Mets?

While no one really totally believes them, the Yankees are saying they’re out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes. And if that’s the case the leverage with the Red Sox is certainly lessened, since many believe they only want Santana to keep him away from the Yanks in the first place. The Yankees kind of need Santana, the Red Sox don’t.

Why would Boston trade Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester when they can probably win the World Series and keep them?

That has led many to speculate that the New York Mets, long considered wannabe outsiders in the Santana dealings, may now be the favorite. The Mets are badly in need of starting pitching, and after last year's collapse at the end of the season, desperate to give the team a shot in the arm. The consensus seems to be that Mets GM Omar Minaya (guy in the suit) will find a way to get it done.

If that’s the case, it presents a good news-bad news scenario for the Twins.

The bad news is that they will not acquire any major league players in a deal with the Mets, they will receive prospects.

And I don’t need to tell you there have of course been several times in trade history when a bundle of prospects acquired in exchange for a proven veteran was unable to produce anything useful. It’s always risky.

The good news is that Santana would be going to the National League where the Twins would never have to see him, save for once every three or four years for interleague play.

The other good news is that while the returns would be disappointing in the short term, there’s a chance the deal could heavily favor the Twins over the long haul.

As of right now, the Mets offer is reportedly outfielder Carlos Gomez (3) and pitchers Deolis Guerra (2), Kevin Mulvey (4)and Phil Humber (7). The numbers in parentheses is their prospect ranking within the organization by Baseball America.

Gomez and Humber appeared in the big leagues in ‘07, so they’d have a chance to help the Twins now, though those two are the lesser of the group. To me, Gomez’s numbers in the minors don’t seem to project anything better than David DeJesus - the good but certainly not great CF for the Royals. Humber looks like another Kyle Lohse - decent strikeout rate, but a 4.11 career ERA in 54 minor-league starts.

Guerra will turn 19 in April and has already made 20 solid starts at the high A level, while Mulvey would probably have a chance to join the Twins rotation now. The ceiling on Guerra and Mulvey could be as a No.1 or No. 2 starter.

Those might be four useful players, but it’s still an underwhelming return for a two-time Cy Young winner, if for no other reason than three of the four are pitchers, and pitching prospects are further from a sure thing than hitters.

The wild card here is a 19-year old outfielder named Fernando Martinez, the Mets undisputed No. 1 prospect. While he’s not currently believed to be part of the Mets offer, the Twins would almost certainly demand him as part of any deal, and the Mets have yet to declare him off limits the way they did with SS Jose Reyes (and the Yanks did with Joba Chamberlain). Strib beat writer LaVelle E. Neal III suggested that Martinez could be in play if the Twins would include a prospect of their own to go to NY with Santana.

Some reports have said the Twins would ask for Martinez to be added to the current deal, with the thinking probably being that Gomez could take over in CF now, while Martinez would be given another year or so in the minors. But if Martinez becomes part of the deal, I say let the Mets keep Gomez. If Gomez is the next David DeJesus, Martinez is the next Carlos Beltran.

So the deal could end up being Santana to the NL (a good thing to be sure), for a top-flight CF prospect, two highly regarded pitching prospects and a third who could also prove useful at the big-league level.

Here’s a closer look at the five Mets propspects being mentioned.

*Fernando Martinez - OF

6-1, 190

Age: 19 Bats: L Throws: R

He signed for $1.4 million at the age of 16 and skipped rookie ball altogether, going straight to Single-A Hagerstown of the South Atlantic League, where he hit .328/.383/.497 in 195 at-bats – at the age of 17. This earned him a call-up to the higher Single-A club in St. Lucie, and while he hit only .193, he did hit 5 homers in 119 at-bats, still at the age of 17. For a 17-year old to be able to hit 10 homers in just over 300 at-bats against Single-A pitching is almost totally unheard of, though he struggled to repeat it in ‘07. He spent last year at Double-A Binghamton, and at age 18, hit .271/.336/.377.Reports say he has the speed to play CF and the arm to play RF.

When he signed at age 16 scouts were making comparisons to Ted Williams, and doing so with a straight face. That’s pretty harsh for such a young kid, but he does appear capable of being a five-tool player. He might be ready for the big leagues by ‘09, but 2010 is probably more likely.

*Carlos Gomez - OF

6-2, 170

Age: 22 Bats: R Throws: R

He spent part of last year with the Mets, and at age 21, hit .232/.288/.304 in 58 games. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he hit .286/.363/.414. His minor-league numbers are good but by no means great - .278/.339/.399 in 1,291 at-bats. He does have 141 steals, including 64 in one year. With little power, he’s more of a lead-off type guy (which makes that .339 OBP all the more depressing). His strikeout-walk ratio (250 K’s, 82 walks in 1,291 ABs) is also fairly unimpressive. Gomez seems to me to be one of those guys everyone likes for his athleticism more than his actual performance. I’m just not all that excited about his numbers. Maybe he’ll start hitting.

*Deolis Guerra - RHP

6-5, 200

Age: will be 19 in April

Another guy who skipped rookie ball, Guerra made 17 starts in the Sally League in ‘06 and posted a 2.20 ERA, allowing 59 hits with 64 Ks and 37 walks in 82 innings. Like Martinez, he was 17 when he did this.

Last year, at age 18, he made 20 starts at St. Lucie (high A), posting a 4.01 ERA, allowing 80 hits with 66 Ks and 25 walks in 90 innings. He’s Venezuelan, throws a 95-mph fastball and is working on a changeup. Sound familiar?

*Kevin Mulvey - RHP

6-1, 170

Age: 23 in May

The Mets 2nd round pick in ‘06 out of Villanova, Mulvey made one start before finishing the season with three strong starts at Double-A. That’s where he started in ‘07, going 11-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 26 starts. In 151 innings he allowed 145 hits with 110 Ks and 43 walks. He finished the season with a single start at Triple-A, where he tossed six shutout innings. He has a good fastball and his top secondary pitch is a slider. Is probably very close to being ready now.

*Phil Humber - RHP

6-4, 210

Age: 25

The Mets 1st round pick out of Rice in ‘04, Humber got his first cup of coffee last year. He was the third overall pick in ‘04 and held out for a $3.77 million bonus. That would suggest he’s a future No. 1 (being a 6-4, hard-throwing righty from Nocagdotches, Texas, he was often compared to Ryan, Clemens, Wood, Beckett, etc.), but most scouts currently regard him as a No. 4. That’s probably partially due to the fact he had Tommy John surgery in ‘05. It’s probably also partially due to the fact that he has a 4.11 ERA in 54 career minor-league starts. Still, his 266 K’s in 290 innings is promising.

I think I still like the Yankees and Red Sox offers better, and I think the Twins will still give both of those teams every opportunity to stay in the game. But if they have to turn to the Mets, there's still a chance they can come away with a decent package.
As long as it includes Fernando Martinez.