Smith's first deal a risky one

Bill Smith's first significant trade (I'm not going to count the Craig Monroe for a PTBNL deal as significant) is certainly big news, but I don't think anyone can say right now who the deal favors.
The Twins acquired OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie for RHSP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHRP Eduardo Morlan.

The good news is, the closest thing to a proven commodity in this deal is Young. But the reality is that there is so much yet to be determined about this trade, because all of the parties are so young.

If you put the deal in a vacuum, I think it favors the Rays, but considering the Twins' needs and what they already have, there's a good chance that they can look back on this as a good trade.

We'll try to take a closer look at what the Twins got, and what they gave up.
*Delmon Young
He's 22, and was runner-up for the 2007 AL ROY.
He played in all 162 games, and hit .288/.316/.408, with 13 homers, 38 doubles and 93 RBI. He stole 10 bases and struck out 127 times.
Those numbers (an OPS+ of 91) are certainly unspectacular, but they're a big upgrade for the Twins, and hey, he was 21. Considering most 21 year-olds are in Double-A, the numbers look pretty good. He put up monster numbers in the minors, and his throwing arm has drawn comparisons to Raul Mondesi and Jesse Barfield.

Of course, this is the guy who threw a bat at an umpire, drawing a 50-game suspension, and who got into a shouting match with his manager last year when he failed to run out a groundball.
For what it's worth, he told a Tampa reporter after hearing of the trade that he was "excited" and would "bring 100 percent effort" to the Twins.

Young played some CF for the Rays, but since the Twins are still pushing for a CF in any Johan Santana deal, they apparently want to put Young in LF. That's fine with me. That will allow Jason Kubel to be primarily a DH. It would be nice to have an actual DH, instead of treating it like a left over spot in the lineup.
There's a good chance the Twins will release Monroe rather than sign him, but hopefully they can work something out, because he'd make a nice righty/lefty platoon at DH and backup OF with Kubel.

Whether Young plays CF or not, he has essentially taken Torii Hunter's spot in the lineup, and Young, when age, salary and upside are factored in, is a giant upgrade over Hunter.
That's the best part of this trade.

*Brendan Harris
This is where it gets iffy.
In 2007, Harris was a better player than Bartlett. He hit .286/.343/.434, with 12 homers, 35 doubles and 59 RBI in 137 games for the Rays. He played 87 of those games at SS.
That in itself is good news. He was a damn good hitter. Much better than Bartlett.
But prior to '07, he was a middling prospect. He opened the season as a utility player, and got the SS job when Ben Zobrist got hurt.
Harris, 27, has a nice minor league track record, with a .294/.365/.458 line in over 2,500 at-bats, but he's already bounced between the Cubs, Expos, Reds and Nationals organizations.
Was '07 a fluke? Or is he really a good player? The Rays were actively pursuing Bartlett, so they must not have been comfortable that Harris could be their long-term answer at SS.
Certainly it's possible that the Twins don't either. Maybe they'll put him at 2B or 3B, and let Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla duke it out for the SS job.
Harris could be an excellent pickup for the Twins, but he could also end up being another Pat Meares.

*OF Jason Pridie
If the name is familiar, that's because Pridie was with the Twins in spring training in 2006 as a Rule V pickup. He didn't make the team, so the Twins had to give him back to the Rays.
He'd shown a nice mix of speed and power in his first few minor-league seasons, but not much of a knack for getting on base.
That changed somewhat this year, as he's coming off his best minor-league season.
He started at Double-A, where he hit .290/.331/.441 with 23 XB hits and 14 steals in 71 games, before getting called up to Triple-A, where he hit .318/.375/.539 in 63 games, with 10 homers and 12 steals.
The Strib said he isn't expected to be a candidate for a starting spot, another signal that they expect to find another CF.
But the idea that someone as good as Pridie, 24, isn't good enough to crack the Twins lineup means things are getting better.
Also, Jason Tyner fans, there ain't gonna be enough room on this team for Tyner, Monroe and Pridie. Something's gonna have to give.

As for who the Twins gave up...

