163

Well, don’t blame the Tigers.
I mean I guess you can blame them for getting their butts kicked, but don’t say they didn’t try to win. Jim Leyland brought in his best starting pitcher out of the bullpen when Freddy Garcia (who pitched well enough to ensure he’ll have a job next spring)got hurt. He used four different pitchers in the 6th inning.
They just lost. As was the case all year, the Tiger bats that everyone thought would form such a dominating lineup, came up short.

So now the Twins have to go into their personal house of horrors (actually, you could say that about almost any stadium in the AL) and try to win.
It’s a unique situation for the White Sox, who will be playing their third different opponent in three days. They’re 2-for-2. Can they make it 3?

I’ve bitched about the individual losses all year long. Part of what makes baseball great is the ‘game-every-day’ mentality. The ability to shrug off a loss, because there’s always tomorrow. And I think a good manager (and yes, I’m counting Ron Gardenhire in that department) creates an environment where his players don’t ever get too up or too down. That’s how you survive a long season.
But in the back of your mind, you have to be aware of the fact that the race could come down to one game. There have been a lot of ugly losses that didn’t need to be. Against the Royals, against the Blue Jays, against the Mariners.
Remember Jason Pridie bobbling that base hit in his major league debut? If he fields it cleanly, the Twins are AL Central champs right now.
Taking losses in stride is fine, in fact, it’s what you should do. But not playing every game like it’s the most important one of the year is a mistake. This year, more than any, should be a lesson of that. You do everything you can to win every game every single night.
I’m not saying the Twins didn’t do that. But you have to wonder if, early in the year, the Twins put development over winning simply because they didn’t expect to be here.
And make no mistake, Gardy didn’t expect to be here. I think he thought the Twins were capable of winning 88 games, but there’s no way he (or anyone else) thought the Indians and Tigers would both fail to win that many.

So what’ve we got here today? The Twins were 2-7 at the Cell this year.
Nick Blackburn is on the bump. Of the Twins five starters, it’d be a toss-up between Blackburn and Glen Perkins as far as which one I wouldn’t want on the mound in such a big game. But they really have no choice.
Kevin Slowey is hurting. Francisco Liriano is coming off a bad start, and using him on three days rest in his first year after surgery is probably a bad idea.
For the year, Blackburn is 11-10 with a 4.14 ERA. He’s the only Twins starter to take every one of his turns in the rotation, and leads the team with 187 innings. He’s been valuable to the team, no doubt, but he hasn’t been as good as his numbers might indicate.
In those 187 innings, he’s allowed 220 hits. Opponents have hit .295/.332/.444 against him this year, which means he’s essentially made every hitter he’s faced the equivalent of Delmon Young only with more power.
Over his last five starts, opponents are hitting .340/.377/.620 against him. Albert Pujols.
For the year he’s 3-7 on the road with a 5.20 ERA, allowing a .318/.349/.456 line.
Blackburn has already faced the Sox five times, going 2-2 with a 5.67 ERA. In 27 innings he’s allowed 37 hits and four homers. Against the Sox, who have hit 234 homers, four homers in five starts is actually pretty good.
Three of the five starts Blackburn made against the Sox have come at the Cell. He’s 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in those three, allowing 13 runs (12 earned) in 15 innings.

None of that news is good. Here’s what Blackburn needs to do:
Throw strikes. That’s obvious, but that doesn’t make it any less important. Blackburn is going to give up hits. He simply doesn’t miss enough bats (only 93 Ks in 187 IP this year) to string together lots of 1-2-3 innings. Guys that pitch to contact are going to give up hits. If you’re mixing walks in there, too, you’re in trouble.
Along those same lines, he has to keep the ball in the park. He can survive a homer, maybe even two, if they come with the bases empty. But even that would be tough in a hostile environment. Homers get the crowd into the game, and that can rattle a young pitcher.
He’s gonna need that sinker. As mentioned, there’s going to be runners on base. If the sinker’s working, that means double plays.

As for the Sox, they’re going with second-year lefty John Danks. He leads the Sox with a 3.47 ERA (9th in the AL). He’s 11-9, and in 187 innings has fanned 155. He had a 2.67 ERA at the All-Star break - 4.73 since.
Luckily for the Twins, Danks has been better on the road this year, though he’s still been OK at home. In 17 starts at the Cell he’s 4-6 with a 3.96 ERA, but the hits, walks and home runs allowed are almost identical, as is his strikeout rate, which suggests he really hasn’t pitched much differently home or away.

While the thought of the Twins having to face a lefty on the road in a big game would seem to be the perfect recipe for a Twins loss, Danks is one lefty the Twins have actually had some success against.
In 4 starts against the Twins this year, he’s 1-1 with a 7.91 ERA, having allowed 18 runs (17 earned) in 19.1 innings, allowing 29 hits and 10 walks.
The Twins are hitting .349/.415/.458 against Danks, meaning every Twins hitter has performed like Joe Mauer against him. Justin Morneau is 8 for 18 with 3 homers in his career against Danks.
So that’s encouraging.

The Call
Based on the fact that the game is at the Cell (thanks to a coin flip, baseball doesn’t use head-to-head tiebreakers), the Sox are the favorite. The Twins have been terrible on the road since the All-Star break. There’s nothing to suggest they should win this game, other than they’re due. If you’re a Twins fan, being due is about the best thing you’ve got going for you.
Of course, it’s been such a crazy, mixed up, goofy season that nothing would surprise me, and the neat thing about it coming down to one game, rather than a best of three or five or seven series, is that absolutely anything can happen. Nick Punto could get four hits. Danks could walk 10 guys. The stats don’t really matter on a single night, because anybody can have one good night.
My guess is the White Sox will win. But part of the reason I say that is in hopes that I will be proven wrong, because this team has been doing that all year.