Merry Xmas and stuff

So I guess you know you're getting old when you start getting books for Christmas instead of video games.
I have a lot of reading to do.
Now on my to-do list are The Bad Guys Won by Jeff Pearlman and 3 Nights in August by Buzz Bissinger. Apparently three more books are on the way via UPS according to my wife, and while one of them is undoubtedly The Replacements: All Over But the Shouting - about the greatest American rock band of all time, I'm assuming the other two are probably going to be about baseball.

And in perhaps a further sign that I'm getting old, I'm actually looking forward to reading all of them. I recently finished The Cheaters Guide to Baseball by ussmariner blogger Derek Zumsteg, and it kind of reinvigorated my appetite for good baseball reading.

Reading about baseball (and other stuff) as a kid not only primed me for my present career as a sports writer, but it also probably kept me from either dropping out of or flunking out of high school.
High school was impossibly stupid, the most pointless thing that ever happened to me, but going to class gave me a time and a place to get a lot of reading done. I read four John Irving novels and a few baseball books in my junior year alone, and I didn't do any of it at home during my free time. That's what makes it harder to read as an adult. To do it, I'd actually have to give up some of my own free time. But I'm willing. I'll get started tomorrow.

I'm assuming if you take the time to read this blog, that means you're literate enough to have read a book cover to cover before, and enjoy baseball to some degree, so while I'm on the subject, here are some of the baseball books I've enjoyed best.

*I Love This Game - Kirby Puckett
Puck's autobiography is extremely light weight, and if you aren't a Twins fans or didn't follow his career somewhat closely, you might not have much reason to read it. But it's a fast-moving story that covers Kirby's entire life in pretty good detail. I particularly enjoyed the parts about Kirby's flirtation with leaving the Twins to sign with the Red Sox in the early 90's. He was candid about the situation and it gave a telling glimpse into how the Pohlad's operate.
The books strength is in how it lets Puckett's shiny disposition come to life. Puckett's ex-wife, Tonya, and others made efforts to portray Kirby's "lovable" side as a bogus alter-ego in the later stages of his life, and it's pretty clear that he did have a dark side. But anyone who reads this book will come away confident that he was a great ambassador of the game, a great teammate, and someone who truly did care a great deal about the fans.

*The Mick - Mickey Mantle
Great because Mick pulls no punches. If memory serves (I read it several years ago) he doesn't talk much about his womanizing, and the controversial liver transplant didn't take place until later, but he's otherwise pretty unflinching in his battles with excessive drinking and partying. His story of rising from the Oklahoma farm to the Yankees is inspiring, but the highlights are certainly his late night shenanigans with Billy Martin, many of which had me laughing out loud. The second funniest baseball book I ever read.

*I Ain't an Athlete, Lady - John Kruk
The funniest baseball book I ever read. Written well before Kruk became a terrible ESPN analyst, this book was the reason I knew Kruk was a terrible choice for an analyst the day he was hired. He's anti-intellectual. A Big Mac-and-beer type of guy who never took two seconds to analyze himself, much less the hows and whys of MLB.
It makes for a bad analyst but a terrifically entertaining storyteller. Kruk tells stories about living with a rowdy family, playing with rowdy teammates, and the humorous, aw-shucks demeanor that overshadowed what a great player he was throughout his career is ever-present , but the highlights are without a doubt the stories of the '93 Phillies team and his days playing for Larry Bowa. If you read this book, you'll never look at Bowa - currently a Yankee coach and formerly an ESPN analyst himself - the same way again.

*The Cheaters Guide to Baseball - Derek Zumsteg
Both funny and enlightening, the Mariner blogger does a terrific job of covering the history of cheating in baseball from the dirty play and gambling scandals of the 1800s to the steroid scandals of today. Spectacularly researched, yet it's more than a history, it also does a great job of pointing out (and celebrating) the fine line in baseball between what is considered cheating (steroids, corked bats) and what is considered gamesmanship (stealing signs, lying to umpires). The chapter on the ways a groundskeeper and his crew can affect a game is fascinating.

*Season of Dreams - Tom Kelly with Ted Robinson
Robinson was the Dick Bremer for the '91 Twins, and he does a terrific job of taking Tom Kelly's retelling of the season and putting it in proper context and actually building suspense in a non-fiction book. For anyone who remembers the '91 season as vividly as I do, it's an absolute must-read. From the 2-9 start to the 15-game winning streak to the playoff push, reading it again recently was like looking through a high school yearbook. Loved it.

*Throwin' Heat - Nolan Ryan
Reading this one you can actually hear Nolan's deep, twangy Texas drawl as he recounts an amazing career that spanned parts of four decades. Not just a bunch of stories from his career, but a look into his thought processes on the mound, and how tough it was for a conservative farm boy from Texas to deal with immense celebrity and be a family man at the same time.

*The 20th Century Baseball Chronicle - David Nemec
If there was a class on baseball history (I'm sure there is somewhere) this would be the textbook. Weighing in at five pounds and over 600 full-color pages, it's chock full of stories, photos, stats and figures from each year from 1900-1991.
I learned more about baseball history from this book than any other source ever.

*Hi Everybody - Herb Carneal
If you didn't spend a large number of your summer days and nights with Herb's smooth and steady voice keeping you company while working on the mower in the garage, or relaxing by the lake, or making a long drive, this book won't appeal to you. But if Herb was a big part of your life, and if you visit this blog regularly he probably was, you'll enjoy it. It's like spending a few hours in the cheap seats with your Grandpa.

*Summer of '49 - David Halberstam
So good I've read it three times.
Meticulously researched and beautifully written, one of the greatest American writers set out to create a historical account of one of baseball's greatest pennant races and he wound up writing a novel. Seriously, it's nearly impossible for a non-fiction book to be so totally engrossing.
You don't have to be old enough to remember that season, and you don't have to be a Red Sox or Yankees fan (much of the story focuses on those two). In fact, you wouldn't even have to be a baseball fan to enjoy this book.
I was born in 1980, and I feel like I know exactly what baseball, and America's relationship with it, was like in 1949.

To contend or not to contend?

I'm starting to think that if the Twins were to keep Johan Santana and Joe Nathan for the 2008 season, they might be able to contend for a playoff spot.
If they didn't trade Johan of course, that would mean they didn't acquire Jacoby Ellsbury or Melky Cabrera. So I'm guessing they'd sign Kenny Lofton to play CF.
So this would be the likely roster.

CF Kenny Lofton
2B Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

Bench
Mike Redmond
Craig Monroe
Nick Punto
Jason Pridie
(Alexi Casilla - if they only keep 11 pitchers)

Rotation
Johan Santana
Francisco Liriano
Scott Baker
Boof Bonser
Kevin Slowey

Bullpen
Matt Guerrier
Juan Rincon
Pat Neshek
Dennys Reyes
Jesse Crain
(Glen Perkins - if they keep 12 pitchers)
Joe Nathan

There are a lot of question marks, obviously, like Liriano's health, Boof's weight and conditioning, Rincon's ability to bounce back, Lamb and Harris playing every day in the IF; but if things go right like they did in 2006, this team would be good enough to contend (though if Detroit plays up to its talent we're probably talking wild card).

If they trade Santana they probably get either Phil Hughes or Jon Lester in return, and while both of those guys are ready to be quality big leaguers right now, they're not ready to be aces - yet. Baker would become the "veteran" of the staff.

And if Santana is traded than you have to trade Nathan next. He's in the last year of his contract, and when you consider the washed-up Eric Gagne just got a $10 million, 1-year deal, it's safe to say Joey will be way out of the Twins price range next off-season (and even if they could afford it I wouldn't do it. Smart teams don't pay $10-$15 million a year for a closer. They also don't pay $11 million a year for Carlos Silva, which the Mariners are about to do.)

I'm still about 90% sure the Twins are going to trade Johan. Although I've also said that I'd be willing to let him walk after this year for a World Series ring. Could they do it? It'd be a big longshot, and it'd be the risk of all risks to try.
What if they kept him, went 93-69 but still missed the playoffs? At that point you lost out on a chance to get Hughes or Ellsbury, lose Johan for nothing, and don't go to the postseason. That'd be tough to swallow.

