Sorry ladies, you'll have to look elsewhere

The Twins posted an ugly, almost embarrassing, but badly needed 1-0, 11-inning win over KC Thursday, and with that, Twinstown will be taking a few days off, as I will be getting married Saturday afternoon.

Ouch, I know. (I'm marrying the one on the left, by the way. The dude in the retro jersey is my cousin Spence, one of the groomsmen)
Many of you will be there, and I'm looking forward to seeing you.

I promise, there will be shots. But if you're showing up in hopes of scoring, lots of luck. Brienne doesn't have a lot of hot, single friends.

So wish me luck, and hopefully by Monday I'll have a sweep of the Tigers to write about.

Bad baseball teams are not fun to watch

When you see this picture, you understand the mullett.

I'm not saying Sidney Ponson hasn't pitched poorly, but the fans that seem to think calling up Matt Garza will rocket the Twins back north in the standings are delusional.
Ponson is nowhere near the biggest problem on this team right now.

It's funny, last year the Twins were a bad baseball team for most of April and May, and I was livid; spitting mad every day. I ripped them on the blog, ripped them in the paper, ripped them whenever I could.
They're playing just as bad right now as they did at any time last year, and for some reason I'm just not that worried yet.
I don't think it's because of how they came back last year, because I have no confidence at all that any team can simply count on a 71-33 stretch to save their season. Lighting doesn't strike twice (at least not like that).

I guess maybe it's because nothing that's happened is really all that unexpected.
We knew (or at least we were pretty sure) that Nick Punto had no business getting 500 ABs in the 2-hole, and he's proving it.
And we knew that there was no positional depth. If there were any injuries the Twins were going to be in trouble, and here we are.
Luis Castillo, Rondell White and Jeff Cirillo were all supposed to play big roles this year, and with them down, the lineup is a joke in the 7-through-2 spots.
Think about it. If you're a pitcher, and you get through Joe Mauer, Mike Cuddyer, Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter, you will then face some combination of Jason Kubel, Mike Redmond, Jason Tyner, Jason Bartlett, Alexi Casilla, Luis Rodriguez and Punto - IN SUCCESSION!
The only way to survive with a lineup like that is for the guys in the middle to go nuts, and that obviously hasn't happened.

Morneau is officially in a slump, and that worries me a little bit.
And Hunter is hitting the crap out of the ball, which also scares me. Because how the hell are the Twins going to replace his production if, as expected, he signs elsewhere next year?
Mauer is doing a terrific job getting on base, but I'm starting to become convinced that he should be batting either leadoff or 2nd, not 3rd.

On the other hand, maybe the reason this year's slow start isn't as troublesome as last years is the pitching. Last year, the starting pitching was godawful in the early going, and that was certainly scary.
This year everyone thought the pitching would be horrible and it's actually been pretty good.
I'm not expecting Carlos Silva and Ramon Ortiz to compete for the Cy Young this year, but I'm becoming reasonably confident that they both are back on track, and could produce a solid season. Johan will still be Johan, and I still feel good about Boof. And with Garza, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey in Triple-A, this is one area where there is some depth.
Pitching is still the most important thing, and the Twins have lots of it.

We'll just have to hope that keeps them in it while the offense tries to get healthy.

Either way, this glass needs a refill

The glass is half full:
At 11-8, the Twins, picked by many to be the 4th best team in their division, are in first place, tied for the second best record in the AL.
Ramon Ortiz has thrown four straight quality starts.
Carlos Silva has thrown four straight quality starts.
Johan Santana is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA, and April is typically his worst month.
Joe Mauer is hitting .400.
Michael Cuddyer has already proven that last year was no fluke.
With the exception of a few bad outings here and there, the bullpen has been strong.
They swept three straight from Baltimore, the team that has tied them for the second best record in the league, as well as from the Mariners in Seattle, a team that usually plays well at home.
Justin Morneau appears headed towards a 40-homer season.
The Twins have stolen a team-record 19 straight bases without getting caught.
Torii Hunter has 12 doubles and 4 steals.
The lineup will be better when everyone is healthy.

The glass is half empty:
The Twins managed only a split at home to Tampa Bay, and that was only because of a historic base running blunder by the Rays.
They looked overmatched against the one contender (the Yankees) they’ve played so far.
Jason Bartlett has been terrible in the field.
Nick Punto hasn’t hit much.
Rondell White entered the year with two major concerns: his bat and his health. And he got hurt in the first week, taking a .111 batting average to the DL with him.
Boof Bonser can’t go more than three innings without serving up a gopher ball.
Dennys Reyes gave us as many runs in the season’s first week as he did all last season.
Jesse Crain and Juan Rincon aren’t totally healthy.
Sidney Ponson got bombed by the Royals.
Luis Castillo got hurt running the bases. He didn’t trip, or catch his spike in the base or anything, he was just running.
Morneau’s slumping a little.
Mauer - zero homers.
Hunter said this year would be a ‘return to form’ for him defensively. All he’s done is confirm that he’s lost several steps in CF.

Hail to the Chief

I haven't updated in a couple days, because my internet access at home has not been working. That actually happens a lot, where you try to get on, everything is plugged in correctly and whatnot, and you get a 'cannot find server' message.
Midco sucks. Every time I see a Midco commercial on TV I dropkick a cat. It's one of my rules.
I can't even post from work, because my computer there is from like 1993. You might think that a reporter at a newspaper would be given top of the line equipment to work with, but you'd be way fuckin' wrong. My work-issue laptop uses Windows 95 and doesn't have internet access at all.
Anyway... Carlos Silva and Ramon Ortiz are now 3-for-3 in quality starts.
They have both actually been better than Johan Santana.
Even as bad as he was this spring, I didn't expect Silva to be as bad as he was for much of last year. But I certainly didn't expect him to pitch this well. But his sinker is sinking and he's throwing strikes. Good for him and good for the Twins.
If this keeps up, the Twins are going to be in very good shape.

*Jason Tyner is showing that last year may not have been a fluke, once again coming up with clutch hits, making solid contact, and using his speed to make himself useful on the bases and in the field. And he appears destined to finally hit a homer.
I wrote a column about his streak (approaching 1,100 at-bats) on Tuesday before the game, and my heart stopped in its tracks when Tyner doubled off the wall in his second at-bat (I would've had to re-write the damn thing if he'd actually gone deep, and I didn't want to do that).
Fans should keep in mind that Tyner's batting average is still not a real good indicator of his worth, because if you hit .300 with no power and no walks, you're not much more valuable than a .200 hitter who walks a little and homers once in awhile.
But he's definitely a valuable piece of the puzzle right now, if for no other reason than he can play LF or CF without screwing up, and he can put the bat on the ball.

*I didn't think the Mariners decision to send the runner home in the 9th was as bone-headed as the TV crew tried to make it.
Yes, Richie Sexson was on deck and yes, Michael Cuddyer has a great arm, but there were 2 outs and they'd already got 3 hits in the inning off Joe Nathan. What are the odds that he surrenders a fourth?
Plus Cuddyer went after the ball very nonchalantly after bobbling it, and it was reasonable to think he might get flustered and rush his throw when he saw the runner take off.
To Cuddy's credit that didn't happen, and he hit the cutoff man in the chest, and he (Luis Castillo) turned and hit Mike Redmond with a perfect strike and the out was recorded easily.
For the Twins that play should serve as a reminder that you can never ever take a play off. I say it was a less a bonehead move by the Seattle 3rd base coach and more a heads up play by Cuddyer.

*Mark Buerhle threw a no-hitter against Texas. I dont really like Buerhle, but that's pretty cool. Plus Sammy Sosa plays for Texas, and Sammy Sosa eats his own poop.

*The Wild are down 3-1 in the playoffs. They were down 3-0, before coming back to win Game 4 4-1.
At the end of the game, after the outcome was decided, Anaheim "enforcer" Brad May sucker-punched Wild defenseman Kim Johnsson, likely ending his season.
I'm not in favor of the NHL banning fighting, but the cheap shots in this league have to stop. The sport has few fans as it is, and I, as a big NHL fan, am becoming disgusted by the number of thugs like May, who have very little hockey skill, seriously injuring key players.
May was suspended 3 games, but it's not enough.
Here's my idea. Any player who takes a cheap shot (not including when two players agree to drop the gloves), has to sit for the number of games the injured player misses.
If you push a guy into the boards and he's out for the year, you're out for the year. If he misses 13 games, you miss 13 games. If he never plays again (I'm looking at you Todd Bertuzzi), you never play again.
There's a difference with fighting, where two guys agree to go hand-to-hand. But players should have the right to not engage in that kind of stuff if they dont want to.
Players like May are Neanderthals, and they ruin hockey.

Bass Ackwards (Does this team have a trainer?)

