposite of how they did it last year.

The offense has a chance to be pretty good. I love Joe Mauer in the 2-hole (huh huh, see what I did there), and I think he, Morneau and Michael Cuddyer are all safe bets to rebound somewhat this year. I like Delmon Young. I like Jason Kubel. I like Mike Lamb and Brendan Harris, whom Gardy is still calling 'Brandon'.

But the pitching looks like it's going to be a struggle.
Francisco Liriano doesn't look too sharp. That's fine, by the way, because his health is way more important at this point than his effectiveness. As long as he's reporting no pain in his elbow, I won't care if his ERA is 6. For awhile anyway.

Livan Hernandez looks like he may be Sidney Ponson revisited. He's been awful so far this spring (though Carlos Silva did the same thing last spring and then had a pretty good season).

Scott Baker, the likely "ace", may have to start the season on the DL.
Boof Bonser looks like the best starter right now.

The good news with Liriano and Baker both being questionable for the rotation for awhile is that Phil Humber, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey should all get an extended look. Slowey should probably be in the rotation anyway, as he's not likely to get any benefit from more time in the minors. It's time for him to learn how to get big league hitters out.
But Humber and Blackburn are likely to spend this year alternating between the league and Rochester. Might as well see what they got right now, to at least see how far along they are.

These guys are all pretty talented, as are several other arms in the system, so I'm probably being overly negative and a little dramatic. It's not like they're trotting out Roy Smith or Jose Parra.

But there's a chance that the opening day rotation is going to look like this:

Livan
Boof
Slowey
Humber
Blackburn

That's not terribly encouraging.

Deadspin Twins preview

This is the busiest time of year for me when it comes to the writing gig that actually pays my bills, so sorry that the updates have been sort of slow lately.
So for the second time this week, I'll direct you to a piece from Twins blog ace Aaron Gleeman.
Here's the preview he wrote for deadspin.

Mid-spring Notes

We got our first two looks at the '08 Twins this week, and I'm sure, like me, you were reminded of what a tremendous letdown spring training games are.

You've been waiting all winter for baseball, you're so excited to watch a game, and then you remember how boring spring training games are.
It's not so much that the starters don't play all the time, it's just that the games don't mean anything, so it's hard to get too worked up.

Having said that, a few thoughts.

*Francisco Liriano made this first start in a year and a half, and looked kind of fat. His fastball started out around 88-89, but moved into the 91-92 range in his second inning. Apparently his changeup, which he used to fan Manny Ramirez, was outstanding. That's good news.
His slider is a long ways away. That's to be expected, and the bigger question is probably not when the slider comes back, but what kind of toll it will take on his elbow when it does.
The Twins are working with him to lessen the recoil on his delivery (so his butt isn't facing the plate when he finishes), and they say they want him to throw around 10 sliders a game, as opposed to 30 or so.
That's fine for this year, but eventually he'll have to be able to throw more than 10 a game. He won't be as effective as he was if he's only throwing his best pitch once or twice an inning.

I'll say it again. The Twins aren't likely to compete this year, so no reason to push him. Skip his turn in the ro' once a month, or limit him to 75 pitches a game. The goal should be to have him ready for a full workload next year.

*Boof Light's results Sunday weren't great, but I liked what I saw. He seemed much more able to finish his pitches, which seemed to give him a good downward plane on his pitches that should mean he's better able to keep the ball down.

*Ron Gardenhire seems committed to batting Joe Mauer 2nd, and that makes me very, very happy. Mauer is an on-base guy, not a run producer (yet).
Michael Cuddyer will bat third, and while he's not an ideal 3-hole hitter, he has the right mixture of skills - a good OBP and some decent pop. Plus, it sets up a L-R-L-R-L with Mauer, Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, Delmon Young and either Mike Lamb or Jason Kubel.

*On the other hand, Gardy seems unconcerned with the free-swinging ways of Carlos Gomez and Young, saying this week he wants them to be aggressive at the plate.
Aggressive is fine, but swinging at everything only works if you're Kirby Puckett, Vlad Guerrero or Ichiro Suzuki.
If Young develops into a Vlad-style ripper, than I could care less if he ever walks. But if he never becomes more than a .280-25 homer guy, he wouldn't be that valuable with a .315 OBP.
And if Gomez is going to bat leadoff, it'd be nice if he could get on base at least 35 percent of the time. (Then again, the Twins won two World Series' with Dan Gladden OBP'ing about .305 in the leadoff spot. Go figure.)
On a related note, much-maligned Denard Span walked four times Sunday. He's been running his mouth all spring about how everyone is underestimating him, and so far no one seems to buy it. But if he can truly develop his on-base skills, maybe he still has a shot to be a quality major leaguer.

*Doug Mientkiewicz has already played 3B and RF for the Pirates this spring. So apparently the Pirates liked my idea of turning him into a utility guy. Also looks like Luis Rivas is going to make that team.

*The Brewers say they're going to bat their pitchers 8th this year, and have catcher Jason Kendall bat 9th. Their stat-heads ran some formulas and believe it will create another 25-30 runs over the course of the year. They say it's like having two leadoff hitters hitting in a row, and with pitchers usually making an out, I guess that sort of makes sense. But what if the 7 and 8 hitters both single with two outs? Now you have the pitcher up instead of Jason Kendall.
I'll be interested to see how it works out. Tony LaRussa did the same thing with the Cardinals a few years ago and eventually went back to hitting his pitcher last.

*For some seriously in-depth analysis of the Twins top prospects, check out Aaron Gleeman's list here.
Gives you a good idea of where the Twins organizational depth lies.

Centerfield, other stuff

The Twins say they have a competition for the centerfield job.
The candidates are Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie and Denard Span.
I've said since the Twins traded Johan Santana to the Mets that they should sign Kenny Lofton to hold down the job, but now I can kind of see why that isn't probably feasible.
It wouldn't leave enough at-bats for the three kids.

Gomez is the favorite. He's the Twins top offensive prospect, and has a lot of tools. He's being called the fastest player in the game, and has a rocket for an arm.

But, as we saw during Wednesday's win over the Yankees, he does not have that rocket arm under control. I still don't think he's ready.
The important thing for Gomez is that he plays everyday, either at Triple-A or with the Twins. I'd prefer he goes to Triple-A.

That would leave Pridie and Span. Pridie hasn't gotten much playing time so far, and I think that's because the Twins have a pretty good idea of what he can do. He looks like a guy who can be a Rich Becker-type player, coming off a very strong year in Triple-A.

Span has been a bust so far as a former 1st round pick. He says he's in it to win it, but I just don't buy it. He can't get on base.

My guess is Gomez wins the job, Pridie makes the team as a backup, and Span plays everyday in Triple-A. I'd rather have Pridie playing every day in Minnesota, Gomez playing everyday in Rochester, and Span learning how to become a bench player, because that's his future.

*Big, big homer for Garrett Jones off Joba Chamberlain. Jones is out of options, meaning he has to make the team or be exposed to waivers. I don't think Jones really deserves to make the team, and I don't think he will. I also don't think, especially after a bomb like that, that he'd clear waivers. So he's probably gone.

*Brian Buscher is another candidate for the bench, and he's been tearing it up so far. He's been scalding the ball, and has apparently been better in the field, too. He might get that 25th spot.

*Francisco Liriano to start Friday. Keep your fingers crossed.