There have been reports that Santana wants a 7-year contract, and that would be a risky thing for the Yankees or Red Sox, let alone the Twins. But a 5-year, $120 deal might not be as ridiculous as it sounds.

Think about it.

Right now it seems like suicide for the Twins to commit such a large chunk of their payroll to one player. But look at how quickly the market inflates each year. Last year, the whole world thought Royals GM Dayton Moore was insane for giving Gil Meche a 5-year, $55 million deal. Now it seems like a decent investment, and Silva - a lesser pitcher - is getting the same deal and no one bats an eye.

By 2010 the going rate for an ace could be $35 million a year. If they signed Santana now for $20-$25 million per, it'd probably be a bargain in a few years. While the Twins do work on a budget, they're not as "small market" as the front-office staff likes you to believe. The payroll will probably be over $100 million by 2009.

To be clear, I'm just sort of kicking some thoughts around. I still expect Santana to be traded. I just wonder what exactly the team will be looking to accomplish in 2008 if and when they do.

An actual infield

Last year the Twins infield consisted of Justin Morneau, Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto when the season began. All four were coming off excellent seasons.
But Punto predictably went back to hitting like a utility infielder, Bartlett saw his offensive production drop considerably, and Castillo's primary skills (hitting for a good average and getting on base at a decent clip) were minimized by the failures of the rest of the lineup, and he was traded as the Twins fell out of the race.
That left the Twins with some work to do this off-season.
They included Bartlett in a trade with Tampa Bay to acquire OF Delmon Young and the strong-hitting, average-fieldeing Brendan Harris, and this weekend signed the left side of the Houston Astros 2006 IF; SS Adam Everett (1 year, $2.8 million) and 3B Mike Lamb (2 years, $6.6 million with a team option for 2010).

When Everett signed, I wrote that while his fielding is regarded as being superb, he was a lesser total package than Bartlett. That may prove to be the case, but in looking at the big picture, his signing makes a little more sense and starts to look a little better.
Harris has limited range at 2B, and Lamb is regarded as a well-below average defender. He played a lot of 1B in Houston, and other teams looking to sign him apparently pictured him as a DH/1B.
But Everett, who some defensive studies have proclaimed to be the premier defensive player of the current era, can certainly lessen the effects of Harris and Lamb's shortcomings, especially Lamb's.
What the Twins have essentially done is give themselves an infield that consists of three above average hitters, who are good (Morneau), average (Harris) and poor (Lamb) defensively, and one guy who is a terrible hitter and a world class defender, and that guy is playing the most important position.

3B is at the moment one of the weakest positions in baseball. After A-Rod and Mike Lowell re-upped with the Yanks and Sox, Lamb was probably the best 3B available. Seriously.
Lamb has never had more than 381 ABs in a season, and he's been playing in an extreme hitter friendly ballpark, but his career line of .281/.339/.427 is obviously much, much better than Punto, or Luis Rodriguez, Tony Batista, etc. In the last two years in particular, Lamb, who is 32 and lefthanded, has been very good at the plate.
In '06 he hit .307/.361/.475, and last year he hit .289/.366/.453.
He'll struggle defensively and he might not quite reproduce those numbers in the AL, but even a .270/.330/.440 line would make him a huge, huge upgrade at 3B.
The other good news is the move means Craig Monroe will not be an everyday player. The Twins lineup is almost set, and it actually looks pretty good (nowhere near as good as Detroit's obviously, but possibly as good as the one that won 96 games in 2006).

CF Jacoby Ellsbury/Melky Cabrera (still assuming Johan's gonna go)
2B Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The 1 thru 8 spots will all be above league average, and several of them could be considerably better than that.

One thing seems kind of weird, though. Neither Everett or Young, or Monroe, are particularly young, so they would seem to be added with the goal of competing in 2008. If the Twins trade Santana, they won't have the pitching to compete. If they kept him, and Francisco Liriano actually came back strong, they suddenly might be good enough to have a shot at the playoffs in '08.
I just wonder what exactly the goal is. They won't be bad next year, even if they do trade Johan (and by the way, the trade of Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks significantly helps the Twins leverage, and the Yanks have confirmed they're still in the hunt).
But if they move Johan with an eye to the future, will Everett and Lamb be a part of it?

Either way, it's very encouraging that Bill Smith is giving his manager quality parts with which to build a lineup, rather than taking ill-advised fliers on washed up veterans, or asking too much of overmatched players.

Twins sign Everett....Mitchell report

The Twins have signed SS Adam Everett, who became expendable from the Houston Astros one day after they landed Miguel Tejada in a six-player trade.

Here's the lowdown on Everett. Defensively he is very, very good. And, unlike guys like Nick Punto and Juan Castro, his terrific defensive reputation is real - based on actual metrics such as zone rating and range factor - not just a made-up reputation built off a couple of highlight plays that showed up on Sportscenter. Jason Bartlett was a very good shortstop, Everett is better. In fact, many regard him as the absolute, No. 1 best defensive shortstop in baseball. That will be beneficial to a young pitching staff.

That's the good news. Here's the bad. He can't hit.
For his career, he's hit .248/.299/.357 in 2,145 at-bats. That's near identical to Punto's .245/.314/.321 career line. Everett has a little more power - he hit 11 homers in 2005 - but he won't draw near as many walks as Punto can.
'05 was Everett's best year, as he hit .248/.290/.364 with 11 homers, 54 RBI, 28 doubles and 21 steals. But in the last two years he's posted Punto-ish OPS+'s of 64 and 56.
In an injury-plagued '07 he hit .232/.281/.318. You thought Punto's '07 season was historically bad (it was) - he had a 52 OPS+, just 4 points lower than Everett's.
The gain in defense from replacing Bartlett with Everett is not enough to negate the loss in offense in my opinion. Factor in that Everett is two years older than Bartlett, and it's clear that Bartlett is the better total package, a factor that deals another blow to the earlier trade with Tampa that sent Bartlett to the Rays.
I do get the feeling that this could be another sign the Twins are strongly considering moving Michael Cuddyer back to 3B. While you can get away with having a good-field, no-hit shortstop such as Punto or Everett in the lineup, you can't do it with another banjo-hitter at 3rd, and there aren't a lot of options out there for a starting 3B. If the Twins do move Cuddy back to the hot corner, the Twins lineup probably looks like this.

CF Ellsbury/Crisp/Melky
2B Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
3B Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
RF Delmon Young
LF Jason Kubel
DH Craig Monroe
SS Adam Everett

That certainly looks better than last year's lineup, but the obvious problem is that moving Cuddyer into the infield means Craig Monroe becomes an everyday player, unless another bat is brought in (and considering they're paying Monroe $3.82 million, that's highly unlikely). Monroe is a decent risk as a 4th OF, platoon guy (if overly expensive), but with him playing every day, you've got back to back guys at the bottom of the order who will almost certainly fail to provide a .300 on-base percentage.

*The big names on the Mitchell report are obviously Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, Miguel Tejada, Mo Vaughn, Kevin Brown, Brian Roberts and some others.
There were quite a few Twins on the list, notably Rondell White, Chuck Knoblauch, Chad Allen, Denny Neagle and Dan Naulty.
The only really smoking hot gun to come from the report, in my opinion, is the direct testimony of injection on Clemens and Pettite by a trainer. None of those Twins names surprise me, and I still am almost certain that Marty Cordova and Bobby Kielty, among others, used steroids.
I could probably write for two hours about the moral implications of steroids, who's at fault, what should be done and so forth, but in short, my general opinion is that the game is at fault. Players can't be blamed for trying to keep up. A lot of guys - Naulty is a good example - took steroids literally to survive in the game, to put food on the table. It isn't always a case of just trying to hit more homeruns. The game allowed an environment to come into existence in which players had to make the impossibly difficult choice of taking steroids to keep up, or find another job.
If I were a guy hitting .260 in Triple-A, I absolutely would've taken steroids to bump me up to a level where I could reach the big leagues. At the time, it wasn't a lot different than scuffing a ball or maybe even stealing signs.
Now that it's illegal they can punish, but any use that took place before testing is the fault of the game's administration, not the players.

