May I call you Rondellmon?

It's early, so I'm not going to write anyone off. But while most of my friends and fellow Twins fans bitch and moan about Mike Lamb (he'll end up at .275 with 15 homers, so quit bitching) and Joe Mauer (he's never going to hit homers, deal with it), I find myself wondering when Delmon Young is going to put up numbers that are better than Nick Punto's.
OK, that's pushing it, but Delmon is currently getting out-OPS'd by Johan Santana. So are the Twins as a team, actually.

Last year in Tampa, Young hit .288 with 93 RBI, and those are two numbers that would indicate he had a good-but-not-great season. And at his age, it would stand to reason he's only going to get better. I've written that myself, and I still believe it to be true.
On the other hand, .288 isn't all that great when it comes with only 26 walks. That's a .316 OBP, and that's not very good. In addition he had only 13 homers, and he played in all 162 games. The guy had 645 at-bats. 13 homers in 645 ABs? I think Boof Bonser would hit more than 13 bombs if he got that many chances.

Young has been compared to various hall of fame players (always unfair, no matter how good a young guy actually is) and many, including myself, speculated that he might be able to cover Torri Hunter's offense as soon as this year. But he actually is closer to Carlos Gomez than Torii Hunter at this point. You can see the talent, but he just looks really raw. Not very patient with a very long swing. So far he's basically filled the void left by Rondell White.
Through 93 ABs entering play Sunday, DY had a miserable .289 OBP and even worse .312 slugging percentage. No homers, 3 doubles and a triple. And if my memory serves me correct, two of those three doubles came because he hustled against lazy OF's to get an extra base on a single. It's great that he did that, but it shows his power numbers could be even worse.

Now you can chalk it all up to his youth, and for now, I'll probably do that myself in the interest of staying positive with a young prospect. But in looking at his minor league numbers, it's clear that the higher Young has climbed, the less he's hit for power.
He hit 25 homers in the Sally League (A+) in 2004, then hit 20 dongs in only 84 games at Double-A in '05, at the age of 19. To be doing that at 19 is really impressive, and that's why, at the time, he was arguably the top hitting prospect in all of baseball.
But when he moved to Triple-A, he stopped hitting home runs.
6 homers in 52 games in 2005. 8 in 86 games in 2006. And 13 in 645 at-bats last year.

If Young doesn't hit homers, he won't be nearly as valuable, because he doesn't get on base much and doesn't play a premium defensive position. Torii Hunter never had a great OBP, but because he hit 25-30 homers and was a Gold Glove CF, his on-base skills didn't much matter.

Think of it this way. Joe Mauer's lack of power is annoying, yes. But he usually has a .400 OBP and is one of the best defensive players in the league at the most difficult position in the sport.

Imagine Young hitting .300 with 8 homers just like Mauer, but doing it in left field, with a .325 OBP. Would you trade the best pitching prospect in your organization for that?

Not ready, but it's not a big deal yet

It's hard to imagine Francisco Liriano's third start with the Twins going any worse.
2/3 of an inning, five hits, three walks and six runs. A total disaster.
By the time you read this, the Twins will have announced that Liriano is going back to Triple-A Rochester, with Red Wings closer Bobby Korecky getting called up to give the Twins 'pen another arm. With a few off days coming up, the Twins will probably be able to survive without a fifth starter until Kevin Slowey is ready to come off the DL.

It was clear that Liriano wasn't ready for a call-up, and the Rochester coaching staff warned the Twins that was the case, but they called him up anyway.
Even though he wasn't ready it still made some sense. The Twins wanted to be able to keep tabs on Liriano themselves. To be able to monitor his habits daily. That's understandable.
So if they still wanted to do that, they could just move Liriano to the bullpen and use him as a mop-up guy.

But apparently confidence is as much the issue as anything physical, so maybe a trip back to the minors makes sense. The most important thing, as Ron Gardenhire stated after the game, is that Liriano just keeps throwing. It doesn't really matter where. But for right now, going down to the minors can't be a bad thing.

There's really no reason to be surprised by any of this. Liriano didn't throw for, what, 19 months? What do you expect? Of course he won't have any command, or bite on his breaking pitches.

Surely the idea that Liriano will ever return to his former self is in doubt, but that was already the case as soon as he had TJ surgery. Nothing that has happened in these first couple months of his comeback have made a full recovery any more or less likely.

Notes from a nice win

I hate it when the Twins play in Oakland. Not so much because of how late it gets, but because of the incredibly annoying extraneous sounds that can be heard during the broadcast. Trumpets, harmonicas, whistles...what the hell? It drives me nuts.

But Tuesday it was worth it to tolerate those noises as the Twins posted an entertaining win, one that was spearheaded by Craig Monroe.
Monroe entered the game 7-for-11 in his career against Oakland starter Joe Blanton, and upped that to 10-for-14 (a .714 average) by singling, doubling and homering off Blanton.

The addition of Monroe has been widely criticized, and justifiably so. Teams like the Twins have no business paying platoon players $3.8 million. But the good news is Monroe has been showing signs that he may bounce back from last year's nightmare season. He's probably not ever going to repeat his 2006 season when he hit 28 homers and was a key member of the Tigers' run to the World Series, but he can give the Twins a dangerous bench bat, something they haven't really had in recent years.
And give credit to Ron Gardenhire for, so far, using Monroe optimally. I have to say I've been impressed with the way Gardy has managed his lineups and used his bench so far this season.

*Mike Lamb has gotten on the bad side of many impatient blog commenters around the web with his slow start, but it's silly to worry about him, or to suggest that he should lose his job. He went 3-for-4 Tuesday, and while only one of those three hits was hit particularly well, bumping his average could bump him out of his funk.

Unlike many of the stiffs the Twins have tried to pass off in recent years, Lamb actually has a track record, which is why Ron Coomer correctly scoffed when Anthony LaPanta asked him in the post game show if Lamb's slow start was a concern.
Lamb has had seven full seasons in the big leagues, and he put up the following numbers in those years:

YR Avg OBP SLG
00 .278 .328 .373
01 .306 .348 .412
02 .283 .354 .411
04 .288 .356 .511
05 .236 .284 .419
06 .307 .361 .475
07 .289 .366 .453

Yes, his 2005 stats are a red flag, but every other year, he was a reliable, solidly above average major league hitter. He will hit.

*On the other hand, it's official. Carlos Gomez sucks.
Calm down, now, I'm not giving up on him or anything. I think he has a chance to be great. His potential appears limitless.
But he is so not ready. Tuesday he was 0-for-5 with 4 Ks. He swings at everything. He has no approach at the plate. He's a poor bunter, and he bunts all the time.
He's now hitting .233/.250/.314, for a horrific .564 OPS. In 20 games he has 23 strikeouts, and 2 walks. Not the K/BB ratio you look for in a leadoff guy.

And while the catch he made Sunday afternoon was indeed impressive, Gomez has so far been a liability on defense as well. He takes absolutely horrendous angles to balls in the gap (both in the air and on the ground), which has already turned a few singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He also has yet to harness his impressive throwing arm, missing the cutoff man as often as he guns someone down.

