Twins Town

The Punto Signing

2008-12-12T03:28:00.000-06:00

Nick Punto. Infielder, Minnesota Twins. Bats switch, throws right. Age 31.

2005: .239/.301/.335
2006: .290/.352/.373
2007: .210/.291/.271
2008: .284/.344/.382

The Twins signed Punto, the lightning-rod infielder, to a 2-year, $8.5 million deal yesterday.
Predictably, a significant portion of Twins nation is livid.
That's somewhat understandable, as Punto has never been anywhere near as good as Twins manager Ron Gardenhire oddly seems to think he is. In 2007 the Twins had their most frustrating season of the decade, and Punto took the brunt of the blame, as he posted one of the top 10 worst offensive seasons in major leauge history. When Gardy is gone from this planet, historians are going to dock him serious points when they look back and see he gave 472 at-bats to a guy with a .271 slugging percentage that year.

But a couple of things here, coming from someone who was as anti-Punto as anyone....in '05 and '07.
As bad as Punto was that year, it's unfair that he was essentially the face of that team's failures, as Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Bartlett, Luis Castillo, Johan Santana and Michael Cuddyer, among others, all had down years that year. Not to the extent that Punto did, certainly, but it's not fair to heap all of the blame from that year on one guy.
As it is, Punto has never, and perhaps will never, be able to live '07 down. Many fans posting on the various blogs and newspaper comment sections have said something about Punto's "one good year", a reference to 2006, but guess what? Punto was actually even better last year. His OPS+ was 99 (in '06 it was 90), meaning he was essentially a league-average hitter.

His defense, well, I'll be honest. It's hard to say how good it really is/was.
Punto gets on web-gems all the time, and yes, there are plenty of times during the season when I see him make a play and go, "Man, that was one hell of a play."
But according to most fielding metrics, Punto was about average at third base, where he's spent most of his time in the field the last few years.
At shortstop he hasn't played enough to probably get a real good handle on, but for what it's worth, his Revised Zone Rating last year as a shortstop was .860. It was .688 at third base, which was worse than both Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris, if you can believe it.

I'm not sure to what degree I trust most advanced fielding statistics, but I do know that they seem to show that guys who make a lot of highlight-reel plays often do so because their range is somewhat limited. Adam Everett, for example, makes few spectacular plays (and consequently never wins any Gold Gloves), but, when healthy, consistently grades out as one of the best fielders in the game, because he just gets to so damn many balls.
To put it another way, a ball that your average shortstop makes a diving stab on, and fires from his knees for an out to land on ESPN's Top Plays, Everett gets to standing up, and simply throws across for a routine out. Which is why Punto's .860 is encouraging. If that's no fluke, he's going to get to a lot of balls at short.
Combine that kind of defense with league-average offense, and Punto is actually a bargain at $4 million a year.
Many fans probably would've been much more pleased if the Twins had gone out and acquired a "name" shortstop like Jack Wilson or David Eckstein, but those guys would've been more expensive and, I promise, less effective.

All of which is a long way of saying that if Punto repeats his 2008 performance - or even comes somewhat close to it, this is a good signing. If, however, he returns to the form of the worst offensive player in the league, and/or sacrifices consistent fielding for Web Gems, the Twins will probably wind up playing Brendan Harris and/or Matt Tolbert at short, and Punto will be back to a utility role, making $4 million to sit on the bench.

My guess is Punto will be OK. In fact, my biggest worry is that he'll get hurt.
His signing isn't necessarily great news for the Twins, but it was the best option available to them, and consequently, the right thing to do.