So long Tyner

I'm in Tennessee, hitting on chicks with six teeth, but I still have internet, so I managed to stumble onto the news that the Twins signed Craig Monroe to a 1-year, $3.82 million deal, and non-tendered Jason Tyner, everyone's favorite singles hitter.

While I've spent an inordinate amount of time and space on this blog pointing out that Tyner isn't a particularly good major leaguer despite a nice looking batting average, I'm a little sad to see him go.
He had a knack for getting important hits, he played hard, could play CF fairly adequately, and yes, he did always contribute a good batting average. But I still agree with the decision to keep Monroe over Tyner. Monroe is coming off a terrible year, in which he hit .219, but in 2006 he hit 28 homers while batting .255/.301/.482.
This is a good case to point out how Tyner's batting average doesn't tell the whole story. Tyner hit .286 to Monroe's .219, and yet their OPS was almost identical. And this is comparing Monroe's worst year to Tyner's second-best.
Monroe is also probably a better OF than the noodle-armed Tyner.
The Twins are going to end up with either Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp or Melky Cabrera in CF, and that leaves Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young and Monroe to fill the other spots. There are rumors that Cuddyer could be moved back to 3B if the Twins can't find a suitable replacement, and if that happens, you'll likely see Young in RF, Kubel/Monroe in LF, and Jason Pridie probably makes the team as a backup. The good news is that Tyner's 2 1/2 year stint with the Twins probably allowed him to solidify his bank account a little bit, and was almost surely productive enough to entice a team with lesser aspirations to give him a job. I wish him well.

What I like about the Twins decision to cut Tyner loose is that it is another piece of evidence that suggests Bill Smith actually does some homework, actually analyzes the numbers beyond Avg., HR and RBI. Lew Ford and Tyner were the kind of players that Ron Gardenhire would find a spot for no matter how terrible they were, and it's good to know that Smith isn't as stubbornly loyal to guys that suck. If the Twins had another option for a utility IF, I'm sure they would've jettisoned Nick Punto by now as well.

BooSox, and Tigers

You probably read all over the place Tuesday that the Twins were closing on a deal with the Red Sox, and that the Yankees were out of the running.
I spent much of the day trying not to throw up at the idea of the Twins giving the best team in baseball -the Red Sox - a pitcher they don't even need, Johan Santana, for Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp and Justin Masterson.
However as the night wore on the deal never happened, and it sounds like it isn't as close as it may have been reported. I can only hope that the Twins are still just trying to squeeze more out of the Yankees, because the Sox deal isn't that good.

In Lester, the Twins get a 24-year old lefty who has posted a 4.68 ERA in 144 innings over two years with the Sox. In 483 minor league innings he's posted a 3.33 ERA with 446 Ks, 429 hits and 203 walks. Those numbers are good. They are not great. This, to me, doesn't seem like the kind of guy you build a trade for a 29-year old two-time Cy Young award winner around.

Crisp isn't as bad as some are making him out to be. He's hit just .264 and .268 in two years with Boston, with only 14 total homers after two outstanding years in Cleveland. But he does steal a lot of bases and is a great with the glove. He's only 28. He could still rebound with a change of scenery. But he's kinda spendy, with two years left on a 3-year, $15.75 million deal.

Lowrie is being advertised as a SS, but he ain't one. He's a 2B. He's hit pretty well in the minors - he had a .509 SLG in half a season at Triple-A last year, but is he likely to improve on Brendan Harris' .286/.343/.434 numbers? No, so why bother.

Masterson is a 6-6 righty whose ERA last year was 4.33 in 27 starts split between A and AA.

Seriously, people, this is not enough.

Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera straight up for Johan would be better if you ask me.
Hughes, it seems almost obviously, is considerably better than Lester, and Cabrera is already as good as Coco, and a lot younger and cheaper. What am I missing here? Why not take the Yankees deal? You're getting a young, cheap, ace and a CF who's above league average at the age of 23.

It's important to note that while Hank Steinbrenner has told the media the Yanks are done dealing with the Twins, Bill Smith and his staff say the Yankees have not told them they're out of it. My guess is the Yankees are still players in this thing.
And let's think about this critically for a minute.
The Sox don't need Santana. Really, they don't need him. They have Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matzusaka, Tim Wakefield and if they keep him, Lester, to make a pretty goddamn good 5-man ro'.
Why trade decent prospects to add $150 million in salary? Just to keep him from the Yankees?

And the Yankees, no matter what they say, have to make this deal if they're going to keep up with Boston and Detroit (more on them in a minute). The Bombers offense is amazing, but they haven't won a World Series since 2000 for a reason - they don't have a No. 1. They haven't had a No. 1.
Chien-Ming Wang is not an ace. Andy Petitte, Mike Mussina and Roger Clemens, at their ages, are not aces.
Just like Randy Johnson, Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Jon Leiber, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras, David Wells and Jeff Weaver weren't when the Yankes brought them in after it was too late for them to make a difference.
With Santana, it's not too late. He's still an ace.

The Yanks' offense is good enough to get to the playoffs, but without Santana they don't have a prayer in a playoff series against Anaheim or Cleveland, let alone Boston or Detroit.

Here's what the Yanks have to decide. Can they let Boston, Detroit and Anaheim take over the AL for a couple years, be patient, and wait for Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain to develop?
Or do they have to play for a World Series ring every year, in which case they trade the farm for Johan and worry about the repercussions later?
If they were smart, they'd swallow hard and take the former option. But if the Twins are lucky, Hank will get antsy, realize his team can't win in 2008 without Johan, and push for the deal.

* If the Sox land Johan it would make them seem invincible. At least it would've, until the Tigers pulled off the trade of the century.
Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for catcher Mike Rabelo, pitcher Andrew Miller, OF Cameron Maybin and three other minor leaguers.

In case you don't follow the National League all that close, know that Cabrera is basically A-Rod, and Willis, before a poor 2007, was Santana.
Cabrera is 24, and has posted an OPS near 1.000 for three straight years. He just puts up giant, giant numbers. In Detroit's lineup he's likely to hit .340 with 50 doubles and 30 homers.

That's not to say this isn't a risky deal for Detroit.
Willis had a 5.17 ERA last year, one year after winning 22 games, and the NL is the weaker offensive league.
And they gave up a ton. Rabelo's a nice player, and Miller and Maybin are the team's prized prospects. The other three guys in the deal are also considered high quality prospects. The Tigers essentially gutted their minor-league system.
But why not? At some point you have to go for it, and I mean really go for it, and that's what they're doing. I say good for them. Mitch Albom of the freep said prospects are like money. You work hard to save money, but you have to remember what you're saving it for in the first place. To spend it eventually.

What this means to the Twins is that it's officially safe to use 2008 as a rebuilding year. I've picked the Twins to win the AL Central every year from 2002-2007, and while I've only been wrong twice, I don't think I'll be picking them again in '08.

Here's the Tigers lineup.
CF Curtis Granderson 2B Placido Polanco 3B Miguel Cabrera RF Magglio Ordonez DH Gary Sheffield 1B Carlos Guillen C Ivan Rodriguez LF Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames SS Edgar Renteria

Sean Casey, who would be the Twins No. 3 hitter, is apparently now a bench player.

Keep him?

As of midnight Monday, a few sources were reporting that trade discussions with the Yankees involving Johan Santana were hitting an impasse.
The Twins insisted that the Yanks include Ian Kennedy along with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera, a deal the Yankees would have to be retarded to make.
The Twins then said, OK, if you don't want to include Kennedy, then throw in P Alan Horne and OF Austin Jackson. That didn't make the Bombers any happier, and now they're apparently considering backing out of the deal.

There are justifiable concerns that Bill Smith could overplay this thing and get left with his dick in his hand, but he seems unconcerned by that possibility, willing to fall back on keeping Santana for 2008, which, in case you forget, he is under contract to the Twins for $13 million.