Last year, the Twins seemed pretty certain going into the season that they were going to have a lights-out pitching staff and starting rotation. They had Johan, Bradke, Carlos Silva (hadn't turned into a pumpkin yet), Kyle Lohse (ditto) and promising rookie Scott Baker (Liriano was in the bully).
The question was their offense.
Then of course, they went out and hit the ball okay and scored some runs, while every one of the starters except Santana got bombed on a nightly basis.
Eventually they moved Liriano into the ro', Radke got his shit together, and Silva was at least passable for the second half.

This year, the talk was different. No pitching, we have said. Terrible rotation, we have heard.
But the lineup and defense, this would be the strength (besides of course, the bullpen), and that would keep them afloat.

Is anyone surprised that the starting rotation has been strong, while the lineup has been sucking mufflers?
Silva and Ramon Ortiz have both been terrific in two starts, and Sidney Ponson has looked pretty good for a No. 5 as well. Boof was pitching the game of his life for 4 innings Sunday before losing it, but I still like him.
Johan is Johan.
And now the rotation is the least of the team's problems.
I give up trying to figure this game out.

And honestly, the lack of offense isn't the biggest problem, either.
It's injuries.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. You just shouldn't get hurt that much playing baseball.
But Rondell White, Jeff Cirillo, Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Lew Ford, Jason Bartlett and now Nick Punto have all had to miss at least one game with some sort of injury, and we're, what, 12 games into the season. Jesus.
And now it sounds like Punto is headed for the DL.
Josh Rabe's pathetic effort on what became an inside the park homerun for Carl Crawford highlighted the lack of OF depth (Jason Tyner pretty much has to be in LF until RonDL comes back), while losing Punto and Cirillo makes Luis Rodriguez the starter at 3rd.
I don't know what kind of roster move they make if Punto does go on the DL. I suppose they call up either Matt Moses (not ready) or Glen Williams (shitty).
Maybe the team should look into a trade or taking someone off the free-agent scrap heap.

*Joe Nathan has give up as many runs (25) in 76 non-save situations as a Twin as he has in 136 save situations. I've written before how he's a different pitcher when a save isn't on the line, and we saw it this weekend, with Nathan giving up Sunday's game, and nearly Thursday's as well.
Just think, if it wasn't for that amazing base running blunder-turned double play on Thursday, the Twins would've lost 3 of 4 at home to the D-Rays.

*Hey Gardy. Do us all a favor.
Stop hitting Mike Redmond in the 3-hole you stupid dumbass. He's a backup catcher. He has no power, and even when he gets hits (yeah, I know, he batted .341 last year) they're usually cheap dribblers through a hole. This is not a Major League 3-hitter. The 3-hole is generally for the best overall hitter in the lineup - or at least a guy who can drive in runs.
Your lineup contains Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter and Jason Kubel, and Redmond hits third.
You're embarrassing yourself every time you write out a lineup like that.
(To be honest, Joe Mauer probably shouldn't hit 3rd, either when he's in the lineup. Mauer should hit 2nd, with Morneau 3rd, Cuddyer 4, Hunter 5, Kubel 6, White 7, Punto 8 and Bartlett 9.)

Gardy is still stupid, and I'm scared of the new park

The Twins won last night, in fairly dramatic fashion, so I guess I shouldn't complain too much.
But I'm pissed off.
It was a very poorly managed game by Ron Gardenhire.

For starters, I don't understand how a guy can complain that his bullpen is overworked, and then consistently treat his starters like they're in 4th grade.
The maximum pitch count that Gardy will allow continues to decline; 90 appears to be the limit right now.
There was no reason to waste an inning of Joe Nathan Wednesday night, with Ramon Ortiz having thrown only 92 pitches through 8, and while the decision to pull Carlos Silva, who pitched brilliantly for the second straight start, is at least defensible from a strategic standpoint (the tying run was at the plate, and a lefty, and Denny Reyes did the job), but still, Silva had plenty of bullets left in the tank.
The argument that pulling a guy an inning early in April will benefit them in September is total bullshit. If he's tired, even a little, then yeah, pull him, and that will make a difference in September. But if a guy isn't tired, you're not saving anything, you're just being way overly cautious and making extra moves. How come nobody ever worries about the bullpen being overworked? It's a stupid double-standard that Gardy seems to have not even considered.

But that isn't even really what pissed me off last night, it was the decision to bring in Juan Rincon in the 8th. I know Rincon is typically Mr.8th inning, but he hasn't pitched since the opening series, thanks to first a sore neck and then a death in the family.
It was completely expected that he'd be rusty and possibly ineffective, but Gardy went ahead and brought him into a close ball game. If it was 5-0 or 6-0 it would've been a great time to go to Rincon. But when one run can decide a game, go to a guy (Pat Neshek) who's fresh and ready to go.
Almost on cue, Rincon served up a homer, a hit and a walk (though the ball 4 pitch to Dioner Navarro should've been strike 3).

This would've seemed like a good time to go to Neshek, since it was clear that Rincon was off, but Gardy still waited for him to give up the lead (and cost Silva a well-deserved win) before making the move.
And then, on cue, Neshek fanned the next two hitters effortlessly to get out of the inning.

Still Gardy wasn't done, choosing not to leave Neshek in, and bringing in Nathan.
Anyone who's read this blog more than a couple times knows my feelings on using Joe in a non-save situation. He almost always blows up. He's simply not a good pitcher unless he's protecting a lead.
On cue, he gives up a single and double, only to be miraculously bailed out by what is easily the worst and most bizarre baserunning I've ever seen at the Major League level.
The Twins won in the bottom of the 9th on another oppo dong from Justin Morneau, and while that was great, all it did for me was bail out Gardy, and overshadow the fact that he spent the whole night making stupid decisions.

*Again, kudos to Silva, who was solid. I actually thought he was better in Chicago, when his sinker was moving all over the place, but against the D-Rays he was effective in part because of a surprisingly nasty changeup. Has the Silva of old returned? I wouldn't go that far yet, but I think I actually think he's more likely to be for real than Ortiz.

*New stadium designs are out. If you haven't seen them go to twinsbaseball.com and prepare to be bombarded.
I was a little disappointed, because the team tried to make a big unveiling about it, but they're the same damn pictures we've been looking at for a few years.
Having said that, the Twins seem to know what they want to do here. The fact that the stadium seemed like little more than a pipe dream for so long means they're not going to screw it up. I know how much time they've spend surveying and researching, and I'm pretty confident that the new stadium will immediately rank among the best in baseball.
I like the idea of giving it some sort of unique characteristic, i.e. - the fountains in KC, the Riverboat in Cincy, the rocks in Anaheim. I've heard talk of planting a bunch of indigenous trees inside the park, and I think that could potentially be really cool so long as it doesn't interfere with sightlines.
My personal idea was a lake (10,000 lakes ballpark?), which could actually be stocked with fish, and then kids (and only kids) could fish during the game. But I realize that might be logistically difficult.

My one major fear of the new park is the potential corporateization of the Twins.
For as much abuse as the Dome takes, there's one thing that makes it great: the fact that you have to want to be there.
You know that whether its a crowd of 15,000 or 50,000 - the people there are Twins fans. It's not a hangout, or a chic place to be seen, which actually creates a great atmosphere. It weeds out the D-bags. That's why the place can get so loud. It's full of baseball fans, not suits and stiffs who bought corporate season ticket packages.
You can walk right up to the Dome most nights, and buy seats that are pretty close to the action for a decent price.
I fear, in fact I'm almost sure, that won't be the case for at least the first 10 years of the new ballpark.
Am I, a loyal fan who attends up to 8-10 games a year in the Dome, going to pay $25 to sit in the nosebleeds while some boner-nose big whig who wouldn't know a triple play from a triple axle sits in the box seats at $60 a pop (with a group of 10 other self-important white collar pricks and their prozac wives in tow)?
My guess is the answer is yes.

Ortiz is the new Santana

Yep, soccer is gay (I'm tired of running the same old Twins pics, and I never get tired of making fun of futbol).

Anyway, Ramon Ortiz, who one could make a strong argument for having been the worst pitcher in the National League last year, mowed through the Yanks to allow the Twins to salvage one game against the team that routinely turns them into little pinstriped bitches.
Ortiz has now pitched 15 innings and allowed three runs. And this was against a really good lineup that had put up an 18-spot in the first two games of the series.
It's just two starts, but it's definitely cause for optimism.

*Jason Bartlett got benched for Alexi Casilla. I like it. Sends a message.
*Though he had two hits, it's pretty embarrassing that the Twins DH was Luis Rodriguez.
*Another steal for Luis Castillo.
*Another hit for Jason Kubel, and no major adventures in LF.
*Ortiz threw only 92 pitches through 8, and with a 5-1 lead it was a non-save situation for Joe Nathan. Why couldn't Gardy let Ortiz finish? Is their some kind of clause in Gardy's contract that he's not allowed to let any starter throw a complete game?
And here's a better question - If Santana has a no-hitter through 8 and he's thrown 120 pitches...what will he do?