If you're really upset about this move, there are a few things you need to understand:
1. Shortstop is the second hardest position to fill with a quality player, behind only catcher.
2. As such, there aren't that many good ones out there. The Twins were interested in acquiring JJ Hardy, but he would've cost them two starting-caliber players, and most scouts say he'd be better off at 3B anyway. Outside of that, the market was full of guys who aren't much better, if at all, than Punto, but would've cost twice as much.
3. The Twins aren't ever going to be big players in free-agency, or, usually, the trade market. So just get your Rafael Furcal/Matt Holiday/Jake Peavy fantasies out of your head for good. If you're holding out hope for the Twins to go out and get a "big name", you haven't been paying attention for the last few years. This is how the Twins do business. By avoiding risks. It's not sexy, but it works (for the most part).
4. Quit blaming Carl Pohlad. I hate him too, but equating the Punto signing to Pohlad's frugality is ridiculous. There's a reason teams like the Rangers, Orioles and Mariners always suck. They hand out huge contracts just for the sake of handing them out. Never learn. I like the fact that the Twins are thrifty.
Successful teams are built by making good baseball decisions, not by opening the checkbook (and yes, that even goes for the Yankees. Signing CC Sabathia was a good baseball decision. Carl Pavano, Johnny Damon, Kevin Brown, and many, many others, were not).
My guess is if Pohlad woke up one morning and told Bill Smith to raise the payroll to $250 million, the Twins would immediately embark on a long period of suck, as they'd bury themselves by throwing too much money at the wrong people.

Off-season targets may not be worth it

2008-11-10T19:53:00.002-06:00

There has been speculation that this offseason will be a slightly quieter one for the Twins, and realistically, I suppose, it will be, compared to last year.Last winter there were the Torii Hunter and Johan Santana situations, the Delmon Young/Brendan Harris for Jason Bartlett/Matt Garza trade, the signings of Adam Everett, Craig Monroe, Livan Hernandez and Mike Lamb, and the contract extensions for Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, all of which were orchestrated by a brand new GM, Bill Smith.
For the most part, Smith struck out. The Santana haul was underwhelming. Monroe, Everett, Hernandez and Lamb were all, for the most part, failures, and the Tampa trade, after one year at least, looks lopsidedly bad.Of course, none of that prevented the Twins from finishing the regular season tied for first place.
So what’s in store for this off-season? A few things.

* An outfielder will be traded. As Carlos Gomez limped through a terrible rookie year, it looked likely that he’d begin 2009 in Triple-A, with Denard Span in center, Young in left, Cuddyer in right and Jason Kubel as the 4th OF/DH.
But Gomez finished the season strong, and got to more balls than any other CF in baseball. It now seems almost certain that he’ll be the Twins opening day CF next year. Perfectly fine.
But it means someone has to go. Ideally, that’d be Cuddyer. While Cuddyer is well-liked (understandable, he is one the nicest people in baseball), he is also a player whose skills are deteriorating, who’s coming off an injury-plagued season, and who’s overpaid.
For all those reasons, unfortunately, it’ll be hard to move him. Only a team like the Yankees or Dodgers would probably be willing to take on his salary, and even if those teams were looking for a right-handed corner outfielder, they’d probably come to the conclusion that they could do better than Cuddyer.
That leaves Young. Young is not a bad player, but it seems unlikely that he’ll ever become the Kirby Puckett-type player the Twins envisioned when they gave up their top pitching prospect to acquire him. Yes, Young has tremendous power. But he hits almost everything on the ground. You can have the most powerful swing in history, if 90% of the balls you put in play are groundballs, you won’t hit many home runs.
At this point, it’s hard not to think that Delmon is what he is: A .280-.300 hitter who will post an OBP around .310-.330 and a SLG between .390 and .450. He may top out at the high end of those figures (.300/.330/.450), and while that would be pretty good, it’s still no better than what Jacque Jones provided in his best years.
He’s also a poor outfielder with a seemingly boorish attitude.
I’m guessing those last two factors are the main reason the Twins have been leaking to the public that they’re shopping Young. Fine. He has more trade value than Cuddyer, simply because he’s cheaper and younger.
But the Twins should be prepared to find that potential suitors aren’t going to be as dumb as they were a year ago. In other words, don’t expect to fetch a top-of-the-rotation starter and a decent starting shortstop for him. I also suppose the Twins could look into moving Kubel, because they have a history of undervaluing players like him. Yes, he hit .272 with 20 homers, but he’s not terribly athletic and doesn’t bunt much, so I can see Ron Gardenhire urging Smith to trade him for a guy who “hustles” and “gets after it” and “makes things happen”.
I would argue that a .335 OBP and .471 SLG also help to make things happen, and that Kubel is a better fielder than Young, despite not being as fast. Young has a better arm, but that’s almost meaningless in LF.There’s not room for everybody. Someone’s gonna go. My money’s on Young, but I couldn’t begin to speculate what he’d bring in return.