Now. The fact that Gomez has played every inning so far is certainly defensible. The Twins are rebuilding this year, and Gomez is gaining valuable experience.
Why not let him play every day and work through his rough edges, right?

But the thing is, learning on the job doesn't have to be done at the big league level. In fact, sometimes it might be better off not to do it that way.
Torii Hunter spent all of 1999 in the big leagues, and struggled some (.255/.309/.380). When he struggled again in 2000 he was sent back to Triple A. But when he came back he pounded the ball, and hit 26 homers in 2001, the first of his several year run of being a solid major league slugger.

If Gomez is allowed to flail away for too long in the majors, it could hurt his confidence and affect his long term progression. It's still early, but you have to wonder if eventually Gomez would be better served to go back to Triple-A (where he's played a total of 36 games in his entire life) for awhile.

*Nice work by the Vikings picking up Jared Allen, the league's sack leader a year ago with 15.5 (also he wears No. 69. He he.). Considering the Vikings would've just ended up with another Duane Clemons or Fernando Smith with the draft pick, I strongly support the trade. NFL teams overvalue their draft picks.

*Speaking of the NFL and trades, how awesome is it that the Bengals would rather make Chad Johnson sit out the season then let him get his way, even if it means turning down decent trade offers? The Skins offered the Bengals a first and third round pick for the guy, and the Bengals basically said, 'No we want to screw this guy, even if it would help our team to make this trade.'
Chad Johnson is a fucking dick. I hate him. He sucks.

Minor matters

Two players that a large percentage of Twins fans have ripped on heavily in recent years are Scott Baker and Jason Kubel.

Fans (the dumb ones) tend to get really worked up about prospects that they hear about on the minor league reports on TV and the radio, but when those prospects don't pan out quickly enough for their liking, they're amazingly quick to give up on them. They start complaining that they'll never amount to anything, that they're bums, and that (fill in the name of an overrated journeyman) should be playing in their spot.

But the Twins have been patient with Baker and Kubel (in Kubel's case too patient), and now they're both emerging. After 7 excellent innings against Cleveland Sunday, Baker's ERA is 3.51. He fanned 8 and walked one. If Brendan Harris could've turned a DP, it would've been a shutout. Going back to the middle of last year, Baker has been pitching like an ace for a long enough stretch that it's now safe to think he's got the potential to be at least a good No. 2 type starter, maybe a No. 1.

And Kubel, playing every day, continues to hit well. He's second on the team in HR and RBI, and two more hits Sunday pushed his average to .266. I was sure that last year would be his breakout year, and, even though he finished strong, it didn't really happen. This year, it looks like he's well on his way. (And by breakout year, I mean .285 with 20 to 25 homers and 80 to 100 RBIs.)

What is the lesson here? Patience yes, but more so, to pay attention to minor league stats. If a guy has put up fantastic numbers in the minors he's got an excellent chance to put up numbers in the big leagues. So you show those guys plenty of patience.
Kubel hit .320/.385/.499 in his minor league career, and Baker posted a 2.99 ERA with 408 Ks and just 97 walks in 482 innings in his.

It's almost stunning to think of all the people last year who wanted Jason Tyner and even Lew Ford playing over Kubel. And who couldn't understand why Baker was getting another callup.

Now it should be sinking in, and it really shouldn't be viewed as a surprise by anyone who's been paying attention.

Same shit, different day

You know....Aw, forget it.
I don't have the energy. These last two days have sucked dog balls.
I just hope the picture on the right (similar to the one from yesterday, no?) doesn't get too familiar.

The Tigers will be talking about this game in October

Well, at least we've got a lot to talk about.

First off, this loss doesn't hurt quite as much for me as you might think, because nothing in the Twins first 12 games did anything to change my mind about this year's team. They're a .500 team. Blowing a five-run lead would kill me if I thought it had a chance to cost the Twins a pennant, but this team ain't winning no pennant, so, you know. BFD.

What sucks about this loss is you know its the kind we're going to hear about forever. Because you know, you just know, the Tigers are back now. This is exactly what they needed - an emotional, come from behind win at home.
I'm not saying this game will cause an immediate turnaround, because the Tigers were going to get going eventually anyway. But you know when they do, they'll be telling local and national media about how it was that big comeback against the Twins that did the trick, especially since Jim Leyland supposedly ripped his guys Sunday night. That had nothing to do with the Twins choking, but it sounds good in the paper, right?

No, the Tigers won because the Twins gave the game away.
Here's how:
*Nick Blackburn fell apart. It would be easy to blame Ron Gardenhire for not having Matt Guerrier ready to go, but Blackburn fell apart so fast, there wasn't much he could do.
*Guerrier wasn't very good. He was leaving his pitches up and over the middle, and the Tigers hitters are way too good to do that against.
*Gardy left Guerrier in too long. When Gardy was asked about that afterwards he said, refreshingly, that Guerrier should be good enough to protect a five run lead without getting Neshek up. He's right. But he still could've had Jesse Crain or Juan Rincon ready to go, and either of them would've been a better option at that point, because Guerrier was getting thumped.
*Neshek was terrible. His slider had so little bite that it actually looked like an 82-mph fastball on screen. He was throwing puss right down the middle of the plate. The Rodriguez triple was especially frustrating. I-Rod almost always swings at the first pitch, so beginning an at-bat with a get-me-over hanger, whether intentional or not, is unforgivable.
*Gardy left Neshek in too long, too. I can understand trusting him and wanting to ride him, but Dennys Reyes or Joe Nathan could have at least been warming up.
*Denard Span should've caught that ball. Weak.
*Carlos Gomez might be fast, but he might also be, fundamentally, the worst CF in baseball. Watching him and Span try to cut off soft liners into the gap was embarrassing. If Torii Hunter's in CF, he cuts those balls off, and the game might still be going.
*Adam Everett appears to be, right now, the worst player in baseball. He can't hit (we knew that), but right now he can't throw it either. If he isn't fielding, and fielding extremely well, he's worthless.
*Nick Punto very nearly tied the game with an opposite field drive in the 9th, and he's showing signs of being less terrible at the plate, but I still think you've got to have Craig Monroe pinch hit there if you have Matt Tolbert ready to come in in the infield (they did).

About blogs

In case you didn't already know, I've branched out to blogging professionally at argusleader.com, and today, instead of talking about the debut of Francisco Liriano (that was exactly what you expected from him anyway wasn't it?), I'll direct you to something that I think is relevant to anyone who takes the time to stop by here once in awhile: Blogging in America.

We'll return to your regularly scheduled Twinstown stuff tomorrow.

Bats Come Alive

One game can often easily change the perception of a team or unit (in this case, the Twins offense).
A dozen runs and suddenly everyone feels better.
It's just one game, but there is plenty you can take from this one to make you feel a little better about this struggling lineup.
*Jason Kubel is going to play after all. Ever since the Twins overpaid for Craig Monroe, Ron Gardenhire seemed to be hinting that Kubel would lose ABs to Monroe, and that seemed to be confirmed when Monroe got the start on opening day at DH, even with a righty on the mound. But I'm starting to think that move was largely a pointed motivational tactic aimed at Kubel, who Gardy and others often complain doesn't "show enough fire".

