Monday, January 28, 2008

Morneau, Cuddyer sign


Over the weekend Justin Morneau signed a six-year deal for $80 million, the richest contract in Twins history, and Michael Cuddyer signed a 3-year, $23 million deal with an option for a fourth.
I'm tired so I won't go into a lengthy breakdown of the deal, but I'll make a couple points.
*This is good news. By locking up these two, the Twins now have their four best hitters, Morneau, Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Joe Mauer, locked up for the foreseeable future. It sends a positive message to the fans and to the existing players, at a time when public perception of the team was negative and getting worse by the day.
*They overpaid. While Morneau was the driving force behind the team's AL Central title in '06, which garnered him the AL MVP, he's been essentially an average first baseman the rest of his career. Some have used that fact to say that signing him to such a big deal is a mistake, but I am definitely not going there. I think it's a good gamble to expect that Morneau is entering into the prime of his career. Will he hit .321 every year, as he did in '06? Maybe not. But if he hits .275-.300 with over 30 homers each year, my guess is the deal will look like a bargain in a few years, by which time his annual salary of $13 million will probably seem modest.
When you factor in how badly the Twins have struggled to find players like Morneau, this was a deal they had to make.
Cuddyer was actually below average for a RF last year, but giving $8 million a year to a guy who can hit .275 with 20 homers while playing decent defense is OK. He's also one of the most popular players on the Twins, which might have contributed to the team's willingness to pay him. Should something like that matter? Probably not, but I'm OK with it.
Bottom line, sometimes you overpay in the present to avoid really overpaying in the future (which, by the way, is the reason Torii Hunter and Johan Santana are not currently signed to long-term contracts with the Twins).
*The Santana factor
Does this mean the Twins are going to take another run at signing Johan Santana? That's what some are speculating, but my guess is it actually means they're close to a deal. I'd be surprised if the Twins budged from their 4-year, $80 million offer. Then again, maybe they'll decide that they really like what they have and it's worth bending over and paying him. We'll see.

27 comments:

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