Twins Notes PLUS 2007 AL Central Preview - ChiSox Edition

That's Jermaine Dye in the picture.
Apparently, one time he shot a deer.

Opening Day is now three days away, and I admit, this blog has been ill-prepared for Opening Day so far.
Still have to do the Sox, the Twins, the Tigers...and of course bitch about Ron Gardenhire. This is all complicated by the fact that I have to do a story about the SD HS Bball Player of the Year (for the four of you who care, he averages 31 ppg and his initials are Louie Krogman), and I have to do a story about how the Stampede think they're going to win the Clark Cup.
They're not.
(Hartigan, that was a test to see if you're paying attention.)

The Twins have swallowed very hard and decided to keep Carlos Silva as their 5th starter, while sending Matt Garza to Triple-A.
At this point the move isn't really a major deal. The big deal was picking up Silva's $4.35 million option in November. That led to this.
Honestly, Garza could use more starts in AAA, especially since he'd be skipped a couple times in April if he was with the Twins. As Terry Ryan said, "This isn't about Silva. It's about Garza."
But that's not really the issue.

What bothers me is the Twins essentially lied to Garza, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins when they told them they were all in competition for a spot.
Because all four of them pitched better than Silva, and all of them except for Baker pitched better than Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz. Yet back to Rochester they go.
If you're not going to give the kids a shot, don't tell them the jobs are open in the first place.
Funny, the Twins believe they can contend for the AL Central, which figures to be the toughest division in baseball, and their own Triple-A team might have a deeper and better starting rotation.
If there's a silver lining here, it's that all indications are that Silva will be on a short leash. With all that talent in Rochester, Ortiz and Ponson probably will too. But if the Twins were to end up ditching all three of them, they'll have wasted $9 million in salary, which is just stupid for a small-market team.
Yes, the Twins could survive all this and still make the playoffs. But why make themselves go through with it?

Okay, on to the Pale Hose.
I think the White Sox are on the way down.
They're still a good team, and are still capable of winning the AL Central. But they're getting older, and Ozzie Guillen has been talking crazy all spring.
He wants to emulate the Twins, he says, and play small ball.
I get that, because that's what they did in 2005 (sort of), and it got them a World Series championship.
But I don't know that small ball is really what propelled the Twins and Tigers into the playoffs last year, and I don't think the Sox are necessarily built for that this year.
I've got serious questions about their rotation, and the bullpen is inferior to the Twins' and Tigers'. What's worse if you're a White Sox fan is that key players such as Dye, Mark Buehrle and Joe Crede are almost certainly in their last year with the team, so this is probably it for a couple years.
Probable Starting Lineup:
LF Scott Podsednik
CF Darin Erstad
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
3B Joe Crede
C AJ Pierzynski
2B Tadahito Iguchi
SS Juan Uribe
Starting Rotation:
LH Mark Buehrle
RH Jon Garland
RH Jose Contreras
RH Javier Vazquez
RH John Danks
Closer: Bobby Jenks

You'd be hard pressed to find two guys at the top of any order who will get on base less than Podsednik and Erstad. They both run well, but are actually just not very good offensive players.
3-6 is a murderers row, no question, but no way Dye repeats last year's numbers, while Thome, at 36, is always a threat to have injuries. Iguchi would be batting in front of them if Ozzie knew how to make a lineup, while Uribe finished last in all of baseball in OBP. He's terrible.

The Sox hit 236 homers last year, improved their OBP from .322 in their title year to .342, and led the league in batting avg. with runners in scoring position.
Yet Guillen says: "We hit too many home runs (last year). Our situational hitting was horrible. This year we're going back to small ball."
Good luck with that Ozzie. This is a prime example of a manager using his own poor memory to make decisions, rather than looking at those annoying things smart people call statistics (so that's the reason Ozzie and Gardy get along so well).

Buehrle had a terrible season last year, which made it all the more surprising to me that they traded their best starter, Freddy Garcia.
Garland is a solid No.2, but I don't think he's any better than Boof Bonser. Their 3-5 guys don't scare me, either.
Jenks has had a terrible spring, but he had a terrible spring last year, too, and still ended up with 41 saves. The rest of their pen is decent, led by Matt Thornton and Mike MacDougal.

The good: Except Podsednik, every hitter in their lineup could hit 20 homers in a full season, with their 3-4-5 guys all capable of 40-45. Rotation is full of innings-eaters. Jenks appears to be a top-tier closer. A nice bench.
The bad: Their 9-1-2 hitters could all post sub-.300 OBPs. That really sucks. If Buehrle is the same pitcher he was last year, they'll really regret trading Garcia.
Best-case scenario: Podsednik and Erstad find their stroke, and get on base for the big boys, who stay healthy and rip another 230 homers. Buehrle returns to ace status, while Garland, Contreras and Vazquez all throw 200 solid innings. Sox win the pennant.
Worst-case scenario: Ozzie's small-ball craziness is a poor fit for a team dominated by sluggers. Erstad is released by June, while Thome and Dye can't quite repeat last year's heroics. All of the starters pitch like 4's, and the pen is shaky. Sox struggle to reach .500.
Chicago White Sox
Manager: Ozzie Guillen
Offense: B
Defense: B
Starting Pitching: C
Bullpen: B
Bench: B
Prediction: 86-76, 3rd in AL Central.