Sunday, April 27, 2008
May I call you Rondellmon?
It's early, so I'm not going to write anyone off. But while most of my friends and fellow Twins fans bitch and moan about Mike Lamb (he'll end up at .275 with 15 homers, so quit bitching) and Joe Mauer (he's never going to hit homers, deal with it), I find myself wondering when Delmon Young is going to put up numbers that are better than Nick Punto's.
OK, that's pushing it, but Delmon is currently getting out-OPS'd by Johan Santana. So are the Twins as a team, actually.
Last year in Tampa, Young hit .288 with 93 RBI, and those are two numbers that would indicate he had a good-but-not-great season. And at his age, it would stand to reason he's only going to get better. I've written that myself, and I still believe it to be true.
On the other hand, .288 isn't all that great when it comes with only 26 walks. That's a .316 OBP, and that's not very good. In addition he had only 13 homers, and he played in all 162 games. The guy had 645 at-bats. 13 homers in 645 ABs? I think Boof Bonser would hit more than 13 bombs if he got that many chances.
Young has been compared to various hall of fame players (always unfair, no matter how good a young guy actually is) and many, including myself, speculated that he might be able to cover Torri Hunter's offense as soon as this year. But he actually is closer to Carlos Gomez than Torii Hunter at this point. You can see the talent, but he just looks really raw. Not very patient with a very long swing. So far he's basically filled the void left by Rondell White.
Through 93 ABs entering play Sunday, DY had a miserable .289 OBP and even worse .312 slugging percentage. No homers, 3 doubles and a triple. And if my memory serves me correct, two of those three doubles came because he hustled against lazy OF's to get an extra base on a single. It's great that he did that, but it shows his power numbers could be even worse.
Now you can chalk it all up to his youth, and for now, I'll probably do that myself in the interest of staying positive with a young prospect. But in looking at his minor league numbers, it's clear that the higher Young has climbed, the less he's hit for power.
He hit 25 homers in the Sally League (A+) in 2004, then hit 20 dongs in only 84 games at Double-A in '05, at the age of 19. To be doing that at 19 is really impressive, and that's why, at the time, he was arguably the top hitting prospect in all of baseball.
But when he moved to Triple-A, he stopped hitting home runs.
6 homers in 52 games in 2005. 8 in 86 games in 2006. And 13 in 645 at-bats last year.
If Young doesn't hit homers, he won't be nearly as valuable, because he doesn't get on base much and doesn't play a premium defensive position. Torii Hunter never had a great OBP, but because he hit 25-30 homers and was a Gold Glove CF, his on-base skills didn't much matter.
Think of it this way. Joe Mauer's lack of power is annoying, yes. But he usually has a .400 OBP and is one of the best defensive players in the league at the most difficult position in the sport.
Imagine Young hitting .300 with 8 homers just like Mauer, but doing it in left field, with a .325 OBP. Would you trade the best pitching prospect in your organization for that?
Friday, April 25, 2008
Not ready, but it's not a big deal yet
2/3 of an inning, five hits, three walks and six runs. A total disaster.
By the time you read this, the Twins will have announced that Liriano is going back to Triple-A Rochester, with Red Wings closer Bobby Korecky getting called up to give the Twins 'pen another arm. With a few off days coming up, the Twins will probably be able to survive without a fifth starter until Kevin Slowey is ready to come off the DL.
It was clear that Liriano wasn't ready for a call-up, and the Rochester coaching staff warned the Twins that was the case, but they called him up anyway.
Even though he wasn't ready it still made some sense. The Twins wanted to be able to keep tabs on Liriano themselves. To be able to monitor his habits daily. That's understandable.
So if they still wanted to do that, they could just move Liriano to the bullpen and use him as a mop-up guy.
But apparently confidence is as much the issue as anything physical, so maybe a trip back to the minors makes sense. The most important thing, as Ron Gardenhire stated after the game, is that Liriano just keeps throwing. It doesn't really matter where. But for right now, going down to the minors can't be a bad thing.
There's really no reason to be surprised by any of this. Liriano didn't throw for, what, 19 months? What do you expect? Of course he won't have any command, or bite on his breaking pitches.
