Monday, October 29, 2007

Douchebag Nation


The Sox won the Series, which is fine. They're a very, very good baseball team. Not a fluke. They deserved it. Came back again. I picked 'em to win the Series when I wrote my preseason column in the paper back in March.

The whole thing was kinda cool in '04, because of how much they stuck it to the Yankees, and they ended that stupid "curse", meaning we thankfully don't have to hear about it anymore.

Now I'm kind of sick of 'em. They're the new Yankees, complete with douchebag famous fans.

Here is a list of Red Sox fans that suck.

Matt Damon (though I hear he rocks the shit in Bourne Identity)
Mark "Marky Mark and the Funky bunch" Wahlberg (Yeeeah, Can you feel it baby? I can, too)
Ben Affleck and whatever coked out girlfriend he brings with him (notice how unhot Jennifer Garner is? Wow)
Stephen King (He was reading a book in the stands during the ALCS when the camera was on him - what a fan. Plus did you see how lame he was trying to throw out the first pitch in the movie "Fever Pitch"? Unacceptable.)
Denis Leary (I actually really like Denis Leary, and he's a loyal, knowledgeable fan. But now is not the time to make friends. Fuck you, Denis. Rescue Me sucks worse than the Bruins.)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Is a Brokeback joke even necessary?)
Dane Cook (Doesn't know what a balk is. Or a triple.)
Bill Simmons (No, not a fan. Surprised? Fuck you.)
The Farrelly Brothers (Perhaps their Red Sox fandom explains their fascination and goodwill towards the mentally challenged?)
Peter Gammons (You're a journalist - quit hugging players!)
Mike O'Malley (If you don't know who he is, you're not missing anything. Imagine Dan Akroyd in Caddyshack 2 only less funny).
The Dropkick Murphys (Their recording of Tessie is very cool, except they let Bronson Arroyo sing backing vocals. Arroyo is such a douche the Sox traded him to Cincinnati specifically because of his raging douchebagginess.)
Jimmy Fallon (I bet Kevin Millar would kick his ass if he had the chance)

Friday, October 26, 2007

Beantown & Minny - An uneven sports marriage


Because it happened gradually, rather than all at once, it may have escaped many of us.
But take notice.
Boston is king of the sports world right now - Minnesota is in the toilet. And those two realities are related.
It's nauseating.
The Red Sox are headed towards their second World Series title in four years, with David Ortiz leading the way. Ortiz, you may remember, came up in the Twins system, was released, and picked up by the Sox, where he's become a 21st century Babe Ruth.
The New England Patriots are looking capable of going 16-0, and while they were already in the midst of a dynasty, they seem better than ever this year for one reason: Randy Moss.
Yeah, the same Moss who put up a Hall-of-Fame career's worth of numbers in 7 years with the Vikings.
And I realized just how bad it is on Friday when I opened my mailbox and saw Kevin Garnett on the cover, clad in Celtics green, smiling alongside Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.
Ortiz.
Moss.
Garnett.
All in Boston. All with realistic dreams of a championship. It hurts.
The Boston Bruins have three Minnesota natives on their roster, so they'll probably be in the hunt for the Stanley Cup this year.
I've never been especially hard on the Twins for dumping Ortiz, because he never stayed healthy with the Twins, and when they tried to trade him not a single team in the majors, not even Boston, would offer even a journeyman reliever for him.
I also suspect his name might pop up in the Mitchell report the whole baseball world is anxiously waiting for. But it's hard not to imagine what it might be like having him bat between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

As for Moss, I never wavered in my belief that he was the best WR in the NFL, and I never thought he was nearly as much of an off-field locker room problem as the media made him out to be.
Oooh, he squirted water on a ref! So what.
Oh my God, he bumped a rent-a-cop with his car at zero MPH! Big deal.
He rubbed his butt on the goal post in Green Bay!?! Good. Fuck Green Bay and fuck Joe Buck.
Walked off the field with :2 seconds left against Washington? Shouldn't have done it, but it didn't matter at all in the end.
Who wouldn't take Moss back now? Anyone who says they wouldn't is either a racist or they don't give a damn about winning.
And you know, it would be a little easier if they hadn't lost him for nothing.
If you trade a superstar, you should get something for him. The Wolves got Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair and a 1st round pick for KG.
The Vikings got Napoleon Harris and Troy Williamson for Moss. Good work guys. Then a year later they got Ryan Cook for Daunte Culpepper. I guess that means sometime in 2010 they'll trade Adrian Peterson for a backup safety.

I hope Moss and KG get a ring. I won't actively root for either the Pats or the Celtics, but I will wish them well strictly because of those two guys. A big reason I'll be able to do that is because the Vikings and Wolves are so bad they don't even enter the discussion.
Times haven't been this bad across the board in Minnesota for quite awhile. It might be a little easier to handle that if we didn't also have to see what's happening in Beantown.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

There are plenty of bats available


It's no secret that the reason the Twins have failed to make the playoffs two out of the last three years was feeble offense. In hindsight it also now looks like the only reason they made the playoffs in '06 was several players going over their heads - fluke seasons.
The Twins probably should be on a three year run of missing the playoffs.

The Twins are just flat out terrible at coming up with offense. They have an excellent track record in drafting offense - Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter and Jason Kubel were all harvested in Terry Ryan/Bill Smith/Mike Radcliffe drafts - but they are piss poor when it comes to filling in their offensive holes with trades and free-agents.

The excuse we often hear from the Dave St. Peter's and Dick Bremer's of the world is that they can't afford offense, that their small market plight prevents them from adding the bats necessary to compete with the big bad Yankees (it's always the Yankees who are the bad guys in the small market/big market argument. Doesn't anyone else realize the Yankees haven't won a title since 2000?)

The whole premise is total bullshit. No, the Twins aren't going to be in the running for A-Rod, or Manny Ramirez, or Albert Pujols whenever they become free-agents. But the idea that quality offense is unaffordable is an outright lie.
Either that, or the Twins front-office is much more incompetent than we realize.

For a quick example, let's look at the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who had the worst record in the majors this year at 66-96.

They paid Carlos Pena $800,000 this year, or about half what the Twins paid Nick Punto.
Pena hit .282/.411/.627, with 46 homers, 121 RBI and 103 walks. Seriously.

The Rays went to Japan (try it Twins) and signed 3B Akinori Iwamura for $1.8 million, or about the same the Twins pay Nick Punto.
Iwamura hit .285/.359/.411.

The Rays started the season with Ben Zobrist as their SS, but Zobrist got hurt. So Tampa gave the SS job to journeyman Brendan Harris. Harris hit .286/.343/.434. They paid Harris $386,000 - barely above the league minimum.
Jonny Gomes, who hit 17 homers in 309 ABs, couldn't stay in the Tampa lineup. And this is the worst team in the majors.

There are other examples. Oakland acquired minor league journeyman Jack Cust from San Diego for another minor leaguer, and saw Cust hit 26 homers with 105 walks in 124 games.
Marlon Byrd hit .307/.355/.459 as a spare player on the Rangers' bench.

The point? Offense is out there. But you have to actually look for it. The Twins seem to want to wait for players to fall in their lap. What do they do, wait for the agents of shitty players like Tony Batista and Rondell White to call them up?
I swear to God if the Twins sign Darin Erstad (.248/.310/.355) to replace Torii Hunter, I'm going to become a Brewers fan.

