Thursday, April 20, 2006

Cuddy Does It

First off, I'm happy for Michael Cuddyer.
He's had more downs than ups through his Twins career, some due to the team jerking him around, some due to his own failures.
But he got a big hit last night (off JC Romero no less) to give the Twins a big win.
The pitching still sucks, and the Twins are still finding ways to win.
Unfortunately, the starting pitching is far from the only thing failing the Twins right now.
I've been overly optimistic with this team since the winter, but right now I see a lot of ominous signs.
*Rondell White. He's been terrible, and I'm less and less confident every day that it's just a slump. Ruben Sierra had some good swings last night, but he can't play every day. White simply has to get it together.
*Tony Batista. Just when I was allowing myself to think he might actually be able to put together a decent season, he's looked horrible for the last two games. His swing is so long, and against pitchers who can bring it in the mid to high 90's he simply doesn't have the bat speed. At least he's shown more patience than has been the norm for his career.
*Matt Guerrier. The guy's throwing batting practice out there. He looks awful. His numbers last year (a 3.39 ERA) were sure nice, but he rarely was asked to pitch in key situations. So far this year he's been unable to take on a larger role. With veteran lefty Dennys Reyes off to a great start in AAA, I wouldn't give him a long leash.
*Jesse Crain. You can't get major league hitters out by just throwing 94-mph fastballs, Jesse. Yeah, that's pretty fast, but not fast enough to live without offspeed stuff. So far Juan Rincon and Francisco Liriano have been the only reliable middle relievers. And even that's tenuous because.....
*Kyle Lohse. He did a nice job against Oakland but his other two starts have been ugly. In his first start against Cleveland he didn't even compete. As much as I want to be careful with Liriano, you've got to look into trading Lohse while he still has value.
The only difference is before I would've said trade him for a bat, now I might consider trading him for a reliever.
*Coaching. There's no denying that the offense has been a million times better so far, continuing to come from behind while finding a variety of ways to score runs from a variety of sources. But their situational hitting is still awful, and amateur baserunning mistakes are still too common.
Twice in the last week they've loaded the bases with no outs against an All-Star closer. And both times each of the first two hitters failed to get the run home. Yes, they got a clutch 2-out at-bat to get the job done in both cases, but that's beside the point. One of the most important aspects of winning baseball is scoring runs with men on 3rd and less than 2 outs. And no team has been worse in recent years than the Twins. I don't expect hitting coaches to be able to miraculously make Nick Punto into Chuck Knoblauch or Torii Hunter into Kirby Puckett. But it's their job to make them smarter and more effective situational hitters. They haven't done it so far.