Surely the idea that Liriano will ever return to his former self is in doubt, but that was already the case as soon as he had TJ surgery. Nothing that has happened in these first couple months of his comeback have made a full recovery any more or less likely.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Notes from a nice win
I hate it when the Twins play in Oakland. Not so much because of how late it gets, but because of the incredibly annoying extraneous sounds that can be heard during the broadcast. Trumpets, harmonicas, whistles...what the hell? It drives me nuts.
But Tuesday it was worth it to tolerate those noises as the Twins posted an entertaining win, one that was spearheaded by Craig Monroe.
Monroe entered the game 7-for-11 in his career against Oakland starter Joe Blanton, and upped that to 10-for-14 (a .714 average) by singling, doubling and homering off Blanton.
The addition of Monroe has been widely criticized, and justifiably so. Teams like the Twins have no business paying platoon players $3.8 million. But the good news is Monroe has been showing signs that he may bounce back from last year's nightmare season. He's probably not ever going to repeat his 2006 season when he hit 28 homers and was a key member of the Tigers' run to the World Series, but he can give the Twins a dangerous bench bat, something they haven't really had in recent years.
And give credit to Ron Gardenhire for, so far, using Monroe optimally. I have to say I've been impressed with the way Gardy has managed his lineups and used his bench so far this season.
*Mike Lamb has gotten on the bad side of many impatient blog commenters around the web with his slow start, but it's silly to worry about him, or to suggest that he should lose his job. He went 3-for-4 Tuesday, and while only one of those three hits was hit particularly well, bumping his average could bump him out of his funk.
Unlike many of the stiffs the Twins have tried to pass off in recent years, Lamb actually has a track record, which is why Ron Coomer correctly scoffed when Anthony LaPanta asked him in the post game show if Lamb's slow start was a concern.
Lamb has had seven full seasons in the big leagues, and he put up the following numbers in those years:
YR Avg OBP SLG
00 .278 .328 .373
01 .306 .348 .412
02 .283 .354 .411
04 .288 .356 .511
05 .236 .284 .419
06 .307 .361 .475
07 .289 .366 .453
Yes, his 2005 stats are a red flag, but every other year, he was a reliable, solidly above average major league hitter. He will hit.
*On the other hand, it's official. Carlos Gomez sucks.
Calm down, now, I'm not giving up on him or anything. I think he has a chance to be great. His potential appears limitless.
But he is so not ready. Tuesday he was 0-for-5 with 4 Ks. He swings at everything. He has no approach at the plate. He's a poor bunter, and he bunts all the time.
He's now hitting .233/.250/.314, for a horrific .564 OPS. In 20 games he has 23 strikeouts, and 2 walks. Not the K/BB ratio you look for in a leadoff guy.
And while the catch he made Sunday afternoon was indeed impressive, Gomez has so far been a liability on defense as well. He takes absolutely horrendous angles to balls in the gap (both in the air and on the ground), which has already turned a few singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He also has yet to harness his impressive throwing arm, missing the cutoff man as often as he guns someone down.
Now. The fact that Gomez has played every inning so far is certainly defensible. The Twins are rebuilding this year, and Gomez is gaining valuable experience.
Why not let him play every day and work through his rough edges, right?
But the thing is, learning on the job doesn't have to be done at the big league level. In fact, sometimes it might be better off not to do it that way.
Torii Hunter spent all of 1999 in the big leagues, and struggled some (.255/.309/.380). When he struggled again in 2000 he was sent back to Triple A. But when he came back he pounded the ball, and hit 26 homers in 2001, the first of his several year run of being a solid major league slugger.
If Gomez is allowed to flail away for too long in the majors, it could hurt his confidence and affect his long term progression. It's still early, but you have to wonder if eventually Gomez would be better served to go back to Triple-A (where he's played a total of 36 games in his entire life) for awhile.
*Nice work by the Vikings picking up Jared Allen, the league's sack leader a year ago with 15.5 (also he wears No. 69. He he.). Considering the Vikings would've just ended up with another Duane Clemons or Fernando Smith with the draft pick, I strongly support the trade. NFL teams overvalue their draft picks.