Santana angrily refuted reports that he's trying to push the Twins into a trade, and appears to be open to returning to them. He also reportedly would still be happy to listen to contract extension offers from the Twins. But of course, those offers are going to have to be in the $120-$150 million range for five or six years.
While I'm certainly glad to hear that Johan is maintaining a good rapport with the Twins organization, committing that much money for that many years to Santana, who could (and I stress could) be in decline already, would be a mistake.
So that means they can keep him, try to build the 2008 team around him and then let him walk (likely to the Yankees) for nothing but compensatory draft picks after the year.
Or, they can keep trying to trade him right up to the trading deadline. Santana's agent, Peter Greenberg, declined to say if Johan would exercise his no-trade clause during the season, but the uncertainty is there.

Theoretically, if the Twins were able to add a SS, CF and 3B, I might be OK with getting one more big year out of Johan and then saying goodbye. For a World Series ring, I'd trade losing him for nothing.
But is that a realistic possibility? Maybe, but not likely.

That's why I think they need to make the trade with the Yankees. Cabrera will be an above-average CF, maybe even a really good one. There's no guarantee that Hughes will be all he can be, but the odds are good that he'll be pretty special. And they'll both be cheap for awhile.

So the more I think about it, it seems as though I've convinced myself that the Twins have to trade Santana. I think I might actually be disappointed if they don't move him.
That's sad, because I like him. I just don't think he's going to post anymore seasons with a 2.50 ERA, and I love the idea of having Hughes to build the rotation around, with Cabrera in CF.

The Red Sox have said they're open to talking trade as long as the Twins want to, so my guess is the Yankees will stay in the hunt. The "deadline" proposed by Hank Steinbrenner apparently brought little more than laughter from most of the league.

Maybe the Twins will still get their way, and get somebody to overpay. But either way, I think they have to make the trade. And I hope the Yankees, Red Sox and whoever else, do not realize this.

Get it over with already (update)

*Santana's agent, Peter Greenberg, contacted the Strib Monday to refute the disappointing reports that Johan was forcing the Twins hand in a trade. According to Greenberg, Johan has not demanded that a trade be worked out with only Boston or New York (like it matters, they're the only two in the running, anyway), and that Santana has said nothing one way or the other about potentially waiving his no-trade clause during the season, which, as described below, would've been a rather dickish thing to do. Apparently Johan read the reports and got pissed off about it. So I guess he's not such a bad guy and all. I take back the elbow thing. Though I still hate the WBC.

I just want the Twins to get rid of Johan Santana at this point.
I'm not one to begrudge players getting as much money as they can, like some of the fogies out there who expect players to sign for 300% less than what they could get because it's more money than they make at their shitty job at Citibank.
Having said that, I'm kinda pissed at Johan. As the Twins try to make a deal, Cy-asshole delivered a blow to the Twins leverage by telling them Sunday he will not waive his no-trade clause during the season. Meaning, if the Twins don't trade him now, they won't be able to trade him later, and they'd lose him for nothing but the compensatory draft picks.
Asshole.
The Twins organization made Santana what he is today. Without the changeup that Triple-A pitching coach Bobby Cuellar taught him, and probably without the overly protective methods that Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson used to protect his arm, Santana is not in position to sign a $150 million contract right now.
Again, I have no problem with him telling the Twins, "Sorry, you can't afford me", but tying their hands just because you're anxious is fairly shitty.
Here's hoping that Santana blows out his elbow in the next World Baseball Classic.

*The deal is down to the Yanks and BoSox.
The Yankees are offering Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a second-tier prospect, and Hank Steinbrenner has set a deadline of Monday.
The Sox are offering CF uber-prospect Jacoby Ellsbury and a bunch of secondary prospects.
I strongly prefer the Yankees offer, and I hope the Twins accept it today.
Cabrera, who turned 23 in August, already has over 1,000 at-bats in the big leagues, and has hit a respectable .275/.340/.388 in that time. Much like Delmon Young, those numbers are much more impressive when you consider how young he is.
Ellsbury is probably better (he hit .353 in 116 at-bats with the Sox down the stretch, and has a .313 career average in the minors), but he's not way better, and when you consider that the Yanks are throwing in Hughes while the Sox refuse to include either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz (reportedly) I don't see how it's even close.
In fact, a large segment of Yankee fans are vehemently protesting the idea of the Bombers including Hughes in a deal (see keephughes.blogspot.com). While Santana costs $150 million, and could possibly be already on the decline, Hughes will be cheap for the foreseeable future, and has an excellent chance of being an All-Star caliber pitcher.
Hughes was 20 years old when the Yankees called him up last year, and in 13 starts he posted a decent 4.46 ERA, with an excellent WHIP of 1.28.
In 53 career minor league starts, the 6-5 righty has gone 25-8 with a 2.03 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP, with 311 K's and only 170 hits allowed in 275 innings. Those are truly amazing numbers.
In all honesty, if I were Bill Smith I'd trade Santana for Hughes and Cabrera alone, I wouldn't even need a 3rd piece to the deal.

The Yankees have made the playoffs every year since '95 or '96 or whatever, but as Roger Clemens and Andy Pettite have aged, their lack of a true No.1 has been glaring, so I can see why they'd make this deal. Santana is 29, and the Twins have done a good job of protecting his arm over the years. You'd think he's a safe bet for another five years at least.
But I still suspect his best days are behind him, and would love to land a talent like Hughes, as well as a promising CF like Cabrera, in exchange.

Smith's first deal a risky one

Bill Smith's first significant trade (I'm not going to count the Craig Monroe for a PTBNL deal as significant) is certainly big news, but I don't think anyone can say right now who the deal favors.
The Twins acquired OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie for RHSP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHRP Eduardo Morlan.

The good news is, the closest thing to a proven commodity in this deal is Young. But the reality is that there is so much yet to be determined about this trade, because all of the parties are so young.

If you put the deal in a vacuum, I think it favors the Rays, but considering the Twins' needs and what they already have, there's a good chance that they can look back on this as a good trade.

We'll try to take a closer look at what the Twins got, and what they gave up.
*Delmon Young
He's 22, and was runner-up for the 2007 AL ROY.
He played in all 162 games, and hit .288/.316/.408, with 13 homers, 38 doubles and 93 RBI. He stole 10 bases and struck out 127 times.
Those numbers (an OPS+ of 91) are certainly unspectacular, but they're a big upgrade for the Twins, and hey, he was 21. Considering most 21 year-olds are in Double-A, the numbers look pretty good. He put up monster numbers in the minors, and his throwing arm has drawn comparisons to Raul Mondesi and Jesse Barfield.

Of course, this is the guy who threw a bat at an umpire, drawing a 50-game suspension, and who got into a shouting match with his manager last year when he failed to run out a groundball.
For what it's worth, he told a Tampa reporter after hearing of the trade that he was "excited" and would "bring 100 percent effort" to the Twins.

Young played some CF for the Rays, but since the Twins are still pushing for a CF in any Johan Santana deal, they apparently want to put Young in LF. That's fine with me. That will allow Jason Kubel to be primarily a DH. It would be nice to have an actual DH, instead of treating it like a left over spot in the lineup.
There's a good chance the Twins will release Monroe rather than sign him, but hopefully they can work something out, because he'd make a nice righty/lefty platoon at DH and backup OF with Kubel.

Whether Young plays CF or not, he has essentially taken Torii Hunter's spot in the lineup, and Young, when age, salary and upside are factored in, is a giant upgrade over Hunter.
That's the best part of this trade.

*Brendan Harris
This is where it gets iffy.
In 2007, Harris was a better player than Bartlett. He hit .286/.343/.434, with 12 homers, 35 doubles and 59 RBI in 137 games for the Rays. He played 87 of those games at SS.
That in itself is good news. He was a damn good hitter. Much better than Bartlett.
But prior to '07, he was a middling prospect. He opened the season as a utility player, and got the SS job when Ben Zobrist got hurt.
Harris, 27, has a nice minor league track record, with a .294/.365/.458 line in over 2,500 at-bats, but he's already bounced between the Cubs, Expos, Reds and Nationals organizations.
Was '07 a fluke? Or is he really a good player? The Rays were actively pursuing Bartlett, so they must not have been comfortable that Harris could be their long-term answer at SS.
Certainly it's possible that the Twins don't either. Maybe they'll put him at 2B or 3B, and let Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla duke it out for the SS job.
Harris could be an excellent pickup for the Twins, but he could also end up being another Pat Meares.