So who should they look at? Glad you asked.
The following is a list of players who are free-agents (though a couple could still be brought back with a club option). A couple obvious names will likely be pretty expensive, but the overwhelming majority should be well within the Twins price range. It proves, in my mind, that there is no excuse for the Twins to trot out a lineup next year with three or four dead spots in it.

Outfielders Kenny Lofton
Yeah, he's going to be 41 by next year, but he hit .296/.367/.414 with 23 steals this season. If you're watching the playoffs, you can see that he can still play. Surely he's lost a step, but he'd be a decent stop-gap in CF, assuming Torii Hunter doesn't come back.

Moises Alou
Also soon to be 41, he hit .341/.392/524 in 87 games. He'd never repeat those numbers, but as a DH, he'd possibly be able to handle 120 games and hit in the .300 range with decent pop.

Barry Bonds
A long shot to be sure, but if Bonds showed any interest at all, his 132 walks and 26 homers make him well worth a big salary. As a DH playing half his games at the Dome, 40 homers wouldn't be out of the question at all.

Milton Bradley
Possibly not worth the headaches he can cause, and now he's coming off an ACL injury, but he can hit and is a good OF. Batted .306/.402/.545 in 209 ABs this year.

Mike Cameron
Another good candidate to replace Hunter. He's 34, but I still think I'd rather have Lofton. Regardless, Cameron's .242/.328/.431 line, to go with 21 homers, would be a pretty good replacement for Torii. OK, I'd rather have Cameron. He's better defensively.

Jose Guillen
Hit .290/.353/.460, with 23 homers and 99 RBI. Be a great DH.

Cliff Floyd
.284/.373/.422. Another great DH option.
Darin Erstad
No. He sucks. Bad.

Andruw Jones
.222/.311/.413. Not much of a contract year. But he's a Scott Boras client, so he's probably not going to be any cheaper.

Brady Clark
.262/.352/.346
Just a bench guy, but part of the Twins' problem is how they blow off their bench. It might help to have something better than Lew Ford and Luis Rodriguez on the bench. Apparently Bill Smith agrees, since he ditched both of those two.

Marlon Anderson
Another bench guy. Hit .319 with 3 homers in 69 at-bats.

Shannon Stewart
Hey, he played 146 games for Oakland, and hit .290/.345/.394. But I doubt Ron Gardenhire could resist the temptation to play him every day in LF.

Matt Stairs (pictured)
.289/.368/.549 with 21 homers as a part-time player. Always crushes in the Dome.

Sammy Sosa
I know, I hate him, too. But he hit .252/.311/.468, 21 homers and 92 RBI. Not a bad DH.

Corey Patterson
Another option to replace Torii Hunter. Hit .269/.304/386 - not very good, but he did steal 37 bases, and he's excellent with the glove.

Aaron Rowand
The best free-agent CF available. Yes, better than Hunter in my opinion.
Hopefully the rest of the teams looking for a CF will throw all their money at Hunter and Jones, leaving the Twins to sign Rowand. He hit .308/.374/.515 with 27 HR, and was Gold Glove caliber.

Infielders Aaron Boone
Could do better, could do way worse (see Punto, Nick). In 189 ABs, hit .286/.388/.423. Very good defensively. Unlike brother Brett, presumably not on steroids. Could play 3B, 2B or 1B.

Mark Loretta
Very Cirillo-like, but probably more durable, hit .287/.352/.372 for Houston. Can play 3B, 2B or 1B.

Tony Clark
A DH option who could give Morneau a day off or two, Clark has rejuvenated his career in Arizona. Hit .249/.310/.511 this year, with 17 HR in 221 ABs.

Scott Hatteberg (pictured, top)
Another 1B/DH guy, Hatteberg doesn't have a ton of power, but is an on-base machine. Hit .310/.384/.474 for Cincinnati.

Eric Hinske
Hit just .205 for Boston this year, but barely played. Could be worth a shot as a bench bat/3B/1B/DH.

Tadahito Iguchi
If the Twins aren't committed to either Punto or Alexi Casilla at 2B, Iguchi (.267/.347/400) would be a good option.

Corey Koskie
Might never play again. He missed all of '07 dealing with post-concussion syndrome. But if he can come back, he'd be cheap. We know what he can do.

Mike Lamb
Another example of how inexcusable it is that the Twins never have offense. This guy is a total nobody, but hit .289/.366/.453 in Houston, where he couldn't even crack the everyday lineup. Can play 3B/2B/1B.

Mike Sweeney
Has already expressed an interest in signing with the Twins, but I've gotta say I'm not interested. He's washed up. He can't stay healthy at all. And this year he wasn't even that good when he did play (.260/.315/.404).

Mike Lowell
The Twins could've had him fairly cheap two years ago, but they (surprise!) wouldn't take a risk as he was coming off a terrible '05 season. This year he batted .324 with 120 RBI for the Red Sox, so he's probably not affordable any more. Way to go, guys.

Mike Piazza
Could DH. Could he stay healthy? I think so, he's not that old. Hit .275/.313/.414 with 8 homers in 309 ABs.

Kazuo Matsui
He's the kind of spark-plug, top of the order 2B that Gardy likes to pretend Punto is. Hit .288/.342/.405 with 32 steals in 36 attempts.

Doug Mientkiewicz
I've advocated the Twins turning Dougie into a utility player before. Not a lot of people know it, but he's played 2B, 3B and OF admirably in the minors before. The Twins even used him in RF for a few games in '03 when they had some injuries.
He hit .277/.349/.440 for the Yankees this year. Again, not every guy you sign has to be a starter. The bench is important, too.

I think it's obvious that there are bats out there. And these are just free-agents, this doesn't even account for guys who could be had in a trade.
If the Twins sign Darin Erstad and Willie Bloomquist and call it good, then tell you it was because they couldn't afford anything better, you will know from having read this that they are either liars or total idiots.

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

The Hitters


Yeah, I'm finally getting around to some season wrap-up stuff. It was too depressing at first. Now I may be ready.
I'll start in earnest today by taking a brief look back at the hitters - what they did this year and what to expect next year.

Joe Mauer
Probably still the best all-around catcher in the game. Defensively he's as good as it gets, which is why the Twins are (correctly) resisting the urge to move him to 3B as long as possible.

I'm not ready to suggest he's brittle or injury-prone, but he needs to get to the plate 500 times a season.
My guess is that this 2007 will be the worst year he has for at least 10 years (and it was still pretty good), but if he never does develop into a power hitter the Twins should move him out of the 3-hole and into one of the top two spots in the order.

Mike Redmond
Probably the best backup catcher in the game. He's actually quite similar to Jason Tyner offensively, in that they both hit for a pretty good average, albeit with marginal to bad OBP and SLG%, and they both seem to come up with big hits in tough spots (seem being the key word).

Justin Morneau
Should we worry about his poor second half? The guy was on pace to hit almost 50 homers, and he ended up with 31. Jason Bartlett had a higher SLG in August and September than Morneau did.

The biggest reason for concern is that lefties seem to have figured him out. He'll need to make an adjustment to counter that, or he'll be a .270-30 guy instead of a .300-40 guy.

Defensively he's become quite good, probably as good as any 1B in the league.

Nick Punto
We've been through this. He sucks as an everyday player, he's decent as a utility guy. End of story.

Jason Bartlett
Made a few too many errors on routine plays, but overall he makes more plays than the average shortstop. Didn't hit much in April or September, but was pretty good in between. He'll be the leadoff guy next year, which I'm not convinced is the best place for him (depends on who the CF is probably. Kenny Lofton anyone?).