*Speaking of the NFL and trades, how awesome is it that the Bengals would rather make Chad Johnson sit out the season then let him get his way, even if it means turning down decent trade offers? The Skins offered the Bengals a first and third round pick for the guy, and the Bengals basically said, 'No we want to screw this guy, even if it would help our team to make this trade.'
Chad Johnson is a fucking dick. I hate him. He sucks.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Minor matters
Two players that a large percentage of Twins fans have ripped on heavily in recent years are Scott Baker and Jason Kubel.
Fans (the dumb ones) tend to get really worked up about prospects that they hear about on the minor league reports on TV and the radio, but when those prospects don't pan out quickly enough for their liking, they're amazingly quick to give up on them. They start complaining that they'll never amount to anything, that they're bums, and that (fill in the name of an overrated journeyman) should be playing in their spot.
But the Twins have been patient with Baker and Kubel (in Kubel's case too patient), and now they're both emerging. After 7 excellent innings against Cleveland Sunday, Baker's ERA is 3.51. He fanned 8 and walked one. If Brendan Harris could've turned a DP, it would've been a shutout. Going back to the middle of last year, Baker has been pitching like an ace for a long enough stretch that it's now safe to think he's got the potential to be at least a good No. 2 type starter, maybe a No. 1.
And Kubel, playing every day, continues to hit well. He's second on the team in HR and RBI, and two more hits Sunday pushed his average to .266. I was sure that last year would be his breakout year, and, even though he finished strong, it didn't really happen. This year, it looks like he's well on his way. (And by breakout year, I mean .285 with 20 to 25 homers and 80 to 100 RBIs.)
What is the lesson here? Patience yes, but more so, to pay attention to minor league stats. If a guy has put up fantastic numbers in the minors he's got an excellent chance to put up numbers in the big leagues. So you show those guys plenty of patience.
Kubel hit .320/.385/.499 in his minor league career, and Baker posted a 2.99 ERA with 408 Ks and just 97 walks in 482 innings in his.
It's almost stunning to think of all the people last year who wanted Jason Tyner and even Lew Ford playing over Kubel. And who couldn't understand why Baker was getting another callup.
Now it should be sinking in, and it really shouldn't be viewed as a surprise by anyone who's been paying attention.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Same shit, different day
Monday, April 14, 2008
The Tigers will be talking about this game in October
Well, at least we've got a lot to talk about.
First off, this loss doesn't hurt quite as much for me as you might think, because nothing in the Twins first 12 games did anything to change my mind about this year's team. They're a .500 team. Blowing a five-run lead would kill me if I thought it had a chance to cost the Twins a pennant, but this team ain't winning no pennant, so, you know. BFD.
What sucks about this loss is you know its the kind we're going to hear about forever. Because you know, you just know, the Tigers are back now. This is exactly what they needed - an emotional, come from behind win at home.
I'm not saying this game will cause an immediate turnaround, because the Tigers were going to get going eventually anyway. But you know when they do, they'll be telling local and national media about how it was that big comeback against the Twins that did the trick, especially since Jim Leyland supposedly ripped his guys Sunday night. That had nothing to do with the Twins choking, but it sounds good in the paper, right?
No, the Tigers won because the Twins gave the game away.
Here's how:
*Nick Blackburn fell apart. It would be easy to blame Ron Gardenhire for not having Matt Guerrier ready to go, but Blackburn fell apart so fast, there wasn't much he could do.
*Guerrier wasn't very good. He was leaving his pitches up and over the middle, and the Tigers hitters are way too good to do that against.
*Gardy left Guerrier in too long. When Gardy was asked about that afterwards he said, refreshingly, that Guerrier should be good enough to protect a five run lead without getting Neshek up. He's right. But he still could've had Jesse Crain or Juan Rincon ready to go, and either of them would've been a better option at that point, because Guerrier was getting thumped.
*Neshek was terrible. His slider had so little bite that it actually looked like an 82-mph fastball on screen. He was throwing puss right down the middle of the plate. The Rodriguez triple was especially frustrating. I-Rod almost always swings at the first pitch, so beginning an at-bat with a get-me-over hanger, whether intentional or not, is unforgivable.