Some other observations from around the league:
*Curt Schilling appears to be back. He's 4-0. Right now the Red Sox look like a better team than the Yankees.
*Speaking of the Yankees, Jason Giambi sure looks good. Last year at this time the Yanks were trying to talk him into accepting a demotion to AAA. Right now he's one of the best offensive players in the game.
*A-Rod is so much better in the field than Derek Jeter it's not even....well, close.
*Remember Rob Bowen, a minor league catcher who got a couple cups of coffee with the Twins the last couple years? He was claimed off waivers by the Padres this spring and he's on their roster. That's not so hard to believe. The fact that he was batting 4th in the Padres lineup last week, is. The guy has a career average of .108. A career on-base percentage of .190. A career slugging percentage of .189. In 2004, he batted .197 in 249 at-bats at AA! And he bats cleanup for the Dads. Managers these days are too fucking lazy.
*The Royals are soooooooooooooooo bad. It's pathetic, sad, depressing, tragic - how could you possibly be a fan? They're absolutely terrible, and they can't even say they're rebuilding or have a future. They're playing a bunch of washed up vets. Joe Mays is D-U-N done, and he's their No. 2 starter.
And the Royals recently added seats to Kauffman Stadium. Yeah, cuz people are knocking down the doors to see this team. Their best young pitcher, Zack Greinke, is currently on indefinite leave as he gets treatment for clinical depression. He's apparently considering quitting (he's 22). If that doesn't sum up the Royals, I don't know what does. Sad, sad, sad.
*The White Sox look pretty good. Fat-ass (Ozzie Guillen's words) closer Bobby Jenks is getting it done, and Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez have been nasty. Jon Garland is proving that last year was indeed a fluke, but if the other 4 starters are this good it won't matter. If the Twins pitchers dont get their act together they won't be able to compete with the Sox. Not with....
*Jim Thome hitting like a mad-man. He's scored a run in all 15 Sox games. Let's just be happy Rick Reed is retired.
*At this point its the understatement of the century, but Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the game.
In five seasons before this year, he posted a .332 average, .621 slugging pct, 201 homers, 621 RBIs and 401 walks while striking out only 332 times.
In case you're really bad at math that means he's averaged 200 hits, 40 homers, 125 RBIs and 80 walks per season, in the first five years of his career.
And now this year he's hitting .354 with 10 homers and 22 RBIs through 15 games.
It won't be long before he starts getting the Barry Bonds treatment and draws 200 walks a year.
The difference? Pujols is that good without steroids.
He's 26. We might be talking about the greatest hitter ever by the time he's done.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

YEEEEESSSSSSSSSS

It's a good thing they moved Sunday's Twins game back to 3 p.m., cuz Morneau's probly a little hung over from all the Jag-Bombs I gave him last night.
I'll just pretend for another day that I'm not concerned with how terrible and clueless Rondell White has appeared.
Or that Jesse Crain hasn't shit his pants in every key spot he's seen so far.
I'll just celebrate the fact that I was in attendance for one of the more memorable regular season Twins games in recent history.
8 Jag-Bombs: Morneau. Dude, awesome. There's hope yet.
4 Jag-Bombs: Joe Mauer. Great at-bat first time ever facing Rivera, ends with a knock.
4 Jag-Bombs: Luis Castillo. 4 hits, including a dribbler to start the 9th (I thought he was out)
4 Jag-Bombs: Juan Rincon. Top 9, Yanks lead 5-4 with a runner on 3rd and 1 out. Sheffield at the plate. Any contact and it's a two-run Yankee lead and the game is essentially over.
It goes 3-2, and Sheff fouls off 8 pitches in a row. Rincon keeps pumping strikes, eventually K's him. Biggest at-bat of the game.
2 Jag-Bombs: Francisco Liriano. Another good job. He's pretty good.
2 Jag-Bombs: Juan Castro. Is it possible that he's the MVP so far? Wow.
4 Car-Bombs: Crain. Way to go.

Saturday, April 15, 2006

Twins 5, Yankees 1

It was really fun to tell the 5,000 or so Yankee fans at Friday night's game to stick it.
Thanks to Scott Baker.
He was terrific.
4 Jag-Bombs: Baker. 7 innings, 3 hits, 1 run. Against a loaded lineup.
3 Jag-Bombs: Lew Ford. 2 hits and a terrific throw to nail Jorge Posada trying to score at home. Posada might be my least favorite Yankee ever, so that was cool. You suck, Posada.
3 Jag-Bombs: Juan Castro. Knew the dude could play the field. But right now he's hitting, too. Executed a text-book hit and run to set up a run in the second (he hit the ball right to the hole where the 2B had been, God it was beautiful), then finished a nine-pitch at-bat with an RBI single in the 8th. Right now Gardy looks pretty smart for picking Castro.
2 Jag-Bombs: Juan Rincon. Great job getting out of that jam in the 8th. Rincon is a stud.
1 Jag-Bomb: Johnny Damon. Thanks for still throwin like a girl, Johnny. Means I'll always have taunting ammunition no matter the score.
2 Car-Bombs: Rondell White. Hit the fucking ball.
1 Car-Bomb: Justin Morneau. His 4 early homers have overshadowed the fact that he's still holding onto many of his bad habits, and he's hitting, what .211? Not out of the woods, yet.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

M&M Part Deux?