Needs to be at least a .280/.340 guy, if not .300/.360.

Alexi Casilla
Looked almost ready in April, when he was called up due to injuries. Then after spending most of the year playing every day in Triple-A, was somehow worse when he got called back up. He was so bad that he could lose the 2B job to Nick Punto next spring, and I might actually even support it.

Brian Buscher
Going into 2007 Buscher looked like a guy who would spend most of his career in the minors and would maybe never reach the bigs. But after a big year moving from Double-A to the majors, he's probably the best offensive prospect in the organization.

Defensively he looks pretty bad, but so did Corey Koskie when he first came up. 3B is a position where you can make yourself better without a lot of athleticism.

Buscher doesn't look ready to be an everyday 3B in the majors yet, but he does look like he could be a useful bat for the Twins. He should make the team and provide some offensive depth, with a chance to gradually increase his playing time.

Torii Hunter
The last two years have been two of the best of his career, and after a terrible 2006 season in the field (that nonetheless garnered him another Gold Glove), he was pretty close to his old self in CF this year.

I still think there's an outside chance the Twins resign him, but at this point I'm talking like 20%.
Whether or not the Twins could survive the loss of a guy who hit .287 with 28 homers, 44 doubles, 18 steals and 107 RBIs depends largely on whether or not the rest of the lineup improves. In other words, if Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer can each hit in the .280 with 25 homers range, and if they can get a decent 3B, they could probably still be OK with Kenny Lofton or whoever in CF.

Jason Kubel
Much like Michael Cuddyer, he keeps pushing that breakthrough season back a year. I thought for sure it would be in '07, and it kind of was, but far too late.

That's partly Ron Gardenhire's fault for not playing him every day.
Regardless, Kubel was the team's best hitter after the All-Star break, and should be good for at least a .275-20 homer season next year.

Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was a little disappointing this year, but he was still pretty good. The problem was that everyone else was so bad, or at least, not as good as in '06 - like Cuddyer.

As mentioned earlier, if Hunter leaves, the Twins need more production out of their corner OF's.
That means 25 homers, not 16.
Also, dude's got a cannon, plays the baggy very well, and takes excellent angles into the gaps.

Jason Tyner
Tyner can hit in the .280-.300 range if his playing time is limited. The more at-bats he gets, the more that average will tumble. That's why there's no way the Twins can even consider him as the starting CF if Hunter leaves. He has zero power and does not get on base very much for a slap hitter.

He is, however, a pretty decent backup OF, because he's sound defensively, runs okay, and can put the ball in play.

Garrett Jones
He's never been a particularly good hitter in the minors, let alone the majors.
But he does have power, something the Twins always lack. There's no way Jones can be a useful starter, however, his power could make him an intriguing pinch-hitter. He showed signs of being able to hang with major league pitching in the season's final weeks. Could give Morneau a day off or two at 1B.

Chris Heintz
Now that Jose Morales has made his major league debut, I don't see how Heintz ever plays another game at the ML level. He's not good enough to be even a 3rd string catcher.

Jose Morales

This was his first year as a catcher, and he hit .311, then got called up to the Twins, went 3 for 3 in his debut, and broke his ankle. He's probably ready to be the No. 3 catcher.

Matt LeCroy
It was good to see you again, Matty. Enjoy Japan. Or perhaps retirement.



Sunday, October 07, 2007

Bill Smith: Smartest GM in baseball hsitory


If first impressions are any indication, maybe Bill Smith will be a good GM for the Twins. He's already made me a fan based on one move - the release of Lew Ford.
Yes, Smith risked irking grandmothers and 4th graders all over the upper midwest by unceremoniously dumping the worthless Ford this week. He also canned Josh Rabe, Tommy Watkins and Luis Rodriguez. Watkins may be back, the other three won't.

In regards to Ford, Smith said: "Lew's a good person with a good family, and he's made a lot of good contributions to our ballclub. Unfortunately, he's had a tough couple years."

Notice the lack of bullshit in that comment. Nothing about hoping he could turn it around, or what a 'gamer' he is, or how did the little things, just an honest assessment of his worth: Formerly valuable, now shitty and worthless.

It's nice to see that Smith may actually use performance to evaluate players.

What a novel idea.

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

There is a God


As of today, the Twins season has ended early, the Vikings are perhaps the worst team in the NFL, the T-Wolves no longer have Kevin Garnett and the Gophers are the worst team in the Big 10.
Torii Hunter and Johan Santana may have played their last games as a Twin, and I have to go finish mowing my lawn.
But none of that can put a damper on my day.

Because Isiah Thomas lost his sexual harassment case.
I don't know if anything could make me happier right now.

I could spend all day reciting reasons why I despise Isiah Thomas, but I still have to go to work this afternoon, and that lawn won't mow itself.

First of all, did you know Isiah Thomas' middle name is Lord?
What the fuck - Lord? No wonder he's such an ego maniacal bastard, his mom convinced him he's a deity.
While his common nickname as a player was Zeke (is that another biblical reference? I don't know but he still sucks), his bio also lists "the baby-faced assassin" as a nickname.

Gay.

The main reason I hate the baby-faced assassin is his career-long penchant for jealousy of players and people better and more successful than him.
In 1985, the baby-faced assassin orchestrated a "freezeout" of rookie Michael Jordan in the All-Star game, because he was jealous of Jordan. MJ took only 9 shots in the game because no one would pass him the ball.
Years later, after Jordan's Bulls kicked the shit out of the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Pistons walked off the court of Game 4 (it was a sweep) with 7.9 seconds left, refusing to shake hands with the Bulls.

Jordan got revenge in truly righteous fashion in 1992, when he blocked the baby-faced assassin from being selected for the "Dream Team" the first and most famous NBA Olympic team. John Stockton took his place. The baby-faced assassin complained, but because he's a pussy and a coward, vented most of his frustration toward Stockton instead of Jordan, even though Stockton had nothing to do with it.
So the next time the Jazz played the Pistons, Karl Malone elbowed the baby-faced assassin in the head, requiring 40 stitches.

Thank you, Karl Malone. You rule.

Likely the baby-faced assassin's anger towards Stockton was racially motivated. This is the same guy who once said Larry Bird, who for his career averaged 24 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists per game while shooting 50% from the floor and 89% from the line, was overrated, and would be "just another player" if he was white.
He also reportedly said recently, in regards to Knicks' season ticket holders, "Bitch I don't give a fuck about these white people!"
While it pleases me to picture the baby-faced assassin saying such a thing, it also reminds me how much I hate him.

After he retired, the baby-faced assassin refused to go away. Jealous of the reputation players like Jordan and Magic Johnson had as businessmen, he apparently decided he could use his "winning (read: criminal) smile" and criminal justice degree (yes, he went back to school and got it) from Indiana to become a Fortune 500 tycoon or something.
He became part owner of the Toronto Raptors, but was forced out due to alleged improprieties.

Then came the CBA debacle. To make a very long story very short, the baby-faced assassin bought the whole league, and ran it straight into the ground. It would be hard for a high school sophomore to fuck up a business faster than the baby-faced assassin ruined the CBA.
Rather than try to fix it, he jumped ship to become head coach of the Indiana Pacers.

In between, he actually wrote a book about how to succeed in business.

Seriously.

The guy who took a 65-year old league and killed it in three months, wrote a book about how to be a successful businessman. I can think of a few metaphors that would apply here.

It'd be like:

Bill Janklow writing a book about safe driving.