*OF Jason Pridie
If the name is familiar, that's because Pridie was with the Twins in spring training in 2006 as a Rule V pickup. He didn't make the team, so the Twins had to give him back to the Rays.
He'd shown a nice mix of speed and power in his first few minor-league seasons, but not much of a knack for getting on base.
That changed somewhat this year, as he's coming off his best minor-league season.
He started at Double-A, where he hit .290/.331/.441 with 23 XB hits and 14 steals in 71 games, before getting called up to Triple-A, where he hit .318/.375/.539 in 63 games, with 10 homers and 12 steals.
The Strib said he isn't expected to be a candidate for a starting spot, another signal that they expect to find another CF.
But the idea that someone as good as Pridie, 24, isn't good enough to crack the Twins lineup means things are getting better.
Also, Jason Tyner fans, there ain't gonna be enough room on this team for Tyner, Monroe and Pridie. Something's gonna have to give.

As for who the Twins gave up...

*Matt Garza
Just turned 24, and is coming off a nice sophomore season.
After posting a 2.88 ERA in 53 minor-league starts, Garza was much improved in his second big-league stint last year.
A 3.69 ERA in 13 starts, with 67 Ks and 32 walks in 83 innings. He allowed 96 hits, but only 8 homers.
Make no mistake, Garza has ace-potential, meaning that when the Twins trade Santana, they're left with no No.1 starter, unless you consider Francisco Liriano an ace.
With Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Garza, the Rays have some pretty good young starters all of a sudden.

*Jason Bartlett
The 28-year old Bartlett had a good second half in '07, which is overshadowed by his underwhelming overall numbers (.265/.339/.361 with 20 doubles and 5 HR in 140 games).
He stole 23 bases in 26 attempts, and while committing a few too many errors, showed excellent range and athleticism in the field.
Harris was better in '07. But does Bartlett have the bigger upside?

*Eduardo Morlan
Morlan is a highly regarded prospect, with a high 90's fastball and a good slider. The 21-year old had 18 saves, a 3.15 ERA and 92 Ks in 65 innings at Single-A Fort Myers last year.
It's no wonder the Rays held out for Morlan over the deteriorating Juan Rincon, which is too bad for the Twins.
On the other hand, the Twins bullpen could be thinned out if Joe Nathan is traded. Pat Neshek was overworked last year, and Jesse Crain is coming off a serious injury. So it might be worth it for the Twins to try and get Rincon back on track, though I'm not optimistic it can happen.

Bottom line, it could be years before we know who gets the best of this trade.
I'm surprised the Twins had the balls to trade Garza, but even if they end up regretting that, it's a good sign to see the new GM being proactive. Terry Ryan's fear of activity is the reason the Twins were bad in 2005 and '07, and also the reason they've lost Hunter and likely Santana.
Both teams traded from a strength to improve weakness, and that's what trades are supposed to be about.

*The Red Sox are apparently strong players in the Johan sweepstakes, which is great news for the Twins. Pitting the Sox against the Yanks is the best way for the Twins to drive up the price.
The Twins are insisting on Jacoby Ellsbury and either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz.
Ellsbury was a stud down the stretch this year, but his minor league numbers aren't that impressive. Still, he's seen by most as a future star. Better than the Yanks' Melky Cabrera almost certain.
But with Garza gone, the Twins now need to get a top-flight pitching prospect for Johan, and I like the Yanks' Phil Hughes a lot more than either Buchholz or Lester.
Gut feeling: Twins send Johan to the Yankees for Cabrera, Hughes and an additional, second-tier prospect.

Report: Twins to send Garza, Bartlett to Rays

Here's the early reports on the deal, from the Strib's LaVelle E. Neal III.

Tampa gets: P Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, RP Juan Rincon

Twins get: OF Delmon Young, SS Brendan Harris, OF Jason Pridie

Garza, 24, is the logical candidate to be the Twins No. 1 starter assuming Johan Santana is traded.
He was pretty good last year after starting the year in AAA, going 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA in 15 starts.
In 83 IP, he allowed 96 hits while striking out 67 and walking 32. He allowed only 8 homeruns.

Bartlett, 28, rebounded from a slow start last year, finishing the season with a .265/.339/.361 line, after hitting .309/.367/.393 in 99 games in '06.
Bartlett stole 23 bases in 26 attempts, and seemed to be a good candidate to bat leadoff next year. However, in 140 games, he had only 20 doubles and five homers.

Juan Rincon was arguably the most dominant setup man in team history from 2003-2006, posting ERA's of 2.63, 2.45 and 2.91 while shouldering an enormous workload and always being asked to pitch in tough jams against the best hitters. You could argue he was the most vaulable pitcher on the roster at times.
But steroids may have been a factor, and last year he fell off a cliff, posting a 5.13 ERA.
You wouldn't think he'd be missed, but with Joe Nathan possibly on his way out, and Jesse Crain coming back from a major injury, he'll need to be replaced.

Young, 22, is one of the top hitting prospects in the game. He hit .288/.316/.408 last year, with 13 homers, 38 doubles, 10 steals and 93 RBI while playing in all 162 games. Those numbers are good, not great, but he was only 21. He has a huge upside, and could actually be a better offensive player than Torii Hunter. He played mostly RF for Tampa, but will almost certainly be the Twins CF (assuming this deal goes through).

Harris, 27, went from a middling prospect to a solid everyday SS last year. After hitting .294/.365/.458 in 2,544 career minor league ABs, he hit .286/.343/.434 in 137 games for the Rays last year. He has a lot more pop than Bartlett, but not as much speed, and is probably a slight downgrade defensively.

Pridie, 24, would be an upgrade on Lew Ford/Jason Tyner as a backup OF. He hit .318/.375/.539 in 63 games at Triple-A last year.

More Rumors

It's gonna stay interesting for the next couple weeks.
Reports out of Boston say the Twins have stepped up their efforts to acquire Coco Crisp to replace Torii Hunter. Haven't heard much about what the Sox might be looking for in return (how about Juan Rincon?).

A rumor circulating around Anaheim is that the Twins and Angels have discussed a Justin Morneau for Ervin Santana and Casey Kotchman deal.
Kotchman is similar to Mark Grace, and Santana is a promising 24-year old power pitcher, but seriously, just how much can fans be expected to tolerate?
The good news is, I don't think there's anything to it.

Another rumor making the rounds is that Boof Bonser, a Tampa Bay native, has been telling friends in Tampa that he is soon going to be traded to the D-Rays, with Delmon Young the focal point of the deal. I doubt the D-Rays would give up someone like Young for just Boof, so you'd have to assume there would be another piece to the deal.

And the Strib reports that the Twins are considering trading Joe Nathan as well as Johan Santana.
Wouldn't be a bad move, because the price of closers is going up, and closers are overrated. Incidentally, I think Boof is the best in-house candidate to take over as closer if Nathan is traded, so it'll be interesting to see if they both go.
Obviously Pat Neshek would be fine as a closer, but you need middle relievers, too.

Cy-Onara

Don't fight it. Don't hold out hope.
Get used to it. Johan Santana will be traded.
Almost certainly this off-season, perhaps in the next two weeks. And if not, before the July 31 trading deadline. But probably before Christmas.

And here's the thing: The Twins would be retards not to do it.
Here's why:
*Santana, at 29, is supposedly in his prime. I would argue that his prime was 2003-2006, but then again, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and countless other pitchers had their best years in their 30s, so who knows.
Teams can be reasonably sure that Santana will be an elite starter for another 5 years at least, maybe 7-10. He's an innings eater, a Gold Glover, he's never been on the DL, and the Twins have saved the wear on his arm by limiting him to 100 pitches almost his whole career. Meaning....

