Sunday, April 27, 2008

May I call you Rondellmon?


It's early, so I'm not going to write anyone off. But while most of my friends and fellow Twins fans bitch and moan about Mike Lamb (he'll end up at .275 with 15 homers, so quit bitching) and Joe Mauer (he's never going to hit homers, deal with it), I find myself wondering when Delmon Young is going to put up numbers that are better than Nick Punto's.
OK, that's pushing it, but Delmon is currently getting out-OPS'd by Johan Santana. So are the Twins as a team, actually.

Last year in Tampa, Young hit .288 with 93 RBI, and those are two numbers that would indicate he had a good-but-not-great season. And at his age, it would stand to reason he's only going to get better. I've written that myself, and I still believe it to be true.
On the other hand, .288 isn't all that great when it comes with only 26 walks. That's a .316 OBP, and that's not very good. In addition he had only 13 homers, and he played in all 162 games. The guy had 645 at-bats. 13 homers in 645 ABs? I think Boof Bonser would hit more than 13 bombs if he got that many chances.

Young has been compared to various hall of fame players (always unfair, no matter how good a young guy actually is) and many, including myself, speculated that he might be able to cover Torri Hunter's offense as soon as this year. But he actually is closer to Carlos Gomez than Torii Hunter at this point. You can see the talent, but he just looks really raw. Not very patient with a very long swing. So far he's basically filled the void left by Rondell White.
Through 93 ABs entering play Sunday, DY had a miserable .289 OBP and even worse .312 slugging percentage. No homers, 3 doubles and a triple. And if my memory serves me correct, two of those three doubles came because he hustled against lazy OF's to get an extra base on a single. It's great that he did that, but it shows his power numbers could be even worse.

Now you can chalk it all up to his youth, and for now, I'll probably do that myself in the interest of staying positive with a young prospect. But in looking at his minor league numbers, it's clear that the higher Young has climbed, the less he's hit for power.
He hit 25 homers in the Sally League (A+) in 2004, then hit 20 dongs in only 84 games at Double-A in '05, at the age of 19. To be doing that at 19 is really impressive, and that's why, at the time, he was arguably the top hitting prospect in all of baseball.
But when he moved to Triple-A, he stopped hitting home runs.
6 homers in 52 games in 2005. 8 in 86 games in 2006. And 13 in 645 at-bats last year.

If Young doesn't hit homers, he won't be nearly as valuable, because he doesn't get on base much and doesn't play a premium defensive position. Torii Hunter never had a great OBP, but because he hit 25-30 homers and was a Gold Glove CF, his on-base skills didn't much matter.

Think of it this way. Joe Mauer's lack of power is annoying, yes. But he usually has a .400 OBP and is one of the best defensive players in the league at the most difficult position in the sport.

Imagine Young hitting .300 with 8 homers just like Mauer, but doing it in left field, with a .325 OBP. Would you trade the best pitching prospect in your organization for that?

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Coomer and Bremer can't figure out why Mauer was hitting 2nd.
-Oh, I don't know. Because he's a pussy?

Also, the Twins offense is shit.

Anonymous said...

Kubel's OPS+ is 83. That's lower than Tyner's career OPS+ as a Twin.

Anonymous said...

Mauer calls a terrible game. He doesn't know his pitchers very well.
Up until his last start, Boof was only throwing 4-5 curveballs a game. 4-5? And that is one of his better pitches!
Good thing the Twins have 1 coach on their staff (Rick Anderson). He noticed and corrected this trend.

Anonymous said...

Zim - we were at the game Sunday - wow - the Twins fought back and looked good - Gomez is the real deal covering turf in the outfield

PS Punto slide into third, just to be sure - he rocks

--Lee Schoenbeck