I for one don't give a shit if a guy "shows fire" if he can play.
For example:
Nick Punto=Fire=Shitty. Alex Rodriguez=not that much fire=best player alive.

Kubel is no A-Rod, but he was the team's best hitter in the second half last year. And after driving in six runs with a double and a grand slam Wednesday night, Gardy had this to say:
"He's in the lineup to hit. I've always said I really believe this guy can hit. He's going to get plenty of opportunities this year. He got 450 at-bats last year, I think, and he's going to get more than that this year. He's healthy from his knee problems now and it's time to get his at-bats and go."

Is Gardy a hypocrite pulling a 180? Or has he planned all along to give Kubel the ABs he deserved, and just wanted to get his goat a little by benching him on opening day?
I'm guessing the latter. But it doesn't matter. What matters is that Kubel is apparently finally going to get his chance to play every day.

*Brendan Harris had two singles a double and a walk, and made another error.
He's obviously not much of a fielder, but he can hit. While many have wondered if his '07 numbers (.286, 12 homers, 35 doubles) were a fluke, it might be worth asking if that was just a start. Maybe he's just going to get better.
And while his defense is a concern, there's a chance the Twins can help him improve. It's a lot easier to get better as a fielder (especially at a non-impact position like 2B) than it is to learn how to hit.

*Mike Lamb had a single and a double, and appears to be warming up, though he did have to leave the game Wednesday with a bruised foot. Joe Mauer is hitting .323, and Justin Morneau is already up to .233 after an 0 for 16 start. And Morneau also has five walks (and just five strikeouts) in 9 games.

*Scott Baker may have given up 3 runs in 5 innings (that's a 5.40 ERA), but he pitched like an ace. How?
When spotted a 7-0 lead, he correctly realized that as long as he didn't give up any free passes and kept the baserunners to a minimum, there was no way the White Sox could win. Where alot of pitchers would've continued to pitch carefully (because they're worried about their ERA), Baker went right at the hitters, and allowed three homers. All were solos. None were a factor in the game. That is how you pitch with a lead.

*The good news never ends. Matt Garza had to leave his last start with Tampa and has been put on the DL with radial nerve irriation. He claims it was something that started to bother him late last year. That might not make the D-Rays too happy, and Gardy took exception to Garza's suggestion.

"Wasn't he healthy all spring for them?" Gardenhire said. "So now he's going to say he was hurt earlier? That's not good."

"He never missed a bullpen [session] or a start [here]. I don't know what he's saying. I haven't read it and don't plan on reading it, just based on what you said. Everything was documented on Matt Garza and there were no injuries here."

"If he said he was hurt, I'm not going to call him a liar or anything like that. But he should have let us know that he might have had an injury. Normally, it's good when the team you are pitching for knows that. But I doubt that he had any injuries here."

Maybe Garza is damaged goods, but the more pressing concern for the Rays should be the fact that Garza kind of seems like a mental midget. He seems sort of...scatterbrained.

The New Guys: One Week In

The Associated Press runs the same baseball preview every year, which includes a breakout box with the following information.
He's here: Whoever they added in the offseason.
He's outta here: Whoever the team in question got rid of.
I remember one year (2001) the Twins preview said this after he's here: Tom Prince.
That was it. Tom Prince. The Twins offseason consisted of signing Tom Prince, a backup catcher who was great behind the dish but couldn't hit his weight. And the Twins improved by 16 wins that year.

Anyway, I learned to get used to that every year.
But this season, the Twins offseason consisted of alot.
The 'He's here' consisted of Carlos Gomez, Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, Livan Hernandez and Jason Pridie (not to mention Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Zach Day, Randy Ruiz, John Knott and other minor leaguers).
It's been a week and the Twins are 3-5. Here's a quick look at what the Twins new acquisitions have given them.

Gomez
I didn't think he'd be ready, and let's remember, he's still really raw with lots of holes in his swing. But I'll be the first to admit that I underestimated his potential. I made a big deal about the Twins inability to land Fernando Martinez in the Johan Santana deal, and while I still think Martinez has amazing potential, I can certainly see why the Twins liked Gomez. He's a fun guy to watch. As of right now he's a terror on the basepaths, 5 for 5 stealing bases, with a .333 average and .353 OBP. But the 10 Ks and only 1 walk suggest it won't last.
Still, I love this kid. My guess is he finishes the year with an OBP in the .320s or so, but he's still awful young. He'll get better.

Everett
The best shortstop in the game was how he was touted, with some calling him better than Ozzie Smith. And while he's made some nice plays early, he's also made some bad throws, keeping Justin Morneau busy. Hopefully he'll straighten that out. The bat appears to be as advertised: Weak.

Lamb
He had a nice game at the plate Monday, which will hopefully shake him out of a slight slump. I haven't seen him field enough balls to make a judgment about his fielding, and while he hasn't hit much yet, I like his approach and swing.

Harris
He's made some highlight reel plays at 2B, but they look like the kind of plays that Nick Punto would get to flat-footed, so the questions about his defense seem warranted. But early on it looks like his strong season at the plate last year was no fluke. He can hit. He'll handle the 2-hole OK while Michael Cuddyer is hurt, but hopefully he'll be moved back to the bottom of the order when Cuddyer comes back. He sure makes a good 8-hole guy.

Young
The question about how good Young will be revolves around his power and plate discipline, and so far he's shown none of either. He's hitting .290, which is fine, expect for the fact that his OBP is also .290 since he has no walks, and his slugging percentage is .323 since he has only a double among his 9 hits. I'm hoping that Young's power will develop as he gets older and matures as a hitter, but I've been hoping for the same thing from Joe Mauer for a few years, and so far haven't seen it.

Hernandez
Hard to argue with the results so far. I'm not getting worked up, because I had high hopes that Ramon Ortiz could be decent last year, and after a terrific start, he was soon getting bombed. Livan may thrown about as hard as me, but he mixes it up well and so far has been throwing strikes. If nothing else, I do believe he'll have a positive influence on the rest of the young rotation, whether or not he continues to pitch well.

Monroe
Looks bad so far (one hit, five Ks in 11 ABs). Playing him over Jason Kubel is stupid times 10, but Gardy seems to have figured that out already, to the degree that now that Cuddyer is on the DL, light-hitting Denard Span is getting starts in RF instead of Monroe. Monroe can still contribute something, but only if he's limited to playing against lefties only (though he still wouldn't be worth $3.8 million at that point). I guess, at the very least, it's nice to have a guy on the bench who at least has the potential to hit the ball over the fence.

Matt Tolbert
A surprise addition to the roster after a good spring, Tolbert is hitting .500 (7-for-14). I wouldn't expect that to keep up, but he shows promise as a utility guy. Punto has barely seen the field so far, and for that alone, we should heartily celebrate the presence of Matt Tolbert.

I'm not impressed

The Royals swept the Tigers.
The Royals, who lose 100 games every year, swept the Tigers, who are supposed to be the best team like, ever.
Gil Meche, Brian 'son of Floyd' Bannister and Zack Greinke are three pretty solid starters, and they shoved it up the Tigers' butts.