*His value will never be higher. The free-agent market is incredibly thin, with Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse the best ones out there. If the Twins are going to move him, now is the time. Critics of the T-Wolves have said they traded Kevin Garnett two years too late.
I'm not sure I agree with that, but here's a chance for the Twins to avoid making the same mistake. And.....

*It might be the perfect time to get rid of him.
While Santana's 2007 season was far from bad (in fact it was pretty awesome), he did see his ERA go up a half a run to 3.33, and he gave up an alarming amount of homers (33). Even when he was on, he seemed less dominant (except for that 17-strikeout game, admittedly).
I'm not saying he's on the decline or anything, but I do think it's fair to wonder if his best days are behind him. Is he really going to get better?
He may continue to be an elite starter, but I doubt he'll get better. His fastball has lost a little velocity, and scouts have noted a reluctance to use his slider.
And.....

*They can get something for him.
Now, if Santana had another 2 or 3 years on his deal, the Twins would be able to demand a King's ransom for him. We're talking robbery of the AJ for Boof-Liriano-Nathan variety.
But because he's only got one more year, has a no-trade clause, and expects an extension in the $120-$150 million range, teams are going to be leery to give up too much.
That's unfortunate, but it shouldn't mean the Twins will have to settle for a lowball offer.
In fact, my guess is the Twins will be able to pit the suitors against one another, causing somebody to panic and overpay.
If the Angels, a team with a surplus of outfielders and a swelling payroll, were willing to give Torii Hunter $90 million, I'm willing to bet somebody is going to pull out all the stops to get Johan.

*They have pitching.
Even without Santana, the Twins have the following pitchers to compete for the rotation.
Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins, with scores of other blue-chip prospects in the minors.
A front four of Liriano, Garza, Baker and Slowey could be pretty good.
The Twins need offense, and Santana can help them get some.


So what are we lookin' at?
Well, here are some teams and some names.

First, here are guys I would consider trading Johan for straight up.

Jose Reyes, Mets shortstop, age 24
One of the game's most electric players, I've yet to see any confirmed report that Reyes is off-limits.
He led the Majors with 78 steals, and hit .280/.354/.421. He had 36 doubles, 12 triples and 12 homers, and in '06, hit .300 with 30 doubles, 17 triples and 19 homers.
The Twins would likely move Jason Barlett to 2B if Reyes came aboard.
The Mets are the team most likely to overpay, as their GM, Omar Minaya, is desperate to make a big splash for a starter.

Robinson Cano, Yankees 2B - age 24
He narrowly lost out to Joe Mauer for the '06 batting title, hitting .342/.365/.525, and after a slow start, followed that up in '07 with a .306/.353/.488 line, with 19 homers, 97 RBI. 41 doubles and 7 triples.
Obviously, he's a stud, maybe the best 2B in the game.
Some media outlets have reported that Cano is off-limits, but if the Yanks could get Santana while holding on to Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, I think they'd do it.

Matt Kemp, Dodgers OF, age 23
At the age of 22, Kemp hit .342/.373/.521 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 98 games for the Dodgers.
A big, strong, fast country boy from Oklahoma, there are obvious comparisons to Mickey Mantle. They might not be far off.
Would the Dodgers do it? Well, their GM, Ned Coletti, is a renowned idiot, so I think he might.

If none of those guys becomes available, I think the most likely scenario is the Yankees offering Cabrera and either Hughes or Kennedy.
Hughes is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, while Cabrera has batted .275 in over 1,000 at-bats with decent speed and power, and he's only 23. The Yanks would certainly try to get the Twins to settle for Kennedy over Hughes, but there's a decent drop-off between those two.

The Mets have several top prospects to dangle, in pitcher Mike Pelfrey and outfielders Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.
Martinez is 19 and unproven, though very highly regarded. Gomez is a 22-year old speed merchant who debuted with the Mets this year, and has a pedestrian 772 career OPS in the minors.
Milledge hit .272 in 59 games with the Mets this year, and the 22-year old has an 864 career minor league OPS.
Pelfrey is a 6-foot-7, 23-year old, righthanded, first round draft pick out of Wichita St. who pitched well in limited minor league experience before getting called up. He posted a 5.57 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 13 starts for the Mets.
I think the Twins would have to expect at least three of these guys for Santana, as it's debatable whether any of them are major-league ready.

The Red Sox could become players, with Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Coco Crisp being candidates (Jacoby Ellsbury would almost have to be a 1-for-1, and he's not worth it), but I don't see them becoming serious players. The Sox already have a lot of pitching, and they don't have much offense to offer the Twins.

If Ned Coletti is even stupider than I think he is, the Twins could maybe get him to throw in Chad Billingsley (12-5, 3.31 ERA, 141 Ks in 147 IP for LA this year) with Kemp, in what would be a lopsided deal for the Twins.

The other most often mentioned candidate is the Angels, who could offer CF Reggie Willits (.293/.391, 27 steals), SS Brandon Wood (91 homers in 3 minor league seasons), 2B Howie Kendrick (.322, 5 HR), IF Erick Aybar (.311 career minor league average) or P Nick Adenhart (3.65 ERA in Double-A).
A package of Willits, either Kendrick or Wood, and Adenhart would be OK.

Of course, there could always be a dark horse to swoop in.
But wherever Santana ends up, there's reason to be optimistic the Twins will be a better team (in the long run at least) once the deal goes down.

Torii: Angel in the Outfield

Kirby Puckett played his last game as a Twin in 1995.
In 1996, Rich Becker hit .291/.372/.434 with 12 homers, 71 RBI and 19 SB while playing pretty good defense in CF. But Becker went back in the tank in '97, and the Twins turned to 39-year old Otis Nixon to man the spot in 1998. Nixon hit .297 and stole 37 bases, but the Twins decided they were ready to hand CF to Torii Hunter in 1999.
Hunter was a below-average hitter and fielder for two years as he tried to learn on the job, but by 2001 he had transformed himself into a power-speed guy who was without a doubt the best defensive CF the team had ever had, far better than even Puckett.

So for the next seven years we watched Torii produce something close to a .270 average with around 25 HR, 90 RBI and 20 SB. He didn't strike out a whole lot for a guy with those kind of numbers, but he also didn't put up much of an OBP, and he hit into a ton of double-plays.
For many Twins fans, Torii's offense was regarded more for what it didn't produce than what it did, as his penchant for trying to pull pitches two feet outside and grounding them to short became legendary.
But in 2007, the rest of the Twins offense was so bad, historically bad, that Hunter was now considered an elite hitter. He hit .290 with 28 HR and 107 RBI, which is very good.
But the dread that surrounds his departure is no doubt based more on the crap the Twins have left over than the actual value that is lost with Hunter.

None of which is to say Hunter won't be missed. He's on a very short list with Puckett, Scott Erickson, Chuck Knoblauch (before the Yankee debacle) and Brad Radke as my favorite all-time Twins. He was a likable guy, and he always, always played hard. At age 32, he probably is bound for a big year with the Angels, and playing on grass for a whole year will be hugely beneficial to him.
I also know I am not alone in being very happy to see Hunter not sign with the White Sox, or Royals, or Yankees, or Red Sox.

Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times had this to say about the Sox and Torii. I know it made me smile: "Consider this the latest significant setback in a bloody, 17-month Sox slide, which includes a 109-135 record since early July of 2006. This is more confirmation that a star like Hunter, who fled Minnesota with the aim of winning a championship, thinks he has a better chance of achieving those goals in Anaheim than on the South Side.
More and more, it's becoming obvious that baseball people view 2005 as an aberration for the Sox, a championship that won't happen again anytime soon. The Angels have sustained a consistently high level since their World Series triumph five years ago, primarily because they have an elite manager in Mike Scioscia and a title-driven owner in Arte Moreno. The Sox have a ditzy manager in Ozzie Guillen and an owner who likes to win but only at his price, though Reinsdorf has no problem charging top dollar at The Cell."

Sadly, that last line could be about the Twins, too.

