Smith's first deal a risky one

Bill Smith's first significant trade (I'm not going to count the Craig Monroe for a PTBNL deal as significant) is certainly big news, but I don't think anyone can say right now who the deal favors.
The Twins acquired OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie for RHSP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHRP Eduardo Morlan.

The good news is, the closest thing to a proven commodity in this deal is Young. But the reality is that there is so much yet to be determined about this trade, because all of the parties are so young.

If you put the deal in a vacuum, I think it favors the Rays, but considering the Twins' needs and what they already have, there's a good chance that they can look back on this as a good trade.

We'll try to take a closer look at what the Twins got, and what they gave up.
*Delmon Young
He's 22, and was runner-up for the 2007 AL ROY.
He played in all 162 games, and hit .288/.316/.408, with 13 homers, 38 doubles and 93 RBI. He stole 10 bases and struck out 127 times.
Those numbers (an OPS+ of 91) are certainly unspectacular, but they're a big upgrade for the Twins, and hey, he was 21. Considering most 21 year-olds are in Double-A, the numbers look pretty good. He put up monster numbers in the minors, and his throwing arm has drawn comparisons to Raul Mondesi and Jesse Barfield.

Of course, this is the guy who threw a bat at an umpire, drawing a 50-game suspension, and who got into a shouting match with his manager last year when he failed to run out a groundball.
For what it's worth, he told a Tampa reporter after hearing of the trade that he was "excited" and would "bring 100 percent effort" to the Twins.

Young played some CF for the Rays, but since the Twins are still pushing for a CF in any Johan Santana deal, they apparently want to put Young in LF. That's fine with me. That will allow Jason Kubel to be primarily a DH. It would be nice to have an actual DH, instead of treating it like a left over spot in the lineup.
There's a good chance the Twins will release Monroe rather than sign him, but hopefully they can work something out, because he'd make a nice righty/lefty platoon at DH and backup OF with Kubel.

Whether Young plays CF or not, he has essentially taken Torii Hunter's spot in the lineup, and Young, when age, salary and upside are factored in, is a giant upgrade over Hunter.
That's the best part of this trade.

*Brendan Harris
This is where it gets iffy.
In 2007, Harris was a better player than Bartlett. He hit .286/.343/.434, with 12 homers, 35 doubles and 59 RBI in 137 games for the Rays. He played 87 of those games at SS.
That in itself is good news. He was a damn good hitter. Much better than Bartlett.
But prior to '07, he was a middling prospect. He opened the season as a utility player, and got the SS job when Ben Zobrist got hurt.
Harris, 27, has a nice minor league track record, with a .294/.365/.458 line in over 2,500 at-bats, but he's already bounced between the Cubs, Expos, Reds and Nationals organizations.
Was '07 a fluke? Or is he really a good player? The Rays were actively pursuing Bartlett, so they must not have been comfortable that Harris could be their long-term answer at SS.
Certainly it's possible that the Twins don't either. Maybe they'll put him at 2B or 3B, and let Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla duke it out for the SS job.
Harris could be an excellent pickup for the Twins, but he could also end up being another Pat Meares.

*OF Jason Pridie
If the name is familiar, that's because Pridie was with the Twins in spring training in 2006 as a Rule V pickup. He didn't make the team, so the Twins had to give him back to the Rays.
He'd shown a nice mix of speed and power in his first few minor-league seasons, but not much of a knack for getting on base.
That changed somewhat this year, as he's coming off his best minor-league season.
He started at Double-A, where he hit .290/.331/.441 with 23 XB hits and 14 steals in 71 games, before getting called up to Triple-A, where he hit .318/.375/.539 in 63 games, with 10 homers and 12 steals.
The Strib said he isn't expected to be a candidate for a starting spot, another signal that they expect to find another CF.
But the idea that someone as good as Pridie, 24, isn't good enough to crack the Twins lineup means things are getting better.
Also, Jason Tyner fans, there ain't gonna be enough room on this team for Tyner, Monroe and Pridie. Something's gonna have to give.

As for who the Twins gave up...

*Matt Garza
Just turned 24, and is coming off a nice sophomore season.
After posting a 2.88 ERA in 53 minor-league starts, Garza was much improved in his second big-league stint last year.
A 3.69 ERA in 13 starts, with 67 Ks and 32 walks in 83 innings. He allowed 96 hits, but only 8 homers.
Make no mistake, Garza has ace-potential, meaning that when the Twins trade Santana, they're left with no No.1 starter, unless you consider Francisco Liriano an ace.
With Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Garza, the Rays have some pretty good young starters all of a sudden.

*Jason Bartlett
The 28-year old Bartlett had a good second half in '07, which is overshadowed by his underwhelming overall numbers (.265/.339/.361 with 20 doubles and 5 HR in 140 games).
He stole 23 bases in 26 attempts, and while committing a few too many errors, showed excellent range and athleticism in the field.
Harris was better in '07. But does Bartlett have the bigger upside?

*Eduardo Morlan
Morlan is a highly regarded prospect, with a high 90's fastball and a good slider. The 21-year old had 18 saves, a 3.15 ERA and 92 Ks in 65 innings at Single-A Fort Myers last year.
It's no wonder the Rays held out for Morlan over the deteriorating Juan Rincon, which is too bad for the Twins.
On the other hand, the Twins bullpen could be thinned out if Joe Nathan is traded. Pat Neshek was overworked last year, and Jesse Crain is coming off a serious injury. So it might be worth it for the Twins to try and get Rincon back on track, though I'm not optimistic it can happen.

Bottom line, it could be years before we know who gets the best of this trade.
I'm surprised the Twins had the balls to trade Garza, but even if they end up regretting that, it's a good sign to see the new GM being proactive. Terry Ryan's fear of activity is the reason the Twins were bad in 2005 and '07, and also the reason they've lost Hunter and likely Santana.
Both teams traded from a strength to improve weakness, and that's what trades are supposed to be about.

*The Red Sox are apparently strong players in the Johan sweepstakes, which is great news for the Twins. Pitting the Sox against the Yanks is the best way for the Twins to drive up the price.
The Twins are insisting on Jacoby Ellsbury and either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz.
Ellsbury was a stud down the stretch this year, but his minor league numbers aren't that impressive. Still, he's seen by most as a future star. Better than the Yanks' Melky Cabrera almost certain.
But with Garza gone, the Twins now need to get a top-flight pitching prospect for Johan, and I like the Yanks' Phil Hughes a lot more than either Buchholz or Lester.
Gut feeling: Twins send Johan to the Yankees for Cabrera, Hughes and an additional, second-tier prospect.