But before we all jump on the Royals bandwagon, let's rewind five years.

It was 2003, and the Royals had a rookie manager, like they do now. The Twins and White Sox were the heavy favorites in the AL Central, much like the Indians and Tigers are now.
The Royals opened the season by sweeping the White Sox, and soon ran their record to 9-0. Everyone was excited. The new manager was a new celebrity.
After sweeping a two-game series from the Twins, the Royals record was at 16-3.
16-3!
But it was all downhill from there. They ended up 83-79, a fluke season in the middle of a series of 100-loss seasons.

The Royals are better than they were last year. But I'm not buying in based on three games.

The other way around

As in, it was supposed to be.
Every year the Twins manage to buck the assumed role they'll have.
We think they'll be able to hit, and they can't. We think their pitching will be shitty. And it isn't.

The first three games don't prove a thing, but the way things have played out are, well, ironic, to say the least.

Three games, three quality starts from the starting rotation.
Three games, four runs from the new and improved lineup.

If you're working yourself into a lather over the lineup's struggles, look at it this way.
Do you think the pitching is going to keep this up? No, you don't. So there's no more reason to assume the hitting will remain this bad.

Or, to look at it another way, the Twins, through three games, are hitting .237/.283/.280. Terrible? Absolutely.
But the Tigers, the consensus pick to have the best lineup in all of baseball, are at .191/.267/.338 through two games against the Royals.

It is a long, long, long season.

Having said that, there are concerns.
*Justin Morneau looks awful, and it really has nothing to do with the fact that he's 0-for-11 or whatever. It has to do with the fact that he hasn't even hit the ball out of the infield yet, and the fact that he was worse than every Twins hitter not named Nick Punto in spring training, and the fact that he was pretty awful during August and September of last year. This isn't a three-game slump, this is a four-month (not counting off-season) slump.
It's too early, and therefore unfair I think, to start wondering if his new contract plays a role in this, but there's really no excuse for what he's doing.

The guy who won the 2006 MVP and got off to a similar start in '07 was a guy who hit the ball to all fields, was not pull-conscious, could hit lefties and righties, could take what the pitcher gave him, could go with the pitch. He was a complete hitter.
So suggesting that pitchers have simply made the adjustments doesn't explain it for me.
I think he's just gotta sack up and start hitting. I don't think there's any more to it than that.

*You might be shocked to know that I have no problem with the fact that Punto got the start at 3B over Mike Lamb. The reason being I don't think Gardy did it because Punto's a switch-hitter, Lamb is a lefty and the pitcher was a lefty. I think it was more a case of wanting to get Punto in and give Lamb an early rest.
I've always believed that a good manager will make sure every player on the roster gets into the first series of the year, perhaps gets a start if possible. Lamb is going to have to be eased into an everyday role.
Lamb hit .362 against lefties last year (only 57 ABs), and for his career is at .268. That's much better than Punto hits against anyone. So I'm pretty sure it won't be a regular occurrence.

*Terrific start for Nick Blackburn. Too bad they couldn't get him a run. Puts a little pressure on Kevin Slowey as he takes the mound tonight, because when Francisco Liriano comes off the DL, somebody's probably going to get bumped. Brian Bass will probably be the guy who gets sent down when that day comes, the question is which of those three goes to the bullpen.

*Joe Mauer hits into a game-ending double play. OK, whatever, no big surprise. Kirby Puckett led the league in GIDP's almost every year.
But here's what I can't help but think about 57 times a day. Joe is 6-5, 230. Why does he hit like Brett Butler (the former Dodgers/Indians/Giants leadoff guy, not the ugly comedienne)?
Please, Joe, please start driving the ball. Maybe even hit one over the fence.

Boof Lite

Much has been made of the fact that Boof Bonser lost anywhere from 20-30 pounds this off-season, depending on which reports you believe.

There was a wide assumption - because most Twins fans take everything the team tells them as gospel without bothering to question it - that a slimmer Boof would mean a better Boof, but of course, if it were that easy, Jared would be getting paid to pitch baseballs and not sub sandwiches.

While it looked to me like Boof has already started to put a couple of those pounds back on (I could be wrong, I just thought he looked thinner the couple times I saw him in spring training games), there was some evidence from his start Tuesday that he has benefitted from his new diet.

He got knocked around pretty good in the first inning to the tune of two runs, then gave up a deep double to lead off the second, but settled down pretty nicely from then on.

This is basically the opposite of what we saw from Boof last year. He would often mow through the lineup once, racking up strikeouts through 3, 4 or 5 good innings, but then he'd hit a wall and start getting whacked (and sometimes start walking people, too).

One theory to explain that phenomenon would be that Boof just doesn't have enough pitches to get good hitters out 3 or 4 times in a game, and that he'd be better suited for the bullpen.

That's usually how most relievers become relievers.

The other theory, the one the Twins decided to go with, is that his fatness limited his stamina and wore him out quick.

I think the jury is still out as to which theory is true. Considering Boof has been working hard to make his changeup a real option and not just a token pitch, the Twins are obviously at least somewhat willing to consider the former theory as well as the latter.

So back to Tuesday night. After the rough first inning he gave up the leadoff double in the 2nd, but got out of the inning without even letting that runner reach third. He then put up two more zeroes, before getting into a little trouble in the 5th, thanks in part to some shaky defense.

I thought he'd be pulled after five, but Ron Gardenhire took a chance and sent him back out for the 6th. That would have been a recipe for disaster last year, but Boof responded with a clean inning, which should be a big confidence boost to him.

Does that mean he has more stamina? That the weight-loss will pay off as the Twins have claimed? It's certainly possible.

He gave up 8 hits and 4 runs in 6 innings, but only 3 of the 4 runs were earned, and most impressively, he didn't walk a batter on the night, while striking out four.

The results don't show it clearly, especially since the bullpen and defense were of no help on this night (more on that another day), but Boof's first start of the year was a positive.

OK, I kinda like this guy

I'm far from convinced that this is how it's going to be regularly, but man, Carlos Gomez can do some things. He was by far the most exciting player on the field Monday night as the Twins opened the season with a 3-2 win over the Angels.
I'm still doubtful about his ability to get on base, but if he can steal bases like that, and throw in some XBH, he might work out in the leadoff spot after all.

Then again, it's one game. He could go 0-4 with 3 Ks tonight.

*Livan. WTF. You are not that good. I simply refuse to believe it. But that was a pretty good start.
*Brendan Harris had two hits, which probably just made Gardy mad. Can't start Punto yet.
*Craig Monroe starting at DH, against a righty. Why? Why, why, why, why, why, why? You are an idiot, Ron Gardenhire.
*Pat Neshek made Vlad Guerrero his bitch. And even though Neshek doesn't like me, I enjoyed it.
*Think Joe Nathan has seen Torii Hunter hit before? Nothing but cutters and sliders low and away.
*Hey Justin Morneau - any day now, dude.