*After the game the Twins sent down collecting-dust-and-slivers catcher Chris Heintz and called up lefty Glen Perkins. The Twins said in spring training Perkins would not be used as a reliever, but with Jesse Crain sore and Juan Rincon dealing with personal stuff (pregnant wife, dead mom-in-law), they've apparently already bagged that.
Had Mike Venafro (he of the much-hyped 10 scoreless innings in spring training), not been lit up for five runs in his first Triple-A relief outing, it's likely that Perk would still be in the Rochester 'ro, and Venafro would've gotten the call.

Bigger problems than this guy

That's Ponson - sans mullet.
Sir Sid gave up 8 runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings, and I actually don't think he pitched too bad.
Jason Kubel turned a routine fly into a double, and, against the most powerful lineup in the game, most of the hits Sid gave up were bleeders and bloopers. The homer to A-Rod wasn't, but why the hell was he still in the game to face the hottest hitter in the game at that point?
Carlos Silva pitched well in his debut, too, so all of a sudden the rotation doesn't seem like a major issue.
That's because the lineup isn't scoring any runs, Jason Bartlett can't catch the ball, and RonDL White and Jeff Cirillo are on the disabled list.
I really wanted to give RonDL a second chance after he had a strong finish to last year, but seriously, goddamit.
The guy pulled his hamstring doing a skip out of the dugout. I don't care if it was 50-below, you're a goddamn pussy if you pull a muscle skipping (actually you might be a pussy just for skipping at all).
As for Cirillo, he figured to be the only reliable bench player the Twins could rely on, but he's bound for knee surgery and will be out at least a month.
Josh Rabe, Jason Tyner and Mike Redmond will now get more ABs, and none of those guys deserve regular playing time at the ML level.
Alexi Casilla was called up to replace Cirillo, and he'll at least give the team some speed and maybe even a kick in the ass to Bartlett, who looks nothing like the confident player who batted .309 and was stellar in the field last season.

3-0 with a bullet

The Twins opening 3-game series couldn't have gone much better.
Three quality starts from their supposedly second-rate starting rotation, some pretty good defense and enough big hits to make us happy.
No reason to start printing playoff tickets, but a great start nonetheless.
A few observations:
*Luis Castillo hasn't hit a ball hard yet, but he's 7 for 14 with two steals. I'm starting to get over the fact that Castillo constantly 'looks' like he's a tin-man. He's a catalyst. I really hope he stays healthy, and geez, if he does, maybe they should rethink the plan of ditching him for Alexi Casilla next year.
*Nick Punto is the best defensive 3B the Twins have had since Gary Gaetti. He continues to make some really, really good plays. Eric Chavez of Oakland has a stranglehold on the AL Gold Glove at 3B, and he's very deserving. But I think Punto may be just as good.
*Torii Hunter is not off to a good start in convincing me that he's back to his old self in CF. He's getting late jumps and looks slow moving laterally and coming in. He still seems to go back pretty well, but the ball he dropped in the 8th Wednesday night should've been caught. Should've been an error.
*Nice debut for Ramon Ortiz. Too many pitches up in the strike zone, and the velocity was less than I was expecting. But I'm not going to argue with 2 runs over 7. I'll reiterate my prediction for Ortiz this year: 13-11, 4.59.
*Another strong outing from Boof. There's a chance that the Twins underestimated Boof the last couple years. They've never pegged him as more than a 4th starter, which makes sense because his stuff isn't overwhelmingly great. But he's got that moxie you look for, and he seems to be getting more and more comfortable. I think he's got a shot to be the best No. 2 starter in the AL Central.

A couple other notes going into an off-day.
*Joe Nathan was on-call from the hospital on Wednesday as his wife Lisa was in labor. Since the Twins had a big lead, he didn't come to the park until the 9th, arriving in street clothes just in time to see Matt Guerrier wrap up the win. The Nathan's who already have a son, Cole, welcomed a daughter, Riley, into their family at 8:34.
*Johan Santana requested an extra day of rest, so instead of using Thursday's day off to skip their 5th starter, the Twins will send Carlos Silva and Sidney Ponson to the hill the first two games in Chicago. Gulp.
*Joe Mauer is still growing. He was 6-4 when he was drafted, the Twins list him at 6-5, and he says he's now up to about 6-6. He admits that it's a concern - if he keeps growing it will be difficult for him to catch. He's not the only one. Baltimore's game 2 starter, Daniel Cabrera, has gone from 6-7 to 6-9 over the last two seasons.
*Mike Venafro, the lefty reliever who posted a 0.00 ERA in spring training but was still sent down, decided to accept his demotion to Triple-A Rochester, rather than become a free-agent. Personally I think that was a mistake on his part, as I can't imagine he wouldn't have found a job. But I'm glad he did it. He'll have a chance to help the Twins this year. They're damn lucky he's still their property.
*If you're one of those who was truly worked up about the Twins losing JD Durbin by exposing him to waivers, this should make you feel better.
In his first appearance with the Diamondbacks, he got tagged for 7 runs in 2/3 of an inning, and the Diamondbacks immediately designated him for assignment. To give you an idea of how bad it is for the Real Deal at this point, he said he hopes no one claims him, so he can go to the minors.
"I just don't feel comfortable in the majors right now," he said.
Right.

Opening Day Extravaganza...Hope you're hungry

Opening Day of the Major League Baseball season is, without doubt, my favorite day of the year.
Out of the 365 days, there isn't a single one I look forward to with as much excitement, anticipation and confidence.
Confidence, because, unlike any other day that you could be someone's favorite (Christmas, Birthday, St. Patty's Day, etc.), you know you're looking forward to more than just one day. A whole season. Even if things go bad for your team, you've got six whole months with a game almost every day.
That's why baseball is great. Football only plays once a week, and the rest of the time you sit around being pissed about the last one. Football is stupid (I actually love football, too, I'm just saying).
Unfortunately this year's holiday excitement has been tempered somewhat by the death of the great Herb Carneal. For the third year in a row, the Twins enter a season with heavy hearts after the death of an icon.

But this won't temper my enthusiasm. So for Opening Day, I offer you, the Twinstown reader, more material than you could possibly want or need. Yes, I could and should have gotten to most of this earlier, but I've been busy taking the Twins to the World Series in MLB The Show for Playstation 2. I'll try to break up most of this stuff, so you can take in a little, do some work, come back later, and so on.
(PS - If you don't usually pick up hard newspaper copies, I'd recommend doing so for today's Argus and the Star Tribune's special baseball section. We did our own baseball preview at the Argus (we usually just assemble a bunch of crap from the wire), with myself and copy editor Mike Klinski working pretty hard to give fans something to save for their scrapbooks. The Strib's baseball special section is borderline amazing - that's what a major daily paper can and should (but doesn't always) do.)

Happy Opening Day. 162 games to go.


Herb Carneal dead at 83.
There are a few names who are synonymous with Twins baseball.
Puckett, Killebrew, Hrbek and Carew are obvious. And even though Carneal was just a broadcaster, he's right there with them on the Twins Mt. Rushmore.
Carneal was with the Twins for every year except their first, bringing an old-fashioned professionalism to the job that has since disappeared.
Patrick Reusse of the Star Tribune writes,
"What Herb Carneal did was describe precisely what was occurring in front of him and allow us to react. When you consider hysterical play-by-play is now often the norm, Herbie deserves lasting admiration for the trust he placed in all of us."
In his later days Herb's eyesight and accuracy understandably deteriorated, but he remained the most popular of the various voices to bring fans Twins games because of that voice - smooth as caramel, that seemed to bring a poignancy, a romanticism, to something as ultimately insignificant as a baseball game.
When the radio was on, and Carneal's sweet voice was bringing you the action, all was right with the world, no matter where you were or what you were doing.
Spending a late night in the office working overtime, burning in the hot sun of a Saturday afternoon, killing a two-hour drive down the highway or burying your head under the hood of your car on a Sunday in the garage - all those chores had the chance to become memorable days with Herbie at the mike.
You know how the Dome isn't the same without Bob Casey? The radio ain't gonna be the same without Herb Carneal.