The Twins did the right thing, here, if you can believe it. Anything more than the 3-year, $45 million the Twins offered would've been potential suicide for a team on a budget.
No one wants to be stuck paying Hunter $18 million when he's 37 years old and hitting .244 with 11 homers as a right fielder.
Which includes Angels fans, apparently.
This is from an Angel fan on the blog Obscure Sports Quarterly: "I am beyond trying to understand the Angels. Last year, they pay $50 million over 5 years to an overrated center-fielder coming off a career year (Gary Matthews). This year, they pay $90 million over five years to a slightly better overrated CF coming off of a career year. WTF? Thats $140 million of waste. And this team is still paying good money to Garrett Anderson! I’m not saying Hunter won’t be a good player for the Angels this year- he probably will. Actually, he probably makes the team a little bit better. What is frustrating to me is that if they did not have Anderson, Matthews, or Hunter, their outfield of Rivera, Willits, Guerrero would be almost just as good."

And this is from Larry Brown Sports, another blog: "Under no circumstance can I envision the Angels spending $90 million on Torii Hunter being a good deal. The reason why it caught everyone off-guard, Hunter included, is because the Angels grossly overpaid, and because Hunter probably never dreamed he would get that much. The Twins supposedly offered 3 years for $45, while the White Sox supposedly offered 5 for $75. That’s about right. I thought, and still believe, that Hunter is only worth around 5 for $65.

So what makes this deal so horrible? First of all, the Angels have set the free agent market extremely high, screwing many other teams, themselves included, for the future. Now Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, and Mike Cameron are probably going to cost a million or two more per year because of the Angels. When the Angels need to re-sign players, or go after other players, Hunter’s contract will be a future benchmark. If I were another GM, I’d be pissed the Angels inflated the market. When Ichiro was extended during the season this year, what’d he get? 5 years for $90 million. Sorry to say it, but Hunter is nowhere near as good as Ichiro, meaning the Angels had no business having Hunter’s contract match Ichiro’s.

Second of all, the Angels now have $130 million, and around $28 million annually allotted for two center fielders. That’s absurd. I can think of hundreds of ways to better spend $130 million. All those rumors about the Angels going after A-Rod? Even as the most expensive player in baseball at $27 million a year, pair him with any guy making the minimum and it’s still better value than Matthews plus Hunter.

Third, it’s like the Angels are just trying to appease the media. Media members say the Angels need a bat to protect Vlad in the order. Sure, sounds great. But one good bat isn’t enough to protect Vlad; they need another top 10 bat to properly protect Vlad. Hunter couldn’t even protect Morneau and Mauer. He batted behind Michael Cuddyer in Minnesota. Yet he’s supposed to protect Vlad? Give me a break. Even with $90 million on Hunter, the Angels still don’t have as good an offense as Boston, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, or probably Seattle and Toronto.

The Angels covered one mistake (Matthews) with an even bigger mistake. I seriously wonder whether or not Juan Rivera wouldn’t match Hunter’s offensive production on his own. Matthews is probably as good in center as Hunter, or at least close to it, so what are you really gaining? Now there’s a huge log jam in the outfield that will probably be sorted out by trades. But it doesn’t change that the Angels overpaid Hunter, screwing up the market. People ask me why I care, arguing that it’s not my money. Well, I am a forward thinker. If the Angels have $90 million tied up to Torii, how will they afford to re-sign Miguel Cabrera should they acquire him, and how will they re-sign Franky Rodriguez when he comes up, John Lackey when he comes up, and same with Escobar?"

Feel better? I do, but only a little.
Because the Twins, or more specifically Terry Ryan, could've avoided all of this.
They had a chance to sign Torii to an extension after 2006, but decided to just pick up his $12 option. According to the Strib, Hunter was looking for a 5-year, $65 extension at that time. So the Twins would have Torii for another four years for about $13 million a year instead of being forced to pay him for five at $18 million.
Oops.
Same deal with Johan Santana. Last year he was looking for a 5-year, $100 extension. Did Ryan really think he was going to get cheaper? The Twins just offered him a 5-year, $93 deal, but it's a year too late. While that offer would've probably been close enough to get something done then, now it's not even close. Apparently Santana is looking for more years and more money.
He will be traded.

And don't forget Justin Morneau. The Twins were close to an extension this past offseason, and they ended up not getting the deal done. After Morneau put up another 30-homer, 100-RBI season, he'll obviously be much more expensive than he would've been if the Twins had just given him what he asked for this spring.
You wonder: At what point do the Twins learn a lesson from failing to sign these guys before they play themselves into the contract stratosphere, and actually try to get pro-active?
They still have another chance with Morneau, as well as Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer. Hopefully Bill Smith has learned from Ryan's mistakes.

As for the near future, the Twins will try something similar to when they brought in Nixon in '98, like Kenny Lofton. They could also trade for a Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, or one of the extra OF's the Angles now have. Or maybe they'll shock the world and sign Rowand.
Hey, I can dream, right?

Torii will be missed greatly, and the Angels will be a better team in the short-term.
As for the Twins, things have only begun to get interesting.

Monroe - B.F.D.

When the Tigers traded Craig Monroe to the Cubs last year, many Twins fans rejoiced, because, of course, he absolutely killed Twins pitching.
Like Joe Orsulak, Lance Johnson, Edgar Martinez and Jim Thome, he was a guy that never made an out in the Dome. Or so it seemed.

But the reason the Tigers traded Monroe is that his career appeared to be in steep decline (he seemed to confirm that by stinking it up in Chicago).

Now the Twins have picked him up from the Cubs for a PTBNL.
Many Twins fans have already reacted with shock and horror, comparing Monroe to Tony Batista, another washed up veteran the Twins took an ill-advised flier on.

Monroe could very well be another Batista, but there's an important distinction to be made here. Monroe, who hit .222 with 12 homers this year after three relatively productive seasons in 2004-06, is up for arbitration Dec. 1.
The Twins will try to sign him to a cheap contract (he made $4.75 million last year) in the meantime. If they can't, and indications are that Monroe will be open to a cheap deal in light of his poor '07 performance, they'll cut him loose, and they won't have to send the PTBNL to the Cubs. So basically they've bought themselves a window to have exclusive negotiating rights to him.

It's doubtful the Twins look at Monroe as an everyday player, and it's doubtful they'll allow him to take them to arbitration if they can't work something out.

There is, I suppose, a slim chance Monroe could return to form, and if so this could be a steal for the Twins. Maybe his track record in the Dome will come into play. Even if he doesn't return to form, he can be a decent 4th OF (especially if the platoon-allergic Ron Gardenhire limits him to playing against lefties, who he hits well), and I have stressed several times that the Twins need to address their bench as badly as they need to address their lineup. This would be a nice step in that direction.

Ultimately, this isn't a major transaction. I think it's Bill Smith dipping his toe in the water.

Bottom line: If Monroe is replacing Lew Ford/Rondell White, I'm cool with it. And he's a close friend of Torii Hunter's, so maybe they're trying to make it harder for Torii to leave.
But if Monroe's coming in at $5 million, or to play everyday, Smith is off to a bad start.

Easy, Tiger

We have wondered if Bill Smith would be a more risk-taking, pro-active general manager than Terry Ryan, especially as an off-season of incredible importance kicks off.
He has done nothing yet, but it sounds like the answer is yes.

While I've written extensively that there are plenty of affordable free-agent hitters on the market this off-season, Smith is apparently targeting some higher caliber players via trade, as the Strib reported last week that the Twins are interested in Tampa Bay's BJ Upton and Delmon Young. The article indicated the Twins would be open to moving Matt Garza for a top-shelf hitter.

I'd love to have BJ Upton or Delmon Young, but with the likelihood of keeping Johan Santana long-term getting slimmer, I'm not so sure that trading Garza, the only healthy Twins starter with ace potential, is a good idea.

So apparently now we should worry about the Twins GM being too aggressive. Slow down, Billy Boy.

*SI.com reports that the Twins still insist they won't trade Santana, but that everyone else believes they'll eventually relent. The Mets are mentioned as a suitor, and supposedly the Twins would insist on Jose Reyes in return. I'd damn near be up for that deal straight up.