*Matt Garza
Just turned 24, and is coming off a nice sophomore season.
After posting a 2.88 ERA in 53 minor-league starts, Garza was much improved in his second big-league stint last year.
A 3.69 ERA in 13 starts, with 67 Ks and 32 walks in 83 innings. He allowed 96 hits, but only 8 homers.
Make no mistake, Garza has ace-potential, meaning that when the Twins trade Santana, they're left with no No.1 starter, unless you consider Francisco Liriano an ace.
With Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Garza, the Rays have some pretty good young starters all of a sudden.

*Jason Bartlett
The 28-year old Bartlett had a good second half in '07, which is overshadowed by his underwhelming overall numbers (.265/.339/.361 with 20 doubles and 5 HR in 140 games).
He stole 23 bases in 26 attempts, and while committing a few too many errors, showed excellent range and athleticism in the field.
Harris was better in '07. But does Bartlett have the bigger upside?

*Eduardo Morlan
Morlan is a highly regarded prospect, with a high 90's fastball and a good slider. The 21-year old had 18 saves, a 3.15 ERA and 92 Ks in 65 innings at Single-A Fort Myers last year.
It's no wonder the Rays held out for Morlan over the deteriorating Juan Rincon, which is too bad for the Twins.
On the other hand, the Twins bullpen could be thinned out if Joe Nathan is traded. Pat Neshek was overworked last year, and Jesse Crain is coming off a serious injury. So it might be worth it for the Twins to try and get Rincon back on track, though I'm not optimistic it can happen.

Bottom line, it could be years before we know who gets the best of this trade.
I'm surprised the Twins had the balls to trade Garza, but even if they end up regretting that, it's a good sign to see the new GM being proactive. Terry Ryan's fear of activity is the reason the Twins were bad in 2005 and '07, and also the reason they've lost Hunter and likely Santana.
Both teams traded from a strength to improve weakness, and that's what trades are supposed to be about.

*The Red Sox are apparently strong players in the Johan sweepstakes, which is great news for the Twins. Pitting the Sox against the Yanks is the best way for the Twins to drive up the price.
The Twins are insisting on Jacoby Ellsbury and either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz.
Ellsbury was a stud down the stretch this year, but his minor league numbers aren't that impressive. Still, he's seen by most as a future star. Better than the Yanks' Melky Cabrera almost certain.
But with Garza gone, the Twins now need to get a top-flight pitching prospect for Johan, and I like the Yanks' Phil Hughes a lot more than either Buchholz or Lester.
Gut feeling: Twins send Johan to the Yankees for Cabrera, Hughes and an additional, second-tier prospect.

Report: Twins to send Garza, Bartlett to Rays

Here's the early reports on the deal, from the Strib's LaVelle E. Neal III.

Tampa gets: P Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, RP Juan Rincon

Twins get: OF Delmon Young, SS Brendan Harris, OF Jason Pridie

Garza, 24, is the logical candidate to be the Twins No. 1 starter assuming Johan Santana is traded.
He was pretty good last year after starting the year in AAA, going 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA in 15 starts.
In 83 IP, he allowed 96 hits while striking out 67 and walking 32. He allowed only 8 homeruns.

Bartlett, 28, rebounded from a slow start last year, finishing the season with a .265/.339/.361 line, after hitting .309/.367/.393 in 99 games in '06.
Bartlett stole 23 bases in 26 attempts, and seemed to be a good candidate to bat leadoff next year. However, in 140 games, he had only 20 doubles and five homers.

Juan Rincon was arguably the most dominant setup man in team history from 2003-2006, posting ERA's of 2.63, 2.45 and 2.91 while shouldering an enormous workload and always being asked to pitch in tough jams against the best hitters. You could argue he was the most vaulable pitcher on the roster at times.
But steroids may have been a factor, and last year he fell off a cliff, posting a 5.13 ERA.
You wouldn't think he'd be missed, but with Joe Nathan possibly on his way out, and Jesse Crain coming back from a major injury, he'll need to be replaced.

Young, 22, is one of the top hitting prospects in the game. He hit .288/.316/.408 last year, with 13 homers, 38 doubles, 10 steals and 93 RBI while playing in all 162 games. Those numbers are good, not great, but he was only 21. He has a huge upside, and could actually be a better offensive player than Torii Hunter. He played mostly RF for Tampa, but will almost certainly be the Twins CF (assuming this deal goes through).