Nick Punto writing a book about hitting for power.

Brad Childress writing a book about how to create a "kick-ass offense."

My brother writing a book about what constitutes good music.

I could go on.

But the baby-faced assassin's move to Indiana ended up working out for the better, because Bird was soon hired as the team's GM, and guess what was the first thing he did upon taking over?
You guessed it - he shit-canned the B.F.A (getting kind of tired of spelling it out, sorry).

It looked like the B.F.A. might finally be out of the picture by then, but no, the Knicks hired him as GM. He had the highest payroll in the NBA, and one of its greatest coaches in Larry Brown, and yet the Knicks were the worst team in the NBA. He gave a 5-year, $30 million contract to Jerome James, who averaged 2.9 points and 2.2 rebounds a game.

The B.F.A. fired Brown and made himself coach. One of his first acts as coach was to order his players to commit hard fouls in a game against Denver, instigating an unsightly brawl.
But the Knicks finished the year on a 20-17 run, landing the B.F.A. an extension.

So here I was, waiting for something bad to happen to the B.F.A. when - BAM - sexual harassment suit!

You've probably heard many of the sordid details, so let's just skip to the best part - the jury today sided with the accuser, Anucha Browne Sanders.

$11.6 million, baby. Maybe the CBA should join in for some sloppy seconds and see if they can get any $$ from the big bad B.F.A.

Attention New York Knicks: Fire this historic asshole.

Attention NBA: Never give this stupendous prick another job - ever.

Attention Planet Earth: Stay away from this fucker, he's the devil.

Monday, October 01, 2007

The National League is more fun this year

Other than the 8 non-Twins games I attended on my honeymoon this summer, last night's one-game playoff for the NL Wildcard was the first major league game all year I watched from beginning to end that didn't involve the Twins.
And it was worth it. 3-0 Rocks, 5-3 Dads, 6-5, 6-6, then staying that way til the 13th. Dads look ready to win after a two-run homer by Scott Hairston. Trevor Hoffman, he of the 524 career saves! comes on to close the door....and gives up a double, a double, a triple, and a lazer sac fly to blow the save. Rocks win, take the wild card.
I wanted to watch the game because one-game playoffs are awesome and rare. I had a feeling it would be a memorable game, and it was.
And Ramon Ortiz got the win. He's going to the playoffs. We're not.

What a finish in the NL. A monumental collapse for the Mets, the Rockies win 13 of 14 down the stretch to get in, the Phillies come back on the last day, the Cubs are in - this league is definitely more interesting than the AL.

I don't know how much of the playoffs I'll watch. I suppose if I'm not doing anything I'll watch, and I'll definitely be pulling for the Phillies and Rockies. But it's not like I'm going to set aside time to watch. It's tough when you thought your team was gonna be there.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Two Words: Barry Bonds


The San Francisco Giants are ready to cut ties with Barry Lamar Bonds. They used his chase for the HR record to sell tickets, and now they're cutting him loose. It's probably the right move - if your best player is 43 years old, you are a team in turmoil.

But while the easy thing for Bonds to do would be to retire, he is adamant that he won't. You'd think a guy who's spent most of the last few years being dogged by the feds and the media would be looking to get the hell out, HR record in hand, but Bonds says he wants to keep playing.

Obviously, he needs to go to the AL. It's almost unfair watching him try to play LF these days. He just can't do it. He's a DH now.

So where to? Yanks? Red Sox? White Sox? Tigers?

Maybe.

But what better way for new GM Bill Smith to make a splash than to bring in Bonds to hit 3-hole? (I'm assuming Gardy would resist the temptation to play him everyday in LF, a la Rondell White)

Thing is, Bonds needs to be somewhere where the media glare isn't quite as intense. New York, Boston or Chicago would be an absolute nightmare. Maybe Texas or Oakland are a possibility. But why not the Twins?

No, he's not going to hit 70 homers anymore, but the guy, at age 42, has a .483 OBP and a .570 SLG. His OPS+ is 172. That's the best in the NL.

Now, maybe you're one of those Dick Bremer douche bags who thinks the Twins are better off signing "Piranhas", who hustle and star in gay commercials and say nice things to Marney and set an example of how to run the bases for your retarded child, and if that's the case, stop watching baseball.

But, if you think it might be entertaining to watch arguably the greatest player ever bat between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and think it might be more fun to win a World Series than to "battle your tail off" and go 77-85, you will realize it would be awesome to have Barry Bonds on the Twins.

PS - Yeah, I know. He did steroids. They all did. I don't care.
Yeah, I think the record is tainted. Don't care about that either.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Torii's last stand?

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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

The Ballad of Nick Punto


As the Philadelphia Phillies 21st round draft pick in 1998(scouted and signed by former big league manager Jim Fregosi), it was somewhat of a longshot for Nick Punto, who played collegiately at Saddleback Community College, to reach the major leagues, but he did so rather quickly.

A strong first impression
In his first full minor league season, at high-A Clearwater, he hit .305 and drew 67 walks in 106 games, good for a .404 OBP. This 106 game stint alone might be the reason Punto is in the big leagues today,
because he never came close to repeating those numbers again. But, having made an excellent impression, the Phillies moved him to Double-A Reading in 2000, where he hit .254. He drew 68 walks and stole 33 bases, as well as hitting five homers, still his career high to this day.

The Phillies decided that was good enough to move him to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2001. In 129 games he hit a paltry .229, but the parent club must’ve liked his 68 walks and 33 steals, because they called him up to the big leagues in September. He singled
off Bob Scanlon for his first big league hit on Sept. 9, and ended up going 2-for-5 in four games. The Phillies decided he was ready, and he began ‘02 in the majors. But there was really no room for him, and he was demoted back to Scranton, where he had his best year since A-ball, hitting .271 with 76 walks (for a .378 OBP) and stealing 42 bases.

He got called up again in September, and ended the season 1-for-6. He again opened the season with the Phillies in ‘03, but again was sent down before the end of April. He ended up going back and forth a few times, and in 64 games in the bigs (92 at-bats) batted .227 with a .273 OBP. While he had played SS al
most exclusively in the minors, he saw time at 2B, 3B and SS for Philadelphia. No doubt the Phillies had been intrigued by Punto’s ability to draw a walk while in the minors, but this 64-game stint was the first sign that, unless Punto showed some ability to handle the bat, major league pitchers weren’t going to walk him often.

Coming to Minnesota
Meanwhile in Minnesota, the Twins were becoming frustrated with Cristian Guzman, a highly talented but seemingly lazy shortstop whose development suddenly seemed stunted after a breakout season in 2001. They were also looking to deal some of their veterans to make room for younger, cheaper players. That off-season they sent catcher AJ Pierzynski to the Giants for pitchers Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan, as well as sending Eric Milton to Philadelphia for Carlos Silva and Nick Punto. Silva had been a reliable set-up man in Philly, but the Twins immediately inserted him into their rotation. Punto was advertised primarily as a utility player, and would replace Denny Hocking, who the Twins released after the ‘0
3 season.

However, m
anager Ron Gardenhire showed early signs of having an odd appreciation for Punto by suggesting that he could compete for the starting shortstop job. This seemed to be little more than a motivational tactic aimed at Guzman, since Punto had done nothing in his entire career to suggest he was capable of being a full-time player in the majors. As disappointing as Guzman had been, he was still a far better option.