Okay, I'm probably jinxing them just by bringing the M&M thing up at all, but early on both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau look as though they are going to take a step forward this year.
Mauer reminds me more and more of Don Mattingly every time he steps in the box. I just want to see a homerun or two.
And Morneau, right now, looks like a cinch to end the 30-HR drought.
Of course he was hitting .400 on May 1 last year, so I'm trying my best to temper my enthusiasm.
But I've been saying it all winter - Castillo, White and yes, even Batista, may prove all to be nice additions, but if this team is going to be a winner it'll because Mauer and Morneau have big years.
Having a healthy Torii Hunter, along with White and Batista, seems to be a big benefit to Morneau. Last year he was really the only dangerous guy in the lineup, and everyone knew it.
In hindsight then it is perhaps not surprising that he failed to carry the lineup. This year with a few other 20-HR (or more) guys surrounding him, he doesn't feel like he has to hit all the homers.
My projections for these guys as of today, are:
Mauer: .319 avg 17 HR 91 RBIs
Morneau: .267 avg 34 HR 108 RBIs
With some luck those numbers might prove to be conservative.
*Here are just some random odd stats that show just how strange April is in the big leagues.
Juan Castro is hitting .318. Rondell White is hitting .100.
Carlos Silva's has 1/3 as many walks (3) as he had all last year (9).
Brad Radke, perhaps the worst offensively supported pitcher ever, has a 5.54 ERA, and is 2-0.
And Bronson Arroyo, who had been an American League pitcher his entire career before this year, has 2 homers in 2 starts for Cincy. Barry Bonds is homerless.
Wednesday night Jag-Bombs/Car-Bombs:
4 Jag-Bombs: Tony Batista. He's hitting .292 after a 3-hit night. Cut out the box score.
3 Jag-Bombs: Juan Castro. As mentioned, he's hitting .318. Cut out the box score.
3 Jag-Bombs: Shannon Stewart. Keep it up Stewie.
3 Jag-Bombs: Torii Hunter. If he could face Esteban Loaiza once a week he'd win the MVP.
3 Jag-Bombs: Justin Morneau. Do they dare move him back to the cleanup spot?
2 Jag-Bombs: Joe Nathan. 1-2-3. Nice.
1 Jag-Bomb: Carlos Silva. Another early-inning thud followed by a late flourish. Are these guys warming up properly?
1 Car-Bomb: Carlos Silva. If your fastball is that bad, stop throwing it.
1 Car-Bomb: Rondell White. Dude, I'm fairly confident I could get 3 hits in 30 at-bats.
1 Car-Bomb: Shannon Stewart. You don't get picked off, dude. You just don't.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Jag-Bombs/Car-Bombs

Today I begin another new feature.
The Jag-Bombs (and Car-Bombs).
Based on performance, I will hand out Jag-Bombs to those who are most deserving (played good) and Car-Bombs (played bad...cuz Car-Bombs taste like my ass).
Here are Tuesday night's Jag-Bombs, after the Twins 7-6 win over the A's.
4 Jag-Bombs: Tony Batista - clutch 3-run jack. If he does that with any regularity, I don't give a shit what his OBP is.
4 Jag-Bombs: Joe Mauer - a textbook game at the plate. He's hitting the ball to all fields with authority and running the bases hard. This guy's good.
3 Jag-Bombs: Luis Castillo - another good game at the dish and a few great plays at 2B. This guy might literally be 23 times better than Nick Punto.
2 Jag-Bombs: Joe Nathan - struggled with command somewhat, but he was hitting 98 on the gun, something he never does at this point in the season.
1 Jag-Bomb: Justin Morneau - frozen rope for a dinger - I'm feeling good about his chances to break the 30-HR barrier.
1 Jag-Bomb: Juan Castro - I'm not saying I approve of the decision to demote Jason Bartlett, but there is no way in Hell he makes that play to end the 8th that Castro did.
1 Jag-Bomb: Brad Radke - The second inning was a struggle, and the pitch he threw on Crosby's homer in the third was unforgivable. However he was pretty solid after that.
And now, the Car-Bombs.
3 Car-Bombs: Jesse Crain - Second time already he's come in to a game and served up a 2-run homer. This kid's making me nervous.
2 Car-Bombs: Radke - Come on, dude. When your offense is trying to work out of a slump, you're not helping things by putting them in a 4-0 hole. Knock it off.
1 Car-Bomb: Rondell White - Dude, you're trying waaaay too hard. You're swinging at pitches way out of the zone, and taking pitches right down the middle. Yes, they expect you to have a good year. No, they don't expect you to do everything by yourself.
Chill.