Harris, 27, went from a middling prospect to a solid everyday SS last year. After hitting .294/.365/.458 in 2,544 career minor league ABs, he hit .286/.343/.434 in 137 games for the Rays last year. He has a lot more pop than Bartlett, but not as much speed, and is probably a slight downgrade defensively.

Pridie, 24, would be an upgrade on Lew Ford/Jason Tyner as a backup OF. He hit .318/.375/.539 in 63 games at Triple-A last year.

More Rumors

It's gonna stay interesting for the next couple weeks.
Reports out of Boston say the Twins have stepped up their efforts to acquire Coco Crisp to replace Torii Hunter. Haven't heard much about what the Sox might be looking for in return (how about Juan Rincon?).

A rumor circulating around Anaheim is that the Twins and Angels have discussed a Justin Morneau for Ervin Santana and Casey Kotchman deal.
Kotchman is similar to Mark Grace, and Santana is a promising 24-year old power pitcher, but seriously, just how much can fans be expected to tolerate?
The good news is, I don't think there's anything to it.

Another rumor making the rounds is that Boof Bonser, a Tampa Bay native, has been telling friends in Tampa that he is soon going to be traded to the D-Rays, with Delmon Young the focal point of the deal. I doubt the D-Rays would give up someone like Young for just Boof, so you'd have to assume there would be another piece to the deal.

And the Strib reports that the Twins are considering trading Joe Nathan as well as Johan Santana.
Wouldn't be a bad move, because the price of closers is going up, and closers are overrated. Incidentally, I think Boof is the best in-house candidate to take over as closer if Nathan is traded, so it'll be interesting to see if they both go.
Obviously Pat Neshek would be fine as a closer, but you need middle relievers, too.

Cy-Onara

Don't fight it. Don't hold out hope.
Get used to it. Johan Santana will be traded.
Almost certainly this off-season, perhaps in the next two weeks. And if not, before the July 31 trading deadline. But probably before Christmas.

And here's the thing: The Twins would be retards not to do it.
Here's why:
*Santana, at 29, is supposedly in his prime. I would argue that his prime was 2003-2006, but then again, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and countless other pitchers had their best years in their 30s, so who knows.
Teams can be reasonably sure that Santana will be an elite starter for another 5 years at least, maybe 7-10. He's an innings eater, a Gold Glover, he's never been on the DL, and the Twins have saved the wear on his arm by limiting him to 100 pitches almost his whole career. Meaning....

*His value will never be higher. The free-agent market is incredibly thin, with Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse the best ones out there. If the Twins are going to move him, now is the time. Critics of the T-Wolves have said they traded Kevin Garnett two years too late.
I'm not sure I agree with that, but here's a chance for the Twins to avoid making the same mistake. And.....

*It might be the perfect time to get rid of him.
While Santana's 2007 season was far from bad (in fact it was pretty awesome), he did see his ERA go up a half a run to 3.33, and he gave up an alarming amount of homers (33). Even when he was on, he seemed less dominant (except for that 17-strikeout game, admittedly).
I'm not saying he's on the decline or anything, but I do think it's fair to wonder if his best days are behind him. Is he really going to get better?
He may continue to be an elite starter, but I doubt he'll get better. His fastball has lost a little velocity, and scouts have noted a reluctance to use his slider.
And.....

*They can get something for him.
Now, if Santana had another 2 or 3 years on his deal, the Twins would be able to demand a King's ransom for him. We're talking robbery of the AJ for Boof-Liriano-Nathan variety.
But because he's only got one more year, has a no-trade clause, and expects an extension in the $120-$150 million range, teams are going to be leery to give up too much.
That's unfortunate, but it shouldn't mean the Twins will have to settle for a lowball offer.
In fact, my guess is the Twins will be able to pit the suitors against one another, causing somebody to panic and overpay.
If the Angels, a team with a surplus of outfielders and a swelling payroll, were willing to give Torii Hunter $90 million, I'm willing to bet somebody is going to pull out all the stops to get Johan.

*They have pitching.
Even without Santana, the Twins have the following pitchers to compete for the rotation.
Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins, with scores of other blue-chip prospects in the minors.
A front four of Liriano, Garza, Baker and Slowey could be pretty good.
The Twins need offense, and Santana can help them get some.