Detroit Tigers Preview
What the Tigers did last year was not a fluke. I really liked them going into the year, but I sure didn't think a World Series was in the cards. The big reason they made it that far is that their best players, who all had injury histories, stayed healthy.
If that happens again, the Tigers will be very hard to beat. They're very deep. Losing Kenny Rogers for at least the first three months of the season hurts them early, but they have alternatives, and at 42, who knows how much the Gambler had left anyway.
Probable Starting Lineup:
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
DH Gary Sheffield
RF Magglio Ordonez
SS Carlos Guillen
C Ivan Rodriguez
LF Craig Monroe
1B Sean Casey
3B Brandon Inge
Starting Rotation:
RH Jeremy Bonderman
RH Justin Verlander
LH Nate Robertson
LH Mike Maroth
RH Chad Durbin
Closer: Todd Jones

The rotation is very solid on paper, but there are questions.
Will Bonderman ever completely put it together and become the ace he's obviously capable of being? Or will he remain a head-case whose ERA can't get under 4?
Will Verlander suffer the sophomore slump that often hits pitchers who faced a large rookie workload?
How dependable will Robertson and Maroth be? Can Durbin (or rookie Zach Miner) adequately replace Rogers?
The lineup has only one question. Health.
1-9, the Tigers are loaded. It's a flat out great lineup.
But Sheffield, Ordonez, Guillen and even I-Rod are injury-prone, especially at an advanced age.
Last year the Tigers stayed healthy. Can they get lucky two years in a row?
As if all this wasn't enough, the Tigers bullpen and bench are also very good. Jones is on borrowed time as the closer, with Joel Zumaya ready to replace him and dominate.

The good: Loaded lineup, solid rotation, great bullpen, good bench.
The bad: Loss of Rogers hurts them more than you might think, middle of their lineup full of injury risks.
Best-case scenario: Everyone stays healthy, Rogers comes back strong in July, Bonderman contends for Cy Young. Tigers get back to the Series.
Worst-case scenario: Rotation is solid but misses Rogers, Jones is finished and bullpen depth is hurt when Zumaya takes over as closer. Ordonez, Guillen and Sheffield all go on the DL. Tigers finish 4th behind Twins, Tribe and Sox.
Detroit Tigers
Manager: Jim Leyland
Offense: A
Defense: A
Starting Pitching: B-
Bullpen: B+
Bench: B+ Prediction: 91-71, 2nd in AL Central


Twins 2007 Preview
I picked the Twins to win it last year, when a lot of people weren't. I've realized over the years that many of the TV and magazine people that pick this stuff give the teams they don't often cover only a cursory look. It seemed obvious to me that the Twins would be a much improved team last year, largely because of how young most of their key players were, especially on offense. It's like these people pick all the same old teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, etc, etc), look for one cute little sleeper (Royals in '04, Twins in '05, Blue Jays in '06, Indians this year) and call it good.
I'm picking the Twins again this year, but it's tough. The Tigers are very good, and the Twins rotation obviously looks iffy.
I guess when push comes to shove it comes down to a couple things.
*I prefer Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Hunter and Kubel to Sheffield, Ordonez, Guillen, Pudge, Monroe.
*I think the Tigers rotation, while deeper than the Twins', is overrated, and will miss Kenny Rogers.
*I don't think they'll stay as injury free as they did last year.
Okay, that's three things.

Twins 2007 Opening Day Roster Catchers:
Joe Mauer
He had a tough spring, and remember, last year's .347 average was largely thanks to an insane stretch in June-July when he hit almost .500 for month. Take away that stretch and he was right around .300. But he should get better, and hit for more power. Defensively he's very sharp.
Projection: .319-19-98
Mike Redmond
A terrific backup catcher and a clubhouse leader, he's like an extra coach. I hate that he bats third when he starts, but he's a valuable player who the Twins wisely signed to an extension.
Projection: .306-1-21
Chris Heintz
This three catcher thing with Gardy is getting so old I don't have the energy to re-hash it. This time at least, there's really no obviously better choice than Heintz, who is a fine backup. At least now there's the option of pinch hitting for Redmond. It might get Redmond into the lineup more, which isn't a bad thing.
Projection: .244-1-11
Infielders
Justin Morneau
The MVP finished at .321 even though he was at .236 on June 7. He's a left-handed Kirby Puckett, only with better discipline. Improving defensively.
Projection: .323-32-139
Luis Castillo
A dynamic player at the top of the order and in the field. Will he stay healthy?
Projection: .297-2-33
Nick Punto
Not convinced yet that last year was for real, especially since he faded in September. He's a valuable player, but don't be surprised if he ends up spelling at SS and 2B while Jeff Cirillo sees plenty of ABs.
Projection: .271-2-32
Jason Bartlett
Should eventually be a top of the order hitter. Will only get better offensively, and he was a lot better than many (including me) gave him credit for in the field.
Projection: .291-7-59
Jeff Cirillo
He kills lefties, and Gardy will love him (he's a veteran, he's versatile, etc, etc). If he becomes the everyday 3B his play will suffer, as he's a part-time player at this stage in his career.
Projection: .295-5-33
Luis Rodriguez
Had a great spring just as the team was looking to get rid of him. He's got potential to be a very sound role player in this league.
Projection: .255-4-26
Outfielders
Torii Hunter
I'm interested to see how he is defensively, because that was the worst part of his game last year. He's one of my all-time favorite players, and I really hope this isn't his last year as a Twin.
Projection: .273-28-92
Rondell White
If healthy, he'll be the player everyone thought we were getting last year (and that we finally saw in the second half). He'll open as the regular LF, but Jason Kubel looks healthy, so hopefully he'll gradually spend more time as a DH.
Projection: .283-14-69
Michael Cuddyer
It all finally came together last year, as Cuddyer had 109 RBI even after spending most of April on the bench. I don't believe (as many apparently do), that last year was his career year.
Projection: .292-31-115
Jason Kubel
He's going to have a breakout year. I'm so convinced of it I just keep saying it to myself over and over. He got in shape, and has looked good in the field. Could have a Shane Mack-like impact on this team.
Projection: .293-18-79
Jason Tyner
As much as I've hated on Lew Ford the last few years, I'm not convinced Tyner is an improvement as a 4th OF. I just don't think he can do what he did last year over the long haul. But he can be a good pinch-hitter, and as I've said before, he's the kind of guy that just gives you a good feeling when he steps into the box (Jeff Reboulet was the same way. It seemed like he ALWAYS got a hit, even if he was batting .240).
Projection: .267-0-12
Lew Ford
I'm going to assume he'll eventually return from the DL. Hopefully he'll be better than he was last year.
Projection: .250-2-12
Pitchers
Johan Santana
The best. He's almost as good as two solid starters.
Projection: 21-6, 2.48
Boof
From now on, I'm giving Boof the one-name Ichiro treatment. He's been really, really impressive. Fast becoming one of my favorite players. Pitches with extreme confidence.
Projection: 15-10, 3.88
Ramon Ortiz
Had a pretty good spring. I wouldn't underestimate what he could do under Rick Anderson, who's a far superior pitching coach to whoever the Nationals had.
Projection: 13-11, 4.59
Sidney Ponson
Had a decent spring, and could be successful with a good sinker. How good will he have to be to hang on to his spot in the rotation all year, with all those good arms in Rochester? Projection: 8-8, 4.97
Carlos Silva
The spring was going so bad there was talk he'd go to Triple-A, and then he pitched 5 flawless innings in his last spring start. Did he finally get the sinker back?
Projection: 7-10, 5.11
Matt Garza
One way or another, he'll find his way up here at some point.
Projection: 4-4, 4.26
Matt Guerrier
Very good for the role the Twins have created for him. Had a good spring.
Projection: 3.48
Jesse Crain
Inconsistent last year, but the Twins (and many other teams) still love his arm and makeup. If he struggles again, the Twins may finally consider dealing him.
Projection: 3.12
Juan Rincon
Supremely aggressive and confident set-up guy. Nasty stuff.
Projection: 2.45
Dennys Reyes
His ERA was 0.89 last year. He gave up 5 runs in 50 innings. I doubt he'll repeat that. But he'll still be excellent in his role.
Projection: 2.67
Pat Neshek
Will be hit harder as hitters get more looks at his funky delivery. Gardy has to limit his appearances against lefties.
Projection: 3.42
Joe Nathan
The best. Usually has one little three or four day slump where he struggles with command, otherwise he's unhittable.
Projection: 1.48, 47 saves

The good: Deadly and young heart of the order should only keep improving. There's potential for some strong table-setters in front of them as well. Best bullpen in baseball. Plenty of solid options ready in Triple-A if rotation falters.
The bad: Rotation is not as bad as some are making it sound, but it is a definite question. 9-1-2 hitters can get on base but offer very little extra-base power.
Best-case scenario: The Twins young hitters continue to blossom, while White and Punto also have strong seasons. Bullpen remains lights-out, and rotation is surprisingly strong. Twins go the Series.
Worst-case scenario: Punto proves last year was a fluke, White looks finished, while Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer can't quite repeat last year's big numbers. Boof has some sophomore struggles, while 3-4-5 starters are a disaster. Twins are a distant 4th and have to scrape to get to .500.
Minnesota Twins
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
Offense: B+
Defense: A
Starting Pitching: C+
Bullpen: A
Bench: B-
Prediction: 93-69, 1st in AL Central





Playstation Twins go 125-37.
Yes, the game came out in late February and I already played a whole season. Most of the games I'd play the first two and last two innings, and skip the middle, otherwise yeah, it'd take forever.
Just for fun, here are some of the numbers my video game Twins put up.
Mauer .321-30-97
Morneau .340-51-131 (won the Triple Crown and MVP)
Cuddyer .336-37-118
Hunter .289-31-109
White .288-30-83
Kubel .338-29-78
Castillo .301-3-52
Punto .287-9-49
Bartlett .277-5-54
Cirillo .292-9-40
Santana 25-1, 0.79 (missed 7 starts on DL, Cy Young anyway)
Boof 20-4, 2.69
Silva 15-6 3.47
Ortiz 18-6 3.87
Ponson 7-3 3.49 (missed second half on DL)
Garza 4-2 3.86
Nathan 0.89, 62 saves

Swept the A's in three straight in the division series. Lost game 1 of the ALCS to the Yankees thanks to a huge error by Bartlett, but stormed back to sweep the next four. Swept the Padres in the Series.
Cool, huh.