AL Central Preview: Minnesota Twins

This year marks the first time since 2002 that I haven't gone with the Twins as my pick to win the AL Central, and there are a myriad of reasons for that.
The rotation could be bad. The lineup should be better, but that doesn't mean it will be. And if it's not, that would really hurt because they've already sacrificed some defense in trying to improve the offense.
And the formidable teams that Cleveland and Detroit have put together are the biggest factors of all. While the unbalanced schedule played a huge role in the Twins winning three straight AL Central crowns from 2002-2004 (the '03 team in particular was fairly weak) it will make things that much harder on them now, as they'll play the bulk of their games against Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Kansas City (Makes you realize just how much more impressive their '06 division title was than any of the other three).

In the past you could say something like, "Well, if everything goes right, and this happens and this happens and that happens, then they have a shot."
That's basically what happened in '06.
But this year, I think even if almost everything went right for the Twins, they'd still finish in third place. 85-88 wins seems like an absolute best case scenario.
And on the flip side, while I certainly don't expect this team to be bad, it could be. If enough things went wrong, 90 losses or more could be possible.

The Lineup
CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The Bench
C Mike Redmond
OF Monroe/Kubel
IF Nick Punto
IF Matt Tolbert

The biggest problem I have with this lineup is Gomez. I certainly liked what I saw from him in spring training from a tools/potential standpoint, but I'd be surprised if he posted better than a .300 OBP, and that's horrible from anywhere in the lineup, let alone the leadoff spot. I would not be surprised if Gomez made at least one trip back to Triple-A this year.
And in the 9-hole, Adam Everett will be doing well if he can hit .250 with a .300 OBP. He might be able to hit 6 or 7 homers - he once hit 11.
In between, however, I really like this lineup. I never liked Joe Mauer in the 3-hole, so it's great to see him batting second. He's ideal for that spot, especially since he's more of a groundball/line drive-hitter. Mauer was hurt for much of last year, and if he can stay healthy, he would be a great table-setter for what should be a solid middle.
And Mauer isn't the only one looking to bounce back, and/or take a step up. Morneau and Cuddyer both slumped last year, while Kubel and Young appear to be on the cusp of realizing their potential. I don't think Kubel is ever going to be the five-star player he was occasionally hyped as, but he very well could be a Shane Mack-type of contributor. Young could put up Kirby Puckett numbers eventually, but my guess is that's at least another year away.
I'm trying to keep an open mind about Monroe, but if he plays with any regularity against RHP, Ron Gardenhire should be shot.
Lamb and Harris aren't major difference makers, but they represent exactly the kind of offensive upgrades the Twins should've been making the last few years. You don't need to go out and land a superstar all the time. If they can both provide .275/.340/.430 numbers or thereabouts, it would make a big difference in a lineup that last year routinely featured Luis Castillo, Jason Tyner and Nick Punto at the same time.

The Ro'
RH Livan Hernandez
RH Boof Bonser
RH Scott Baker
RH Kevin Slowey
RH Nick Blackburn/LH Francisco Liriano

The 'pen
RH Matt Guerrier
RH Juan Rincon
RH Jesse Crain
RH Brian Bass
RH Pat Neshek
LH Dennys Reyes
RH Joe Nathan

The rotation is the Twins' weakness, without question. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be bad, but it would be something close to a miracle if it was better than league average.
I think the best way to break it down is one by one.
-Hernandez
He's durable, and Gardy and Rick Anderson have always valued veterans. I get a sense that the reason for that is more for what those veterans will do for the young guys from a mentorship role than what they'll do for the team's win/loss record.
Hernandez's ERA is likely to be north of 5. The question is whether or not he'll keep his spot in the rotation all year long.
-Bonser
Kind of a forgotten man, people seem to forget that he had an excellent rookie year, and pitched quite well in the first half of last season before breaking down. He lost 30 pounds, and while I'm not going to automatically assume that means he'll be better, I do think it's possible that Boof could provide 210 innings with an ERA in the low 4s or better.
-Baker
He really turned a corner last year, and has the stuff to make you think it's for real. His durability might be a question, but if healthy, he could work 200 innings with an ERA in the mid to high 3s.
-Slowey, Blackburn, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, etc.
This is where the seperation occurs. It's not a sure thing that even Boof or Baker will pitch well this year, and it's just flat out unlikely that Slowey, Blackburn and another host of rookies waiting in the minors are ready to turn the corner this year the way Baker has and Boof almost has.
Slowey has the best chance of that group to make a difference, but even he is probably due for another 100 innings of getting his brains beat in before he figures it out (for the record, I do think he will figure it out eventually).
-Liriano
You could call him the wild card of the group, but I think we can be fairly certain that he's not going to be anything close to his 2006 self this year. 130-160 innings would be a big positive, no matter what his ERA is.

The bullpen will be the strength of the team once again, and it'll likely be better than it was last year. Crain's return will be a big boost to the depth, ensuring that Neshek doesn't have to be so badly overused. Reyes wasn't healthy for most of last year, and guys like Carmen Cali were awful in his place. Rincon isn't what he once was, but he likely won't be asked to pitch in as many big spots as he used to.
Guerrier and Neshek are among the best in the business. So is that Nathan guy.

Last year the Twins had a decent rotation and a bad offense. This year those things should be flip-flopped, so for the most part I think they cancel each other out and the record ends up pretty close to what it was last year. With a healthier Mauer, a healthier bullpen, and slight improvement over last year from Morneau, Cuddyer, Young and Kubel, the Twins have just enough to nudge themselves over .500.
Minnesota Twins
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
Lineup: B
Rotation: C-
Bullpen: A
Bench: B-
Defense: B
2008 Prediction: 82-80, 3rd in AL Central

And the rest of the league....
AL West
1. Anaheim
2. Seattle
3. Oakland
4. Texas

AL Central
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland (WC)
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
5. Kansas City

AL East
1. Boston
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

NL West
1. Arizona
2. Colorado (WC)
3. Los Angeles
4. San Diego
5. San Francisco

NL Central
1. Chicago
2. Milwaukee
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. St. Louis
6. Houston

NL East
1. New York
2. Atlanta
3. Philadelphia
4. Washington
5. Florida

AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez
NL MVP: David Wright
AL CY: Jered Weaver
NL CY: Johan Santana
AL ROY: Daric Barton
NL ROY: Kosuke Fukudome

AL Central Preview: Detroit Tigers

God dammit.

Son of a bitch.

Aw, shit.

You gotta be kiddin' me.

Fuck.

Suck my ass, Dombrowski.

Those were just some of the things that went through the minds of Twins, White Sox and Indians fans, not to mention Red Sox, Yankees, Angels and Mariners fans, too, when the Detroit Tigers swapped their farm system for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, formerly of the Florida Marlins.

The Tigers already had a pretty good team, one that went to the World Series in 2006 and appeared headed there again in '07 before faltering in the second half. But rather than sit still and hope things could right themselves on their own, they did what fans love and GMs are generally afraid to do. They literally bet the farm to make a run at a World Series.

And in fairness, it's not like they bet the farm to make one run. While the Tigers do have some veterans getting up there in years, they also have some young studs, and with an owner willing to spend, there's no reason to think they won't be able to fill holes in free agency over the next few years to keep this team in contention for the foreseeable future.

The lineup is loaded. The rotation isn't as good as Cleveland's, but it's still pretty good. The bullpen is hurting right now due to injuries, but it's a long season. Assuming they eventually get healthy, that unit will be a strength.

