Minnesota Twins 2006 Season Preview

As recently as a month ago, I was convinced that for the first time since 2001 I would pick someone other than the Twins to win the AL Central.
Last year my gut told me that the Twins had too many new and young players, but everyone else in the world was picking them to go the World Series, so I got suckered in.
This year I thought all winter that the White Sox would return as the best team in baseball.
But as spring training has wore on, I just don't have a good feeling about them.
This year, the Sox are the hunted, not the hunter. The Twins on the other hand, are the underdog. And anyone who's followed this team for a lengthy period knows that if there's a role they respond well to, it's that of underdog. I think the Twins will come out on top of a highly competitive American League Central division thanks to the best pitching in the league and an improved offensive attack and improved defense.
This is what I don't get about those who dismiss the Twins as a second division club: They weren't bad last year. They went 83-79. There are a lot of teams that would consider an 83 win season a wild success.
Their pitching, which was great last year, will be even better. Joe Mays is gone, Terry Mulholland is gone, JC Romero is gone. Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano are in, and Brad Radke and Carlos Silva are healthy.
Meaning all they have to do to improve on their 83 wins is add some offense. Not a ton. Just a little.
And I just don't see how even the most pessimistic person could look at the lineup and not think it will be much better this year. Not just because of Rondell White and Luis Castillo.
Think about it.
Do you really think Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau won't have breakout type seasons this year?
Do you think Torii Hunter won't have 25 homers and 25 steals if he doesn't break his ankle again?
Do you really think a RF platoon of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel won't improve on Jacque Jones' .249 average and 23 homers?
Before we get to that, here is a look at the team's opening day 25-man roster:
Starting Lineup:
LF Shannon Stewart
Spring training avg: .261
It's a make or break year (and a contract year) for Stewart. Considering he's a far inferior fielder to Lew Ford, he has to get his ass on base to keep his job. He was hurt most of last year. I'd be shocked if he didn't improve on last year's .274/.323 OBP numbers.
2B Luis Castillo
Spring avg: .356
A gold glove caliber fielder who will get on base a lot. He won't steal 50 bases ever again, but 25 is possible. A huge improvement over Nick Punto/Luis Rivas/Bret Boone.
C Joe Mauer
Spring avg: .362
Might be the best catcher in the game and he's just getting better.
.320 with 20 homers isn't out of the question.
DH Rondell White
Spring avg: .351
Just stay healthy, baby. White is to this team what Chili Davis was to the '91 team. If DH'ing can keep him off the DL, he'll hit .300 with 20 homers.
CF Torii Hunter
Spring avg: .280
Still something of an underachiever at the plate, but he's a consistent producer. As long as he's healthy, and before last year's freak injury he always has been, he'll hit .270 with 25 homers and 25 steals while playing CF as well as anyone in the world. He's also the leader of the clubhouse, something this team needs after last year.
1B Justin Morneau
Spring avg: .375
Might be the most important player in the lineup. There seems to be less pressure on him this year from the fans and media, and with Torii Hunter, Rondell White and Tony Batista surrounding him in the lineup, he doesn't have to feel like the only guy capable of driving in runs. I'm predicting 34 homeruns this season.
RF Michael Cuddyer
Spring avg: .500
He slugged .844 in 32 spring training AB's. That's why he's got the job. But this is it. With Jason Kubel ready to go, this has to be Cuddy's last chance to win a job. There's an outside chance he could hit .280 with 20 homers.
3B Tony Batista
Spring avg: .224
He hit a team-high 4 homers, otherwise his spring performance was unimpressive. He makes me nervous, but he does have power, which at the very least could change the way pitchers approach the guys hitting in front of him.
He will hit at least 30 homers if he stays in the lineup, I just worry that he won't be good enough to do so.
SS Juan Castro
Spring avg: .176
The Twins must be pretty confident in hitters 1-7, because the bottom two are out-making machines. However Castro, who earned the nod when Jason Bartlett was sent to the minors, is excellent with the glove, and the dirty little secret from last year was that the Twins fielding was as bad as it's been since I've been alive.
Bench
OF Lew Ford
An excellent fielder at all 3 spots. Can steal a base, has decent power and can draw a walk. If Shannon Stewart proves to be finished, the Twins could still compete with him in LF.
OF Jason Kubel
Another wild card. Has .300-20 homer potential. If he plays well enough out of the shoot, Ruben Sierra (currently on the DL) might never play a game as a Twin.