* Despite the bullpen’s struggles, there won’t be any major additions to the relief corps.The Twins were supposedly interested in signing LaTroy Hawkins after they unwisely passed on him at the trade deadline, but he re-signed with Houston. Oakland’s Huston Street has been mentioned as a possible target, but he is rumored to be part of today’s deal for Matt Holiday.The fact is, the best way to build a bullpen these days is from within. As I’ve written nearly verbatim several times already this year, anyone the Twins sign via free-agency won’t likely be any better than Jesse Crain, but will cost at least $5 million a year.
The Twins will keep their fingers crossed that Pat Neshek is something close to his former self next year, that Crain and Matt Guerrier will bounce back next year with lesser roles, and that Jose Mijares can be as good as he was down the stretch. They’ll also give guys like Bobby Korecky, Phil Humber, Anthony Slama and Robert Delaney a chance to earn a spot. I’m actually fairly confident that Twins ‘pen will be solid next year, if not excellent.

* The Twins will look to upgrade at 3B and SS, but they may stand pat, and that wouldn’t be terrible.Nick Punto finished the season as the everyday SS after Adam Everett never got healthy enough to hold down the job, and Brendan Harris proved he lacked the range to do so.Punto responded with his most productive big league season, hitting .284/.344/.382. He wasn’t as dependable in the field at SS as he has been at 2B and 3B, but he was solid.
The Twins would love to have Punto back, and he would love to be back. But Punto wants to be back as the starting SS, and he wants to be paid like it. The Twins, understandably and correctly, are hesitant to make that commitment. Punto’s an excellent utility guy, but Matt Tolbert and Matt Macri could fill the backup infield spots cheaply and effectively, so there’s just no reason to give Punto very much money. He may test the market, and if he does, he could still come back to the Twins if he doesn’t get any great offers - a distinct possibility.
A couple names have been thrown around as targets for the Twins, none more attractive than Brewers SS JJ Hardy.Last year, at age 25, Hardy hit .283/.343/.478 with 24 homers, and the year before that hit .277/.323/.463 with 26 homers. In the field, he posted an .826 RZR - not great, but not terrible, either. Punto’s was .860.The Twins would have to include at least one of their pitching prospects and something more, I would think, to land Hardy.
Now is the time to sell high on Nick Blackburn, who simply doesn’t miss enough bats to be a consistent sub-4.00 pitcher in the big leagues.
If the Brewers were willing to offer Hardy for Blackburn and Glen Perkins, it’d be tempting. Likely the Twins would try to make a deal involving only one of those two, and try to sweeten it with someone like Kevin Mulvey or Phil Humber.
Delmon Young wouldn’t make a lot of sense here, because the Brewers have outfielders.
Another good option being mentioned is Atlanta’s 25-year-old Yunel Escobar, who hit .288/.366/.401 last year, and .326/.385/.451 in 94 games as a rookie the previous year. He had an .843 RZR last year.The Braves are trying to land Padres ace Jake Peavy right now, so the Twins would probably have to wait for that to get sorted out before being ale to make a move for Escobar.
It would be nice to have either of those guys, but it would also be risky to giveup one of the young starters. If the Twins pull the trigger on a deal that lands them a good, young shortstop, that’s a good thing. But if they decide to stick with Punto, and keep the pitchers in the process, that’s not terrible, either.As for 3B, the Twins have a solid option on the roster right now.
A platoon of Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris is likely to perform at a .275/.330/.400 level next year, and that’s being conservative. If they’re platooned correctly, they could far exceed those numbers. Buscher, the lefty, hit .316/.362/.437 against RHP last year, and while the right-handed Harris’s production against LHP (.265/.323/.391) was almost identical to his performance against RHP, for his career he’s a .295/.360/.440 hitter against southpaws.
Going with those two at the hot corner would be cheap and quietly productive, much like the Mike Pagliarulo/Scott Leius 3B platoon of 1991.
Having said that, it would seem that the Twins are making 3B a priority this offseason.
Casey Blake, Adrian Beltre, Garrett Atkins and Kevin Kouzmanoff are the names most frequently mentioned.
Beltre’s the best of the bunch, but since Scott Boras is his agent, it’s hard to believe he could be a long-term option for the Twins, and it wouldn’t make sense to give up Blackburn or Perkins for a one-year rental.Atkins has put up impressive numbers (3 straight years of at least 21 homers and 99 RBI), but that should be taken with a very large grain of salt, as he’s been playing in Colorado, which is still the most hitter-friendly ballpark in America. He’d be far more expensive than Buscher/Harris, and potentially no more productive.
Kouzmanoff, conversely, has been playing in pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego, which makes his 23 homers last year more impressive. But his .299 OBP, 139 strikeouts and questionable defense would probably get me to take a pss.
Blake might be a good fit - he’s a former Twin, well known by the players and coaching staff, and he’s been pretty productive over the years. He’s 36, and apparently wants a 3-year deal, but if the dollars aren’t outrageous, I wouldn’t have a big problem with him being brought aboard, particularly because it wouldn’t be by trade.
Chicago’s Joe Crede will be a free-agent, and probably could be had for cheap, as he’s been hurt a lot in recent years. He hit 17 homers in 94 games this year and is considered a good glove.
I know it’s not what the fans want to hear, but I think I’d stand pat at 3B. I just don’t think there’d be enough gain in acquiring any of those guys to give up a good, young starting pitcher, or to offer Blake a 3-year deal. If I had to pick someone I think I’d pick Crede, because he involves the least risk. Also, he is my buddy Ryan Kessinger’s favorite player (or at least he was at one time).