So what are we lookin' at?
Well, here are some teams and some names.

First, here are guys I would consider trading Johan for straight up.

Jose Reyes, Mets shortstop, age 24
One of the game's most electric players, I've yet to see any confirmed report that Reyes is off-limits.
He led the Majors with 78 steals, and hit .280/.354/.421. He had 36 doubles, 12 triples and 12 homers, and in '06, hit .300 with 30 doubles, 17 triples and 19 homers.
The Twins would likely move Jason Barlett to 2B if Reyes came aboard.
The Mets are the team most likely to overpay, as their GM, Omar Minaya, is desperate to make a big splash for a starter.

Robinson Cano, Yankees 2B - age 24
He narrowly lost out to Joe Mauer for the '06 batting title, hitting .342/.365/.525, and after a slow start, followed that up in '07 with a .306/.353/.488 line, with 19 homers, 97 RBI. 41 doubles and 7 triples.
Obviously, he's a stud, maybe the best 2B in the game.
Some media outlets have reported that Cano is off-limits, but if the Yanks could get Santana while holding on to Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, I think they'd do it.

Matt Kemp, Dodgers OF, age 23
At the age of 22, Kemp hit .342/.373/.521 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 98 games for the Dodgers.
A big, strong, fast country boy from Oklahoma, there are obvious comparisons to Mickey Mantle. They might not be far off.
Would the Dodgers do it? Well, their GM, Ned Coletti, is a renowned idiot, so I think he might.

If none of those guys becomes available, I think the most likely scenario is the Yankees offering Cabrera and either Hughes or Kennedy.
Hughes is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, while Cabrera has batted .275 in over 1,000 at-bats with decent speed and power, and he's only 23. The Yanks would certainly try to get the Twins to settle for Kennedy over Hughes, but there's a decent drop-off between those two.

The Mets have several top prospects to dangle, in pitcher Mike Pelfrey and outfielders Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.
Martinez is 19 and unproven, though very highly regarded. Gomez is a 22-year old speed merchant who debuted with the Mets this year, and has a pedestrian 772 career OPS in the minors.
Milledge hit .272 in 59 games with the Mets this year, and the 22-year old has an 864 career minor league OPS.
Pelfrey is a 6-foot-7, 23-year old, righthanded, first round draft pick out of Wichita St. who pitched well in limited minor league experience before getting called up. He posted a 5.57 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 13 starts for the Mets.
I think the Twins would have to expect at least three of these guys for Santana, as it's debatable whether any of them are major-league ready.

The Red Sox could become players, with Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Coco Crisp being candidates (Jacoby Ellsbury would almost have to be a 1-for-1, and he's not worth it), but I don't see them becoming serious players. The Sox already have a lot of pitching, and they don't have much offense to offer the Twins.

If Ned Coletti is even stupider than I think he is, the Twins could maybe get him to throw in Chad Billingsley (12-5, 3.31 ERA, 141 Ks in 147 IP for LA this year) with Kemp, in what would be a lopsided deal for the Twins.

The other most often mentioned candidate is the Angels, who could offer CF Reggie Willits (.293/.391, 27 steals), SS Brandon Wood (91 homers in 3 minor league seasons), 2B Howie Kendrick (.322, 5 HR), IF Erick Aybar (.311 career minor league average) or P Nick Adenhart (3.65 ERA in Double-A).
A package of Willits, either Kendrick or Wood, and Adenhart would be OK.

Of course, there could always be a dark horse to swoop in.
But wherever Santana ends up, there's reason to be optimistic the Twins will be a better team (in the long run at least) once the deal goes down.

Torii: Angel in the Outfield

Kirby Puckett played his last game as a Twin in 1995.
In 1996, Rich Becker hit .291/.372/.434 with 12 homers, 71 RBI and 19 SB while playing pretty good defense in CF. But Becker went back in the tank in '97, and the Twins turned to 39-year old Otis Nixon to man the spot in 1998. Nixon hit .297 and stole 37 bases, but the Twins decided they were ready to hand CF to Torii Hunter in 1999.
Hunter was a below-average hitter and fielder for two years as he tried to learn on the job, but by 2001 he had transformed himself into a power-speed guy who was without a doubt the best defensive CF the team had ever had, far better than even Puckett.