The Tigers did clean out their farm system to get Cabrera and Willis, but you know what? Good for them. Seriously, even as a Twins fan, I'm happy to see it. It's about time someone went ahead and tried to win now. At some point you have to cash in your chips and go for it. Good for the Tigers for having the balls to do it. As a fan, I can't imagine being disappointed, no matter how good the prospects are that went to Florida (and they were pretty good).

Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
3B Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
1B Carlos Guillen
C Ivan Rodriguez
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Jacque Jones

Bench
IF/C Brandon Inge
OF Marcus Thames
OF Ryan Rayburn
IF Ramon Santiago
OF Timo Perez
OF Brent Clevlen

I'm not exactly sure that's the order Jimmy Leyland will go with, but what does it matter? You could pull those 9 names out of a hat and come up with a damn good lineup.
Granderson will open the season on the DL, but when healthy, he's a guy who slugs .500 out of the leadoff spot. Polanco is the most underrated player in baseball (he hit .341 last year!).
Then you've got Magglio (.363, won the batting title), Cabrera (otherwise known as the A-Rod of the NL) , Sheffield and Guillen (.296, 21, 102) in the middle, with I-Rod, Renteria (.332) and Jacque rounding out the bottom.
Seriously, their 7-8-9 could be 1-2-3 for many teams.

Rotation
RH Justin Verlander
LH Dontrelle Willis
RH Jeremy Bonderman
LH Nate Robertson
LH Kenny Rogers

Again, I don't know if this is the order they'll go in. But if Rogers is healthy and Willis finds his form (both fairly big ifs) this is a terrific rotation. Verlander is a legit ace, but he is the only sure thing.
I've given up on Bonderman ever being a true ace. He's too much of a mental midget. But he's pretty good for a 3rd or 4th starter. Robertson woke up last year after a terrific '06, but again, you could do a lot worse in the back end of the rotation.
I think a lot of how well Detroit does this year will come down to how well Rogers and Willis throw.
Willis won 22 games in '05 as a 24-year old. The last two years have been a struggle, but you get the feeling he'll find his game now that he's on a team as loaded as these guys are. I wouldn't blame Tiger fans for being nervous about a guy who had a 5.17 ERA in the NL last year, but I'm predicting a solid year from the D-Train.
Rogers I'm less sure of, as his fastball barely cracks 80 these days. But he knows how to pitch. If he's healthy I don't think 180 innings of 4.30 ball are out of the question, and with this lineup, that'd be just fine.

Bullpen
RH Joel Zumaya
RH Fernando Rodney
RH Todd Jones
LH Bobby Seay
RH Zach Miner
RH Jason Grilli
LH Tim Byrdak

Zumaya and Rodney are both expected to open the year on the DL, and if they're out for a prolonged stretch, that will make it tough for the Tigers to hold off Cleveland. Seay and Byrdak both pitched very well last year, as did Miner. As a Twins fan, I'm usually happy to see Grilli brought into a game.
Jones, as I wrote yesterday, is a decent closer. He doesn't have very good stuff, and you probably want to give him at least at 2-run lead to work with, but he usually finds a way to get it done. He won't be as good, however, without Zumaya and Rodney in front of him.

This is one of the best lineups I've ever seen. And while the rotation and bullpen both have questions, my prediction is that the Tigers are going to come out ahead in both of those areas. If I'm wrong and they don't, the Indians probably take the Central.

Detroit Tigers
Manager: Jim Leyland
Lineup: A+
Rotation: B+
Bullpen: B
Bench: A-
Defense: A-
2008 Prediction: 98-64, 1st in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Cleveland Indians

The Indians should've been in the World Series last year, but they choked, something teams are prone to do when they play the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.
They're bringing back pretty much the exact same roster from a year ago, and even though the Tigers loaded up this off-season, the Indians seem to still be the pick in the AL Central.

I think they're gonna be pretty good, a playoff team in fact. But I don't think they're better than the Tigers.

Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Casey Blake
LF David Delluci/Jason Michaels
RF Franklin Gutierrez

Bench
C Kelly Shoppach
OF Delluci/Michaels
IF Josh Barfield
IF Jamey Carroll
IF Andy Marte
OF Shin-Soo Choo

The Indians won 96 games last year, even while Hafner slumped all season, and Sizemore failed to live up to the ridiculous Willie Mays comparisons.
I would fully expect Hafner, who's still only 30, to bounce back with a big year, and while I'm not of the opinon that Sizemore is ever going to be as good as Peter Gammons and Tom Verducci think he is, the guy is the best leadoff hitter in the game.
What I like about the Indians is their collection of second-tier talent.
Last year, many people (myself included) picked the Twins to win because they had such a strong collection of superstars (Hunter, Mauer, Nathan, Santana, Morneau). But one thing we should be learning is that having depth and balance is better than having several stars and several scrubs.

Guys like Ryan Garko, Casey Blake, Jhonny Peralta and Franklin Gutierrez are not stars, and they never will be. But Hafner, Martinez and Sizemore are. You put a core of superstars with an even bigger core of good-not-great players, and you've got a winner.

The only knock on this lineup is the defense. Sizemore is terrific in center, but the rest of them range from bad to average. If I were them I'd switch Cabrera and Peralta.

Rotation
LH CC Sabathia
RH Fausto Carmona
RH Jake Westbrook
RH Paul Byrd
RH Cliff Lee

This is the best rotation in the division. Sabathia appears to have finally harnessed his game, and that paid off in a Cy Young award. Carmona could just as easily have won it. They both won 19 games last year.
Westbrook and Byrd are average middle of the rotation guys, but when you have a pair of aces at the top, that's all you need. Still, I have my doubts about whether Carmona can repeat his performance from last year. The league might start to figure him out to some degree.
Lee had a terrible year last year, but there's not a major need for him to bounce back, because Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers are both ready to step in when needed.

Bullpen
RH Rafael Betancourt
LH Rafael Perez
LH Aaron Fultz
RH Tom Mastny
RH Jensen Lewis
RH Masahide Kobayashi
RH Joe Borowski

Borowski is, like Detroit's Todd Jones, not a very good pitcher. But they work as closers because they have good setup men in front of them, and because their veteran savvy when the game is on the line makes up for mediocre stuff.
Betancourt is maybe the best setup man in baseball, and the rest of the 'pen, a big weakness in '06, has also shaped up into a pretty good unit.

The Indians are going to be good again. The good news for Twins fans is that it is starting to look like this will be Sabathia's last year in Cleveland. With the injuries to Boston's pitching staff I think it's possible that the two best teams in the AL are both in the Central, and I expect them both to make the playoffs. Flip a coin. I like Detroit. But more on them tomorrow.

Cleveland Indians
Manager: Eric Wedge
Lineup: B+
Rotation: A
Bullpen: A-
Bench: B
Defense: C
2008 Prediction: 95-67, 2nd in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Chicago White Sox

Last year, Baseball Prospectus, a stat-nerd organization (and I mean that in a good way) predicted the White Sox, who were two years removed from winning the World Series and had won 90 games the previous year, would go 72-90.
Bad sportswriters who hate advanced statistics seized on that projection as evidence of how stupid and phony all the number crunching "Moneyballistas" really are, but then something happened.