* (Fingers crossed) They won’t add a washed up starter to give their rotation a “veteran presence”.I actually have no confidence that this will be the case, but I’m adding it here for good karma, if nothing else.Livan Hernandez actually gave the Twins some quality starts/innings last year before getting released, and he qualifies as the best of their recent scrap-heap pitching veterans. The Twins would’ve been better off each of the last few years just going with the kids. Hopefully they won’t make that mistake this year. But if Blackburn or Perkins (or both) are traded, don’t be surprised if it happens. Part of the reason Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey were as effective as they were this year was their maturity and poise on the mound. I don’t care if they’re 17, they have enough veteran presence on their own. They don’t need to go sign Jose Lima.

2008: A long look back

2008-10-01T22:09:00.002-05:00

I’ve been playing NCAA Football ‘07 on PS2 lately. Have a season going with Oklahoma (I’m not a Sooner fan, I just like running the option with Adrian Peterson).
So I just beat Nebraska 59-0 in the Big 12 championship game to finish the regular season at 13-0. Peterson has rushed for 4,032 yards and 41 touchdowns.
So the Heisman trophy presentation comes on screen after the win over Nebraska, and who gets it? Some running back for Tennessee who had 1,700 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
What? Are you serious?

It’s kind of like how the Twins had to go on the road for the one-game playoff thanks to a coin flip, even though they won the season series. Doesn’t seem fair.