So for the next seven years we watched Torii produce something close to a .270 average with around 25 HR, 90 RBI and 20 SB. He didn't strike out a whole lot for a guy with those kind of numbers, but he also didn't put up much of an OBP, and he hit into a ton of double-plays.
For many Twins fans, Torii's offense was regarded more for what it didn't produce than what it did, as his penchant for trying to pull pitches two feet outside and grounding them to short became legendary.
But in 2007, the rest of the Twins offense was so bad, historically bad, that Hunter was now considered an elite hitter. He hit .290 with 28 HR and 107 RBI, which is very good.
But the dread that surrounds his departure is no doubt based more on the crap the Twins have left over than the actual value that is lost with Hunter.

None of which is to say Hunter won't be missed. He's on a very short list with Puckett, Scott Erickson, Chuck Knoblauch (before the Yankee debacle) and Brad Radke as my favorite all-time Twins. He was a likable guy, and he always, always played hard. At age 32, he probably is bound for a big year with the Angels, and playing on grass for a whole year will be hugely beneficial to him.
I also know I am not alone in being very happy to see Hunter not sign with the White Sox, or Royals, or Yankees, or Red Sox.

Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times had this to say about the Sox and Torii. I know it made me smile: "Consider this the latest significant setback in a bloody, 17-month Sox slide, which includes a 109-135 record since early July of 2006. This is more confirmation that a star like Hunter, who fled Minnesota with the aim of winning a championship, thinks he has a better chance of achieving those goals in Anaheim than on the South Side.
More and more, it's becoming obvious that baseball people view 2005 as an aberration for the Sox, a championship that won't happen again anytime soon. The Angels have sustained a consistently high level since their World Series triumph five years ago, primarily because they have an elite manager in Mike Scioscia and a title-driven owner in Arte Moreno. The Sox have a ditzy manager in Ozzie Guillen and an owner who likes to win but only at his price, though Reinsdorf has no problem charging top dollar at The Cell."

Sadly, that last line could be about the Twins, too.

The Twins did the right thing, here, if you can believe it. Anything more than the 3-year, $45 million the Twins offered would've been potential suicide for a team on a budget.
No one wants to be stuck paying Hunter $18 million when he's 37 years old and hitting .244 with 11 homers as a right fielder.
Which includes Angels fans, apparently.
This is from an Angel fan on the blog Obscure Sports Quarterly: "I am beyond trying to understand the Angels. Last year, they pay $50 million over 5 years to an overrated center-fielder coming off a career year (Gary Matthews). This year, they pay $90 million over five years to a slightly better overrated CF coming off of a career year. WTF? Thats $140 million of waste. And this team is still paying good money to Garrett Anderson! I’m not saying Hunter won’t be a good player for the Angels this year- he probably will. Actually, he probably makes the team a little bit better. What is frustrating to me is that if they did not have Anderson, Matthews, or Hunter, their outfield of Rivera, Willits, Guerrero would be almost just as good."

And this is from Larry Brown Sports, another blog: "Under no circumstance can I envision the Angels spending $90 million on Torii Hunter being a good deal. The reason why it caught everyone off-guard, Hunter included, is because the Angels grossly overpaid, and because Hunter probably never dreamed he would get that much. The Twins supposedly offered 3 years for $45, while the White Sox supposedly offered 5 for $75. That’s about right. I thought, and still believe, that Hunter is only worth around 5 for $65.

So what makes this deal so horrible? First of all, the Angels have set the free agent market extremely high, screwing many other teams, themselves included, for the future. Now Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, and Mike Cameron are probably going to cost a million or two more per year because of the Angels. When the Angels need to re-sign players, or go after other players, Hunter’s contract will be a future benchmark. If I were another GM, I’d be pissed the Angels inflated the market. When Ichiro was extended during the season this year, what’d he get? 5 years for $90 million. Sorry to say it, but Hunter is nowhere near as good as Ichiro, meaning the Angels had no business having Hunter’s contract match Ichiro’s.