Comin' home at 1-5

While it never ceases to amaze me how impatient baseball fans can be considering the season is 162 games long, I have to say even I am a little disturbed at the Twins 1-5 start.
Mostly because Tony Batista, Jason Kubel and Rondell White have been terrible at the plate.
Batista doesn't really surprise me, but Kubel and especially White are upsetting.
Stewart, Castillo and Mauer are getting on base. The big boppers need to hit. Right now they're not even hitting a little. They're not hitting at all.
Hopefully the homestand will help, although it won't be easy given that they're taking on Oakland and the Yankees.
Considering the first trip through the rotation has been more or less disastrous, I think Radke owes it to everyone to put an end to this crap and throw a shutout tonight.
And if he doesn't, well - the Vikings would still be alive at 1-6, so I don't think the Twins need to panic, what with 155 of these things left.
The best reason for patience is the 1991 Twins, a team that bears a lot of similarities to the 2006 Twins.
Both teams added a few mid-level free-agents in the off-season that the team was excited about, yet most fans and media observers scoffed at.
The '91 Twins lost two out of three in a season opening series at Oakland, then lost seven straight in Seattle and Anaheim to limp home at 2-9.
Just 11 games in and everyone was already looking forward to football season, writing off the Twins as last-place variety once again.
They slowly turned things around, though, and went on a little 15 game winning streak in June.
I still think the Twins can be the best team in the division, although I have to admit Cleveland appears to be an extremely well-rounded team, not the rough-around the edges type of club I expected to see. Jim Thome is off to a blazing start (though the Sox aren't) and the Tigers look like they are in fact ready to contend.
As bad as the bats have been, the Twins pitching is the real culprit. They have to get it together.
My gut says Rondell White is still gonna hit .300, and the lineup is still gonna score 50-75 more runs than they did last year.
It'd be nice if that would start tonight.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

13-4!!!!!!!

Things that did not surprise me in the Twins first two games:
Johan Santana looking fairly crappy.
Brad Radke giving up three runs in the first inning.
Joe Mauer rapping hits to the opposite field.
Jesse Crain giving up a key homerun that cost the Twins a chance to win the opener.
Tony Batista hitting a long homerun.
Things that did surprise me:
Shannon Stewart making like Rickey Henderson in the leadoff spot.
Justin Morneau making the same mistakes at the plate that made him a .239 hitter last year.
Juan Rincon looking great in his first action since last year.
Torii Hunter getting 4 hits and 6 ribs.
Luis Rodriguez going deep oppo!
Francisco Liriano dominating for two innings.
Gardy showing a strong willingness to use his bench.

