Tuesday, October 09, 2007

The Hitters


Yeah, I'm finally getting around to some season wrap-up stuff. It was too depressing at first. Now I may be ready.
I'll start in earnest today by taking a brief look back at the hitters - what they did this year and what to expect next year.

Joe Mauer
Probably still the best all-around catcher in the game. Defensively he's as good as it gets, which is why the Twins are (correctly) resisting the urge to move him to 3B as long as possible.

I'm not ready to suggest he's brittle or injury-prone, but he needs to get to the plate 500 times a season.
My guess is that this 2007 will be the worst year he has for at least 10 years (and it was still pretty good), but if he never does develop into a power hitter the Twins should move him out of the 3-hole and into one of the top two spots in the order.

Mike Redmond
Probably the best backup catcher in the game. He's actually quite similar to Jason Tyner offensively, in that they both hit for a pretty good average, albeit with marginal to bad OBP and SLG%, and they both seem to come up with big hits in tough spots (seem being the key word).

Justin Morneau
Should we worry about his poor second half? The guy was on pace to hit almost 50 homers, and he ended up with 31. Jason Bartlett had a higher SLG in August and September than Morneau did.

The biggest reason for concern is that lefties seem to have figured him out. He'll need to make an adjustment to counter that, or he'll be a .270-30 guy instead of a .300-40 guy.

Defensively he's become quite good, probably as good as any 1B in the league.

Nick Punto
We've been through this. He sucks as an everyday player, he's decent as a utility guy. End of story.

Jason Bartlett
Made a few too many errors on routine plays, but overall he makes more plays than the average shortstop. Didn't hit much in April or September, but was pretty good in between. He'll be the leadoff guy next year, which I'm not convinced is the best place for him (depends on who the CF is probably. Kenny Lofton anyone?).

Needs to be at least a .280/.340 guy, if not .300/.360.

Alexi Casilla
Looked almost ready in April, when he was called up due to injuries. Then after spending most of the year playing every day in Triple-A, was somehow worse when he got called back up. He was so bad that he could lose the 2B job to Nick Punto next spring, and I might actually even support it.

Brian Buscher
Going into 2007 Buscher looked like a guy who would spend most of his career in the minors and would maybe never reach the bigs. But after a big year moving from Double-A to the majors, he's probably the best offensive prospect in the organization.

Defensively he looks pretty bad, but so did Corey Koskie when he first came up. 3B is a position where you can make yourself better without a lot of athleticism.

Buscher doesn't look ready to be an everyday 3B in the majors yet, but he does look like he could be a useful bat for the Twins. He should make the team and provide some offensive depth, with a chance to gradually increase his playing time.

Torii Hunter
The last two years have been two of the best of his career, and after a terrible 2006 season in the field (that nonetheless garnered him another Gold Glove), he was pretty close to his old self in CF this year.

I still think there's an outside chance the Twins resign him, but at this point I'm talking like 20%.
Whether or not the Twins could survive the loss of a guy who hit .287 with 28 homers, 44 doubles, 18 steals and 107 RBIs depends largely on whether or not the rest of the lineup improves. In other words, if Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer can each hit in the .280 with 25 homers range, and if they can get a decent 3B, they could probably still be OK with Kenny Lofton or whoever in CF.

Jason Kubel
Much like Michael Cuddyer, he keeps pushing that breakthrough season back a year. I thought for sure it would be in '07, and it kind of was, but far too late.

That's partly Ron Gardenhire's fault for not playing him every day.
Regardless, Kubel was the team's best hitter after the All-Star break, and should be good for at least a .275-20 homer season next year.

Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was a little disappointing this year, but he was still pretty good. The problem was that everyone else was so bad, or at least, not as good as in '06 - like Cuddyer.

As mentioned earlier, if Hunter leaves, the Twins need more production out of their corner OF's.
That means 25 homers, not 16.
Also, dude's got a cannon, plays the baggy very well, and takes excellent angles into the gaps.

Jason Tyner
Tyner can hit in the .280-.300 range if his playing time is limited. The more at-bats he gets, the more that average will tumble. That's why there's no way the Twins can even consider him as the starting CF if Hunter leaves. He has zero power and does not get on base very much for a slap hitter.

He is, however, a pretty decent backup OF, because he's sound defensively, runs okay, and can put the ball in play.

Garrett Jones
He's never been a particularly good hitter in the minors, let alone the majors.
But he does have power, something the Twins always lack. There's no way Jones can be a useful starter, however, his power could make him an intriguing pinch-hitter. He showed signs of being able to hang with major league pitching in the season's final weeks. Could give Morneau a day off or two at 1B.

Chris Heintz
Now that Jose Morales has made his major league debut, I don't see how Heintz ever plays another game at the ML level. He's not good enough to be even a 3rd string catcher.

Jose Morales

This was his first year as a catcher, and he hit .311, then got called up to the Twins, went 3 for 3 in his debut, and broke his ankle. He's probably ready to be the No. 3 catcher.

Matt LeCroy
It was good to see you again, Matty. Enjoy Japan. Or perhaps retirement.



3 comments:

ZSS said...

You need to read this because she's on your hate list.

Complete with audio clip goodness!

Anonymous said...

There's no crying in baseball!

Anonymous said...

Garrrr, yee team be full of yellow bellied scallywags. Garrrrrdenhire be as bad as the sex with me pirates out on the lonely sea.
I be hoping they be signing some lumber fur the season of next year. Aye, she be a long season for this Buccanneer if not.