*Gardy left Neshek in too long, too. I can understand trusting him and wanting to ride him, but Dennys Reyes or Joe Nathan could have at least been warming up.
*Denard Span should've caught that ball. Weak.
*Carlos Gomez might be fast, but he might also be, fundamentally, the worst CF in baseball. Watching him and Span try to cut off soft liners into the gap was embarrassing. If Torii Hunter's in CF, he cuts those balls off, and the game might still be going.
*Adam Everett appears to be, right now, the worst player in baseball. He can't hit (we knew that), but right now he can't throw it either. If he isn't fielding, and fielding extremely well, he's worthless.
*Nick Punto very nearly tied the game with an opposite field drive in the 9th, and he's showing signs of being less terrible at the plate, but I still think you've got to have Craig Monroe pinch hit there if you have Matt Tolbert ready to come in in the infield (they did).
About blogs
We'll return to your regularly scheduled Twinstown stuff tomorrow.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Bats Come Alive
One game can often easily change the perception of a team or unit (in this case, the Twins offense).
A dozen runs and suddenly everyone feels better.
It's just one game, but there is plenty you can take from this one to make you feel a little better about this struggling lineup.
*Jason Kubel is going to play after all. Ever since the Twins overpaid for Craig Monroe, Ron Gardenhire seemed to be hinting that Kubel would lose ABs to Monroe, and that seemed to be confirmed when Monroe got the start on opening day at DH, even with a righty on the mound. But I'm starting to think that move was largely a pointed motivational tactic aimed at Kubel, who Gardy and others often complain doesn't "show enough fire".
I for one don't give a shit if a guy "shows fire" if he can play.
For example:
Nick Punto=Fire=Shitty. Alex Rodriguez=not that much fire=best player alive.
Kubel is no A-Rod, but he was the team's best hitter in the second half last year. And after driving in six runs with a double and a grand slam Wednesday night, Gardy had this to say:
"He's in the lineup to hit. I've always said I really believe this guy can hit. He's going to get plenty of opportunities this year. He got 450 at-bats last year, I think, and he's going to get more than that this year. He's healthy from his knee problems now and it's time to get his at-bats and go."
Is Gardy a hypocrite pulling a 180? Or has he planned all along to give Kubel the ABs he deserved, and just wanted to get his goat a little by benching him on opening day?
I'm guessing the latter. But it doesn't matter. What matters is that Kubel is apparently finally going to get his chance to play every day.
*Brendan Harris had two singles a double and a walk, and made another error.
He's obviously not much of a fielder, but he can hit. While many have wondered if his '07 numbers (.286, 12 homers, 35 doubles) were a fluke, it might be worth asking if that was just a start. Maybe he's just going to get better.
And while his defense is a concern, there's a chance the Twins can help him improve. It's a lot easier to get better as a fielder (especially at a non-impact position like 2B) than it is to learn how to hit.
*Mike Lamb had a single and a double, and appears to be warming up, though he did have to leave the game Wednesday with a bruised foot. Joe Mauer is hitting .323, and Justin Morneau is already up to .233 after an 0 for 16 start. And Morneau also has five walks (and just five strikeouts) in 9 games.
*Scott Baker may have given up 3 runs in 5 innings (that's a 5.40 ERA), but he pitched like an ace. How?
When spotted a 7-0 lead, he correctly realized that as long as he didn't give up any free passes and kept the baserunners to a minimum, there was no way the White Sox could win. Where alot of pitchers would've continued to pitch carefully (because they're worried about their ERA), Baker went right at the hitters, and allowed three homers. All were solos. None were a factor in the game. That is how you pitch with a lead.
*The good news never ends. Matt Garza had to leave his last start with Tampa and has been put on the DL with radial nerve irriation. He claims it was something that started to bother him late last year. That might not make the D-Rays too happy, and Gardy took exception to Garza's suggestion.
"Wasn't he healthy all spring for them?" Gardenhire said. "So now he's going to say he was hurt earlier? That's not good."
"He never missed a bullpen [session] or a start [here]. I don't know what he's saying. I haven't read it and don't plan on reading it, just based on what you said. Everything was documented on Matt Garza and there were no injuries here."