But Punto never really got his chance to light a fire under Guzman, as his penchant for diving headfirst into bases and after ground balls put him on the DL frequently. He actually performed reasonably well when healthy, posting a .253 average and .340 OBP, with a couple of homers, six steals and only one error in 38 games (91 at-bats). Guzman actually did have a slightly better season, hitting .274 with 8 homers, 31 doubles and 84 runs scored, but when the Washington Nationals offered him a 4-year, $26 million contract after the year, the Twins surmised he wasn’t worth that much.

A failure at 2B
While they were right, as Guzman failed miserably in Washington, the Twins horrible infield contributed heavily to their failure to reach the playoffs in 2005. Rookie Jason Bartlett and veteran utility man Juan Castro split time at SS, and neither produced much at the plate.
Punto took over at 2B when the Twins grew tired of Luis Rivas, another once-promising talent who regressed after a strong rookie season.

In his first shot at playing regularly in the big leagues, Punto hit .239 with a .301 OBP. He hit four homers and struck out 86 times in 394 at-bats.

This failure prompted the Twins to acquire All-Star and Gold-Glover Luis Castillo in the off-season. The Twins also added veteran slugger Tony Batista to play 3rd in ‘06. Bartlett was expected to get another shot at the SS job, but despite hitting nearly .400 in spring training, he was sent to Triple-A, while Castro, who entered the season with a .271 career OBP, was named the starter. This left Punto and Luis Rodriguez as dual utility players.

The rejuvenation
According to a spring training story in the Star Tribune, Punto was approached by Hall of Famer Rod Carew on the field one day before practice. Carew held a printed copy of Punto’s stats, and had circled in red ink his .301 OBP, 45 runs scored, 36 walks, and 13 of 21 stolen base rate. Carew wanted Punto to know that these numbers were unacceptable, and were the ones he should focus on during the season. There was much rolling of the eyes in Twins nation when this story appeared.

Predictably, Castro and Batista failed, with Castro traded and Batista released in mid-June. Bartlett stepped in at SS and played well, while Punto took over at 3B simply beca
use there wasn’t anyone else.

But apparently Punto had taken Carew’s instruction to heart, because, once given regular playing time, his numbers rose consistently from June through August. He was hitting well over .300 with an OBP in the .370 to .390 range for most of the year, while playing strong defense at 3B. The Twins got hot, in part thanks to the spark provided by Punto and Bartlett, and reached the playoffs.

While Punto had had the year of his life, he also faded sharply in September, and finished the season with a .290 average and .352 OBP. Fine numbers to be sure, but many observers viewed the late slump as evidence that his mid-summer surge was largely a fluke. Unfortunately, for no good reason, Gardenhire declared late in the season that Punto would be the starter again in ‘07 at 3B, effectively ordering GM Terry Ryan not to acquire a new one in the off-season.
As evidence that Ryan didn’t trust Punto, he signed free-agent Jeff Cirillo anyway. Cirillo had always been a strong hitter, particularly against lefties, but at 37, made it clear he could not play every day.

Crashing back to Earth
2007 would prove to be the most frustrating and disappointing season of the Gardenhire era, and Punto, perhaps somewhat unfairly, was at the center of the firestorm all year. He hit .220 in April, and after a decent May, in which he posted a .364 OBP, saw his season devolve into one of the worst in baseball history from an offensive standpoint. He batted .150 in June, .218 in July, and an embarrassing .127 in August, all while playing virtually every day.


Cirillo never got going, landed in Gardy’s doghouse for refusing to play regularly, and was traded to Arizona. Meanwhile Gardenhire continued to defend Punto, primarily for his hustle and defense. And while Punto did make many highlight-reel plays, he committed as many errors as your average 3B, and most statistics that measure a fielders range, admittedly an inexact science, found him to be league average at best. Gardenhire dropped him to the No. 9 spot in the order (he had opened the year hitting second), and asked him to bunt more often, but Punto failed several times to move runners over, popping up bunts or striking out after failed attempts several times.

While these kind of fundamental lapses often land younger or more talented players in Gardenhire’s doghouse (like rookie 3B Brian Buscher, who hit well after a call-up but rarely played because of his shaky glove), the manager strangely continued to defend Punto, who by now had become a pariah among fans, who viewed him as a symbol for everything that was wrong with the team.

By late August, Punto’s average was under .200. As if that weren’t bad enough, his slugging percentage was in the .250 range, on par with many NL pitchers. Punto warmed up some in September, and as of Sept. 20 had his average up to .209, and his OBP to .292. His 54 walks rank fourth on the team behind Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer.


Another chance?
On Sept. 17, Gardenhire told the Star Tribune that Punto was his choice to open the 2008 season as the starting 2B. The Twins had traded Luis Castillo to make room for rookie Alexi Casilla at the position, but Casilla struggled both physically and mentally, at the plate and in the field.

Gardenhire’s announcement sent many Twins fans into fits of rage, as the idea that a starting job would be handed to a player coming off arguably the worst season in history seemed counterproductive, to put it mildly. Almost on cue, Punto made two glaring mental mistakes the next day, getting hung up between 2nd and 3rd for an out early in the game, then later getting thrown out while trying to stretch a double into a triple leading off an inning.
The irony was thick.

In retrospect, it’s hard to blame Punto for anything that has gone wrong this year. Quite simply, it isn’t his fault that Gardenhire has tried to make him into something he isn’t - a major league regular. Like trying to force a square peg through a round hole, Gardenhire stubbornly kept sending him out there, even though it was apparent to everyone it couldn’t work.

Punto is what he is - a light-hitting infielder with a reliable glove and above average speed. That can be useful to a team, but only if utilized optimally. However, anyone who has watched the Twins with any regularity knows that using players optimally has never been Gardenhire’s strength (see Jacque Jones, Matthew LeCroy, Lew Ford, Shannon Stewart, Jason Ku
bel, Michael Cuddyer, etc, etc).

But the announcement that Punto opens 2008 with a leg-up on the 2B job should be taken witha grain of salt. What choice does Gardenhire have but to say this? Casilla has been awful, and promising him a job is no way to accelerate his development. It’s clear that this is a motivational tactic to some degree, and it’s one that had to be made.

Quite frankly, as bad as Punto has been, Casilla has probably been worse, all things considered. Right now Punto is the better player, which says alot about the state of the Twins infield. Additonally, Punto is unlikely to be as bad in ‘08 as he was in ‘07, even if he does end up playing every day (which he likely won’t).

However, it also seems unlikely that Punto will ever go back to being the .300 hitter we saw for much of ‘06 (even then he posted an OPS+ of 90, meaning he was 10% below the league average that year in offensive production).

There’s no real explanation for Gardenhire’s fascination with a guy who is nothing more than a mediocre utility player. Jeff Reboulet and Denny Hocking were both far better players, and never got near the opportunities that Punto has been afforded.

That would seem to be the fundamental difference between Gardenhire and Tom Kelly. Gardenhire oddly tears down his most talented players and staunchly supports the bad ones. With TK, you could either play, or you couldn’t play. The Twins were in far better hands in those days. Nick Punto would never have started for a team managed by Kelly.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Presented without comment


This is a story in today's Star Tribune, in regards to Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, and next year's starting IF.


By LaVelle E. Neal, III
Star Tribune

When the Twins traded Luis Castillo to the Mets in July, the belief was that prospect Alexi Casilla would step in next season as the starting second baseman.

On Monday, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire let it be known who is his first choice at the position for 2008.

It's Nick Punto, who hasn't let his tremendous defense suffer this year despite one of the worst offensive seasons in recent major league history. Putting Punto at second would enable the Twins to search for a new third baseman this offseason.

