Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Keep him?


As of midnight Monday, a few sources were reporting that trade discussions with the Yankees involving Johan Santana were hitting an impasse.
The Twins insisted that the Yanks include Ian Kennedy along with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera, a deal the Yankees would have to be retarded to make.
The Twins then said, OK, if you don't want to include Kennedy, then throw in P Alan Horne and OF Austin Jackson. That didn't make the Bombers any happier, and now they're apparently considering backing out of the deal.

There are justifiable concerns that Bill Smith could overplay this thing and get left with his dick in his hand, but he seems unconcerned by that possibility, willing to fall back on keeping Santana for 2008, which, in case you forget, he is under contract to the Twins for $13 million.

Santana angrily refuted reports that he's trying to push the Twins into a trade, and appears to be open to returning to them. He also reportedly would still be happy to listen to contract extension offers from the Twins. But of course, those offers are going to have to be in the $120-$150 million range for five or six years.
While I'm certainly glad to hear that Johan is maintaining a good rapport with the Twins organization, committing that much money for that many years to Santana, who could (and I stress could) be in decline already, would be a mistake.
So that means they can keep him, try to build the 2008 team around him and then let him walk (likely to the Yankees) for nothing but compensatory draft picks after the year.
Or, they can keep trying to trade him right up to the trading deadline. Santana's agent, Peter Greenberg, declined to say if Johan would exercise his no-trade clause during the season, but the uncertainty is there.

Theoretically, if the Twins were able to add a SS, CF and 3B, I might be OK with getting one more big year out of Johan and then saying goodbye. For a World Series ring, I'd trade losing him for nothing.
But is that a realistic possibility? Maybe, but not likely.

That's why I think they need to make the trade with the Yankees. Cabrera will be an above-average CF, maybe even a really good one. There's no guarantee that Hughes will be all he can be, but the odds are good that he'll be pretty special. And they'll both be cheap for awhile.

So the more I think about it, it seems as though I've convinced myself that the Twins have to trade Santana. I think I might actually be disappointed if they don't move him.
That's sad, because I like him. I just don't think he's going to post anymore seasons with a 2.50 ERA, and I love the idea of having Hughes to build the rotation around, with Cabrera in CF.

The Red Sox have said they're open to talking trade as long as the Twins want to, so my guess is the Yankees will stay in the hunt. The "deadline" proposed by Hank Steinbrenner apparently brought little more than laughter from most of the league.

Maybe the Twins will still get their way, and get somebody to overpay. But either way, I think they have to make the trade. And I hope the Yankees, Red Sox and whoever else, do not realize this.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Looks like the Twins are chosing Lester over Ellsbury. Probably a smart move since they can get Crisp. If he turns into the player he was in 04 and 05, it would be a good move. Also, Lowrie looks like a nice add.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like a Sox deal is heating up, and they'll have to pick either Ellsbury or Lester. Won't get both.
I don't like the idea of that.

SDTwin said...

Tell me about it.
I hate any Red Sox deal that doesn't include Ellsbury AND Lester. They can't be that stupid.
But now the Angels have jumped in, and they have some good stuff to offer (I'd love to get SS Brandon Wood and P Jered Weaver).
Please don't do a Lester-Coco-Lowrie deal. Please.

ZSS said...

Tony Reagins just told reporters about an hour ago that he is yet to even talk to the Twins about a trade. Could be a load of BS too.

Just thought you'd like to know.

SDTwin said...

I saw that. Also saw that reports of a Twins-Sox deal could be premature. I can only hope.
Did you see the Tiger/Marlins trade, though? Ohmigod. They might actually be able to compete with the BoSox this year.

ZSS said...

No kidding. I about fell off my chair. Talk about being blindsided.