Second of all, the Angels now have $130 million, and around $28 million annually allotted for two center fielders. That’s absurd. I can think of hundreds of ways to better spend $130 million. All those rumors about the Angels going after A-Rod? Even as the most expensive player in baseball at $27 million a year, pair him with any guy making the minimum and it’s still better value than Matthews plus Hunter.

Third, it’s like the Angels are just trying to appease the media. Media members say the Angels need a bat to protect Vlad in the order. Sure, sounds great. But one good bat isn’t enough to protect Vlad; they need another top 10 bat to properly protect Vlad. Hunter couldn’t even protect Morneau and Mauer. He batted behind Michael Cuddyer in Minnesota. Yet he’s supposed to protect Vlad? Give me a break. Even with $90 million on Hunter, the Angels still don’t have as good an offense as Boston, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, or probably Seattle and Toronto.

The Angels covered one mistake (Matthews) with an even bigger mistake. I seriously wonder whether or not Juan Rivera wouldn’t match Hunter’s offensive production on his own. Matthews is probably as good in center as Hunter, or at least close to it, so what are you really gaining? Now there’s a huge log jam in the outfield that will probably be sorted out by trades. But it doesn’t change that the Angels overpaid Hunter, screwing up the market. People ask me why I care, arguing that it’s not my money. Well, I am a forward thinker. If the Angels have $90 million tied up to Torii, how will they afford to re-sign Miguel Cabrera should they acquire him, and how will they re-sign Franky Rodriguez when he comes up, John Lackey when he comes up, and same with Escobar?"

Feel better? I do, but only a little.
Because the Twins, or more specifically Terry Ryan, could've avoided all of this.
They had a chance to sign Torii to an extension after 2006, but decided to just pick up his $12 option. According to the Strib, Hunter was looking for a 5-year, $65 extension at that time. So the Twins would have Torii for another four years for about $13 million a year instead of being forced to pay him for five at $18 million.
Oops.
Same deal with Johan Santana. Last year he was looking for a 5-year, $100 extension. Did Ryan really think he was going to get cheaper? The Twins just offered him a 5-year, $93 deal, but it's a year too late. While that offer would've probably been close enough to get something done then, now it's not even close. Apparently Santana is looking for more years and more money.
He will be traded.

And don't forget Justin Morneau. The Twins were close to an extension this past offseason, and they ended up not getting the deal done. After Morneau put up another 30-homer, 100-RBI season, he'll obviously be much more expensive than he would've been if the Twins had just given him what he asked for this spring.
You wonder: At what point do the Twins learn a lesson from failing to sign these guys before they play themselves into the contract stratosphere, and actually try to get pro-active?
They still have another chance with Morneau, as well as Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer. Hopefully Bill Smith has learned from Ryan's mistakes.

As for the near future, the Twins will try something similar to when they brought in Nixon in '98, like Kenny Lofton. They could also trade for a Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, or one of the extra OF's the Angles now have. Or maybe they'll shock the world and sign Rowand.
Hey, I can dream, right?

Torii will be missed greatly, and the Angels will be a better team in the short-term.
As for the Twins, things have only begun to get interesting.

Monroe - B.F.D.

When the Tigers traded Craig Monroe to the Cubs last year, many Twins fans rejoiced, because, of course, he absolutely killed Twins pitching.
Like Joe Orsulak, Lance Johnson, Edgar Martinez and Jim Thome, he was a guy that never made an out in the Dome. Or so it seemed.

But the reason the Tigers traded Monroe is that his career appeared to be in steep decline (he seemed to confirm that by stinking it up in Chicago).

Now the Twins have picked him up from the Cubs for a PTBNL.
Many Twins fans have already reacted with shock and horror, comparing Monroe to Tony Batista, another washed up veteran the Twins took an ill-advised flier on.

Monroe could very well be another Batista, but there's an important distinction to be made here. Monroe, who hit .222 with 12 homers this year after three relatively productive seasons in 2004-06, is up for arbitration Dec. 1.
The Twins will try to sign him to a cheap contract (he made $4.75 million last year) in the meantime. If they can't, and indications are that Monroe will be open to a cheap deal in light of his poor '07 performance, they'll cut him loose, and they won't have to send the PTBNL to the Cubs. So basically they've bought themselves a window to have exclusive negotiating rights to him.