"If we were to start right now I would say Nick would have a head up on [Casilla], believe me there," Gardenhire said. "I know what he can do, catch the ball, and make all the plays. So he's got a lead going into spring training, as far as I'm concerned.

"I hope [Punto] comes out and has a good spring. I like him in my lineup, somewhere. He makes things exciting. But he's got to play [well]. Got to come back and rebound, we all know that."

Punto has played most of the season at third base. While he could make a tidy sum selling DVDs on how to field the position, he is batting only .205 with one homer and 23 RBI and is one slump away from being the first full-time major leaguer since Rob Deer in 1991 to bat under .200 in a season.

In fact, Punto is batting .293 in September, raising his average to its highest mark since Aug. 14.

When told of Gardenhire's comments before Monday's 5-4 victory over Texas, Punto, 29, sounded like someone who had just had a heavy burden lifted.

"For him to have the confidence in me, that means a lot, it really does," said Punto, who hit .290 last season. "I'm going to work as hard as I ever have this offseason and come back and have a very successful season next year."

Casilla, 23, has showed a lot of talent in his stints with the Twins, the latest since being called up from Class AAA Rochester on July 31. But he also has made a rash of mistakes, many of them mental. It has fueled a belief that he needs more development time in the minors.

Casilla, batting .241 with 11 stolen bases in 50 games, was on the bench Monday for a second game in a row after arriving to the ballpark late Sunday, although Gardenhire said it was more because Punto has played well lately.

"He's swinging better, shortened his swing," Gardenhire said of Punto. "He's hitting the ball on the ground. Some balls are rolling through that haven't."

The Twins' six homers from third basemen this season are the fewest in the majors. The club is evaluating Brian Buscher as a possibility. Former first-round pick Matt Moses has floundered in the minors and was demoted to Class AA New Britain during the year.

"It would be nice to have another power bat," Punto said.

Gardenhire said the organization will search for a third baseman with some pop during the offseason. The free-agent pool is not deep: Mike Lowell stands out among a handful of possibilities. The Twins might have to part with a couple of their young pitchers in a deal for a third baseman.

But the manager apparently knows who he wants at second.

"I go into next year thinking [Punto] is going to have a very good opportunity to be my starting second baseman if we get a third baseman," Gardenhire said, "That's what I'm looking for. We have talked about getting a third baseman and getting him back to the middle of the field."

Thursday, September 13, 2007

The Terry Ryan era ends


Terry Ryan is out, Bill Smith is in as Twins GM. Scouting director Mike Radcliffe and baseball ops assistant Rob Antony are getting promoted to essentially work just underneath Smith. That should improve their ML scouting and development. Hard to say how it will affect their minor league scouting and the draft.

This may sound odd, but when you think about it, Terry Ryan stepping down as the Twins GM is an absolutely fascinating story, more so than even the departure of Kevin Garnett to the T-Wolves.
Everyone understood why KG had to go to Boston. But the Ryan story is a mystery. It could’ve been caused by a confluence of literally dozens of factors, and it could have repercussions that will still be felt 20 years from now.

I’ve ripped on Ryan hard this year, and I stand by all of it. He failed the team this year.
Having said that, my initial reaction to the news was an upset stomach, the feeling that this was merely the initial dropping of the bomb, with the horrible after-effects yet to come.
At Thursdays press conference it seemed that Ryan is simply ready to take on a lesser workload, as he will remain with the team as primarily a scout.
But there could be other factors that played into the decision.
*He feels as though he failed, and needs to step aside and let Smith, his replacement, take a shot.
*He fears that he has so angered Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and others, that the Twins will have a better chance of signing them with someone else doing the negotiating.
*The Pohlads have told him they will not pay Hunter and/or Santana, and Ryan is resigning in protest.
*He lost a power struggle with Ron Gardenhire. It’s a rather poorly kept secret that Gardy and Ryan butt heads regularly. Gardy butted heads with Al Newman and forced him out. Maybe he and Ryan are at odds often enough for Ryan to decide he’s had enough.
*He’s just tired of it. He’s always been the guy taking the bullet for Pohlad’s cheapness, and with the emergence of blogs and talk radio stuff in recent years, he’s taken much more heat from the fans, if not so much from the media. Some of it has been deserved, but I could understand if he’s had enough.

And the potential fallout
*My biggest fear is that Gardy will now have more power. He’s an awful evaluator of talent, and he’s dangerously loyal to bad players who “bust their tails.”
As much as Ryan failed to help the team this year, I was pretty confident that he’d do something to address 3B and LF. With Ryan gone, will Gardy lobby for giving Nick Punto another chance at 3B? Or 2B over Alexi Casilla? Will he be able to bully Smith? Or will Smith do a better job of reigning in Gardy’s lesser impulses?
*Will the team continue to have as much success in developing pitching? The rejuvenation of the franchise that began at the turn of the century came about because of a general change in philosophy to focus on drafting pitching, and Ryan was the driving force behind it. Ryan has struggled to identify valuable veterans, but he’s been more than astute at finding and developing young pitchers.
Ryan convinced teams to give away Santana, Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, Carlos Silva, Joe Mays and others essentially for free, and oversaw drafts that have loaded the Twins minor leagues with more pitching than any organization could know what to do with.
*Will Bill Smith make it his top priority to resign Santana and Hunter? It would sure help him make a good first impression with the fans and players.
However I’m afraid to say that I think it’s more likely Ryan is leaving because the team won’t let him sign those two than it is that he’s leaving to improve the chances of signing them.
*With a team on a payroll, erring on the conservative side is often the best way to go. Will Smith be an irresponsible spender? It sounds like he has a rep for being just as, if not more, conservative than Ryan.
On the other hand, Smith billed himself during Thursday’s press conference as an administrator, and made it clear he will lean heavily on his assistants to help in the evaluation process.

In the final analysis, Ryan’s career overall can be termed nothing less than a big success. After spending his first few years trying to keep an aging team afloat, he finally cut his losses, swallowed hard and blew the thing up. He started over, and by the turn of the century, had the organization poised for its longest period of sustained success in team history. With a strong finish, this year’s Twins could post a winning record for the seventh consecutive season. That would’ve seemed unfathomable in the 90s.

But in fairness, the success of the early 2000’s was due in part to the suckiness of the rest of the division. When the rest of the division got better, the Twins also had to.
They did, with the emergence of Santana, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Hunter and others. But if things continue the way they went this year, and Santana, Hunter and Morneau end up elsewhere, it’ll be hard not to look back at the Santana/Morneau era as a missed opportunity, and it would be hard to blame anyone more than Ryan for missing said opportunity.
No, not because the owner was cheap (though he unquestionably is), but because Ryan took the few discretionary funds he had and spent them on Ramon Ortiz, Nick Punto, Rondell White, Sidney Ponson, Tony Batista, Ruben Sierra, etc.

I’ll try to be somewhat optimistic that this can be a change for the better. Smith worked under Ryan and his predecessor, Andy McPhail, and will likely continue the basic philosophies that have worked for the team. Maybe he can make a couple significant moves early in his tenure to make a good first impression with the players.
But keep in mind, Ryan’s former assistant, Wayne Krivsky, got the Reds GM job, and by most accounts is off to an awful start there. So there are no guarantees.

And you can look at it this way - when Tom Kelly stepped aside, everyone was shocked, no one understood it, and conspiracy theories abounded.
Gardy replaced him, and despite being a buffoon, the Twins went on to great success.
There's a lot of similarities in this situation, and if the Twins can survive replacing TK with Gardy, they should be able to handle replacing Ryan with Smith.