Feel free to add any of your own predictions or projections, assuming you eventually made it this far. And if you did, and you're still not appropriately pumped for the season, I'll leave you with this. It's a Twinstown entry from the greatest Twins game I've ever attended (and I was at Game 1 of the '87 series).
Hopefully it will remind you how great baseball can be.

History...Real Time (October 1, 2006).
I was there Sunday.
There for one of the greatest days in the history of the Minnesota Twins.
I bought $6 upper deck tickets for me and my fiancee about two weeks ago, assuming the game probably wouldn't mean much.
I just wanted to go to one more game as a fan.
Just before the game started, the Twins honored Brad Radke with an on-field ceremony in which his teammates presented him with a jetski as a retirement present.
At the time I thought to myself, 'Well if nothing else I'm glad I was here for that.'
But that was nothing.
Three batters into the game the Twins trailed 1-0 with Carlos Silva on the mound. The Tigers were opening up a lead on the Royals. A win for Detroit would give them the division and send the Twins to New York to face the Yankees.
The Tigers were at home, and had already lost twice to a Royals team that they had beaten 15 of 16 times before this weekend.
And they built their lead to 6-0 in the third inning.
Yankee stadium, here we come.
But then...
Joe Mauer laced a double down the line, clinching the AL batting title and starting a Twins rally that would give them the lead. I told my fiancee before the inning that Torii Hunter would homer and he did, hitting a towering fly to left-center, his 31st of the year, and the hit that sealed the win - thanks to a fine outing from Silva and more expert work from the bullpen.
By the time the Twins had pushed their lead to 5-1, the 45,182 fans in attendance were no longer watching the field. They were watching the tiny video boards in opposite corners of the dome that were updating the Royals-Tigers game.
6-0 Detroit becomes 6-2, and the crowd roars. 6-4, the crowd is becoming a distraction to the players.
Detroit scores, 7-4, fans boo.
And then...
7-6, and 'Let's go Ro-yals' echoes through the dome.
7-7!
8-7 KC! The 100 loss Royals have come back from down 6-0 in Detroit against ace Jeremy Bonderman.
Bottom 8, Matt Stairs homers, and the Tigers have tied it at 8. Fans boo.
And then...
Joe Nathan closes out the Twins win, and nobody leaves. The Tigers-Royals game is up on the jumbotron, and the Tigers have the bases loaded with one out in the bottom of the 11th. Brandon Inge launches a ball deep to LF, looking like a walk-off grand slam, but it hooks fould. The dome crowd lets out a huge sigh.
Two pitches later, Joe Nelson, the Royals no-name rookie closer, fans Inge on a changeup that would make Johan proud. Inge crumbles to his knees in disbelief. Curtis Granderson is the Tigers last chance. The Royals summon lefty Jimmy Gobble, and Gobble fans Granderson looking. The dome is euphoric. The Twins players are in the dugout, drinking beer, jumping and screaming and waving towels and acting as giddy as the fans.
It's an amazingly surreal scene. The Twins players and their fans, almost working in unsion, watching the game together, egging each other on. They play 'Sweet Caroline' over the PA between innings, and the entire Twins bench is arm in arm, singing along with the fans.
It's a scene that I can't imagine taking place at any other Pro stadium anywhere in the world.
Top 12, Detroit summons Kenny Rogers from the pen, and the Royals knock him around for two runs. Nick Punto, Luis Rodriguez and Torii Hunter are going absolutely bonkers (they keep showing them on the Tron). Hunter grabs a mike, waves to the fans and screams: "Let's go Ro-yals". The place goes nuts. Of the 45,000 that were here, probably 35,000 remain, and the game's been over for half an hour.
Bottom 12, and Gobble sets the Tigers down almost effortlessly.
Finally...
The Twins players storm onto the field for the second time in a week, mobbing each other at the mound. They then take a victory lap around the field, high fiving fans in the front row. Joe Nathan does the Lambeau Leap into the left field corner. The players are throwing whatever they can, balls, shirts, hats and towels into the crowd.
Over the PA comes the official declaration: "Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2006 American League Central Division Champion Minnesota Twins!"
Gardy and Hunter both grab the mike and say a few words, but it's completely inaudible. The place is just too damn loud.
I look at the banner in right-field that reads AL Central Champs: 2002, 2003, 2004 and think how great it will look to have 2006 on there, too.
I look just a few feet to the left of that and see a big smiling Kirby Puckett, and wonder if he had a hand in the miracle that took place today in Minneapolis and Detroit.
There are 162 games and approximately 180 days in the Major League season, and the Twins were never once in sole possession of first place until after they were done playing. They caught the uncatchable Tigers on the final day.
Even after the fans left the dome, nobody wanted to go home. The streets of Minneapolis were filled with horn-honking cars, and people racing along the sidewalks, high fiving everyone in sight, high fiving people in moving cars.
As of right now, there's no better baseball town in America than Minneapolis.
There have been several moments in recent Twins history that I watched on TV while thinking to myself, 'Man I should've been there for that.'
But this is a day that will live forever, and I'll never forget it.
I was there.
And it was beautiful.

Twins Notes PLUS 2007 AL Central Preview - ChiSox Edition

That's Jermaine Dye in the picture.
Apparently, one time he shot a deer.

Opening Day is now three days away, and I admit, this blog has been ill-prepared for Opening Day so far.
Still have to do the Sox, the Twins, the Tigers...and of course bitch about Ron Gardenhire. This is all complicated by the fact that I have to do a story about the SD HS Bball Player of the Year (for the four of you who care, he averages 31 ppg and his initials are Louie Krogman), and I have to do a story about how the Stampede think they're going to win the Clark Cup.
They're not.
(Hartigan, that was a test to see if you're paying attention.)

The Twins have swallowed very hard and decided to keep Carlos Silva as their 5th starter, while sending Matt Garza to Triple-A.
At this point the move isn't really a major deal. The big deal was picking up Silva's $4.35 million option in November. That led to this.
Honestly, Garza could use more starts in AAA, especially since he'd be skipped a couple times in April if he was with the Twins. As Terry Ryan said, "This isn't about Silva. It's about Garza."
But that's not really the issue.

What bothers me is the Twins essentially lied to Garza, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins when they told them they were all in competition for a spot.
Because all four of them pitched better than Silva, and all of them except for Baker pitched better than Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz. Yet back to Rochester they go.
If you're not going to give the kids a shot, don't tell them the jobs are open in the first place.
Funny, the Twins believe they can contend for the AL Central, which figures to be the toughest division in baseball, and their own Triple-A team might have a deeper and better starting rotation.
If there's a silver lining here, it's that all indications are that Silva will be on a short leash. With all that talent in Rochester, Ortiz and Ponson probably will too. But if the Twins were to end up ditching all three of them, they'll have wasted $9 million in salary, which is just stupid for a small-market team.
Yes, the Twins could survive all this and still make the playoffs. But why make themselves go through with it?

Okay, on to the Pale Hose.
I think the White Sox are on the way down.
They're still a good team, and are still capable of winning the AL Central. But they're getting older, and Ozzie Guillen has been talking crazy all spring.
He wants to emulate the Twins, he says, and play small ball.
I get that, because that's what they did in 2005 (sort of), and it got them a World Series championship.
But I don't know that small ball is really what propelled the Twins and Tigers into the playoffs last year, and I don't think the Sox are necessarily built for that this year.
I've got serious questions about their rotation, and the bullpen is inferior to the Twins' and Tigers'. What's worse if you're a White Sox fan is that key players such as Dye, Mark Buehrle and Joe Crede are almost certainly in their last year with the team, so this is probably it for a couple years.
Probable Starting Lineup:
LF Scott Podsednik
CF Darin Erstad
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
3B Joe Crede
C AJ Pierzynski
2B Tadahito Iguchi
SS Juan Uribe
Starting Rotation:
LH Mark Buehrle
RH Jon Garland
RH Jose Contreras
RH Javier Vazquez
RH John Danks
Closer: Bobby Jenks

You'd be hard pressed to find two guys at the top of any order who will get on base less than Podsednik and Erstad. They both run well, but are actually just not very good offensive players.
3-6 is a murderers row, no question, but no way Dye repeats last year's numbers, while Thome, at 36, is always a threat to have injuries. Iguchi would be batting in front of them if Ozzie knew how to make a lineup, while Uribe finished last in all of baseball in OBP. He's terrible.

