Tuesday, July 05, 2005

Breaking down the break

The Holiday weekend has to be considered a success for the Twins.
They had to get at least five of six against KC and TB, and they did just that.
Then they opened a difficult road series with the Golden State Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim California-Los Angeles with a nice win. Scott Baker, the Twins second round draft pick in 2002, makes his long-awaited first Major League start tonight. Baker is one of the top prospects in the Twins entire organization - they're very high on him. I'm excited to see how he does. He pitched one scoreless inning of relief against the D-Rays while Rincon was serving his suspension.
As daunting as the 81/2 game deficit is, the Twins actually have a better record right now than they have at this point in the season in any of their three division championship seasons.
Still, it would be way cooler to hang a banner in the Dome for a fourth straight division title than that of a wild card, so even though there'd be no shame in qualifying for the playoffs that way, (as the last 3 World Series champions have) the Twins still want to find a way to catch their rivals.
The pitching, after a not-quite-brief-enough slump, seems to have righted itself, though Radke and his sore neck remain a question.
The bullpen is also going strong, with Nathan's control problems somewhat under control.
So of course, the big question remains the infield.
Lil' Nicky Punto is back, and that's great, but anyone who thinks he's the savior is wearing their ass for a hat.
Luis Rodriguez has been very good as well. The Twins were never high on him, but he's proving that he belongs in the big leagues.
And Juan Castro seems to get a couple big hits just when you're ready to bench him no matter how good his glove is.
Cuddyer sucks, and is hurt, Williams is hurt, Rivas sucks and is hurt......it remains apparent that the Twins need to add a player here.
The way I see it there are three serious options:
A. Joe Randa
B. Edgardo Alfonzo
C. Bret Boone

A: Randa
Age: 35
Pos: 3B
Bats: R
Salary: 2.15 M
Numbers: .296, 12 HR, 43 RBI, .367 OBP, 20 2B.
Odds of a deal: I'm guessing 10 to 1.
Randa has been discussed at length among the Twins Cities media and blogworld, including here, and I must say the above numbers are pretty damn good for a half season. In fact, he's having his best year since 1999-2000, when he went .314-16-84 and .304-15-106.
Over an 8-year career Randa's seasonal averages are: .287, 14 HR, 82 RBI, 35 2B, .342 OBP. He's never won a gold glove, though he's generally regarded as one of the top 5 or 6 in the game at his position with the glove. With his salary, the Twins could explore keeping him beyond this year, though at his age that'd surprise me. Then again, they need a veteran in that infield somewhere.
The Twins reportedly were close to a deal for Randa, but now reports say the Twins interest in 'The Joker' has cooled, though it isn't clear exactly why. My guess is the Reds asked for a front line prospect like Liriano or Durbin, when the Twins were thinking more along the lines of Cuddyer or Lohse.

B. Alfonzo
Age: 31
Pos: 3B/2B
Bats: R
Salary: 7.5 M
Numbers: .306, 2 HR, 30 RBI, .370 OBP
Odds of a deal: I'm gonna say 15 to 1.
The Twins haven't said this guys name out loud, which I don't know how to take. T-Ry usually plays things close to the vest. But right now he's on the DL, so depending on when he comes back he might not be going anywhere.
Five years ago Alfonzo was one of the top infielders in the game - hence the 7.5 M salary.
In '99 he hit .304 with 27 homers and 108 RBI and 85 walks with the Mets. He followed that up the next year by going .324-25-94, with a .425 OBP, 40 2B, a .542 SLG... the guy was good.
He slumped badly the next year batting .243, and while he rebounded the following season to hit .308 with 16 HR, he's never gotten back to the level of a premier player.
The Giants haven't officially declared themselves as sellers yet, but they're 10 1/2 games out, and seven games under .500.
Chronic injuries have slowed Alfonzo on the bases and in the field. He has a strong arm, and the know-how to play 2nd or 3rd, but he's no Gold Glover.
One problem: The last time the Twins and Giants made a deal, the Twins got Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano for AJ Pierzynski.
Nothing against AJ, but some are calling that the greatest trade in Twins history, considering Bonser and Liriano have both been lights out in the minors.
Giants GM Brian Sabean will be leery of getting ripped off by the Twins again.

C. Boone
Age: 36
Pos: 2B
Bats: R
Salary: 9 M
Numbers: .231, 7HR, 34 RBI
Odds: 4 to 1
In 2001, Boone hit .331 with 37 homers, 141 RBIs, 118 runs, 206 hits....I could go on actually. Let's just say he had a decent season.
The following three seasons weren't quite that good, but he was still pumping out a minimum of 24 homers and 83 RBIs a year. He has also won 4 gold gloves at 2B. He was getting to be a borderline Hall of Fame player.
And now this year has been a disaster.
In 74 games, 52 K's, a .231 avg, 7 homers, a .299 OBP, a .385 SLG.....it's been bad. I won't even mention the potential role the steroid testing may or may not have played in Boone's sudden decline.
But I still think he's not a bad risk.
A change of scenery, and being thrust into the middle of a pennant race, could rejuvenate Boone at the plate.
And because the M's have already placed Boone on waivers, they can't hold out for top prospects from the Twins. After 10 days Boone is a free-agent and can sign with anyone.
The Twins can wait and try to claim him off the waiver wire, but any team with a worse record than the Twins would have first dibs.
Instead the Twins could offer Seattle a low level prospect or Luis Rivas and get Boone before he is exposed. They could even try a package deal and maybe land Eddie Guardado as well.
Either way, what's the risk here? Would the Twins be worse off by adding Boone and dropping Rivas or Abernathy?
No.
It could be a win-win situation for Boone and the Twins.

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