*You know it's bad when a Vikings game bring back memories of the ol' 41-doughnut we all remember so well. That's what happened Sunday. Brad Childress must've just expected AD to rush for another 296 yards, because he didn't seem to bother with an actual gameplan. Brooks Bollinger looked decent in two relief appearances, so then they start him and don't let him throw the ball downfield. Terrible.
And you know what else? The Vikings offense is bad, but the defense isn't much better. Viking fans are so used to bad (really bad) defenses, that they've convinced themselves this one is good.
It isn't. It may be good enough to win with a decent offense, but it's nowhere near the top of the league.

Coo Coo for Coco Crisp?

It's sounding more and more like GM Bill Smith is prepared to part ways with Torii Hunter, though I'll still leave about a 10% chance of him returning.
Smith's thinking might be that there are so many CF options available this year that the team would be better served by signing a modestly priced replacement and using the leftover money that would've gone to signing Hunter for trying to find a 3B/DH/OF.
The Strib reported this week that the Twins have contacted the Red Sox about Coco Crisp, who the Sox are prepared to part with to make room for Jacoby Ellsbury.

I'd be OK with the Twins acquiring Crisp for a second-tier prospect (perhaps a Jay Rainville or Anthony Swarzak).
You could argue that Crisp, who will be 28 on opening day, is better defensively than Hunter right now, and he could be the Twins best option for the leadoff spot (assuming they never give Joe Mauer a shot there).
There's a problem, though.
After two great years in Cleveland (.297/.344/.446 and .300/.345/.465), Crisp had two sub-par years (at the plate) in Boston as Johnny Damon's replacement (.264/.317/.385, and .268/.330/.382). He did steal 50 bases in 60 attempts over those two years while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.
At 27, it's reasonable to think he can still get back on track. Some have suggested the glare of the Boston media was a factor in his struggles. That stuff always seems like BS to me, but who knows.
The Twins could do a lot worse than Coco Crisp - like Darin Erstad, Jacque Jones, Jason Tyner, Denard Span, etc.

*The Twins maintain that they remain interested in re-signing Carlos Silva, but I think that's just to give their veterans the appearance that they tried. Silva is, at the moment, the top free-agent starter on the market. He could be this year's Gil Meche - a slightly-above average veteran who someone will overpay for. Meche, you may remember, got $55 million over 5 years from KC. Silva could get a similar offer. Seriously.
In a related note, the fact that Silva and Kyle Lohse are probably the top two free-agent starters available is causing teams around the league to turn up the heat on making offers to the Twins for Johan Santana.

Now. The Twins are in no hurry to trade baseball's best starter. But believe me, they will listen to offers, and they should. Santana's value is higher now than it will ever be. That's when you trade a superstar.
But I don't know if anyone out there is willing to give the Twins the two or perhaps even three major league-ready position players they would probably seek in a deal. A three-team deal might be the only way it happens.

OF Geoff Jenkins, OF/DH Jose Guillen and OF Cliff Floyd all had their team options declined. They are available. They can hit and should be cheap. Guillen's name has popped up in steroid rumors, however.

Who needs KG or Torii? We've got AD.

It's been easy to ignore the Vikes this year, but with Adrian Peterson running like this, I'm busy on Sunday the rest of the year.
Here's a Twinstown column that may appear in a local paper this week:

Sunday’s Colts-Patriots tilt had the TV talking heads falling all over themselves for hyperbole, with “Game of the Century” getting bandied about rather liberally.
But soon those same sputtering suits were spitting all over themselves for a different reason.
Vikings running back Adrian Peterson had upstaged the game of the century with the performance of a lifetime, rushing for an NFL record 296 yards, leading the Vikings to a shocking 35-17 win over heavily-favored San Diego.
This was a banner weekend in the NFL - besides Colt-Patriots, there was Brett Favre continuing to lead the Packers to an improbable run towards the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the Lions proving they’re for real by slaughtering Denver, Drew Brees throwing for nearly 500 yards in the continued resurgence of the previously left-for-dead Saints.
But Peterson was the day’s biggest story.
Going against a defense that featured notable run-stuffers Jamal Williams and Shawne Merriman, Peterson was simply unstoppable. He was untacklable, he always fell forward for extra yardage, he beat the angles to the edge, he cut back, he stayed in bounds, he put his head down and ran through the second level. It was a thing of beauty, coming from a team that has had a virtual monopoly on ugly for most of the year.
Suddenly the previously unwatchable Vikings are must-see TV, for no other reason than No. 28.
No doubt there were observers who spent much of Sunday’s game yelling at their TV screens that if Peterson had been getting 30 carries a game all year long, the Vikings might have a better record than their current 3-5 standing.
Perhaps, but this is where a word of caution should be offered amidst the AD love.
Running backs are the most precious commodity in the NFL. The average running back’s career lasts 3.2 years. Most likely the Vikings hope to get more than 3.2 years out of Peterson.
You don’t have to look far to find a cautionary tale. Kansas City’s Larry Johnson carried the ball 750 times for over 3,500 yards in 2005-2006, and finds himself struggling this year, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry at age 27. It could be just an off year, but many are wondering if he’s already lost a step.
Earl Campbell was a bulldozer as the Houston Oilers’ main weapon in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s, but overuse shortened his career considerably, and today he’s in a wheelchair.
For every Curtis Martin or Emmitt Smith, there are a dozen Preist Holmes‘ or Neal Anderson‘s, guys who break down after 1,000 or so punishing carries.
And Peterson, who’s currently averaging a ridiculous 6.6 yards per attempt, with 1,036 yards on 158 carries through eight games, faced questions about his durability before he was even drafted, due to his upright running style and once-broken collarbone.
This Vikings team has a promising future, especially if it can ever field a competent quarterback (Brooks Bollinger looks like the best one on the roster right now, for what it’s worth), but it’s not going to the playoffs this year.
The hope here is that coach Brad Childress doesn’t give in to outside pressures that insist Peterson touch the ball 30 times every week. Chester Taylor is a very good back, and keeping him in the rotation is the right move. It could significantly prolong the career of a guy who has a chance to be the best player in franchise history.
And there’s one other thing to keep in mind. If Peterson keeps going like this, he’s going to end up on the cover of next year’s Madden video game, and nobody wants that.

Douchebag Nation

The Sox won the Series, which is fine. They're a very, very good baseball team. Not a fluke. They deserved it. Came back again. I picked 'em to win the Series when I wrote my preseason column in the paper back in March.

The whole thing was kinda cool in '04, because of how much they stuck it to the Yankees, and they ended that stupid "curse", meaning we thankfully don't have to hear about it anymore.

Now I'm kind of sick of 'em. They're the new Yankees, complete with douchebag famous fans.

Here is a list of Red Sox fans that suck.

Matt Damon (though I hear he rocks the shit in Bourne Identity)
Mark "Marky Mark and the Funky bunch" Wahlberg (Yeeeah, Can you feel it baby? I can, too)
Ben Affleck and whatever coked out girlfriend he brings with him (notice how unhot Jennifer Garner is? Wow)
Stephen King (He was reading a book in the stands during the ALCS when the camera was on him - what a fan. Plus did you see how lame he was trying to throw out the first pitch in the movie "Fever Pitch"? Unacceptable.)
Denis Leary (I actually really like Denis Leary, and he's a loyal, knowledgeable fan. But now is not the time to make friends. Fuck you, Denis. Rescue Me sucks worse than the Bruins.)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Is a Brokeback joke even necessary?)
Dane Cook (Doesn't know what a balk is. Or a triple.)
Bill Simmons (No, not a fan. Surprised? Fuck you.)
The Farrelly Brothers (Perhaps their Red Sox fandom explains their fascination and goodwill towards the mentally challenged?)
Peter Gammons (You're a journalist - quit hugging players!)
Mike O'Malley (If you don't know who he is, you're not missing anything. Imagine Dan Akroyd in Caddyshack 2 only less funny).
The Dropkick Murphys (Their recording of Tessie is very cool, except they let Bronson Arroyo sing backing vocals. Arroyo is such a douche the Sox traded him to Cincinnati specifically because of his raging douchebagginess.)
Jimmy Fallon (I bet Kevin Millar would kick his ass if he had the chance)