Johan Gone?

Ever since Barry Zito signed a super-huge contract with the Giants for $18 million a year, Twins fans all over have already begun counting down the days until Johan Santana is wearing Yankee pinstripes (note the razor sharp photo-shop work in the photo.)
It's stupid.
I see the logic, with people correctly assuming that since Zito gets that much, and since Santana is much better than Zito, that Johan will cost $20 million a year, and therefore become too expensive and either leave via free-agency or be traded for prospects.
Here's the thing, though.
The Twins are a small-market team, yes, but they've actually never had difficulty holding onto players.
Players like Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones, Eric Milton, Chuck Knoblauch, Cristian Guzman, LaTroy Hawkins, Eddie Guardado, AJ Pierzynski, Matt Lawton and many others moved on, but it was because the Twins either had someone else ready to replace them or because they felt they could do better cheaper.

In recent years there have been only a handful of instances where the Twins faced the prospect of being unable to afford a franchise player, and they managed to step up and pay all of them.
Kirby Puckett was one of baseball's top players, and the Twins twice gave him mega-deals to keep him. They signed him to a 3 year-9 million deal that made him baseball's highest paid-player in 1991, then signed him to a 5 year-$30 million deal (also among the most expensive at the time) to keep him in Minny until his retirement.
Chuck Knoblauch appeared destined to leave via free-agency, until the Twins signed him to a 6 year-$30 million deal in 1996 (they ended up trading him to the Yanks anyway, for Milton, Guzman and Brian Buchanan).
In 2000 Brad Radke had a big pay-day coming up, and Twins fans moaned and wailed that we'd never be able to afford him. The Twins signed him to a 4 year, $36 million deal.
And after this past season, Torii Hunter had a $12 million option that had to be picked up to keep him here, and despite Hunter's obvious defensive decline, they did so.

So why would anyone think they won't do the same for Johan?
If they can give Torii $12 million they can certainly give Johan $20 million. The Twins payroll will never rival that of the Yankees, but it has gone up every year since 2001, and if the Twins are smart (and they are) they'll realize that committing a large portion of their payroll to Santana, Mauer, Morneau and Jason Bartlett is a sound decision. Santana is signed through 2008, and by 2009, the Twins payroll might be approaching $100 million just through natural inflation alone.
Plus, the new stadium will be ready in 2010, so the Twins might be able to 'borrow' some money against the funds that will start coming in that year.

The Twins fiscal situation means that many solid, second-tier players (the Koskie's, Pierzynski's and Milton's) will likely only spend one contract with the Twins.
But it doesn't mean the superstars will be unaffordable.

The Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox and other teams could and certainly will offer Johan more money than the Twins, but I'd bet the Twins will be able to make him an offer that's of fair market value.

He could end up in pinstripes by 2009, but the idea that his leaving Minnesota is a foregone conclusion is preposterous.