IF Nick Punto
Hated, hated, hated him as a starter. As a utility guy he has some upside. He can run, has a little power, is a switch hitter and can play pretty much any position but C-1B.
IF Luis Rodriguez
I really hope he stays on this team. Can play all 4 IF spots, and could probly fill in an OF corner spot if he had to. And he actually has a clue what to do with that wooden stick in his hands. Also a switch-hitter, he had a .338 OBP last year, which is pretty high going by utility IF standards.
C Mike Redmond
One of the best backup catchers in baseball. Gets it done behind the plate, is a terrific clubhouse guy, and hit .311 last year.
Starting Rotation:
LH Johan Santana
The best starter in the game. Period. It would be nice to see him pitch well in April for once, though, especially since the Twins have a difficult early schedule.
RH Brad Radke
Still underrated. Also a slow starter, but maybe the best big-game pitcher the team has had in my lifetime. When you really, really need a quality start, Radke delivers.
RH Carlos Silva
Pitched through an injury last year and still ranked 5th in AL ERA. This year he's healthy. He has the best control in the game, and is also perhaps the game's most economical pitcher. For a No. 3 you can't do better.
RH Kyle Lohse
Went 5-0 with a 2.42 ERA this spring. I'm not expecting him to win the Cy Young or anything, but Twins fans who've hated the guy (you know who you are) should keep an open mind. He may prove to be the best 4th starter in the league.
RH Scott Baker
Very impressive last year, posting a 3.35 ERA in 10 starts. That would've been 5th in the league if he qualified. And he's our fifth starter.
Bullpen
RH Matt Guerrier
An excellent 3.39 ERA last year, but much of it was mop-up duty. I'm pretty confident he'll be fine, and if he's not, there are plenty of options ready to replace him.
LH Francisco Liriano
One of the top two pitching prospects in the game, and I like the fact that they're working him in through the bullpen. Everyone compares him to Santana, and he seemed to benefit from the transition pretty well.
RH Willie Eyre
Has been very reliable in AAA, and at 27, he's ready. He should be fine as a mop-up guy.
RH Jessie Crain
Has been great since getting called up two years ago, but his very low strikeout numbers - he had just 25 K's in 80 innings last year - scare me. Still, he gets it done, and is equally tough against lefties and righties.
RH Juan Rincon
One of the top set-up guys in baseball. With nasty, nasty stuff, he's racked up 200 K's out of the bullpen over the last two years. He could easily be a top-flight closer, and I'd bet he could be a 15-game winner as a starter, too.
RH Joe Nathan
He's the equivalent of Santana in the bullpen, a five-star guy. Usually has one week-long slump where he struggles with command, otherwise his 97-mph fastball and 91-mph slider make him impossible to hit.
Breaking it down
The Twins pitching is gonna be great and the offense will, I think, do the job. Defensively they'll also be better. If you believe in being strong up the middle (I do), you can't do much better than Mauer, Castro-Castillo and Hunter.
Everyone who dismisses the Twins does so because they're not impressed by Tony Batista, Rondell White and Luis Castillo.
They're missing the point.
This team is going to be better because of a healthy Torii Hunter and the emergence of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. Anything the three newcomers add (which I'm guessing will be substantial) is an added bonus.
They also have a nice bench, with Ford and Kubel giving them two good bats.
The Good: Excellent and deep rotation, loaded bullpen, very strong up the middle defensively. Best offensive players are still in the early stages of their careers.
The Bad: Two sub-.300 OBP guys at the bottom of the order, many of the starters could wash out as easily as they could shine.
Best-case scenario: Mauer and Morneau become two of the game's brightest stars, while White, Hunter and Batista each hit 25+ homers. Castro and Castillo are Gold Glove caliber up the middle, while Cuddyer and Kubel combine to far surpass Jacque Jones' production in right.
All five starters finish with an ERA under 4, and the bullpen is baseball's best. Twins win the pennant.
Worst-case scenario: Morneau proves that he's the next Randy Bush, not Kent Hrbek, Hunter, White and Castillo all battle injuries, while Batista is so bad the team turns to Terry Tiffee to play 3rd by June 1st. In a carbon copy of last year, punchless team finishes around .500
Minnesota Twins
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
Offense: B-
Defense: B
Starting Pitching: A
Bullpen: A-
Bench: B
Predicition: 91-71 AL Central Champs