It's doubtful the Twins look at Monroe as an everyday player, and it's doubtful they'll allow him to take them to arbitration if they can't work something out.

There is, I suppose, a slim chance Monroe could return to form, and if so this could be a steal for the Twins. Maybe his track record in the Dome will come into play. Even if he doesn't return to form, he can be a decent 4th OF (especially if the platoon-allergic Ron Gardenhire limits him to playing against lefties, who he hits well), and I have stressed several times that the Twins need to address their bench as badly as they need to address their lineup. This would be a nice step in that direction.

Ultimately, this isn't a major transaction. I think it's Bill Smith dipping his toe in the water.

Bottom line: If Monroe is replacing Lew Ford/Rondell White, I'm cool with it. And he's a close friend of Torii Hunter's, so maybe they're trying to make it harder for Torii to leave.
But if Monroe's coming in at $5 million, or to play everyday, Smith is off to a bad start.

Easy, Tiger

We have wondered if Bill Smith would be a more risk-taking, pro-active general manager than Terry Ryan, especially as an off-season of incredible importance kicks off.
He has done nothing yet, but it sounds like the answer is yes.

While I've written extensively that there are plenty of affordable free-agent hitters on the market this off-season, Smith is apparently targeting some higher caliber players via trade, as the Strib reported last week that the Twins are interested in Tampa Bay's BJ Upton and Delmon Young. The article indicated the Twins would be open to moving Matt Garza for a top-shelf hitter.

I'd love to have BJ Upton or Delmon Young, but with the likelihood of keeping Johan Santana long-term getting slimmer, I'm not so sure that trading Garza, the only healthy Twins starter with ace potential, is a good idea.

So apparently now we should worry about the Twins GM being too aggressive. Slow down, Billy Boy.

*SI.com reports that the Twins still insist they won't trade Santana, but that everyone else believes they'll eventually relent. The Mets are mentioned as a suitor, and supposedly the Twins would insist on Jose Reyes in return. I'd damn near be up for that deal straight up.

*You know it's bad when a Vikings game bring back memories of the ol' 41-doughnut we all remember so well. That's what happened Sunday. Brad Childress must've just expected AD to rush for another 296 yards, because he didn't seem to bother with an actual gameplan. Brooks Bollinger looked decent in two relief appearances, so then they start him and don't let him throw the ball downfield. Terrible.
And you know what else? The Vikings offense is bad, but the defense isn't much better. Viking fans are so used to bad (really bad) defenses, that they've convinced themselves this one is good.
It isn't. It may be good enough to win with a decent offense, but it's nowhere near the top of the league.

Coo Coo for Coco Crisp?

It's sounding more and more like GM Bill Smith is prepared to part ways with Torii Hunter, though I'll still leave about a 10% chance of him returning.
Smith's thinking might be that there are so many CF options available this year that the team would be better served by signing a modestly priced replacement and using the leftover money that would've gone to signing Hunter for trying to find a 3B/DH/OF.
The Strib reported this week that the Twins have contacted the Red Sox about Coco Crisp, who the Sox are prepared to part with to make room for Jacoby Ellsbury.

I'd be OK with the Twins acquiring Crisp for a second-tier prospect (perhaps a Jay Rainville or Anthony Swarzak).
You could argue that Crisp, who will be 28 on opening day, is better defensively than Hunter right now, and he could be the Twins best option for the leadoff spot (assuming they never give Joe Mauer a shot there).
There's a problem, though.
After two great years in Cleveland (.297/.344/.446 and .300/.345/.465), Crisp had two sub-par years (at the plate) in Boston as Johnny Damon's replacement (.264/.317/.385, and .268/.330/.382). He did steal 50 bases in 60 attempts over those two years while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.
At 27, it's reasonable to think he can still get back on track. Some have suggested the glare of the Boston media was a factor in his struggles. That stuff always seems like BS to me, but who knows.
The Twins could do a lot worse than Coco Crisp - like Darin Erstad, Jacque Jones, Jason Tyner, Denard Span, etc.