One thing we know for sure, this will be one of the most important and interesting off-seasons in team history.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Ramble On, Sing my song




*Jason Kubel is up to .269, with 11 homers and 60 RBI. His OPS is approaching 800. His OPS+ has surpassed 100. Since the break, he's hitting .303/.374/.508. That's an OPS of 882, and an OPS+ of 130. That's really good.
And, while everyone has tried to pigeon-hole him as a DH, he's proven himself to be just fine in LF, far better than Jason Tyner or Rondell White.

I thought Kubel's breakout year would be this year, and thanks to a slow start and Ron Gardenhire's refusal to play him every day it hasn't happened.

But I'm pretty confident that Kubel will be one of the Twins best players in 2008.

*Brian Buscher's success between Double-A and Triple-A this year meant that his call-up was certainly well-deserved, and while I was anxious to get a look at him, I wasn't optimistic he was a legit prospect.

While he's been next to awful in the field, he's shown that he can hit major league pitching.
Yeah, it's been just 20 games, but in 50 ABs, he's at .280/.345/.400 and a couple homers. It would be a huge mistake to hand him a starting job next year, and the Twins wouldnt do that even if he was good enough to handle it, but I think he belongs on the '08 team. It'd be nice to have a good bat on the bench for once.

*I've defended Justin Morneau all year, and will continue to do so, but his homer drought is getting ridiculous. 1 HR since July. C'mon. Hit a goddamm dinger wouldja?

*Who else thinks USF could give the Michigan Wolverines a game? Notre Dame, too.

*I watched Blue Chips the other day. Probably the second best basketball movie ever, behind Hoosiers. Nick Nolte is awesome as the grizzled coach and Shaq is actually pretty good as the prized freshman center. Also, JT Walsh usually only shows up in good flicks.

Penny Hardaway, however, is the worst actor/athlete ever. Almost ruins the movie.

*Third best basketball movie ever? Toss up between TeenWolf and White Men Can't Jump. Remember the wise words of the coach in TeenWolf. Never play cards with a guy named after a city.

*Memo to Tiki Barber. Shut the fuck up.

*My votes for this year's baseball award winners:
AL MVP: A-Rod. Duh.
AL CY: CC Sabathia
AL ROY: Reggie Willits
AL MGR: Joe Torre

NL MVP: ummmm....Prince Fielder
NL CY: Brandon Webb
NL ROY: That Tuzolweski guy for the Rockies
NL MGR: Lou Pineilla I guess. Man I hate the Cubs.

*I've discovered that if I drink a ton of Gatorade before bed after a night of drinking, the hangover isnt near as bad. Also helps to brush your teeth before bed and again in the morning. I guess alot of the booze hangs out in your mouth.

*The Vikings are boooooorrrring. I don't get fans that say baseball is boring, but then get all worked up watching the Vikings and Falcons trade 3 and outs for three hours.

*Ok, maybe the Vikes wont be as bad as I thought. But maybe they will. The Falcons suck.

*I can't believe how many hot chicks work at the Argus Leader.

*Can we just assume now that any politician who is publicly opposed to gay rights is gay?

This is the assumption I now automatically make about anyone who says they belong to either party:

If you're a Democrat, you are a whiny pussy who opposes responsibility and personal accountability, and wants to tell other people what to do with their money. In other words, you're a woman.

If you're a Republican, you're a closet homo who wants to tell other people what to do with their penises. Maybe instead of trying to go around taking away everyone's porn and condoms you should try going to a strip club or buying a titty flick from Lodgenet. Good stuff. (I realize some republicans are republicans for fiscal reasons. Not my problem. These are the people ruining your party. If you don't like being painted with this brush than do something about it. Stop giving a forum to these hatemongers).

I think Lewis Black said it best when he said,

"We have the republican party, a party of bad ideas, and the democratic party, a party of no ideas."


*I went 13-3 predicting NFL games in week 1. I'm picking Detroit to beat the Vikes Sunday. If the Vikes win this one, maybe I'll start coming around.

*Do you realize that from the end of the Canaries season until the beginning of the Stampede season there are no sporting events in Sioux Falls, probably the whole state, in which you can purchase beer? No wonder I don't get into college football all that much.


*Go see 3:10 to Yuma. And Superbad. Unless you dont like dick jokes.

But come on, who doesn't like dick jokes?

*John Mayer - horrible. I just like reminding people.

Friday, September 07, 2007

A break from baseball

I just haven't felt up to writing much about the Twins lately. A look around the other Twins blogs on the net shows that I'm not alone.
And, judging by the decrease in traffic around these parts, it's not like people are dying without more analysis of Nick Punto's suckiness.

So I'll offer my take on the Vikings. This isn't a football blog and it never will be. My interest in the NFL seems to deteriorate more and more each year. The more popular the league gets, the more I have a distaste for it.

But while I'm not much of an NFL fan these days, I'm still a Vikings fan.
Here are a few thoughts on the '07 season. I'm not optimistic.



I don't expect the Vikings to be good.
At all.
Of course, nobody in the this era of the NFL is very good, so I guess there's always a chance.
(About this whole parity thing. I really hated how the 49ers and Cowboys won everything back in the day, but it seemed like the league was stronger and the games were better. Now it seems like every team feels like they have a chance going into the season, and thats good, but it seems like the league isn't as good overall. I honestly don't even remember the last time I enjoyed a Vikings game. Too bad I keep watching anyway)

I think the offense will be quite shitty.
For one, Tarvaris Jackson will be worse than Brad Johnson was last year. He will be more mobile and strong armed, but he'll make poorer decisions, and probably be less accurate on short and intermediate routes.

Also while mobile quarterbacks can keep plays alive, they also are prone to frequent fumbles. Taking a sack and punting is better than scrambling for six yards and losing the football.

Adrian Peterson gives the Vikings their first and only dynamic player on offense. But will he stay healthy?
Everyone talks about what a great 1-2 punch he makes with Chester Taylor, but Taylor is overrated to begin with. He controls the ball (and the clock), but, if you take away the one fluke 96-yard run against Seattle, he averaged a measly 3.7 yards per carry. He's basically Mike Alstott.

Bobby Wade and Robert Ferguson could be decent WRs. I think Troy Williamson might snap out of it this year and actually catch some footballs. Sidney Rice might end up being the best WR on the roster.

I think they will miss Jermaine Wiggins.
I don't like the right side of the O-line.
Defensively it will be good to have a healthy Chad Greenway. Ben Leber and EJ Henderson are average.
Erasmus James, Kenechi Udeze, Kevin Williams - what can we expect from those guys?
Will Cedric Griffin survive in the secondary? And how bad will they miss Mike Tomlin? Will teams ever bother to even try to run the ball against them?

Bottom line - I don't think this team is ready. I think Brad Childress deserves some credit for recognizing what a poor job he and his staff did last year in handling the offense and in some cases even the personal relationships with media, players and fans, and taking steps to improve in those areas.

But I'm still not sold on him being a capable coach.
He took over a 9-7 team with lots of talent. If they go 6-10 again, or worse, does he deserve another year. Why couldn't he have tried to improve the 9-7 club? Why did he have to start all over and force us to watch this garbage?

