Thursday, October 12, 2006

Looking back, looking ahead

There was kind of a feeling all season that anything the Twins did in 2006 was a bonus.
They started so slowly, and didn't figure out who they were until June, which led most fans, including myself, to start drooling at the thought of what next year could be like with a fresh start.
With most of the Twins core set to return, here's a look at each player - what they did in '06 and their prospects for '07.
Position players first, pitchers later.
Catchers
Joe Mauer (.347-13-84)
The best catcher in the game. Won the batting title, posted a .429 on-base percentage and was excellent behind the plate. He slumped a little in the second half, and seemed to come up empty in key spots regularly down the stretch. He hit into 24 double plays, third most in the AL.
I still think he'll hit more homers, but in the meantime he might be better suited batting second.
Mike Redmond (.341-0-23)
The best backup catcher in the game. He hit .341 while usually (and ridiculously) batting 3rd in the order. Not as good as Mauer defensivley but still solidly above average. Has been a valuable clubhouse presence as well.
Chris Heintz (0-for 1 at-bat)
A pretty good minor league catcher, he's in the wrong organization if he wants to play in the big leagues.
Infield
Justin Morneau (.321-34-130)
Unless this year was a fluke, and I don't believe it was, Morneau appears to be the best all-around Twins hitter since Kirby Puckett. He has few weaknesses, can hit for power and average, uses the whole field, and never tries to do too much. How many times did he come up to bat in a situation where everyone was waiting for him to go deep, only to see him lace a single to left-field? That's the sign of a great hitter. Hopefully he gets locked up for a long time.
Nick Punto (.290-1-45)
The surprise of the team, Punto posted a .352 on-base percentage and was as good in the field as any Twins 3B since Gary Gaetti.
Having said that, I have doubts about whether he can do it again. He slumped considerably down the stretch and looked exposed in the playoffs. Gardy has already said he wants Punto to be the everday 3B next year, but I'd rather see him take on a utility role, where he can get plenty of starts at both 2B and SS to give Luis Castillo and Jason Bartlett a rest.
Jason Bartlett (.309-2-32)
Bartlett showed signs of being a future All-Star, finally earning Gardy's trust. He was excellent in the field and shows lots of good habits at the plate. He started 99 straight games after getting called up, and I think giving Punto 15 starts at short next year would help keep Bartlett fresh.
Fatigue may have been a factor in Bartlett's embarrassing performance in the ALDS.
Luis Castillo (.296-3-49)
Castillo gave the Twins perhaps a little less than what they hoped for, but he was still quite good. He has good at-bats and despite looking like a tin-man at times, actually has great range at 2B.
He has one year left on his contract, and his tenure as a Twin will be over after that. I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins trade him and move Punto to second, because I just don't trust Castillo's knees. I wouldn't be shocked if he missed 50 games due to injuries next year. Much like Shannon Stewart of the last couple years, he doesn't appear to have much left physically.
Luis Rodriguez (.235-2-6)
The guy spent the entire season on the active roster and had six RBI. He played in 59 games and had 115 at-bats. Granted the Twins were in must-win mode for pretty much the last 100 games of the season, but I still think he should've played a little more. He's a pretty decent utility IF, but he can't be the only utility guy, because he's not much of a SS.
Alexi Casilla (.250-0-0)
He got a brief taste of the bigs in a September call-up, and will likely open next season as the starting 2B at Rochester, with the idea of taking over for Castillo in 2008. He looks like he has some promise.
Terry Tiffee (.244-2-6)
A perfect example of first-impressions going a long way. In his ML debut in 2004 Tiffee had two hits, including a game-winning double, and two days later hit a walk-off game winning homer off (guess who) Dennys Reyes. Fans have vastly overrated him ever since. The reality is he sucks, and the Twins removed him from their 40-man roster this week. If someone claims him off waivers they'll get him, otherwise he'll probably spend all of next year in Rochester.
Phil Nevin (.190-1-4)
He didn't do much after the Twins acquired him, though he did hit a total of 23 homers on the year. I wouldn't mind having him as a veteran pinch-hitter and emergency 1B/C/3B, but he probably wants to move on, and the Twins will surely accomodate him.
Outfielders
Torii Hunter (.278-31-98)
Back for another year, and if he stays healthy expect another season hitting around .270 with 25-30 homers. The question is his defense, which ranged from poor to average most of last season. Torii's on the wrong side of 30, and when Kirby Puckett hit that age he moved to RF. Something to think about.
Michael Cuddyer (.284-24-109)
Exactly what you want in a corner outfielder. Good bat with power, strong arm, dependable glove. Hopefully the Twins lock him up.
Rondell White (.246-7-38)
Probably not worth the risk. He was great once he got healthy, but he'd be almost certain to get hurt again next year. Plus he's a poor defensive outfielder, and Gardy refuses to DH him.
Jason Kubel (.241-8-26)
He can flat out hit, evidenced by a white-hot streak in June where he appeared poised to really break out. But his knees started bothering him again and he tapered off badly.
There are questions about his commitment, due largely to the fact that he's in terrible shape. He'll never be an OF, but if he can get into better shape he'd be a great DH.
Shannon Stewart (.293-2-21)
The same smooth and efficient lead-off man he ever was, but it's clear that he'll never be healthy. The Twins won't even consider bringing him back, and it's possible he'll retire.
Lew Ford (.226-4-18)
No amount of Lewwwwww chants can hide the fact that Ford's career has, for the last two seasons, plummeted like an elevator with a broken suspension cord. He went from .299-15-72 to .264-7-52 to .226-4-18. Though he's still an excellent defensive OF, there is little reason to consider bringing him back.
Jason Tyner (.312-0-18)
A major part of the '06 team's success, but not a good candidate to play every day next year. The .312 average is deceptive - he rarely walks and almost all of his hits are singles - but he's still a better option off the bench than Ford.
Josh Rabe (.286-3-7)
If the Twins want to keep 5 outfielders, not counting Kubel, Rabe probably makes the team. Otherwise he's a career minor leaguer. Not good enough defensively to be a valuable bench player.

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