He's gone. 93-44, with 1,381 strikeouts in 1,308 innings and a 3.22 ERA, Johan Santana is/was the greatest pitcher in Twins history, and he has been traded to the NY Mets for OF Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey.
Let's get this out of the way: It's an underwhelming haul for a two-time Cy Young award winner. If the offers from Boston and New York did indeed include names such as Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp, then the fact that the Twins ended up settling for a deal from the Mets that didn't even include their top prospect would make it pretty obvious that they held out too long.
Obviously, Bill Smith thought he could pit the Red Sox and Yankees against each other, but he should've known two things:
1 - The Sox didn't really need Santana, so the idea that they were going to clear the shelves of their minor league system for the right to give $130 million to a guy they didn't really need, was misguided. He should've recognized that the first offer(s), while not great, was as good as it would get.
2 - The Yankees definitely could use Santana. Their rotation does not have a true No. 1. Mike Mussina and Andy Pettite are washed up.
But in Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, they have three guys who could be very special. The smart play for the Yanks is to build around those three, using their money vault to fill in the other two spots in the rotation. They sensed this. Smith should've been prepared for that.
Here's another point, though: Santana wanted out, and he wanted out bad. He supposedly set a deadline for a deal for Tuesday. If the Twins didn't get a deal done by Tuesday, he'd report to spring training as a Twin and invoke his no-trade clause during the season.
I have a hunch that the Twins could've offered him $200 million over the next 8 years and he would've turned them down. Some have suggested he's never forgiven the team for keeping him in the bullpen for so long, or that he has never felt like the team has shown a willingness to make moves necessary for a World Series run.
Other reports say he wanted to be on the big stage in New York, and that he wanted to be in a city with a larger Latin American population (side note: Why is it OK for Latin players to say they want to be around more Latin guys? Justin Morneau can't say, 'I signed with the Twins because I wanted to be around other white guys'. Hell, these days even a black guy couldn't get away with saying that. So why is it OK when Omar Minaya and Arte Moreno openly admit to wanting to load their team with Latinos? Seems stupid)
So while many fans will undoubtedly try to blame this one on Carl Pohlad, and bitch about competitive balance and payrolls and etc., I don't think that really had much to do with this. Santana wanted to go. While part of me wants to wish him well in the NL, another part of me says good riddance and hopes he never wins more than 12 games. And wouldn't the Twins chances of getting out of the AL playoffs been slimmer if Santana was pitching for Boston or New York?
*It's bad enough that the Twins didn't land a Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury, but to make matters worse, they couldn't even get Fernando Martinez out of the Mets. Because Martinez is only 19 he's no sure thing, and there were some indications that the Twins actually preferred Gomez anyway. But it's still disappointing.
*As for the four guys the Twins end up with, they're all pretty good prospects, but they're all the kind of prospects the Twins already had. Mulvey and Humber are middle of the rotation guys, and the Twins probably have 10 guys at least (that's probably being modest), who project to be solid middle of the rotation major league starters. Guerra looks like he could be an ace, but at 19 years old, he's a long ways away and a lot could go wrong (which, incidentally, is what happened with Humber, who was the Mets top prospect before Tommy John surgery, and is now considered a No. 4 or No. 5).
I will say that after spending the entire day reading up on everything I could find about Gomez, I'm more e
ncouraged about him than I was in my earlier review of the Mets prospects. I still think Martinez has more potential, but one thing I didn't really consider - and should've - in evaluating Gomez's somewhat underwhelming minor league stats was that the Mets, by almost all accounts, rushed him through their system too fast.Gomez split last year between Triple-A in the majors, and while he didn't light it up, he did hold his own. He hit .232 in 58 games for the Mets, and .286 in 36 games in Triple-A. He was 21 at the time.
For a little perspective, consider that when Torii Hunter was 21, he spent the whole year in Double-A and was atrocious, hitting .231/.305/.338.
Gomez may not hit for power, but he will steal bases and he will be an outstanding defensive center fielder. He's supposedly even faster than Mets SS Jose Reyes. He'll just need to work on his on-base skills.
While I hope the Twins send him to Triple-A this year to do just that, I wouldn't be surprised if they make him their opening day CF.
What they should do is sign Kenny Lofton to a 1-year deal to hold the spot down so Gomez can get another year of seasoning.
I'm not thrilled with the deal, but by waiting as long as they did, this was the best they were gonna do. They waited last off-season, when they could've signed Johan and Torii, and now they waited again. And got burned again. At the very least, the Morneau and Michael Cuddyer signings suggest they're finally learning from those mistakes.
It's worth noting that nobody liked the Chuck Knoblauch trade at the time, and it ended up helping to turn the team's fortunes around.
If Gomez and Guerra reach their potential this will end up being a decent, maybe even great trade, and anything added by Mulvey and Humber would just be a bonus.
But there's always the chance it could be a stinker, too.
8 comments:
My take: I'm going to wait and see on this deal because the key component for Minnesota is so far away from the majors. But clearly, this is a deal its setting them up for moving into the new stadium in 2009.
Guerra is an OUTSTANDING prospect and would make a hell of a 1-2/lefty-righty punch with Liriano down the line. But the kid's 19 and hasn't pitched above A ball yet, so only time will tell on his development. He is, to me, the best pitcher and key piece that was brought up in any of the permutations of the trades with Boston, the Yanks or the Mets.
