Sunday, August 19, 2007

Forget the offense, how 'bout the pitching


The Twins have scored a major league worst 112 runs in 35 games since the All-Star break, an average of 3.2 runs a game. The Yankees have scored 271 runs since the break.

One more time for those of you who read slow.
NYY - 271 runs since All-Star break.
MIN - 112 runs since All-Star break.

The Twins should probably be something like 10-25 in those 35 games, but they are actually a respectable 17-18. Just this weekend, they took 2 of 3 from Texas while scoring three runs in the whole series.

The reason has been the starting pitching, Boof Bonser notwithstanding.

Johan Santana's near perfect outing Sunday lowered his ERA to 2.88, while he has posted 191 K's and allowed just 138 hits in 175 innings. He's only won 13 games, but if he can get to 17, and keeps his other numbers steady, he can still win another Cy Young award.

Matt Garza has a 2.05 ERA in 7 starts, and I think he's very close to being an elite starter already. He's probably the No. 2 starter, a potential All-Star.
Meanwhile Scott Baker has been better than even I would've thought possible, and I've been one of the only people defending him. Baker is 6-5 with a 4.53 ERA, and has 73 Ks in 99 innings, in which he's allowed 103 hits.
It'll be interesting to see if Baker remains a part of the Twins long-term plans with so many other young pitchers looking to make their mark. The way he's been going, it'd be tough to leave Baker out of the picture.
Even Carlos Silva has been good this year, with a 4.17 ERA in 25 starts.
The weakest link has been the only guy anyone liked besides Johan before the year, Boof Bonser.
0-8 in his last 12 starts, Bonser's ERA is now at 4.93. He's allowed 165 hits and 53 walks in 144 innings, for an alarming WHIP of 1.51.
The Strib reported this weekend that the team has acknowledged talking to Boof about losing some weight. He's currently at about 260, and the fact that he is always good for the first 3 or 4 innings then runs into trouble certainly suggests stamina could be a problem.
Whether or not that works remains to be seen, but I think Bonser will have a good career, possibly as a closer or set-up man, if he doesn't get it together as a starter.
Really, 4.93 isn't terrible for a guy in his first full major league season. He'll be fine.

The problem the Twins are running into is too many starters.
Looking at their minor league system, there are endless possibilities for the rotation.
Santana
Silva
Bonser
Garza
Baker
Kevin Slowey
Glen Perkins
Nick Blackburn
Francisco Liriano
Jeff Manship
Yohan Pino
Oswaldo Sosa
Anthony Swarzak
Brian Duensing

Seriously, all of these guys are going to pitch in the majors, and all of them could be very good.
Someone is going to have to either be traded or moved to the bullpen.

They should be creative here.
It sounds like the Twins are going to try to correct Juan Rincon rather than get rid of him after this year. With a sudden lack of depth in the bullpen, I guess they might as well, but I'm not optimistic he's salvageable.
Jesse Crain's injuries are quite serious, and I'm not optimistic about him either.

So there will likely be openings in the 'pen.
Silva says he wants to come back, so I say bring him back and stick him in the pen.
I'd probably trade Joe Nathan for some offense, make Liriano or Bonser the closer.
It'll be interesting to see what they do, but either way, they're in very good shape, and while they're still lacking offense in their minor league system, it's better to be overloaded with pitching, I think.

*Roadrunners season over
Despite finishing 3-7 in league play during the regular season, the Renner Roadrunners amateur team, boldly, courageously, brilliantly managed by a terrific .264 hitter named Matt Zimmer, played to the second to last day of the season, finishing in the Class A final four.
We faced elimination in district play, and three times in the state tournament, and kept winning to keep playing.
But our luck ran out Saturday, as we were eliminated by eventual runner-up Brookings.
Playing the state tournament at the Birdcage was a lot of fun. It was a great year, the most fun I've had in amateur ball in a long time.
For the first time in my life, I'm sad the season is over. Usually by this time, I'm ready for it to end. As I write this, I already can't wait for next year. We'll be back in the hunt.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I've heard talk about moving Neshek to the closing role. He certainly has the stuff, but seems like he may not have the stones for it. What do YOU think?

Anonymous said...

By "YOU" I'm assuming you mean me as I post many knowledgeable comments on this blog. From what I understand, the Twins are holding back on moving Neshek into the closer role until they are able to replace his right elbow with a mechanical robot one. Much like they did to Liriano.
If you have any more questions, feel free to ask. I check back periodically.

SDTwin said...

Neshek could definitely close.
But I liike him where he is.
Bonser or Liriano would be better fits, in my opinion.

Anonymous said...

Heres a glimpse of the potent Twins lineup last night. Leading off was Casilla, who was 0-4, and is hitting .234. Batting 6th was Rondell White, who's hitting .138, and was 0-3. Garrett jones pinch hit for RonDL, and was 0-1. Jones is hitting an astounding .148. And then Nicky Punto was brutal as always at the plate going 0-4, raising his season average to .202. Terry Ryan, you deserve a pat on the back for assembling such a potent offensive lineup.

Punto's glove, and bare hand are pretty fricken good though.

Anonymous said...

The Twins refuse to talk about promoting Neshek to the closer role until his website stops being so gay. I'm not sure Neshek can overcome this obstacle.

Anonymous said...

I'm really glad that Terry Ryan decided to keep Rincon. Also, by the weekend, Punto's average will be under .200.