Monday, July 30, 2007

Casilla era begins, Garnett era ends





The Twins did the right thing and traded Luis Castillo to the Mets for minor leaguers Drew (Chris?) Butera, son of Big League Sal, and Dustin Martin.
Neither of them are particularly intriguing prospects. Butera, like his dad, is excellent behind the dish but can't hit a lick. Martin has some upside as he's supposedly a great athlete, but expecting him to become more than another Michael Ryan or Josh Rabe would be pushing it.
Will the Twins current lineup suffer without Castillo? Absolutely.
Castillo was exactly what the Twins needed when they got him. They had a black hole at 2B, and Castillo filled it brilliantly, getting on base regularly, working counts, and generally being a well-above average player in his 1 2/3 years on the team.

But, a couple of things.
*While Castillo was a great stop-gap at 2B while the Twins tried to find a young replacement to develop (which they did, more on that later), he was also vastly overrated (if that sounds like I'm contradicting myself, part of Castillo's overratedness is because of how bad his predecessor Luis Rivas was at the end).
For example, while Castillo led the team with a .304 average at the time of the trade, about 95 percent of his hits were singles. Essentially, his .304 average with no extra base power is equivalent to Christian Guzman's .270 with a few doubles, triples and homers. He's also been walking less this year.
Durability was also a problem, and perhaps his bad knees were the reason Castillo didn't always look like he was giving 100 percent.
He had a record-long errorless streak, but his range seems to have lessened in just the short time he's been a Twin.
*Whether it's Kevin Garnett or Luis Castillo, the best time to trade a player is right when he's approaching the decline period of his career. At 31, Castillo isn't 'done' or 'over the hill' or even 'past his prime', but he'll be arriving there soon. Now is the time to move him.
*They weren't going to sign him anyway.
*Alexi Casilla is almost ready. By dealing Castillo, Casilla now has a couple months to get more comfortable in the bigs so he's not starting cold next spring. Casilla won't bat .304 like Castillo, but he might match him in OBP and will surpass him in SLG. He'll also steal more bases and get to more balls in the field.
My guess is that by sometime next year - 2009 at the latest, Casilla will be an impact type top of the order guy.

Terry Ryan says the trade isn't a white flag, or a sign that the Twins are sellers. But they aren't likely to add any significant players tomorrow. If any more moves are made, expect it to be trading Juan Rincon and/or Carlos Silva. It's possible the Twins will take a flier on Morgan Ensberg, mentioned in yesterday's post, after the 10-day designation period expires.

*Are the Twins out of it? No. With so many games left against Cleveland there's time. I just don't think they have a good enough of a team to win 70 percent of their games the rest of the way. But they've won three in a row just when it looked like their season was screwed. We'll see what happens.

*How about Matt Garza (1.37 ERA), and Scott Baker. Baker is now 5-4 with a 4.88 ERA.
When Baker went through a rough stretch in June the voices to dump him got very loud. I continued to defend him. I tried to tell you people he was a good pitcher and would turn out fine. You should really listen to me.
He's pitched five innings or more in 8 straight starts, and allowed fewer than four runs in six of them. His ERA in that time is 3.65.
As for Garza, it looks like he's the stud we hoped for. He was nasty on Sunday.

*As for the Garnett trade, I'm too depressed to break it down, but suffice it to say that, even though it's probably the right thing for the player and the franchise, it's a sad, sad deal for the entire region.
I remember last winter, sitting at Wild Wings watching a horrible, meaningless Wolves game only because there was nothing else on. They were getting killed by Memphis, the worst team in the NBA, and Garnett was all over the place. Offense, defense, transition, knocking balls down, grabbing boards, diving into the crowd, chasing loose balls - in a game where no one would've blamed him for mailing it in, he gave a virtuoso performance, just like he did every single night he wore a T-Wolves uniform.
I remember thinking as I watched it that night, through a haze of Jack Daniels and Coke, that I should hurry up and have a son, so that he would be able to watch Garnett play before he retired.
That's why, even if the trade propels the Wolves to the NBA Finals, it makes me sad.
He was (warning, potentially controversial statement coming) easily the greatest athlete the Twins Cities have ever had.
When it comes to the total package of ability, loyalty, personality, effort and intangibles, Garnett absolutely blows away Kirby Puckett, Fran Tarkenton, Cris Carter, Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew, Randy Moss, whoever (no Dad and Greg, Chuck Foreman doesn't even make the conversation).
It's a sad, sad day, no matter what happens in the aftermath.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tyner fits in the lead off spot quite nicely. He works counts and with regular at bats, will hit around .300. Also, the guy could potentially hit 2-3 homeruns a year if they would trim about 3' off the baggie in right.

Anonymous said...

Garnett's gone. Boohoo. Shame on you for talking NBA. It looks to me that this is another Herschel Walker trade, but this one actually benefits the Minnesota interests.

Anonymous said...

Word has it; Marnie Gellner may not be present for tonight's Twins/Royals game. Apparently she went a little crazy after hearing the news of KG's probable departure. Reportably she was pulled over last night for speeding. When further questioned, she admitted she was on her way to Kevin McHale's residence to "keep black snake moan." In her possession was a Ron Coomer Louisville Slugger and a box of adult diapers. She was wearing one of the diapers to prevent bathroom stops; a page from crazy astronaut lady's book.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone work harder at doing nothing than Terry Ryan?

Anonymous said...

Terry Ryan has the nads the size of a turtle. A Really small turtle. He's so comfortable with all his .220 hitters, with slugging %'s equal to, or a little bit higher than their batting avg's. Plus, they battle, and sometimes put good swings on the ball.

Anonymous said...

Garrrr, yee won't be hearing me complaining bout good swings on the ball. But I be belly aching bout the trade which be forcing Luis to walk the plank to New York. Arrgggghhhh we be gettin nothing in return.

Anonymous said...

Lew Ford put 2 good swings on the ball last night, and he lost another fly ball in the ceiling. He'll be back out there tonight, to hopefully put good swings on the ball again.

Even Johann Santana thinks Terry Ryan is a big Pu**y. He wants no part of TR's future anymore, according to his quotes in the Star Tribune today.

Anonymous said...

Also, Lew Ford continued his "scrappy" play on the base paths.

-Perhaps some of what Johan said will prompt Terry Ryan to sign some good players prior to the 08 season in attempt to appease Santana. Though I'm guessing he won't. He'll bring in Jeff Conine.

ZSS said...

I heard there was a collapse in Minneapolis today. Naturally, I assumed it was the Twins. I didn't think it was the I-35W bridge over the Mississippi.

ZSS said...

Too bad for the people on it though, my aunt and uncle cross that bridge everyday.

Anonymous said...

Noooo!!!! Too soon, too soon.

Anonymous said...

"It's a sad, sad day, no matter what happens in the aftermath."

Dude, you were as wrong as wrong could ever be about that statement.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, what a dick. How could he not have known a bridge would collapse and kill a bunch of people.

Anonymous said...

I was watching FSN when the trade happened and Castillo and Torii were shaking hands for the last time as Twins. Torii just had this "I take a pay cut to get great players around me. Sacrifice to win a championship and the high ups fuck me like this?," look on his face. I don't blame Torii for squeazing the Twins dry the next time his contract comes up.
For shame Terry Ryan, you poor excuse for a dried up stinky dick-licker. You should be under that bridge.

Anonymous said...

why the fuck would they keep punto and let go of cirillo. I cant stand the fucking twins management anymore, this is getting out of hand, who the hell are they gonna have play center field next year, cuz its not gonna be torii hunter.