Humber has the makings of a No. 3 or 4 starter IMO. Hasn't been the same since his TJ surgery. He's not as polished as Lester or Kennedy or as talented as Hughes.
Gomez is kind of the wild card here. Mets rushed him to the big leagues and he had a good year in AAA last season, and he'll fill the void in CF with Hunter leaving. He's not Ellsbury by any stretch, but if they can get a Hunter-type offensive clone out of Gomez, it's good with those other two. If not, then Bill Smith should have been laid down the gauntlet that he wanted Fernando Martinez, because that dude's going to be a stud.
Mulvey I don't know much about. He's their fourth-best prospect according to Baseball America, but they say he projects as a No. 4 starter. That part makes no sense, because so do Humber, Boof Bonser and a myriad of other pitchers already in the Twins system.
I will say this much. If Liriano doesn't come back and look like he did before he blew his elbow out (and if he gets hurt again), this is a BIG mistake of a deal. Pitting the Yanks and BoSox clearly backfired on Smith. And he probably should have acted sooner if he wanted those guys from the Yankees and Red Sox so badly. But honestly, I didn't like any of those deals either. I really would have liked this one if Martinez was in there.
One more thought: If the Mets can't sign Santana, would that be a bigger collapse than their September blowup?
Since he's a Minnesota player and NOT going to Boston, this means the Mets won't be winning and championships with him. Remember, Minnesota players only win when they go to Boston. Like this weekend.
You know, minus the debacle last September, the Mets are one of the elite teams in the NL (not that that is saying much compared to the AL). However the one piece they were missing (and still are, until he signs) was an ace. Pedro is almost done and they didn't have him last year. Maine and Perez have potential and each won 15 games last year but they are not in the same league as Santana (not many pitchers are). I don't see much competition in the playoffs with Santana starting 2 games in a 7 game series. And don't forget the run support that the Mets will give that he never had in Minni. I don’t want to get ahead of myself but I can’t wait until October.
My main concern now is the unwritten rule that the Mets have of not signing pitchers to contracts longer than 5 years. Hopefully he will take 24 million a year for 5 years instead of less for 6 or 7.
The Twins definitely overplayed their hand. However, at this point, it was the best deal they could get, and it will set them up for future success (maybe not this year). Remember, they are opening a new stadium soon, and need to keep the team competitive in the future. Also, if you want the Pohlads to spend more money on the roster they need to make more money in the new stadium. Getting these prospects will make them better in 3 years than signing a 29 year old pitcher (who is the best, don’t get me wrong) and who is an injury away from being another Pedro (I need to bite my own tongue). Plus he would have eaten up the whole Twins roster budget.
Fuck the Braves and the Phillies.
Just the 2 cents of a Mets fan.
Jes a browsin’ my way through the ol’ referee rule book this mornin’ and thought this might be of interest:
Rule 461a: Your ref shirt is your gateway to the world. Wear it with pride and make sure it fits correctly. Now there are several schools of thought on this. Some say a ref shirt should fit snugly, a shirt that says, for better or worse with all its privileges and obligations: “I am a girl ref.” Others say the shirt should not fit so snugly. They think the shirt should say “I am a girl, yes, but I’m a ref. Not a girl ref.” Still others think the shirt should fit very loosely, saying “I am a ref of undetermined gender if you discount the fact that I’m smaller than the other refs and I make the wrong call, or see fit to ignore making the right call, more often than the refs who are obviously men.” Regardless of your own personal mindset on this, you’re going to have to be vigilant in assessing the proper fit of the ref shirt as it pertains to the personal message you want sent with your shirt. If history is a guide, and you know that it is, you know you’re going to get yelled at quite a bit. And what happens then? That’s right, you starting eating every meal like it’s the Last Supper to relieve the stress of coaches yelling at you. The options, then, are to buy new ref shirts as you put on weight, or to change the message you want to send as you inevitably, visa vis the weight gain, begin filling out what was a nice, loose-fitting ref shirt at the beginning of the season.
Mulvey has put up strong numbers so far, so I'm hoping maybe he could top out as a Radke-type pitcher.
But I think it's obvious that both he and Humber pretty much just add to the glut of pitchers in the system that project to be 3s, 4s and 5s.
On the other hand, Carlos Silva proved recently that a decent 3 or 4 can cost you $11 million a year, so there's nothing wrong with having a bunch of them ready to go.
In today's game, pitching is just so much more expensive than hitting that you're better off stocking pitching.
Having that stable of arms means the Twins are always in position to make a trade for a decent bat if they need one.
The question for me now is where this leaves Joe Nathan.
The Twins are not going to make the playoffs this year, so they don't need a closer, IMO.
Gardy has already gone on the offensive about keeping him, but paying a closer $15 million a year would be a bad move for the Twins.
If Torii was that bad at age 21, in AA, that does make me feel a little better about Gomez. Actually it makes me feel better about everyone in the entire system.
Nathan will probably be a deadline trade. Someone who is a "pitcher away" from the final push. Right now, who needs a closer and has the budget to sign him long term? I can't think of anyone, maybe an NL West team. But for 12-15 million per?
Can you say, "More Prospects"?
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