But I’m not going to focus on that. I have no sympathy for the Twins, particularly after they lost two of three to a bad (yes, the Royals are still bad) team at home when they had a chance to clinch.
And they actually played a good ball game in the loss to the Sox. I wasn’t expecting much from Nick Blackburn, but he sacked up and then some. He wasn’t perfect by any means - the Sox missed a few hangers, and of course, Jim Thome didn’t miss one - but you couldn’t have asked for more.
But John Danks was far better. He was nearly perfect. Everything had tons of movement, and he just didn’t make any mistakes.
The only thing that bugged me watching the highlight shows over and over today was how so many people were crediting Ken Griffey for his “great throw” to get Michael Cuddyer at home.
What? He was barely 30 feet behind second base and he two-hopped it. It was, in fact, a terrible throw. I could’ve got that ball home on the fly, and that’s no exaggeration.
It was such a bad throw, however, that it helped the Sox. AJ Pierzynski had to come out in front of the plate to catch it on the second hop, and by doing so, he took himself out of Cuddyer’s path. Cuddy made a valiant effort to slam into AJ to dislodge the ball, but because AJ was so far out in front of the plate he couldn’t get a real good piece of him. Had Griffey’s throw been better, there’s a good chance Cuddy would’ve caught him dead-on, and the ball just might have popped out.
(It was a great play by AJ, however. Ask any catcher how easy it is to try to scoop a short-hop throw from the outfield with a catcher’s mitt while keeping a leg in front of the plate with a runner bearing down.)

Anyway, the season has ended for the Twins. I probably won’t watch much of the first round of the playoffs, as I’m still too bitter. But I sure hope the White Sox and Cubs both lose, and once they do, I’ll probably tune in to Angels-Rays and Phillies-Dodgers.
The Dodgers-Cubs series offers a conundrum. Root for the Dodgers and their Anti-Christ leftfielder, or root for the freakin‘ Cubs?
I’m going with Man-Ram.
Ugh. Having said that, I need a shower.

So back to the Twins.
We’ll look ahead to 2009 soon enough, but for now, the question on my mind is just how are we supposed to (or how will we, in a few years) look back on 2008?
My buddy Rusty called from Houston after the game last night, and man was he pissed. He rattled on and on about AJ, about the coin flip, about how we wasted Blackburn’s gem, and he was pretty much right about everything he said.
But then he said, “I haven’t been this frustrated since…” whenever, and I was like, ‘What?’
I mean, I never really had high expectations for this team, so I can’t say I took the loss to the Sox that hard. I mean it sucks, and it really sucks that we lost to the Sox, in Chicago.
But I expected them to lose this game. Once they lost the series to KC, it was hard to really feel like the Twins deserved to be in the postseason, and it was equally hard to feel like they’d have much of a chance against the Rays (then again, it would’ve been nice to face a team that actually had less playoff experience than us for a change).
I can’t say I’m all that mad. More disappointed. I actually even kind of feel sorry for the players, because really, they let themselves down more than they did the fans. Most fans feel like the team overachieved. So they’re happy. The players know there’s a weak field this year, and they know that Detroit and Cleveland’s misfortune this year gave them a golden opportunity. They wasted it, and Cleveland will likely be back next year (the other three teams are kind of hard to peg for next year, at least right now).
And that’s why Rusty (and any sensible or knowledgeable fan) is so frustrated. The rest of the division tried to hand it to the Twins, and they gave it away. That’s frustrating no matter how bad you expected to be.

