I'm starting to think that if the Twins were to keep Johan Santana and Joe Nathan for the 2008 season, they might be able to contend for a playoff spot.
If they didn't trade Johan of course, that would mean they didn't acquire Jacoby Ellsbury or Melky Cabrera. So I'm guessing they'd sign Kenny Lofton to play CF.
So this would be the likely roster.
CF Kenny Lofton
2B Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
Bench
Mike Redmond
Craig Monroe
Nick Punto
Jason Pridie
(Alexi Casilla - if they only keep 11 pitchers)
Rotation
Johan Santana
Francisco Liriano
Scott Baker
Boof Bonser
Kevin Slowey
Bullpen
Matt Guerrier
Juan Rincon
Pat Neshek
Dennys Reyes
Jesse Crain
(Glen Perkins - if they keep 12 pitchers)
Joe Nathan
There are a lot of question marks, obviously, like Liriano's health, Boof's weight and conditioning, Rincon's ability to bounce back, Lamb and Harris playing every day in the IF; but if things go right like they did in 2006, this team would be good enough to contend (though if Detroit plays up to its talent we're probably talking wild card).
If they trade Santana they probably get either Phil Hughes or Jon Lester in return, and while both of those guys are ready to be quality big leaguers right now, they're not ready to be aces - yet. Baker would become the "veteran" of the staff.
And if Santana is traded than you have to trade Nathan next. He's in the last year of his contract, and when you consider the washed-up Eric Gagne just got a $10 million, 1-year deal, it's safe to say Joey will be way out of the Twins price range next off-season (and even if they could afford it I wouldn't do it. Smart teams don't pay $10-$15 million a year for a closer. They also don't pay $11 million a year for Carlos Silva, which the Mariners are about to do.)
I'm still about 90% sure the Twins are going to trade Johan. Although I've also said that I'd be willing to let him walk after this year for a World Series ring. Could they do it? It'd be a big longshot, and it'd be the risk of all risks to try.
What if they kept him, went 93-69 but still missed the playoffs? At that point you lost out on a chance to get Hughes or Ellsbury, lose Johan for nothing, and don't go to the postseason. That'd be tough to swallow.
There have been reports that Santana wants a 7-year contract, and that would be a risky thing for the Yankees or Red Sox, let alone the Twins. But a 5-year, $120 deal might not be as ridiculous as it sounds.
Think about it.
Right now it seems like suicide for the Twins to commit such a large chunk of their payroll to one player. But look at how quickly the market inflates each year. Last year, the whole world thought Royals GM Dayton Moore was insane for giving Gil Meche a 5-year, $55 million deal. Now it seems like a decent investment, and Silva - a lesser pitcher - is getting the same deal and no one bats an eye.
By 2010 the going rate for an ace could be $35 million a year. If they signed Santana now for $20-$25 million per, it'd probably be a bargain in a few years. While the Twins do work on a budget, they're not as "small market" as the front-office staff likes you to believe. The payroll will probably be over $100 million by 2009.
To be clear, I'm just sort of kicking some thoughts around. I still expect Santana to be traded. I just wonder what exactly the team will be looking to accomplish in 2008 if and when they do.
5 comments:
Way to look at almost every possibility. If you trade Santana you're looking a very definite glass celling with your team in '08.
If you keep Santana and Liriano stays healthy (or pitches significantly period), do you really think that rotation can weather the storm of a team like Detroit or New York/Boston should you happen to make it to the playoffs? Sure, games one and two would be promising, but the next three games with Baker/Bonser/Slowey? Going up against any three of those lineups next October with those starters will be a tall task.
It all comes down to what would you rather have. I know you pretty much asked and answered this in your post, but wouldn't you rather get some "guaranteed" talent? Or put your hopes and dreams on a fairly dim shot at a WS with Santana still in Twinstripes and take two picks the following year?
They should sign Santana. If Liriano returns to form, Twins would have a great rotation. They'd definately be a contender. Loften in CF, that's not a bad idea either. Though, I think they'd still be able to get Coco Crisp for almost nothing.
Keep in mind signing Kenny Lofton and having him on your team is sure way to choke in the playoffs.
Just look at how the Tribe could have won this year had Lofton just tried to take home instead of stay at 3rd in Game 7 of the ALCS. Could have been a different ballgame.
I think Glen Perkins will be in the opening day 5 man rotation. I don't see Slowey starting in the majors at the beginning of the year.
Circle - Good point about Coco still being a possibility in a seperate trade - I know the Twins like him. Hopefully they don't like him enough to do a Johan for Coco-Lester-Lowrie deal, however.
The Sox could use some bullpen help, maybe Juan Rincon or Jesse Crain for Coco?
Rex - Certainly a possibility. I'd actually say that aside from Santana, Baker is the only guy guaranteed a spot in the rotation. Slowey could start in Triple-A, while Boof could go the bullpen, and Liriano could start at Triple-A or the bullpen.
However, the Twins seem to have softened their stance that Perkins is viewed only as a starter. He's done a nice job out of bully so far, and they've said they want to have another lefty to go with Reyes.
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