The Sox hit 236 homers last year, improved their OBP from .322 in their title year to .342, and led the league in batting avg. with runners in scoring position.
Yet Guillen says: "We hit too many home runs (last year). Our situational hitting was horrible. This year we're going back to small ball."
Good luck with that Ozzie. This is a prime example of a manager using his own poor memory to make decisions, rather than looking at those annoying things smart people call statistics (so that's the reason Ozzie and Gardy get along so well).

Buehrle had a terrible season last year, which made it all the more surprising to me that they traded their best starter, Freddy Garcia.
Garland is a solid No.2, but I don't think he's any better than Boof Bonser. Their 3-5 guys don't scare me, either.
Jenks has had a terrible spring, but he had a terrible spring last year, too, and still ended up with 41 saves. The rest of their pen is decent, led by Matt Thornton and Mike MacDougal.

The good: Except Podsednik, every hitter in their lineup could hit 20 homers in a full season, with their 3-4-5 guys all capable of 40-45. Rotation is full of innings-eaters. Jenks appears to be a top-tier closer. A nice bench.
The bad: Their 9-1-2 hitters could all post sub-.300 OBPs. That really sucks. If Buehrle is the same pitcher he was last year, they'll really regret trading Garcia.
Best-case scenario: Podsednik and Erstad find their stroke, and get on base for the big boys, who stay healthy and rip another 230 homers. Buehrle returns to ace status, while Garland, Contreras and Vazquez all throw 200 solid innings. Sox win the pennant.
Worst-case scenario: Ozzie's small-ball craziness is a poor fit for a team dominated by sluggers. Erstad is released by June, while Thome and Dye can't quite repeat last year's heroics. All of the starters pitch like 4's, and the pen is shaky. Sox struggle to reach .500.
Chicago White Sox
Manager: Ozzie Guillen
Offense: B
Defense: B
Starting Pitching: C
Bullpen: B
Bench: B
Prediction: 86-76, 3rd in AL Central.

Darrell Evans sucks and more rotation stuff

UPDATE: The Twins have cut Mike Venafro, despite the fact that he pitched 10 scoreless innings this spring, and despite the fact that competent lefties are somewhat scarce. Venafro could easily catch on somewhere else (he has a 4.09 ERA in 307 career major league games), but said he will consider reporting to Rochester. If that happens the Twins are too lucky for their own good.
And worse, just when I began to credit Gardy for seeing the light, the Strib reports that it looks like he's had a change of heart, and that Carlos Silva will in fact get the last spot in the rotation, with Matt Garza going back to Triple-A.
Awesome.

FSN replayed Game 5 of the 1987 ALCS Monday night as part of their Twins Classics series.
This was the most enjoyable replay of a 'classic' game I've ever watched, mostly because I didn't remember any of it.
I was 7 years old in 1987, and while I know I watched every game of that year's playoffs, the only ones I really remember were Games 1 (which I attended in person), 2, 5, 6 and 7 of the World Series (I remember that worthless buffoon, Tom Lawless, hitting that big 3-run homer in Game 5. Fuck him, by the way. I hope he's dead. (I felt bad for writing that, so I checked. He's not dead. So double-fuck him).

And even though I didn't remember that particular game itself, watching it brought back a lot of memories of players I loved, players who were responsible for me falling in love with baseball.

Some other observations from a game that happened 20 years ago. Really.

*Bert Blyleven's curveball was unbelievable. Wow. Better than Kerry Wood, better than Darryl Kile, better than Tom Gordon. WOOOOOSHHH!
*Kirby swung at everything. EVERYTHING. He's chasing shit in the dirt and over his head, then he gets rung up on a pitch on the corner at the belt. Geez.
*Randy Bush comes up in a big spot in the 8th and lifts a sac fly to center for a big insurance run. I don't think there would be a better way to epitomize Randy Bush's underrated Twins career than that AB.
* No knock on the G-Man (or the Rat, if you prefer), but Tom Brunansky should've got the ALCS MVP.
* Dan Schatzeder. Terrible in regular season, lights out in playoffs as the only lefty out of the pen. Ironically, the same thing happened in '91, when a largely useless David West turned nasty against Toronto in the ALCS.
*Tom Kelly was only 37. Darrell Evans was 40, and while he hit 34 bombs that year (amazing for a 40-year old), he was a paraplegic in the field and on the bases, a major factor in the series.
*Stirrups are ugly.
* Tony Kubek was 1.9 million times better as a color man than Tim McCarver.
* Jeff Reardon. Not that good, really. He had a 4.48 ERA in '87. That's about three runs higher than our man Joe Nathan.
*Don Baylor, Gaetti, Bush, Al Newman, Frank Viola, Kirk Gibson, Alan Trammell, Chet Lemon, Matt Nokes. All played in this game, all went on to coach or manage at some level after their playing days. There's probably some more I'm not aware of.

Turning our attention to the modern-day Twins:
*Turns out Carlos Silva does, in fact, have the ability to refuse a demotion to Triple-A. But if he did that, he would become a free-agent, and sacrifice the $4.5 million the Twins owe him for this year, so doubt that'll happen.
Unless Silva throws 7 shutout innings in his next start, my money's on Matt Garza for the final spot in the rotation. If Garza does get that last spot, I bet Silva gets sent to Triple-A (with Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire quietly hoping that he's dumb enough to refuse the assignment, getting them off the hook for the 4 and a half mil).

*Sidney Ponson threw six shutout innings with no walks Monday afternoon. His sinker is working. Maybe he'll turn out okay.

*JD Durbin relieved Ponson and was terrible. There's no way he makes the team, even if the Twins keep 12 pitchers. That means he'll have to clear waivers for the Twins to send him to Triple-A. I doubt that'll happen - he'll get claimed - but I don't think losing Durbin is the end of the world. He's got a nice arm, but I don't think he's a future All-Star.
Everyone kicked and screamed when Michael Ryan and Mike Restovich ran out of options and were claimed off waivers, and they are both still in the minors.

*Mike Venafro pitched another scoreless inning, making it 10 this spring. If the Twins do decide to keep 12 pitchers, I hope he's one of them.

Gardy catches the clue train?

The Twins made a series of controversial moves this off-season, all of which involved their starting rotation.
While Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, and possibly Scott Baker, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey all seemed like solid candidates to fill out the rotation, which lost Brad Radke to retirement and Francisco Liriano to injury, it was understandable that the Twins would want to bring in a veteran or two, so that the Twins weren't literally sending out 4 rookies to try to win a pennant.

Before that happened, though, the Twins picked up a $4 million option on RH Carlos Silva, whose three seasons in the Twins rotation had gone good, great and terrible.

Considering the Royals gave Gil Meche, a pitcher with lesser career credentials than Silva, a 5 year, $55 million deal, it sort of made sense.

Then came the additions of Sidney Ponson ($1 million) and Ramon Ortiz ($3 million).
Silva, Ponson and Ortiz were all coming off terrible, and I mean terrible, 2006 seasons, and now Ron Gardenhire was guaranteeing them all a spot in the rotation, leaving only one opening for the crew of youngsters (never mind the fact that if anyone deserved to be guaranteed a spot it was Bonser, who pitched like a No. 2 for the last two month).
And while Boof has locked up that lost spot, the talk all spring has been that he would be No. 5.
This would be colossally stupid, since the 5th starter gets skipped a few times, and Boof is clearly the Twins 2nd best starter.

It seemed the Twins were making the exact same mistake they did last year, when they handed jobs to shitty veterans (Juan Castro and Tony Batista), and nearly played themselves out of contention.

However, it's starting to look like the Twins (read: Gardy) learned their lesson last year after all.
Silva gave up 9 runs in 3.1 innings in his last start. He now has an 11.02 ERA this spring.
It's clear he's still the pitcher he was last year (if not worse), not the pitcher that finished 5th in the AL in ERA in 2005.
Finally, after that start, Gardy admitted that Silva cannot enter the season in the rotation if he's pitching this poorly.
The 5th spot is now down to Silva and Garza. With a 3 inning, 1 run relief effort Sunday, Garza has now pitched 12 innings this spring and allowed two runs.
While I know the Twins would love to get Garza some more minor league experience (he's pitched only a handful of games above A-ball), it appears he might've finally overtaken Silva for the last spot.
And in another shocking moment of intelligence from Gardy, he said that he expects Bonser to in fact, be the No. 2 starter.
("Looks to me like he's our second best starter," Gardy said. To which the entire Twins fan-base answered: "No shit!")