"If he said he was hurt, I'm not going to call him a liar or anything like that. But he should have let us know that he might have had an injury. Normally, it's good when the team you are pitching for knows that. But I doubt that he had any injuries here."
Maybe Garza is damaged goods, but the more pressing concern for the Rays should be the fact that Garza kind of seems like a mental midget. He seems sort of...scatterbrained.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
The New Guys: One Week In
He's here: Whoever they added in the offseason.
He's outta here: Whoever the team in question got rid of.
I remember one year (2001) the Twins preview said this after he's here: Tom Prince.
That was it. Tom Prince. The Twins offseason consisted of signing Tom Prince, a backup catcher who was great behind the dish but couldn't hit his weight. And the Twins improved by 16 wins that year.
Anyway, I learned to get used to that every year.
But this season, the Twins offseason consisted of alot.
The 'He's here' consisted of Carlos Gomez, Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, Livan Hernandez and Jason Pridie (not to mention Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Zach Day, Randy Ruiz, John Knott and other minor leaguers).
It's been a week and the Twins are 3-5. Here's a quick look at what the Twins new acquisitions have given them.
Gomez
I didn't think he'd be ready, and let's remember, he's still really raw with lots of holes in his swing. But I'll be the first to admit that I underestimated his potential. I made a big deal about the Twins inability to land Fernando Martinez in the Johan Santana deal, and while I still think Martinez has amazing potential, I can certainly see why the Twins liked Gomez. He's a fun guy to watch. As of right now he's a terror on the basepaths, 5 for 5 stealing bases, with a .333 average and .353 OBP. But the 10 Ks and only 1 walk suggest it won't last.
Still, I love this kid. My guess is he finishes the year with an OBP in the .320s or so, but he's still awful young. He'll get better.
Everett
The best shortstop in the game was how he was touted, with some calling him better than Ozzie Smith. And while he's made some nice plays early, he's also made some bad throws, keeping Justin Morneau busy. Hopefully he'll straighten that out. The bat appears to be as advertised: Weak.
Lamb
He had a nice game at the plate Monday, which will hopefully shake him out of a slight slump. I haven't seen him field enough balls to make a judgment about his fielding, and while he hasn't hit much yet, I like his approach and swing.
Harris
He's made some highlight reel plays at 2B, but they look like the kind of plays that Nick Punto would get to flat-footed, so the questions about his defense seem warranted. But early on it looks like his strong season at the plate last year was no fluke. He can hit. He'll handle the 2-hole OK while Michael Cuddyer is hurt, but hopefully he'll be moved back to the bottom of the order when Cuddyer comes back. He sure makes a good 8-hole guy.
Young
The question about how good Young will be revolves around his power and plate discipline, and so far he's shown none of either. He's hitting .290, which is fine, expect for the fact that his OBP is also .290 since he has no walks, and his slugging percentage is .323 since he has only a double among his 9 hits. I'm hoping that Young's power will develop as he gets older and matures as a hitter, but I've been hoping for the same thing from Joe Mauer for a few years, and so far haven't seen it.
Hernandez
Hard to argue with the results so far. I'm not getting worked up, because I had high hopes that Ramon Ortiz could be decent last year, and after a terrific start, he was soon getting bombed. Livan may thrown about as hard as me, but he mixes it up well and so far has been throwing strikes. If nothing else, I do believe he'll have a positive influence on the rest of the young rotation, whether or not he continues to pitch well.
Monroe
Looks bad so far (one hit, five Ks in 11 ABs). Playing him over Jason Kubel is stupid times 10, but Gardy seems to have figured that out already, to the degree that now that Cuddyer is on the DL, light-hitting Denard Span is getting starts in RF instead of Monroe. Monroe can still contribute something, but only if he's limited to playing against lefties only (though he still wouldn't be worth $3.8 million at that point). I guess, at the very least, it's nice to have a guy on the bench who at least has the potential to hit the ball over the fence.