In summary, the Twins 6-3 loss was a bummer but no shock, considering Johan never pitches well till June and that Roy Halladay owns the Twins.
Their 13-4 win was fun to watch, and at the very least, gives hope that this lineup might not be terrible.
If Shannon Stewart ends up having a big year, that will greatly, greatly improve the Twins chances. It's easy to forget what a huge impact he had on the team in 2003, when he was a .320 hitter.
I'm really encouraged that Gardy has used his bench early and often, and the fact that Torii's hits on Wednesday were to center and right field is a very good sign. At age 30, he could be primed for a career year.
Tonight the Jays will send Ted Lilly, a lefty, to the mound, so expect Michael Cuddyer to get his first start, and possibly Mike Redmond as well.
The 13-4 win doesn't mean much more than the 6-3 loss, but it still made me happy for one night.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Oh yeah, there's five other divisions

The nice thing about the AL Central is that it's far away from the steroid controversy.
I feel bad for Giants fans that just want to watch their team play.
I wish they'd drop the whole investigation. If you didn't want guys taking the juice you should've had a policy for it.
There's testing now, so as long as Bonds or anyone else doesn't get caught from here on out - why bother? It's over and done with.
As for those other five divisions, I don't really give a shit about them, but I'll take a run at 'em anyway.
AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Orioles
4. Blue Jays
5. D-Rays
The Yanks are ancient, but their lineup is loaded, and their pitching might not be as bad as people think. If Curt Schilling can stay healthy, the Red Sox will be right there. With Coco Crisp in CF they won't really miss Johnny Damon. Baltimore is one of my surprise picks. With Leo Mazzone taking over as pitching coach, their young arms could get on track. Watch Daniel Cabrera - he could be a righthanded Johan Santana. Everyone's talking about Toronto but I don't see it. A spending spree doesn't make you a contender overnight.
Tampa will be better, maybe even a lot better. Unfortunately in this division it doesn't matter.
AL West
1. Angels
2. A's
3. Mariners
4. Rangers
Who cares about this division, really. Who stays up late enough to ever watch them?
NL East
1. Braves
2. Mets
3. Phillies
4. Nationals
5. Marlins
The Mets might be a surprise, so might the Phillies. The Marlins will lose at least 110 games. They are an honest to god AAA team.
NL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Astros
4. Pirates
5. Cubs
6. Reds
Cards are the best team in the league. Nice to see the Brewers finally decent again - they could make a run.
The Cubs (have I ever mentioned how much I hate the Cubs) will suck.
Give them credit, though. Sucking is their job and they're good at it.
Seriously, though, why do people always get excited about the Cubs. Wood and Prior are on the DL again. Again. I would't trade Kyle Lohse and Boof Bonser for those two.
NL West
1. Giants
2. Dodgers
3. Padres
4. D-Backs
5. Rockies
Terrible division. Padres won it last year at 82-80. If Bonds can play 120 games and Jason Schmidt gets his Schmidt together the Giants will take it.
AL MVP - Alex Rodriguez
AL CY - Johan Santana
AL ROY - Ken Jojhima, SEA
NL MVP - Albert Pujols
NL CY - Jason Schmidt
NL ROY - Ryan Zimmerman, WAS