Not only is this good because Garza's flat out better than Silva, it's good because it shows the team that Gardy is perhaps finally going to inject some accountability into the process of winning jobs.
In the past, we've seen many veteran players, like Castro, Batista, Lew Ford, Rondell White, Shannon Stewart, Doug Mientkiewicz, Rick Reed and now Silva just to name a few, who Gardy has babied simply because they were veterans.
Maybe that will finally stop.

Ortiz and Ponson are still worth worrying over (Ortiz entered today's start with a 0.75 ERA, and was hammered for 6 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings, Ponson's spring ERA is 6.30), but at the very least, we can be reasonably sure that their will be a much quicker hook for these guys than there was for Castro and Batista last year.
With Perkins, Slowey and Baker (and perhaps Garza) in Triple-A, the Twins can't afford to let these guys stink it up.

The big question now is, what happens to Silva?
It sounds like the Twins are going to take 12 pitchers North, something they haven't done in several years (and that, scarily, is as much because of the team's lack of decent bench options as it is the pitching woes).
They would've loved to make either JD Durbin or lefty specialist Mike Venafro that 12th guy. But now perhaps Silva is the 12th guy, with Garza as the 5th starter. This wouldn't be bad, because it would give Silva some 'extended spring training' by being able to try and work through his problems on the side and in mop-up duty.

But if Durbin doesn't make the team he's gone, and Venafro would likely catch on somewhere else as well. Wouldn't seem worth losing them if Silva never pans out.
There's also the chance Silva gets sent to the minors, I don't believe he has the required service-time to refuse an assignment (a la Kyle Lohse last year).
The problem with that is Silva is somewhat of a head-case, and I don't see him taking that well at all (Silva insists he's fine and that his spring ERA is nothing to worry about, incidentally).

Personally, I have no idea how this is going to shake out. I'm just encouraged that Gardy finally seems willing to make decisions based on effectiveness, not seniority.

2007 AL Central Preview - Cleveland Indians

I have to admit, I kind of hate the Indians. Every year everyone talks about them like they’re the goddamm ‘27 Yankees, and every year they underachieve. For the record, Sports Illustrated has picked the Tribe to win the Central this year.
But you know, maybe they aren’t actually underachieving.
Maybe, if you’re like me, you looked at their team last year, picked by many, many morons to win the World Series, and said: “Gee, this team has no bullpen. And their shorstop is fat. And Aaron Boone sucks. Casey Blake should be a bench player. Their rotation is full of 4th starters after CC Sabathia.”

No, the Indians didn’t underachieve, it turns out. They played about like they should’ve under the above circumstances. That doesn’t mean they can be counted out this year. Boone is gone. The bullpen has been upgraded. The fat shortstop, Jhonny Peralta, might go back to his 2005 form. And a couple of those 4th starters look capable of being 2s or 3s.
Probable Starting Lineup:
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Josh Barfield
C Victor Martinez
DH Travis Hafner
SS Jhonny Peralta
RF Trot Nixon
1B Casey Blake/Ryan Garko
LF David Delluci/Jason Michaels
3B Andy Marte
Starting Rotation:
LH CC Sabathia
RH Jake Westbrook
LH Cliff Lee (DL)
RH Paul Byrd
LH Jeremy Sowers
RH Fausto Carmona
Closer: Joe Borowski
Sizemore is a stud at the top of the order and in CF. Truly one of the most dynamic players in the game. Victor Martinez is the only challenge to Joe Mauer as the AL's best hitting catcher, and Travis Hafner might be the most complete offensive player in the game. Those three alone make the Indians lineup a tough one. Josh Barfield is a quality player at second, and Trot Nixon is a good addition in RF. If Peralta gets his groove back, and young 3B Andy Marte proves ready, this will be a great lineup, regardless of how the platoons at 1B and LF work out.

The rotation has good potential. Cliff Lee opens the year on the DL, and will be replaced by Fausto Carmona (who isn’t very good). But Sabathia is still a legit No.1, and young lefty Jeremy Sowers might end up being their second best starter.
Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook could be aces on a bad team, and are solid as middle-of-the-rotation guys.

The bullpen still isn’t very good. They signed Keith Foulke to a $5 million deal, and he promptly retired. Joe Borowski, who lost his job as Cubs closer to LaTroy Hawkins, is the closer. I never liked Bob Wickman, but he was much better. Former Twin Aaron Fultz, Rafael Betancourt, and 64-year old Roberto Hernandez, will also work out the Tribe pen.

The good: Strong lineup is still young, could rebound for a big offensive season. Rotation is solid top to bottom.
The bad: Not a great defensive team besides Sizemore, bullpen could be much improved and still be below-par.
Best-case scenario: The usual suspects keep mashing, while Nixon has a big year and Peralta returns to form. Marte develops into the game’s next great young 3B, the rotation stays healthy, and the bullpen holds up admirably. Tribe win the pennant.
Worse-case scenario: Aside from Sizemore, Hafner and Martinez they don’t get much offense. Defense costs them too many games, and the rotation is banged up. Bullpen is terrible again. Tribe lose 85 games.

Cleveland Indians
Manager: Eric Wedge
Offense: B+
Defense: C
Starting Pitching: B
Bullpen: D+
Bench: B
Prediction: 83-79, 4th in AL Central.

Yankees Suck

Remember the Rally Monkey?
That was gay.

AL Central Preview - KC Royals

This team has been soooo bad for soooo long.
When will it end?
Not this year. Or next.
One, they’re in a really tough division, and two, they spent the last half-dozen or so years doing nothing.

They weren’t winning, but they weren’t really rebuilding either. Their drafts continuously failed to produce quality players (hell, even quality prospects), and when they traded away veterans, they rarely got anything decent in return.

On that front at least, things are looking up a little bit for the Royals. They have two of the best offensive prospects in baseball in Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Gordon appears set to open this season in KC, at 3B. That would move the Royals best current player, Mark Teahan, to RF. Butler is a future DH, and probably a year away. Luke Hudson looked like a promising starter last year, and No. 1 pick Luke Hochevar could be in the majors this year. He’s the best pitching prospect the Royals have had since they traded David Cone for Sean Hearn.
Zack Greinke looked like a top prospect until he took a year off for personal reasons. He came back and showed some promise, but that year off might have cost him a chance to become a frontline starter.

So while Royals fans can at least take comfort in knowing that there finally appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel, it’s still a very long tunnel. And the fact that new GM Dayton Moore thought it was a good idea to give Gil Meche a 5-year, $55 million contract this season, makes you wonder if they won’t again find a way to screw it up. Bottom line: 2007 could see them lose 100 games for the fifth time in six years.

Probable Starting Lineup
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek/Esteban German
LF Mark Teahan
DH Mike Sweeney
RF Emil Brown/Reggie Sanders
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ryan Shealy
C Jason Larue/John Buck
SS Angel Berroa
Starting Rotation
RH Gil Meche
LH Odalis Perez
RH Zack Greinke
RH Luke Hudson
Elarton/Duckworth/Bannister
Closer: Octavio Dotel
Teahan developed into a solid player midway through last season, hitting .290 with 18 homers in 393 ABs. CF David DeJesus (pictured above) is a pretty good player, too. Mark Grudzielanek (who begins the year on the DL) is a great fielding 2B, and is still decent with the stick. Jason LaRue is a decent hitting catcher, and will push incumbent John Buck, who’s been a disappointment so far.
Some of their young arms show promise. Octavio Dotel isn’t much of a closer, but he’s better than Ambiorix Burgos (traded to the Mets). Mike Sweeney’s been talking all spring about staying healthy, but I, like many, are no longer listening. The guy’s washed up. I don’t see him making any impact, especially with Ryan Shealy at 1B and with Brown, Sanders, Teahan, Gordon, Butler or someone else available to take the ABs at DH.
The rotation is iffy. Meche is a similar pitcher to Kyle Lohse yet landed that $55 million, and Odalis Perez has struggled ever since making the All-Star team with the Dodgers. They’ll be followed by Greinke, Hudson and a fifth starter yet to be determined. Familiar names like Jimmy Gobble, Brian Bannister, Dewon Brazelton (he was picked after Joe Mauer and Mark Prior), Brandon Duckworth and others are somewhere in the mix for spots as a starter or reliever.
The good: Some developing young hitters, solid defense. Rotation should be a little better.
The bad: They’re simply below par in every area, even the ones they’ve improved.
Best-case scenario: Gordon is the AL Rookie of the Year, and Butler arrives midway through and shows promise. Teahan and DeJesus take another step forward, while Meche, Greinke, Hudson and Perez all post sub-5 ERAs. Royals flirt with .500 and finish with 76 wins.
Worst-case scenario: Gordon and Butler aren’t ready, and Meche badly fails to earn his contract. The rotation is a mess, and the bullpen is no better. Royals lose 105 games.
Kansas City Royals
Manager: Buddy Bell
Offense: C
Defense: B
Rotation: D
Bullpen: D
Bench: D
Prediction: 64-98, 5th in AL Central

One week later, 10-9

I was dying to update after the Twins caught fire this past week, but was unfortunately stuck without internet access in Rapid City, covering HS basketball.