Matt Tolbert
A surprise addition to the roster after a good spring, Tolbert is hitting .500 (7-for-14). I wouldn't expect that to keep up, but he shows promise as a utility guy. Punto has barely seen the field so far, and for that alone, we should heartily celebrate the presence of Matt Tolbert.
Friday, April 04, 2008
I'm not impressed
The Royals swept the Tigers.
The Royals, who lose 100 games every year, swept the Tigers, who are supposed to be the best team like, ever.
Gil Meche, Brian 'son of Floyd' Bannister and Zack Greinke are three pretty solid starters, and they shoved it up the Tigers' butts.
But before we all jump on the Royals bandwagon, let's rewind five years.
It was 2003, and the Royals had a rookie manager, like they do now. The Twins and White Sox were the heavy favorites in the AL Central, much like the Indians and Tigers are now.
The Royals opened the season by sweeping the White Sox, and soon ran their record to 9-0. Everyone was excited. The new manager was a new celebrity.
After sweeping a two-game series from the Twins, the Royals record was at 16-3.
16-3!
But it was all downhill from there. They ended up 83-79, a fluke season in the middle of a series of 100-loss seasons.
The Royals are better than they were last year. But I'm not buying in based on three games.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
The other way around
Every year the Twins manage to buck the assumed role they'll have.
We think they'll be able to hit, and they can't. We think their pitching will be shitty. And it isn't.
The first three games don't prove a thing, but the way things have played out are, well, ironic, to say the least.
Three games, three quality starts from the starting rotation.
Three games, four runs from the new and improved lineup.
If you're working yourself into a lather over the lineup's struggles, look at it this way.
Do you think the pitching is going to keep this up? No, you don't. So there's no more reason to assume the hitting will remain this bad.
Or, to look at it another way, the Twins, through three games, are hitting .237/.283/.280. Terrible? Absolutely.
But the Tigers, the consensus pick to have the best lineup in all of baseball, are at .191/.267/.338 through two games against the Royals.
It is a long, long, long season.
Having said that, there are concerns.
*Justin Morneau looks awful, and it really has nothing to do with the fact that he's 0-for-11 or whatever. It has to do with the fact that he hasn't even hit the ball out of the infield yet, and the fact that he was worse than every Twins hitter not named Nick Punto in spring training, and the fact that he was pretty awful during August and September of last year. This isn't a three-game slump, this is a four-month (not counting off-season) slump.
It's too early, and therefore unfair I think, to start wondering if his new contract plays a role in this, but there's really no excuse for what he's doing.
The guy who won the 2006 MVP and got off to a similar start in '07 was a guy who hit the ball to all fields, was not pull-conscious, could hit lefties and righties, could take what the pitcher gave him, could go with the pitch. He was a complete hitter.
So suggesting that pitchers have simply made the adjustments doesn't explain it for me.
I think he's just gotta sack up and start hitting. I don't think there's any more to it than that.
*You might be shocked to know that I have no problem with the fact that Punto got the start at 3B over Mike Lamb. The reason being I don't think Gardy did it because Punto's a switch-hitter, Lamb is a lefty and the pitcher was a lefty. I think it was more a case of wanting to get Punto in and give Lamb an early rest.
I've always believed that a good manager will make sure every player on the roster gets into the first series of the year, perhaps gets a start if possible. Lamb is going to have to be eased into an everyday role.
Lamb hit .362 against lefties last year (only 57 ABs), and for his career is at .268. That's much better than Punto hits against anyone. So I'm pretty sure it won't be a regular occurrence.
*Terrific start for Nick Blackburn. Too bad they couldn't get him a run. Puts a little pressure on Kevin Slowey as he takes the mound tonight, because when Francisco Liriano comes off the DL, somebody's probably going to get bumped. Brian Bass will probably be the guy who gets sent down when that day comes, the question is which of those three goes to the bullpen.
*Joe Mauer hits into a game-ending double play. OK, whatever, no big surprise. Kirby Puckett led the league in GIDP's almost every year.
But here's what I can't help but think about 57 times a day. Joe is 6-5, 230. Why does he hit like Brett Butler (the former Dodgers/Indians/Giants leadoff guy, not the ugly comedienne)?
Please, Joe, please start driving the ball. Maybe even hit one over the fence.