Thursday, October 19, 2006

Looking back, looking ahead, Pt. 2

This week, the pitchers.
Johan Santana (19-6, 2.77, 245 K's)
If there weren't such a large percentage of Cy Young voters who are stupid enough to base their vote simply on wins (the one stat pitchers have the least control over) Santana would be about to win his 3rd straight Cy Young award. As it is, he'll settle for 2 out of 3.
He's a dependable workhorse, the very definition of an ace.
Brad Radke (12-9, 4.32)
After a horrible start, Radke was outstanding from June through August, then battled through semi-serious injuries to contribute in September. He has indicated that he will retire, though no announcement has been made. I still have a hunch that Radke hasn't pitched his last game, but with the injuries he had to pitch through this year, he'd probably have to take 2007 off even if he wants to come back.
Don't expect to see Radke in '07, but don't be surprised if he resurfaces in 2008, either with the Twins or perhaps the Devil Rays.
Carlos Silva (11-15, 5.94)
It's tough to lose 15 games on a team that only lost 66 all year, but Silva stunk. A few times he appeared to have things under control, then he'd go right back to stinking.
The Twins have until the end of the World Series to decide if they want to pick up his $4 million option. I don't think I'd do it. And if I did, I'd look to trade him.
He's still got some value, as he's young, has a strong arm, can eat up innings, and before 2006 he was coming off a couple of excellent seasons.
Boof Bonser (7-6, 4.22)
After a couple of call-ups with mixed results, Boof was an ace in his third (and permanent) stint with the Twins.
He also pitched six strong innings in Game 2 of the ALDS, further evidence that he's ready to be a key cog in the rotation.
He doesn't have particularly overwhelming stuff - a low 90's fastball and a decent curve, but he really seemed to learn how to pitch, attacking hitters and throwing strikes.
I don't think Boof will ever be a true No. 1, but a Kevin Tapani-type career looks like a possibility.
Still, don't be surprised if he has some sophomore struggles next year. Pitchers always do.
Francisco Liriano (12-3, 2.16)
The biggest question mark in the organization. The Twins seem determined to avoid surgery, but I have my doubts about whether he can make a 100% recovery without it.
If he's healthy, though, he's the most unhittable pitcher alive.
Scott Baker (5-8, 6.37)
As bad in '06 as he was excellent in '05.
But he has good stuff, and still showed some flashes of what he's capable of, especially in a couple starts against the Yankees.
I think he can be a solid No. 3, maybe even one day a No. 2. But he won't have a spot handed to him in '07.
Matt Garza (3-6, 5.76)
Touted as a future No. 1, but his stuff is nowhere near as good as Liriano or Santana's.
Still, the minor league numbers are hard to ignore, and Garza held his own pretty well for a guy who started the year in A-ball.
Will likely begin next year in the rotation.
Glen Perkins (0-0, 1.59)
Looked great in a brief call-up, earning a spot on the postseason roster. He has a great shot to make the club next year, either as a starter or reliever.
Mike Smith (0-0, 12.00)
Never should've been called up, even for one start. Decent minor league filler, I suppose.
Dave Gassner (DNP)
Also minor league filler, might be able to fill a bullpen spot one day. Removed from 40-man roster, so someone else could pick him up.
JD Durbin (DNP)
Had a fine season in Triple-A, vaulting himself back onto the team's radar. Will be given a look next spring.
Beau Kemp (DNP)
Also made a nice minor league comeback, also will get a look.
Errol Simonitsch (DNP)
A big lefty who had a decent year in the minors. Will compete in spring training, but likely begin season at Triple-A.
Kevin Slowey (DNP)
The next big prospect after Liriano and Garza. Had a huge year in the minors.
Will likely begin '07 in Triple-A.
Matt Guerrier (1-0, 3.36) An excellent long-relief/mop-up guy, who can also spot start. Guerrier is not an elite level reliever despite his excellent statistics. He thrives because he is used properly. As long as he's cheap, the Twins will keep him around.
Willie Eyre (1-0, 5.31) Had his moments, but ultimately was unimpressive in his rookie season. Ironically, he only pitched in one meaningful situation all year long - the extra inning game at Chicago - and he picked up the win with two shutout (and very gutty) innings. At best, he'll be back in the same role next year. At worst, they'll find someone else and he'll be back in Triple-A.
Juan Rincon (3-1, 2.91) Struggled late, but wasn't at 100% health. I still think he's the best set-up guy in baseball when healthy. Could start if he had to. However, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in trade talks.
Jesse Crain (4-5, 3.52) Crain isn't as bad as Twins fans paint him to be, he just seems bad in comparison to the rest of the outstanding bullpen. He's a good second-tier setup guy, and could probably be a decent second-tier closer somewhere, which is why he also could be part of trade talks.
Pat Neshek (4-2, 2.19) Sidearm guys are an enigma. Neshek was unhittable for a long stretch after his call-up, but was only average down the stretch. Still, he's locked into the pen for next year, and will most likely have another solid season.
Denny Reyes (5-0, 0.89) Where the hell did this come from? I would argue that Reyes' 2006 season was the most unlikely performance in the entire major leagues. A 0.89 ERA? Are you kidding me? Reyes gave up a homer in Seattle (I can't remember who hit it) way back on June 8, the day the Twins famously dropped to 25-33. The next day they began their 71-33 run that took them to the division title, and Reyes' emergence seemed to coincide.
Let's get one thing straight. There is absolutely no way Reyes will repeat this performance next year. It's almost impossible.
But he's still better than JC Romero.
Joe Nathan (7-0, 1.58) The best closer in baseball. Period.
He blew two saves, and the Twins won both of those games. Some have suggested trading Nathan, arguing that closers are essentially a dime a dozen. In some cases that's true, because a lot of slightly-above average pitchers (Huston Street, Todd Jones, Eddie Guardado, Bob Wickman) become pretty good closers. But Nathan is elite. He shouldn't be traded unless someone like Miguel Cabrera or Alex Rodriguez becomes part of the discussion.

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