While I was gone, the Twins went from 4-8 to 10-9, with most of their regulars getting hot at the plate, and most of their pitchers becoming un-hittable.

Some notes:
Boof Bonser is a lock for the rotation, having pitched 11 scoreless innings in his last three starts.
Apparently, Ron Gardenhire has him penciled in as the No. 5, which is stupid.
He should be the No. 2 behind Johan Santana.

Ramon Ortiz has a 0.75 ERA through three outings. I'm slowly starting to believe he could be a solid starter this year. Keeping my fingers crossed anyway.

Scott Baker has quietly settled down, having cut his ERA in half (though it's still 9.64 - that tells you how bad he was early on). I haven't given up on Baker, and hopefully the team hasn't either.

Kevin Slowey was cut Sunday after allowing three runs in one inning of work. That isn't why he was cut, as the three runs were largely due to cheap Texas-League hits. He'll go to Triple-A and pitch every five days, and I'll make the bold prediction that he makes his first Major League start later this season.

Carlos Silva continues to be up and down. He credited Santana for getting on his case at a recent bullpen session, in which CyTana urged Cheif to "stop thinking about mechanics and just throw."
This is the kind of stuff that makes for good copy in the paper, but it doesn't sit particularly well with me. If Silva's going to be effective this year, it's going to be from working with pitching coach Rick Anderson, not from the Little League wisdom of more talented teammates.

Friend of Twinstown Lee S. takes me to task for dissing Jason Tyner, but I'm going to stick to my guns.
Tyner, who is hitting .167 with just one walk this spring, has a career OPS of .624, which is unfathomably horrible (Braves pitcher Mike Hampton has a career OPS of .646). He's never homered in his career, which in itself isn't a big deal, but if you have a putrid .315 career SLG %, you'd better have better than a .309 OBP.
In fairness, the Twins would not have won the AL Central without him last year, and he showed an impressive knack for clutch hits, even against lefties. You just always had a good feeling when he came to the plate, certainly more so than with Lew Ford.
I think he could be a decent pinch-hitter, and while I'd love to see him hit .312 again this year, I wouldn't count on it.

I've noticed that one of the quickest ways to make Twins fans testy is to rip on fringe players who play hard (though I'm pretty sure they all play hard).
I got tons of emails last year from fans saying something to the effect of, "I can't believe how you keep ripping on Lew Ford, he plays hard and plays the game the right way and blah, blah, my kid loves him, blah, blah, he signed an autograph for my wife, blah, blah."

I don't have anything personal against any of the Twins (except maybe Joe Mauer for being totally boring). I don't like Lew Ford, and I wish the Twins would've released him this off-season, for one reason and one reason alone: He sucks at playing baseball. I'm sure he's a great guy.

These numbers should be enough to make any Twins fan smile.
Justin Morneau - .343
Jason Kubel - .353
Jason Bartlett - .303
Torii Hunter - .333
Rondell White - .300
Josh Rabe - .304
Chris Heintz - .357
Luis Castillo - .481
Michael Cuddyer - .350

Not bad. Especially if you compare some of them to where they were a week ago (below).

Within the next week I'll be putting up my predictions for '07, including a breakdown of each team in the AL Central.

Just as a reminder, last year I predicted the Twins would win the Central, Detroit would be the surprise team of the AL, Cleveland would be the most disappointing team in the AL, and that Justin Morneau would hit 34 homers.
Yes, I'm very smart.

4-8-1, updating the roster races

The Twins are off to a most unimpressive 4-8-1 start in Grapefruit League play.
More disconcerting than their actual record is the fact that injuries and in some cases poor planning is leaving them thin in a few areas, and many players are just plain stinking it up so far.

The Twins are hitting .233 as a team, with a .291 OBP and .339 SLG.
In other words, they have been the equivalent of nine Juan Castro's.

Some of the major culprits:
OF/1B Garrett Jones leads the Twins with 27 at-bats, and has just two hits, for a .074 average. Jones has been around forever as a power-hitting Triple-A first basemen, and made the move this spring to RF, since the path to the majors is obviously blocked at 1B. The Twins are giving him a long look, and he's falling on his face.

*Jason Tyner, .160
*Nick Punto, .130
*Justin Morneau, .167
*Jason Bartlett, .238
*Josh Rabe, .143
*Matt LeCroy, .211

So who is hitting?
Michael Cuddyer, .348
Torii Hunter, .333
Jason Kubel, .409
Mike Redmond, .333
Jeff Cirillo, .375 (3 for 8)
Luis Castillo, .333 (3 for 9)
Joe Mauer, .286
Chris Heintz, .400

Luis Rodriguez, who the Twins seem determined to get rid of at any cost despite having no alternatives for utility infielders, leads the team with 2 homers and 7 RBI.

A few other random notes:
*Lew Ford is out for 4-6 weeks after knee surgery, opening a spot on the roster.
I've begged and pleaded for the Twins to get rid of Ford, but they insisted on bringing him back, even at the ridiculous price of $985,000. Now they're paying him almost a million to sit on the DL.

*Sidney Ponson pitched poorly in his first spring start, but Ron Gardenhire went out of his way to make excuses for him. He's making it pretty clear that he has his heart set on Ponson as his 5th starter, regardless of the actual performance of the candidates. Sounds a lot like last year, when Barlett hit. 377 in spring training and Castro hit .183, and the shorstop job went to Castro.

*Glen Perkins pitched well in his first start, and has added a sinker to his repertoire. Good thing, since he, by his own admission, 'led organized baseball in fly-ball outs' last year.

*Matty LeCroy is probably finished as a big leaguer. He's too banged up and out of shape, and doesn't have the bat speed. My guess is he spends this year in Triple-A, maybe gets a call-up or two, and then retires. He wants to become a coach, and the Twins are already interested in using him as such.
I'll throw in the token reminder that the Twins kept this guy over David Ortiz. 54 homers in 2006, David Ortiz.

*The Twins lineup will be as strong as it's ever been, especially if Kubel keeps hitting and Rondell White plays like he did in the second half last year (both are pretty solid bets).
Unfortunately they're likely to have a poor bench. Tyner is now the primary backup OF, with Kubel serving as a 5th OF when he isn't DH'ing.
With no power, a below-average arm and little plate discipline, Tyner isn't as good as he appeared last year. I like him, and he belongs on the team, but the more time he spends on the bench the better.
And there's still no backup shorstop. L-Rod might make the team now with Ford out, but he still wouldn't be the backup at short, and Gardy refuses to simply slide Punto over on occasion and play Cirillo at 3rd (which could of course be economical and smart, but Gardy doesn't think that way).
Rule V pickup Alejandro Machado is still hurt, likely ruling him out of the competition. Alexi Casilla is under consideration, but he needs to play every day in Rochester.

*The answer may come in a trade, as the Twins could move one of their young arms (Scott Baker, JD Durbin perhaps) for an IF (hopefully not Juan Castro).
The Twins might keep 12 pitchers, too, and that would likely mean a spot for Durbin, who's out of options.
I've also heard that the Twins could consider releasing Matt Guerrier, who's been very reliable in long relief the last two years, to make room for Durbin, whom they understandably don't want to lose for nothing.

*Boof Bonser and Ramon Ortiz both pitched well in their last start. Carlos Silva continues to be up and down. Despite what they're saying publicly, it's pretty clear that those three have the 2-4 spots in the rotation locked up. Matt Garza returns from a sore neck to start Tuesday, and he is probably the one guy who has a decent shot to take the 5-spot from Ponson.

*Luis Castillo is battling sore legs (surprise!). Not only is this certainly his last season with the Twins, but I'm also placing the over-under on games for Luis this year at 100. It's a good thing Cirillo is aboard. He's the only decent spare part the team has.

*Randy Choate, a lefty with ML experience the Twins brought in as a possible second lefty out of the pen, was roughed up again Sunday. He's given up 7 runs and 8 hits in 4.2 innings. No way he makes the team.
However, Mike Venafro, another journeyman lefty, has been great, allowing no runs on two hits in 5 innings. He's still got a shot, especially if they take 12 pitchers.

*Thought there would be more haters out last week. Though the two lists submitted were both pretty good.