Sunday, April 02, 2006

Minnesota Twins 2006 Season Preview


As recently as a month ago, I was convinced that for the first time since 2001 I would pick someone other than the Twins to win the AL Central.
Last year my gut told me that the Twins had too many new and young players, but everyone else in the world was picking them to go the World Series, so I got suckered in.
This year I thought all winter that the White Sox would return as the best team in baseball.
But as spring training has wore on, I just don't have a good feeling about them.
This year, the Sox are the hunted, not the hunter. The Twins on the other hand, are the underdog. And anyone who's followed this team for a lengthy period knows that if there's a role they respond well to, it's that of underdog. I think the Twins will come out on top of a highly competitive American League Central division thanks to the best pitching in the league and an improved offensive attack and improved defense.
This is what I don't get about those who dismiss the Twins as a second division club: They weren't bad last year. They went 83-79. There are a lot of teams that would consider an 83 win season a wild success.
Their pitching, which was great last year, will be even better. Joe Mays is gone, Terry Mulholland is gone, JC Romero is gone. Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano are in, and Brad Radke and Carlos Silva are healthy.
Meaning all they have to do to improve on their 83 wins is add some offense. Not a ton. Just a little.
And I just don't see how even the most pessimistic person could look at the lineup and not think it will be much better this year. Not just because of Rondell White and Luis Castillo.
Think about it.
Do you really think Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau won't have breakout type seasons this year?
Do you think Torii Hunter won't have 25 homers and 25 steals if he doesn't break his ankle again?
Do you really think a RF platoon of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel won't improve on Jacque Jones' .249 average and 23 homers?
Before we get to that, here is a look at the team's opening day 25-man roster:
Starting Lineup:
LF Shannon Stewart
Spring training avg: .261
It's a make or break year (and a contract year) for Stewart. Considering he's a far inferior fielder to Lew Ford, he has to get his ass on base to keep his job. He was hurt most of last year. I'd be shocked if he didn't improve on last year's .274/.323 OBP numbers.
2B Luis Castillo
Spring avg: .356
A gold glove caliber fielder who will get on base a lot. He won't steal 50 bases ever again, but 25 is possible. A huge improvement over Nick Punto/Luis Rivas/Bret Boone.
C Joe Mauer
Spring avg: .362
Might be the best catcher in the game and he's just getting better.
.320 with 20 homers isn't out of the question.
DH Rondell White
Spring avg: .351
Just stay healthy, baby. White is to this team what Chili Davis was to the '91 team. If DH'ing can keep him off the DL, he'll hit .300 with 20 homers.
CF Torii Hunter
Spring avg: .280
Still something of an underachiever at the plate, but he's a consistent producer. As long as he's healthy, and before last year's freak injury he always has been, he'll hit .270 with 25 homers and 25 steals while playing CF as well as anyone in the world. He's also the leader of the clubhouse, something this team needs after last year.
1B Justin Morneau
Spring avg: .375
Might be the most important player in the lineup. There seems to be less pressure on him this year from the fans and media, and with Torii Hunter, Rondell White and Tony Batista surrounding him in the lineup, he doesn't have to feel like the only guy capable of driving in runs. I'm predicting 34 homeruns this season.
RF Michael Cuddyer
Spring avg: .500
He slugged .844 in 32 spring training AB's. That's why he's got the job. But this is it. With Jason Kubel ready to go, this has to be Cuddy's last chance to win a job. There's an outside chance he could hit .280 with 20 homers.
3B Tony Batista
Spring avg: .224
He hit a team-high 4 homers, otherwise his spring performance was unimpressive. He makes me nervous, but he does have power, which at the very least could change the way pitchers approach the guys hitting in front of him.
He will hit at least 30 homers if he stays in the lineup, I just worry that he won't be good enough to do so.
SS Juan Castro
Spring avg: .176
The Twins must be pretty confident in hitters 1-7, because the bottom two are out-making machines. However Castro, who earned the nod when Jason Bartlett was sent to the minors, is excellent with the glove, and the dirty little secret from last year was that the Twins fielding was as bad as it's been since I've been alive.
Bench
OF Lew Ford
An excellent fielder at all 3 spots. Can steal a base, has decent power and can draw a walk. If Shannon Stewart proves to be finished, the Twins could still compete with him in LF.