The Twins offense scored over 800 runs despite hitting only 111 homers. That’s a statistical anomaly not likely to repeat itself. While the Twins were genuinely better than expected this year, there was a lot of luck involved. They hit 20 points better than any other team with RISP. That, math majors, is called an outlier.
Not surprising, either, that while the Twins still finished with an excellent mark with runners on, that number spent most of the last couple months coming down. The Twins would’ve been in the playoffs if they’d got a big hit or two either in the KC series or in the one-game playoff against the Sox.
The Twins did not homer in their final six games of the regular season. I’m sorry, but an amateur team - using wood bats - shouldn’t go six games without a homer, let alone a major league team in a pennant race.
That simply isn’t major league offense. The Twins can talk up their small ball all they want, but the reason they had success scoring runs this year was not “flying around the bases and bunting and hit and running”, as Ron Gardenhire liked to claim. It was their unprecedented success in hitting with RISP. Once that started to slow, the Twins stopped scoring runs.
Don’t get me wrong. I like the Twins style of play. I like that they’re aggressive. Denard Span and Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla are exciting players that put pressure on the pitcher and the defense. But to win the big leagues, you have to be able to hit the ball out of the park more than once a week.
And remember, this team is perfectly suited for the Metrodome, but that’s only gonna be home for one more year. The Twins won’t be able to pound choppers off the plate to create rallies at Target Field. Then again, with Cuddyer contributing almost nothing and 3B Mike Lamb a total disappointment, small ball was really the only choice the Twins had this year. I’d say they took it as far as it could possibly take them.

As for the pitching staff, it was OK.
The rotation was the biggest and best surprise of the year. Scott Baker took another step forward as an ace, while Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn settled in as solid 2-3 guys. Francisco Liriano is at least a No. 2 right now. Glen Perkins was pretty good for a 5th starter. And don’t forget that Livan Hernandez gave the team several quality starts before predictably reverting to the line-drive machine that he is after awhile.
All five should return, but with so many quality arms in the minors, there’s no telling who the Twins might look to package in a trade for offense.
But if that doesn’t happen, they have five solid starters coming back with at least four or five strong minor-league arms to challenge them in spring training.

The pen was clearly the team’s weakness. With Pat Neshek gone, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Dennys Reyes all struggled to get leads to Joe Nathan.
They tried bringing back Eddie Guardado to fill that role, but ended up turning Jose Mijares into their primary setup guy only a week after calling him up.
I’m not saying the Twins should’ve been able to guess that would happen, but they could’ve been proactive sooner.
Rather than trying something different to fix the bullpen, they just kept trotting out Guerrier and Crain with the same disastrous results.
They continued to use Boof Bonser as a mop-up guy instead of trying him in short relief, and they refused to call up, not necessarily Mijares, but any of the several relievers who were having success in the minors. All because they didn’t want to lose Brian Bass to waivers (and then, of course, they ended up trading him to Baltimore anyway).
Boof eventually became the team’s only decent right-handed reliever, and Mijares was great in the 8th inning. Craig Breslow was also pretty good. But by the time the team trusted them it was way too late.

Give Ron Gardenhire credit. He guided this team through some awfully tough times. I think that outweighs any mistakes he made (pitching changes, lineups, etc.). And first year GM Bill Smith didn’t give him much help if you ask me.

The Twins had their chances in 2008. In fact, they had more than they deserved. But from the injury to Neshek, to the repeated blown leads, to the Republican Convention forcing them on the road for 24 of 30 games, to the lost coin flip for the playoff game, maybe it just wasn’t meant to be.

88-75, 1 GB

2008-09-30T23:52:00.001-05:00

More later.....not right now.

163

2008-09-30T01:56:00.000-05:00

Well, don’t blame the Tigers.
I mean I guess you can blame them for getting their butts kicked, but don’t say they didn’t try to win. Jim Leyland brought in his best starting pitcher out of the bullpen when Freddy Garcia (who pitched well enough to ensure he’ll have a job next spring)got hurt. He used four different pitchers in the 6th inning.
They just lost. As was the case all year, the Tiger bats that everyone thought would form such a dominating lineup, came up short.

So now the Twins have to go into their personal house of horrors (actually, you could say that about almost any stadium in the AL) and try to win.
It’s a unique situation for the White Sox, who will be playing their third different opponent in three days. They’re 2-for-2. Can they make it 3?

