Cy-Onara

Don't fight it. Don't hold out hope.
Get used to it. Johan Santana will be traded.
Almost certainly this off-season, perhaps in the next two weeks. And if not, before the July 31 trading deadline. But probably before Christmas.

And here's the thing: The Twins would be retards not to do it.
Here's why:
*Santana, at 29, is supposedly in his prime. I would argue that his prime was 2003-2006, but then again, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and countless other pitchers had their best years in their 30s, so who knows.
Teams can be reasonably sure that Santana will be an elite starter for another 5 years at least, maybe 7-10. He's an innings eater, a Gold Glover, he's never been on the DL, and the Twins have saved the wear on his arm by limiting him to 100 pitches almost his whole career. Meaning....

*His value will never be higher. The free-agent market is incredibly thin, with Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse the best ones out there. If the Twins are going to move him, now is the time. Critics of the T-Wolves have said they traded Kevin Garnett two years too late.
I'm not sure I agree with that, but here's a chance for the Twins to avoid making the same mistake. And.....

*It might be the perfect time to get rid of him.
While Santana's 2007 season was far from bad (in fact it was pretty awesome), he did see his ERA go up a half a run to 3.33, and he gave up an alarming amount of homers (33). Even when he was on, he seemed less dominant (except for that 17-strikeout game, admittedly).
I'm not saying he's on the decline or anything, but I do think it's fair to wonder if his best days are behind him. Is he really going to get better?
He may continue to be an elite starter, but I doubt he'll get better. His fastball has lost a little velocity, and scouts have noted a reluctance to use his slider.
And.....

*They can get something for him.
Now, if Santana had another 2 or 3 years on his deal, the Twins would be able to demand a King's ransom for him. We're talking robbery of the AJ for Boof-Liriano-Nathan variety.
But because he's only got one more year, has a no-trade clause, and expects an extension in the $120-$150 million range, teams are going to be leery to give up too much.
That's unfortunate, but it shouldn't mean the Twins will have to settle for a lowball offer.
In fact, my guess is the Twins will be able to pit the suitors against one another, causing somebody to panic and overpay.
If the Angels, a team with a surplus of outfielders and a swelling payroll, were willing to give Torii Hunter $90 million, I'm willing to bet somebody is going to pull out all the stops to get Johan.

*They have pitching.
Even without Santana, the Twins have the following pitchers to compete for the rotation.
Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins, with scores of other blue-chip prospects in the minors.
A front four of Liriano, Garza, Baker and Slowey could be pretty good.
The Twins need offense, and Santana can help them get some.


So what are we lookin' at?
Well, here are some teams and some names.

First, here are guys I would consider trading Johan for straight up.

Jose Reyes, Mets shortstop, age 24
One of the game's most electric players, I've yet to see any confirmed report that Reyes is off-limits.
He led the Majors with 78 steals, and hit .280/.354/.421. He had 36 doubles, 12 triples and 12 homers, and in '06, hit .300 with 30 doubles, 17 triples and 19 homers.
The Twins would likely move Jason Barlett to 2B if Reyes came aboard.
The Mets are the team most likely to overpay, as their GM, Omar Minaya, is desperate to make a big splash for a starter.

Robinson Cano, Yankees 2B - age 24
He narrowly lost out to Joe Mauer for the '06 batting title, hitting .342/.365/.525, and after a slow start, followed that up in '07 with a .306/.353/.488 line, with 19 homers, 97 RBI. 41 doubles and 7 triples.
Obviously, he's a stud, maybe the best 2B in the game.
Some media outlets have reported that Cano is off-limits, but if the Yanks could get Santana while holding on to Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, I think they'd do it.

Matt Kemp, Dodgers OF, age 23
At the age of 22, Kemp hit .342/.373/.521 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 98 games for the Dodgers.
A big, strong, fast country boy from Oklahoma, there are obvious comparisons to Mickey Mantle. They might not be far off.
Would the Dodgers do it? Well, their GM, Ned Coletti, is a renowned idiot, so I think he might.

If none of those guys becomes available, I think the most likely scenario is the Yankees offering Cabrera and either Hughes or Kennedy.
Hughes is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, while Cabrera has batted .275 in over 1,000 at-bats with decent speed and power, and he's only 23. The Yanks would certainly try to get the Twins to settle for Kennedy over Hughes, but there's a decent drop-off between those two.

The Mets have several top prospects to dangle, in pitcher Mike Pelfrey and outfielders Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.
Martinez is 19 and unproven, though very highly regarded. Gomez is a 22-year old speed merchant who debuted with the Mets this year, and has a pedestrian 772 career OPS in the minors.
Milledge hit .272 in 59 games with the Mets this year, and the 22-year old has an 864 career minor league OPS.
Pelfrey is a 6-foot-7, 23-year old, righthanded, first round draft pick out of Wichita St. who pitched well in limited minor league experience before getting called up. He posted a 5.57 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 13 starts for the Mets.
I think the Twins would have to expect at least three of these guys for Santana, as it's debatable whether any of them are major-league ready.

The Red Sox could become players, with Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Coco Crisp being candidates (Jacoby Ellsbury would almost have to be a 1-for-1, and he's not worth it), but I don't see them becoming serious players. The Sox already have a lot of pitching, and they don't have much offense to offer the Twins.

If Ned Coletti is even stupider than I think he is, the Twins could maybe get him to throw in Chad Billingsley (12-5, 3.31 ERA, 141 Ks in 147 IP for LA this year) with Kemp, in what would be a lopsided deal for the Twins.

The other most often mentioned candidate is the Angels, who could offer CF Reggie Willits (.293/.391, 27 steals), SS Brandon Wood (91 homers in 3 minor league seasons), 2B Howie Kendrick (.322, 5 HR), IF Erick Aybar (.311 career minor league average) or P Nick Adenhart (3.65 ERA in Double-A).
A package of Willits, either Kendrick or Wood, and Adenhart would be OK.

Of course, there could always be a dark horse to swoop in.
But wherever Santana ends up, there's reason to be optimistic the Twins will be a better team (in the long run at least) once the deal goes down.