BooSox, and Tigers

You probably read all over the place Tuesday that the Twins were closing on a deal with the Red Sox, and that the Yankees were out of the running.
I spent much of the day trying not to throw up at the idea of the Twins giving the best team in baseball -the Red Sox - a pitcher they don't even need, Johan Santana, for Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp and Justin Masterson.
However as the night wore on the deal never happened, and it sounds like it isn't as close as it may have been reported. I can only hope that the Twins are still just trying to squeeze more out of the Yankees, because the Sox deal isn't that good.

In Lester, the Twins get a 24-year old lefty who has posted a 4.68 ERA in 144 innings over two years with the Sox. In 483 minor league innings he's posted a 3.33 ERA with 446 Ks, 429 hits and 203 walks. Those numbers are good. They are not great. This, to me, doesn't seem like the kind of guy you build a trade for a 29-year old two-time Cy Young award winner around.

Crisp isn't as bad as some are making him out to be. He's hit just .264 and .268 in two years with Boston, with only 14 total homers after two outstanding years in Cleveland. But he does steal a lot of bases and is a great with the glove. He's only 28. He could still rebound with a change of scenery. But he's kinda spendy, with two years left on a 3-year, $15.75 million deal.

Lowrie is being advertised as a SS, but he ain't one. He's a 2B. He's hit pretty well in the minors - he had a .509 SLG in half a season at Triple-A last year, but is he likely to improve on Brendan Harris' .286/.343/.434 numbers? No, so why bother.

Masterson is a 6-6 righty whose ERA last year was 4.33 in 27 starts split between A and AA.

Seriously, people, this is not enough.

Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera straight up for Johan would be better if you ask me.
Hughes, it seems almost obviously, is considerably better than Lester, and Cabrera is already as good as Coco, and a lot younger and cheaper. What am I missing here? Why not take the Yankees deal? You're getting a young, cheap, ace and a CF who's above league average at the age of 23.

It's important to note that while Hank Steinbrenner has told the media the Yanks are done dealing with the Twins, Bill Smith and his staff say the Yankees have not told them they're out of it. My guess is the Yankees are still players in this thing.
And let's think about this critically for a minute.
The Sox don't need Santana. Really, they don't need him. They have Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matzusaka, Tim Wakefield and if they keep him, Lester, to make a pretty goddamn good 5-man ro'.
Why trade decent prospects to add $150 million in salary? Just to keep him from the Yankees?

And the Yankees, no matter what they say, have to make this deal if they're going to keep up with Boston and Detroit (more on them in a minute). The Bombers offense is amazing, but they haven't won a World Series since 2000 for a reason - they don't have a No. 1. They haven't had a No. 1.
Chien-Ming Wang is not an ace. Andy Petitte, Mike Mussina and Roger Clemens, at their ages, are not aces.
Just like Randy Johnson, Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Jon Leiber, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras, David Wells and Jeff Weaver weren't when the Yankes brought them in after it was too late for them to make a difference.
With Santana, it's not too late. He's still an ace.

The Yanks' offense is good enough to get to the playoffs, but without Santana they don't have a prayer in a playoff series against Anaheim or Cleveland, let alone Boston or Detroit.

Here's what the Yanks have to decide. Can they let Boston, Detroit and Anaheim take over the AL for a couple years, be patient, and wait for Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain to develop?
Or do they have to play for a World Series ring every year, in which case they trade the farm for Johan and worry about the repercussions later?
If they were smart, they'd swallow hard and take the former option. But if the Twins are lucky, Hank will get antsy, realize his team can't win in 2008 without Johan, and push for the deal.

* If the Sox land Johan it would make them seem invincible. At least it would've, until the Tigers pulled off the trade of the century.
Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for catcher Mike Rabelo, pitcher Andrew Miller, OF Cameron Maybin and three other minor leaguers.

In case you don't follow the National League all that close, know that Cabrera is basically A-Rod, and Willis, before a poor 2007, was Santana.
Cabrera is 24, and has posted an OPS near 1.000 for three straight years. He just puts up giant, giant numbers. In Detroit's lineup he's likely to hit .340 with 50 doubles and 30 homers.

That's not to say this isn't a risky deal for Detroit.
Willis had a 5.17 ERA last year, one year after winning 22 games, and the NL is the weaker offensive league.
And they gave up a ton. Rabelo's a nice player, and Miller and Maybin are the team's prized prospects. The other three guys in the deal are also considered high quality prospects. The Tigers essentially gutted their minor-league system.
But why not? At some point you have to go for it, and I mean really go for it, and that's what they're doing. I say good for them. Mitch Albom of the freep said prospects are like money. You work hard to save money, but you have to remember what you're saving it for in the first place. To spend it eventually.

What this means to the Twins is that it's officially safe to use 2008 as a rebuilding year. I've picked the Twins to win the AL Central every year from 2002-2007, and while I've only been wrong twice, I don't think I'll be picking them again in '08.

Here's the Tigers lineup.
CF Curtis Granderson 2B Placido Polanco 3B Miguel Cabrera RF Magglio Ordonez DH Gary Sheffield 1B Carlos Guillen C Ivan Rodriguez LF Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames SS Edgar Renteria

Sean Casey, who would be the Twins No. 3 hitter, is apparently now a bench player.