OF Jason Kubel
Another wild card. Has .300-20 homer potential. If he plays well enough out of the shoot, Ruben Sierra (currently on the DL) might never play a game as a Twin.
IF Nick Punto
Hated, hated, hated him as a starter. As a utility guy he has some upside. He can run, has a little power, is a switch hitter and can play pretty much any position but C-1B.
IF Luis Rodriguez
I really hope he stays on this team. Can play all 4 IF spots, and could probly fill in an OF corner spot if he had to. And he actually has a clue what to do with that wooden stick in his hands. Also a switch-hitter, he had a .338 OBP last year, which is pretty high going by utility IF standards.
C Mike Redmond
One of the best backup catchers in baseball. Gets it done behind the plate, is a terrific clubhouse guy, and hit .311 last year.
Starting Rotation:
LH Johan Santana
The best starter in the game. Period. It would be nice to see him pitch well in April for once, though, especially since the Twins have a difficult early schedule.
RH Brad Radke
Still underrated. Also a slow starter, but maybe the best big-game pitcher the team has had in my lifetime. When you really, really need a quality start, Radke delivers.
RH Carlos Silva
Pitched through an injury last year and still ranked 5th in AL ERA. This year he's healthy. He has the best control in the game, and is also perhaps the game's most economical pitcher. For a No. 3 you can't do better.
RH Kyle Lohse
Went 5-0 with a 2.42 ERA this spring. I'm not expecting him to win the Cy Young or anything, but Twins fans who've hated the guy (you know who you are) should keep an open mind. He may prove to be the best 4th starter in the league.
RH Scott Baker
Very impressive last year, posting a 3.35 ERA in 10 starts. That would've been 5th in the league if he qualified. And he's our fifth starter.
Bullpen
RH Matt Guerrier
An excellent 3.39 ERA last year, but much of it was mop-up duty. I'm pretty confident he'll be fine, and if he's not, there are plenty of options ready to replace him.
LH Francisco Liriano
One of the top two pitching prospects in the game, and I like the fact that they're working him in through the bullpen. Everyone compares him to Santana, and he seemed to benefit from the transition pretty well.
RH Willie Eyre
Has been very reliable in AAA, and at 27, he's ready. He should be fine as a mop-up guy.
RH Jessie Crain
Has been great since getting called up two years ago, but his very low strikeout numbers - he had just 25 K's in 80 innings last year - scare me. Still, he gets it done, and is equally tough against lefties and righties.
RH Juan Rincon
One of the top set-up guys in baseball. With nasty, nasty stuff, he's racked up 200 K's out of the bullpen over the last two years. He could easily be a top-flight closer, and I'd bet he could be a 15-game winner as a starter, too.
RH Joe Nathan
He's the equivalent of Santana in the bullpen, a five-star guy. Usually has one week-long slump where he struggles with command, otherwise his 97-mph fastball and 91-mph slider make him impossible to hit.
Breaking it down
The Twins pitching is gonna be great and the offense will, I think, do the job. Defensively they'll also be better. If you believe in being strong up the middle (I do), you can't do much better than Mauer, Castro-Castillo and Hunter.
Everyone who dismisses the Twins does so because they're not impressed by Tony Batista, Rondell White and Luis Castillo.
They're missing the point.
This team is going to be better because of a healthy Torii Hunter and the emergence of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. Anything the three newcomers add (which I'm guessing will be substantial) is an added bonus.
They also have a nice bench, with Ford and Kubel giving them two good bats.
The Good: Excellent and deep rotation, loaded bullpen, very strong up the middle defensively. Best offensive players are still in the early stages of their careers.
The Bad: Two sub-.300 OBP guys at the bottom of the order, many of the starters could wash out as easily as they could shine.
Best-case scenario: Mauer and Morneau become two of the game's brightest stars, while White, Hunter and Batista each hit 25+ homers. Castro and Castillo are Gold Glove caliber up the middle, while Cuddyer and Kubel combine to far surpass Jacque Jones' production in right.
All five starters finish with an ERA under 4, and the bullpen is baseball's best. Twins win the pennant.
Worst-case scenario: Morneau proves that he's the next Randy Bush, not Kent Hrbek, Hunter, White and Castillo all battle injuries, while Batista is so bad the team turns to Terry Tiffee to play 3rd by June 1st. In a carbon copy of last year, punchless team finishes around .500
Minnesota Twins
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
Offense: B-
Defense: B
Starting Pitching: A
Bullpen: A-
Bench: B
Predicition: 91-71 AL Central Champs