Zim's 2007 NFC North Predicted Standings
1. Chicago 10-6
2. Green Bay 7-9
3. Detroit 6-10
4. Vikes 5-11


Some other Vikes predictions

Sports Illustrated Preview: 6-10

Jim Souhan, Strib: 7-9

Pat Reusse, Strib: 9-7

Newt, skolvikes.blogspot.com: NFC North Division Champs

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Shut up, Johan


Johan Santana will not win the Cy Young award this year, thanks in part to the fact that he is 0-5 against the 1st place team in the division, the Cleveland Indians. He pitched crappy against them again Monday, as the Twins fell back to 69-69.
Santana is 14-11, with a 3.15 ERA and 203 Ks in 194 innings. He's been outstanding to be sure, but this is shaping up to be the least impressive year of his career since joining the rotation.
That's all fine and good. Even if he's been a little down this year, Santana is not one of the reasons the Twins will be watching the playoffs on TV this year.

Having said that, I would like to tell Johan to shut the hell up.
For the second straight start, Johan pretty much knocked his own team out of the game early. Last time he gave up four runs in the 1st inning, this time he gave up a run in each of the first three (a Jason Bartlett error contributed to one of them, but so did his own leadoff walk). Yes, the Twins struggled to score runs, but Johan flat out failed to pitch like an ace in his last two starts.
Yet he blatantly threw his teammates under the bus in his postgame comments both times. Rather than take any responsibility whatsoever for leaving pitches up in the zone and walking too many hitters, Johan says, essentially, it's not my fault, I did my part, we lose as a team, and the rest of the team isn't measuring up.
For one it's only half true, and for another, it doesn't do any good to say those things anyway.
Johan has been victim of poor run support pretty much his whole career, so I sympathize on some level, but dude, shut the fuck up.
Blaming the Twins for not scoring against CC Sabathia when you gave up 8 runs in 12 innings in your last two starts just makes you look like a dick. How 'bout giving some credit to Sabathia for doing to the Twins what you, as a 2-time Cy Young award winner, should've done to Cleveland.

*There's a firestorm brewing over a Jim Souhan column in the Strib suggesting that its time to move Joe Mauer to 3B. Gardy and Mauer are all pissed about it, especially the suggestion that Mauer should make a better effort to play through pain.
I'm not for Mauer moving out from behind the plate yet, but it's pretty obvious it's gonna happen eventually.
Souhan does point out that players like Mike Sweeney, Craig Biggio and Todd Zeile all went on to improved offensive numbers when they moved out from behind the plate, but Gardy also points out that none of those players were as good behind the dish as Mauer is.

*Would've been pretty cool if Scott Baker had finished that perfect game. Either way, the dude's been pretty good lately. Kinda like I said he would all year long.

*Nick Blackburn got called up and threw a scoreless inning Monday. He made it from Double-A to the majors this year, the latest quick-rising pitching prospect the Twins have raised. I wonder if they're ever going to trade one of them.

*If the reason Gardy keeps playing Nick Punto, Jason Tyner and Rondell White is because the team hasn't been officially, mathematically elminated from the playoff race, then he's a total, blithering idiot.
Seriously, there's no reason not to give Brian Buscher a long look, not to mention giving Jason Kubel as many ABs as possible. Wouldn't mind seeing Denard Span and Matt Tolbert, too.

Friday, August 31, 2007

Bringing the pain


(You can see Rondell White's enthusiasm for the game in this photo: "Ain't no motherfuckin' way I'm playing 162 of these motherfuckers")

Today I will highlight all that went wrong for the Twins this year. If you're a Circle-me-Bert-sign holding, Lew Ford-loving, Dick Bremer-kool aid-drinking, Piranha T-shirt-wearing weenie who thinks everything written about the Twins should be a bed-time story about how they hustle and play hard and have a small payroll, you might want to avert your eyes. This is gonna get ugly.

Terry Ryan got right to work in fucking this team up.
He picked up the option on Carlos Silva. Seemed questionable at the time, but worked out okay. But then he resigned Lew Ford, Rondell White and Nick Punto. Those three moves alone should probably have called his sanity into question. But it didnt end there.

Ramon Ortiz was signed to a 1 year $3.1 million deal and guaranteed a spot in the rotation.
Sidney Ponson was signed to a 1 year, $1 million deal, and while the public was told he had to earn a spot in the rotation, it was clear he had the team had every intention of making him the 5th starter from the day he signed.

The only move made that wasn't terrible was the signing of 3B Jeff Cirillo, and that turned out to be somewhhat disappointing. There was no real insurance for Punto and White's totally predictable fall.

It's possible the Twins could've survived these moves had they been corrected, or if the rest of the team overachieved, two things that happened in 2006, allowing the team to recover from similar preseason mistakes.

But the Twins are still at this moment running Punto out to 3B every day, even as he threatens some of the most historically bad hitting performances of all time. Meanwhile countless cheap and serviceable hitters changed teams without the Twins getting in on any of it, except for ridding themselves of two infielders (Cirillo and Luis Castillo) who actually had some value.

Again, Ryan comes off as looking woefully inept on this front.

But not all the blame can go to the front office.
Some players didn't live up.
Injuries certainly have played a factor, but Joe Mauer has had a flat-out disappointing year. .294 with 5 homers is good, but with the rest of the lineup what it is, the Twins clearly need more from him.

Yes, he's still one of the top hitting catchers around, but just because he plays a position where less offense is expected doesn't let him off the hook. The Twins didnt draft him No. 1 overall to hit .294 with 5 homers, no matter how pretty his OBP is.

Michael Cuddyer, like Mauer, has been a minor disappointment. His line of .277/.355/.442 is more in line for a 7 hitter, not a cleanup hitter.

I could write for an hour about all the ways Punto has hurt the team offensively, but that's the Twins' fault for expecting a mediocre utility player to be anything more than a terrible everyday player.

I'll admit, I expected Rondell White to be decent this year. Maybe 350-400 at-bats, a .280 average with 12 homers. Never should've brought him back. Fool me once, shame on...well you know.

I also really thought Jason Kubel would have big year, something along the lines of .280-20 homers. He might be closer if Gardy would commit to playing him every day, but regardless of who's at fault, he's been a disappointment.

Juan Rincon's steroids wore off, and now he's terrible.
Dennys Reyes has been effective when healthy, but since he's been hurt a lot, he hasn't been able to recreate last year.

Overuse probably has something to do with it, but Pat Neshek has been getting roughed up of late.

Jason Bartlett and Luis Castillo were maybe a little less effective than last year, but not enough for them to accept any blame for what has happened. Same goes for Johan Santana. Same goes for Justin Morneau. Morneau's average has dropped to .284 from last years .321, and he has hit only 1 homer in the last month, but I dont think you can complain about 29 HRs, 95 RBI and a .527 SLG with another month still to go. Plus his defense has continued to improve. Mike Redmond did a serviceable job of subbing for Mauer when he was hurt.

There are only three players on the entire Twins roster who performed better than I expected they would this year: Torii Hunter, the team's MVP this year, Carlos Silva and Matt Guerrier. I guess you could include Scott Baker and Matt Garza, but I'm honestly not that surprised by the success those two have had.


Last year, with the whole Tony Batista-Juan Castro thing, I just figured Terry Ryan had a bad year. My feeling that he's one of the top GMs in baseball did not change.

But after this year, I'm not so sure. He was in charge of a team with enough talent that competing in the AL Central was a very reasonable expectation. But not only did he fail to improve it, he actually made it worse. He simply failed at his job this year, miserably.

I'm optimistic that he knows this, and has plans in store to make up for it in '08. We'll see.