The Sox went 72-90. Right on the button.

I wrote before the season that they were "on their way down", but still predicted they'd win 86 games. But, thanks to a horrendous offense, and age catching up to several veterans, they sucked.
This year, Baseball Prospectus has them going 77-85.

I'd say that seems about right. The Sox would be better off rebuilding, maybe not a total overhaul but at least to the degree the Twins are. Instead, GM Ken Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen are being bullheaded, and think they can compete with the Tigers and Indians.
They can't. In fact, I think they'll struggle to win more games than the Twins and Royals (it's a 3-team race for third...or last, depending on your point of view).

Lineup
SS Orlando Cabrera
CF Nick Swisher
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
C AJ Pierzynski
3B Joe Crede
LF Carlos Quentin/Brian Anderson
2B Juan Uribe

Bench
IF Alexei Ramirez
IF Pablo Ozuna
IF Danny Richar
OF Jerry Owens
C Toby Hall

Cabrera is a terrific pickup at SS. He's a Gold Glover and a .300 hitter with pop. Swisher had a bit of a down year last year, but is still a terrific on-base guy with good power. Putting him in CF could be an adventure, though.
Dye and Konerko slumped a little last year, which is what everyone blames the Sox's struggles on, but they weren't actually all that bad, and neither was Thome. So I don't really understand all these claims that those three are going to bounce back.
Dye hit .254 with 28 homers, after hitting .315 with 44 homers in '06.
I'm sorry, but I'm thinking .254-28 is more typical for Dye than .315-44.
Crede is something of a wild card coming back from an injury, but Josh Fields, who hit 23 homers in 100 games last year, is waiting in the minors (who sends a guy who hit 23 homers to the minors?)
AJ is still a great competitor, but he's average defensively and average at the plate.
The bottom of their order could be pretty bad.

Rotation
LH Mark Buehrle
RH Javier Vazquez
RH Jose Contreras
LH John Danks
RH Gavin Floyd

I thought the Sox could and should trade Buehrle when they had the chance, but he's still only 29, and will give them a legit ace for another few years, whether they're competing or rebuilding.
Vazquez is a solid 2, but after that it gets real dicey. Floyd and Danks are highly regarded youngsters, but both got roughed up last year. I'm thinking Contreras might be washed up.

Bullpen
RH Scott Linebrink
RH Octavio Dotel
RH Mike MacDougal
RH Ehren Wasserman
RH Nick Masset
LH Boone Logan
LH Matt Thornton
RH Bobby Jenks

Aside from Jenks, who's emerged as an elite closer (he retired a record 41 batters in a row at one point last year), this unit was awful last year. Linebrink, who comes in from the NL, brings some stability, and Dotel is an upgrade as well. Wasserman came up mid-season and pitched well.
The others are big question marks.

The White Sox still have a dangerous middle of the order, and Cabrera is a great table-setter to put in front of them. If Floyd and Danks step up, the rotation would be pretty good, and if the bullpen help makes a difference, suddenly the Sox would have the look of a contender.

But my guess is the back end of the rotation will struggle, which would in turn make the lack of depth in the bullpen more of an issue.
And while I like Cabrera and Swisher, I wonder how much the veteran hitters have left.
Also, Ozzie Guillen is somewhat of a crazy person. That's an X-factor.

Chicago White Sox
Manager: Ozzie Guillen
Lineup: C+
Rotation: C
Bullpen: C-
Bench: C+
Defense: C+
2008 Prediction: 75-87, 4th in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Kansas City Royals

The Royals ended a three-year run of 100-loss seasons last year, going 69-93, just one game back of the White Sox for 4th place in the Central.
That's just one reason things are looking up for a team that, aside from the fluke 83-win team of 2003, hasn't contended since the George Brett-Mark Gubicza-Brett Saberhagen days.
New GM Dayton Moore is highly regarded around the league, and count me as one of many who are intrigued by their hiring of Trey Hillman of the Japanese League as their manager.
The signing of Gil Meche to a 5-year, $55 million deal before last season seemed ridiculous at the time, but Meche worked 216 innings and posted a 3.67 ERA, and the market has skyrocketed to where $11 million is practically a bargain for a guy with a sub-4 ERA who can work 200 innings.

In addition, the Royals have finally started to develop a core of solid young players, with Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Mark Teahan the most prominent among them.
The Royals made a push for Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones this off-season, and while they were turned away, it shows that, at the very least, they are starting to take themselves seriously, even if high-priced free agents aren't (they did sign OF Jose Guillen to a 3-year, $36 million deal).

All that said, I'm still not convinced this is a team ready to move out of the cellar.

Yet.

At many positions, they've merely gone from bad to mediocre (SS, 1B, CF, C), and the pitching still has some questions.

Lineup
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
RF Mark Teahen
LF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena

Bench
C Miguel Olivo
IF Esteban German
IF Alberto Callaspo
OF Joey Gathright
IF Ryan Shealy

DeJesus seems to have plateaued as a league-average CF (at best), while Grudzielanek has to age eventually. Teahen hit only 7 homers in 544 ABs last year after hitting 18 the previous year.
Guillen will open the season serving a 15-game steroid suspension, but offers 25-homer power and a great outfield arm when he returns.
Butler and Gordon are big-time prospects. Gordon was overmatched early last year, but the Royals resisted the urge to send him down, and he eventually played his way into a groove, finishing the year at .247 with 15 homers, 14 steals and 36 doubles. He's only 24, and will only get better. Probably a lot better.
Butler has no position, but the not-yet 22-year old slugger batted .292 with 8 homers and 52 RBIs in half a season with the Royals last year. He's a potential .320-30-120 guy.
Buck is an average catcher, and while Pena held his own last year at SS, his days in that spot are numbered with No. 1 pick Mike Moustakas waiting in the wings.

Rotation
RH Gil Meche
RH Brian Bannister
RH Zack Greinke
LH Jorge De La Rosa
RH Kyle Davies/RH Leo Nunez/RH Luke Hochevar

Meche was a legitimate ace last year, while Bannister (12-9, 3.87) emerged as a strong No. 2. I'd be surprised if either of them were able to duplicate their numbers this year, however. Greinke (7-7, 3.69) has a bigger upside than both of them.
De La Rosa (8-12, 5.82) got lit up last year, while the 5th starter spot is a hole. Hochevar, the team's top pitching prospect, will be there before long (he'll open the season in the minors).

Bullpen
LH Ron Mahay
LH Jimmy Gobble
RH Yasuhiko Yabuta
RH Joel Peralta
RH Joakim Soria
LH Neal Musser
RH John Bale

Soria (2.48, 17 saves) was a big surprise last year, while Yabuta brings a solid track record from Japan. Mahay and Gobble were both excellent last year, and Peralta was good, too. Musser and Bale were decent. This is actually a pretty good 'pen.

The Royals have done a good job of digging themselves out of a hole by assembling quality young talent through the amateur and Rule V drafts while adding modestly priced but effective veterans and role players (the latter being something I wish the Twins did better). They're a lot better than they were.
But other than Gordon and Butler, most of them don't project to be truly high level players.
This team is heading in the right direction, but there's still work to do.

