Monday, March 12, 2007

4-8-1, updating the roster races


The Twins are off to a most unimpressive 4-8-1 start in Grapefruit League play.
More disconcerting than their actual record is the fact that injuries and in some cases poor planning is leaving them thin in a few areas, and many players are just plain stinking it up so far.

The Twins are hitting .233 as a team, with a .291 OBP and .339 SLG.
In other words, they have been the equivalent of nine Juan Castro's.

Some of the major culprits:
OF/1B Garrett Jones leads the Twins with 27 at-bats, and has just two hits, for a .074 average. Jones has been around forever as a power-hitting Triple-A first basemen, and made the move this spring to RF, since the path to the majors is obviously blocked at 1B. The Twins are giving him a long look, and he's falling on his face.

*Jason Tyner, .160
*Nick Punto, .130
*Justin Morneau, .167
*Jason Bartlett, .238
*Josh Rabe, .143
*Matt LeCroy, .211

So who is hitting?
Michael Cuddyer, .348
Torii Hunter, .333
Jason Kubel, .409
Mike Redmond, .333
Jeff Cirillo, .375 (3 for 8)
Luis Castillo, .333 (3 for 9)
Joe Mauer, .286
Chris Heintz, .400

Luis Rodriguez, who the Twins seem determined to get rid of at any cost despite having no alternatives for utility infielders, leads the team with 2 homers and 7 RBI.

A few other random notes:
*Lew Ford is out for 4-6 weeks after knee surgery, opening a spot on the roster.
I've begged and pleaded for the Twins to get rid of Ford, but they insisted on bringing him back, even at the ridiculous price of $985,000. Now they're paying him almost a million to sit on the DL.

*Sidney Ponson pitched poorly in his first spring start, but Ron Gardenhire went out of his way to make excuses for him. He's making it pretty clear that he has his heart set on Ponson as his 5th starter, regardless of the actual performance of the candidates. Sounds a lot like last year, when Barlett hit. 377 in spring training and Castro hit .183, and the shorstop job went to Castro.

*Glen Perkins pitched well in his first start, and has added a sinker to his repertoire. Good thing, since he, by his own admission, 'led organized baseball in fly-ball outs' last year.

*Matty LeCroy is probably finished as a big leaguer. He's too banged up and out of shape, and doesn't have the bat speed. My guess is he spends this year in Triple-A, maybe gets a call-up or two, and then retires. He wants to become a coach, and the Twins are already interested in using him as such.
I'll throw in the token reminder that the Twins kept this guy over David Ortiz. 54 homers in 2006, David Ortiz.

*The Twins lineup will be as strong as it's ever been, especially if Kubel keeps hitting and Rondell White plays like he did in the second half last year (both are pretty solid bets).
Unfortunately they're likely to have a poor bench. Tyner is now the primary backup OF, with Kubel serving as a 5th OF when he isn't DH'ing.
With no power, a below-average arm and little plate discipline, Tyner isn't as good as he appeared last year. I like him, and he belongs on the team, but the more time he spends on the bench the better.
And there's still no backup shorstop. L-Rod might make the team now with Ford out, but he still wouldn't be the backup at short, and Gardy refuses to simply slide Punto over on occasion and play Cirillo at 3rd (which could of course be economical and smart, but Gardy doesn't think that way).
Rule V pickup Alejandro Machado is still hurt, likely ruling him out of the competition. Alexi Casilla is under consideration, but he needs to play every day in Rochester.

*The answer may come in a trade, as the Twins could move one of their young arms (Scott Baker, JD Durbin perhaps) for an IF (hopefully not Juan Castro).
The Twins might keep 12 pitchers, too, and that would likely mean a spot for Durbin, who's out of options.
I've also heard that the Twins could consider releasing Matt Guerrier, who's been very reliable in long relief the last two years, to make room for Durbin, whom they understandably don't want to lose for nothing.

*Boof Bonser and Ramon Ortiz both pitched well in their last start. Carlos Silva continues to be up and down. Despite what they're saying publicly, it's pretty clear that those three have the 2-4 spots in the rotation locked up. Matt Garza returns from a sore neck to start Tuesday, and he is probably the one guy who has a decent shot to take the 5-spot from Ponson.

*Luis Castillo is battling sore legs (surprise!). Not only is this certainly his last season with the Twins, but I'm also placing the over-under on games for Luis this year at 100. It's a good thing Cirillo is aboard. He's the only decent spare part the team has.

*Randy Choate, a lefty with ML experience the Twins brought in as a possible second lefty out of the pen, was roughed up again Sunday. He's given up 7 runs and 8 hits in 4.2 innings. No way he makes the team.
However, Mike Venafro, another journeyman lefty, has been great, allowing no runs on two hits in 5 innings. He's still got a shot, especially if they take 12 pitchers.

*Thought there would be more haters out last week. Though the two lists submitted were both pretty good.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Matt - I am glad you run this site and I like most of your insights - but "With no power, a below-average arm and little plate discipline, Tyner isn't as good as he appeared last year." about Tyner misses the mark. He's a gamer and brings the same kind of energy and clutch play to the team that Punto brings. EVene if he bats .250 T, HIS HITS WILL BE THERE WHEN THE TEAM NEEDS THEM.

PS stu was weak at AA tourney last week - you should have drawn the big dance