*The Twins maintain that they remain interested in re-signing Carlos Silva, but I think that's just to give their veterans the appearance that they tried. Silva is, at the moment, the top free-agent starter on the market. He could be this year's Gil Meche - a slightly-above average veteran who someone will overpay for. Meche, you may remember, got $55 million over 5 years from KC. Silva could get a similar offer. Seriously.
In a related note, the fact that Silva and Kyle Lohse are probably the top two free-agent starters available is causing teams around the league to turn up the heat on making offers to the Twins for Johan Santana.

Now. The Twins are in no hurry to trade baseball's best starter. But believe me, they will listen to offers, and they should. Santana's value is higher now than it will ever be. That's when you trade a superstar.
But I don't know if anyone out there is willing to give the Twins the two or perhaps even three major league-ready position players they would probably seek in a deal. A three-team deal might be the only way it happens.

OF Geoff Jenkins, OF/DH Jose Guillen and OF Cliff Floyd all had their team options declined. They are available. They can hit and should be cheap. Guillen's name has popped up in steroid rumors, however.

Who needs KG or Torii? We've got AD.

It's been easy to ignore the Vikes this year, but with Adrian Peterson running like this, I'm busy on Sunday the rest of the year.
Here's a Twinstown column that may appear in a local paper this week:

Sunday’s Colts-Patriots tilt had the TV talking heads falling all over themselves for hyperbole, with “Game of the Century” getting bandied about rather liberally.
But soon those same sputtering suits were spitting all over themselves for a different reason.
Vikings running back Adrian Peterson had upstaged the game of the century with the performance of a lifetime, rushing for an NFL record 296 yards, leading the Vikings to a shocking 35-17 win over heavily-favored San Diego.
This was a banner weekend in the NFL - besides Colt-Patriots, there was Brett Favre continuing to lead the Packers to an improbable run towards the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the Lions proving they’re for real by slaughtering Denver, Drew Brees throwing for nearly 500 yards in the continued resurgence of the previously left-for-dead Saints.
But Peterson was the day’s biggest story.
Going against a defense that featured notable run-stuffers Jamal Williams and Shawne Merriman, Peterson was simply unstoppable. He was untacklable, he always fell forward for extra yardage, he beat the angles to the edge, he cut back, he stayed in bounds, he put his head down and ran through the second level. It was a thing of beauty, coming from a team that has had a virtual monopoly on ugly for most of the year.
Suddenly the previously unwatchable Vikings are must-see TV, for no other reason than No. 28.
No doubt there were observers who spent much of Sunday’s game yelling at their TV screens that if Peterson had been getting 30 carries a game all year long, the Vikings might have a better record than their current 3-5 standing.
Perhaps, but this is where a word of caution should be offered amidst the AD love.
Running backs are the most precious commodity in the NFL. The average running back’s career lasts 3.2 years. Most likely the Vikings hope to get more than 3.2 years out of Peterson.
You don’t have to look far to find a cautionary tale. Kansas City’s Larry Johnson carried the ball 750 times for over 3,500 yards in 2005-2006, and finds himself struggling this year, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry at age 27. It could be just an off year, but many are wondering if he’s already lost a step.
Earl Campbell was a bulldozer as the Houston Oilers’ main weapon in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s, but overuse shortened his career considerably, and today he’s in a wheelchair.
For every Curtis Martin or Emmitt Smith, there are a dozen Preist Holmes‘ or Neal Anderson‘s, guys who break down after 1,000 or so punishing carries.
And Peterson, who’s currently averaging a ridiculous 6.6 yards per attempt, with 1,036 yards on 158 carries through eight games, faced questions about his durability before he was even drafted, due to his upright running style and once-broken collarbone.
This Vikings team has a promising future, especially if it can ever field a competent quarterback (Brooks Bollinger looks like the best one on the roster right now, for what it’s worth), but it’s not going to the playoffs this year.
The hope here is that coach Brad Childress doesn’t give in to outside pressures that insist Peterson touch the ball 30 times every week. Chester Taylor is a very good back, and keeping him in the rotation is the right move. It could significantly prolong the career of a guy who has a chance to be the best player in franchise history.
And there’s one other thing to keep in mind. If Peterson keeps going like this, he’s going to end up on the cover of next year’s Madden video game, and nobody wants that.