Kansas City Royals
Manager: Trey Hillman
Lineup: C-
Rotation: C
Bullpen: B
Bench: C
Defense: B 2008 Prediction: 70-92, 5th in AL Central

Nathan deal close: Punto on his way out?

*Opening day is on the clock, as the Twins host Torii Hunter and the Angels a week from today. That means I plan to actually keep this place updated this week with a look at each team in the AL Central, and my predictions.

That will begin Tuesday.
Today, a couple jottings as spring training winds down.

*The Twins are apparently closing in on a four-year extension for Joe Nathan.
On the surface, it's hard not to be excited about that. The Twins have already lost Hunter and Johan Santana, and the signing of Nathan, on the heels of extensions for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer is another sign that just because the Twins didn't pay Hunter and Santana doesn't mean they're averse to paying marquee players.

Nathan is one of the top three closers in the game, with Jonathan Papelbon and JJ Putz being the other two in my opinion.
Since taking over as the Twins closer, Nathan has saved 160 games in 174 chances, a startling 92 percent success rate.
In 282.1 innings as a Twin, he's struck out 355 batters and allowed just 186 hits, with a 1.94 ERA.
He's 33, and with an athletic, 6-4 frame, likely has another half-dozen good years left.
So there's certainly nothing wrong with having a guy like that around for a few more years.

But I still question whether or not it's the best thing for the Twins to do. Reportedly he'll be paid $11 million a year (a bargain for a player of his caliber - he could've got a lot more elsewhere). He's easily worth that, unless you're talking about a team with a limited payroll and plenty of other options to fill the closer's roll. The Twins, of course, fit both of those qualifications. Pat Neshek, Boof Bonser and, depending on his health, Francisco Liriano, would all likely be very good closers, while Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon and Matt Guerrier could all probably do a decent job, too.

$11 million dollars can be 12 to 15 percent of the Twins payroll. Is it a good idea to use 12 percent of the payroll on a guy who plays in 75 innings a year?
Especially when there's a chance that the Twins won't be able to compete for the AL Central title for the next two years?
But hey, if the best closer in baseball is staying for another four years, I'm not going to complain.

*Just when the Twins seemed to be reconsidering the idea of Liriano beginning the season either in Triple-A or extended spring training in Ft. Myers, the guy went and threw 4 hitless innings against Baltimore on Sunday, fanning five and hitting 94-mph on the gun. That probably increases his chances of making the rotation. Scott Baker could still come back in time from his sore back to make the team as well.
Phil Humber threw two more scoreless innings to lower his spring ERA to 1.29, but if Baker and Liriano both make the rotation, Humber probably goes back to Triple-A.
Glen Perkins was cut (he had a 7.50 ERA), meaning Brian Bass probably gets the last spot in the 'pen. Bass is a 26-year old righthanded swingman who the Twins seem to think deserves his chance. By keeping him, though, Dennys Reyes is the only lefty in the pen. I'm OK with that. I prefer keeping the best 11 or 12 guys, regardless of what arm they throw with.

*Garrett Jones cleared waivers and will go to Triple-A, and infielder Matt Tolbert appears to have taken the lead in the race for the last bench spot. Brian Buscher has been in a huge slump, and though the Twins obviously wanted him to win the job, they appear ready to go with Tolbert, who can play SS, something Buscher can't do.
If they do keep Tolbert, does that mean they'd consider releasing Nick Punto? It's hard to think so (he's guaranteed $2.4 million this year), but even Ron Gardenhire has been noticeably quiet in regards to Little Nicky lately. Punto went 0-4 Sunday, lowering his spring hitting line to .139/.194/.205.
That is awful. Totally awful, even for Punto, and I think even Gardy is running out of patience. He keeps hitting weak pop ups and 260-foot outfield flies, and doesn't seem to have a lot of confidence either (understandably).
If nothing else, he seems destined for the Luis Rodriguez role, as in the backup utility guy who never plays, and is released at the end of the year.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

We're less than two weeks away, and here's how things are shaping up in Ft. Myers.

The Good:
Craig Monroe still isn't worth $3.8 million, but if his .333/.367/.630 hitting line is any indication, he may have something left in the tank.
Delmon Young has not thrown any equipment at any umpires, and he's hit .361/.395/.500
Joe Mauer looks ready to make a run at the MVP award (.458/.548/.833).
Mike Lamb has actually had decent reviews for his defensive work so far, while posting a .381/.435/.524 line at the plate. I have a hunch he might put up better numbers at 3rd than Nick Punto did last year.
Randy Ruiz has pretty much no shot at making the team, but he's been the best hitter on the team through spring, hitting .407/.448/.704. Players like him and Jon Knott (.250/.250/.542) are actually great to have. They provide depth, and it's nice to have people available that are actually capable of contributing when someone goes down.
Meanwhile, Denard Span, the minor leaguer everyone seems to hate, has had a good spring, and might open the season as the starting CF. Thanks to improved patience at the plate, he's hitting .290/.421/.419. I still think he'll be somewhat over matched by big league pitching, but if he can draw a walk here and there and use his speed, that would be a start.
Carlos Gomez is 8 for 8 stealing bases, and has two doubles, two triples and a homer. But his OBP is a mere .267.
I really don't have any idea who has the upper hand in the CF race.

There have been some positive developments on the mound, too.
Phil Humber has worked 12 innings, allowing just 8 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks with 7 Ks.
Brian Bass has allowed two runs in 10.1 innings with 8 Ks and 2 walks.
Dennys Reyes has worked 7 innings, allowing 7 hits and 1 walk and 7 Ks.
Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek have been unhittable as usual.
Boof has allowed only 3 runs in 9 innings, but has walked 5.


The Bad:
Punto has been Punto. He's hitting .172/.250/.241.
Unfortunately, Brendan Harris, his competition for the 2B job, is hitting .176/.222/.265, and has been unimpressive in the field. Justin Morneau has a .359 SLG%.
Brian Buscher opened camp by hitting line drives all over the place, but is probably headed back to Rochester, as his hitting line has plummeted to .148/.258/.259.
Matt Guerrier has a 6.43 ERA. Juan Rincon has walked 6 batters in 6 innings.
Kevin Slowey had 13 Ks in 10 innings, but has allowed 17 hits, and has a 5.94 ERA. Glen Perkins has a 5.43 ERA, and only 6 Ks in 11 innnings.

The Ugly:
Livan Hernandez has worked 13 innings and allowed 15 runs on 24 hits.
Brian Duensing was thought to be a darkhorse candidate for the rotation, but was one of the first cuts after posting a 19.29 ERA.
Randy Keisler, a veteran lefty, had an outside shot to make the team as a second lefty out of the pen, and while his 4.82 ERA isn't terrible, he has walked 8 in 9 innings.
Garrett Jones, who seems to have a leg up on the final roster spot, hit a monstrous homerun off Joba Chamberlain in a nationally televised game two weeks ago, but in his other 24 at-bats, he's managed 3 singles, a double and 9 Ks.