I’ve bitched about the individual losses all year long. Part of what makes baseball great is the ‘game-every-day’ mentality. The ability to shrug off a loss, because there’s always tomorrow. And I think a good manager (and yes, I’m counting Ron Gardenhire in that department) creates an environment where his players don’t ever get too up or too down. That’s how you survive a long season.
But in the back of your mind, you have to be aware of the fact that the race could come down to one game. There have been a lot of ugly losses that didn’t need to be. Against the Royals, against the Blue Jays, against the Mariners.
Remember Jason Pridie bobbling that base hit in his major league debut? If he fields it cleanly, the Twins are AL Central champs right now.
Taking losses in stride is fine, in fact, it’s what you should do. But not playing every game like it’s the most important one of the year is a mistake. This year, more than any, should be a lesson of that. You do everything you can to win every game every single night.
I’m not saying the Twins didn’t do that. But you have to wonder if, early in the year, the Twins put development over winning simply because they didn’t expect to be here.
And make no mistake, Gardy didn’t expect to be here. I think he thought the Twins were capable of winning 88 games, but there’s no way he (or anyone else) thought the Indians and Tigers would both fail to win that many.

So what’ve we got here today? The Twins were 2-7 at the Cell this year.
Nick Blackburn is on the bump. Of the Twins five starters, it’d be a toss-up between Blackburn and Glen Perkins as far as which one I wouldn’t want on the mound in such a big game. But they really have no choice.
Kevin Slowey is hurting. Francisco Liriano is coming off a bad start, and using him on three days rest in his first year after surgery is probably a bad idea.
For the year, Blackburn is 11-10 with a 4.14 ERA. He’s the only Twins starter to take every one of his turns in the rotation, and leads the team with 187 innings. He’s been valuable to the team, no doubt, but he hasn’t been as good as his numbers might indicate.
In those 187 innings, he’s allowed 220 hits. Opponents have hit .295/.332/.444 against him this year, which means he’s essentially made every hitter he’s faced the equivalent of Delmon Young only with more power.
Over his last five starts, opponents are hitting .340/.377/.620 against him. Albert Pujols.
For the year he’s 3-7 on the road with a 5.20 ERA, allowing a .318/.349/.456 line.
Blackburn has already faced the Sox five times, going 2-2 with a 5.67 ERA. In 27 innings he’s allowed 37 hits and four homers. Against the Sox, who have hit 234 homers, four homers in five starts is actually pretty good.
Three of the five starts Blackburn made against the Sox have come at the Cell. He’s 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in those three, allowing 13 runs (12 earned) in 15 innings.

None of that news is good. Here’s what Blackburn needs to do:
Throw strikes. That’s obvious, but that doesn’t make it any less important. Blackburn is going to give up hits. He simply doesn’t miss enough bats (only 93 Ks in 187 IP this year) to string together lots of 1-2-3 innings. Guys that pitch to contact are going to give up hits. If you’re mixing walks in there, too, you’re in trouble.
Along those same lines, he has to keep the ball in the park. He can survive a homer, maybe even two, if they come with the bases empty. But even that would be tough in a hostile environment. Homers get the crowd into the game, and that can rattle a young pitcher.
He’s gonna need that sinker. As mentioned, there’s going to be runners on base. If the sinker’s working, that means double plays.

As for the Sox, they’re going with second-year lefty John Danks. He leads the Sox with a 3.47 ERA (9th in the AL). He’s 11-9, and in 187 innings has fanned 155. He had a 2.67 ERA at the All-Star break - 4.73 since.
Luckily for the Twins, Danks has been better on the road this year, though he’s still been OK at home. In 17 starts at the Cell he’s 4-6 with a 3.96 ERA, but the hits, walks and home runs allowed are almost identical, as is his strikeout rate, which suggests he really hasn’t pitched much differently home or away.

While the thought of the Twins having to face a lefty on the road in a big game would seem to be the perfect recipe for a Twins loss, Danks is one lefty the Twins have actually had some success against.
In 4 starts against the Twins this year, he’s 1-1 with a 7.91 ERA, having allowed 18 runs (17 earned) in 19.1 innings, allowing 29 hits and 10 walks.
The Twins are hitting .349/.415/.458 against Danks, meaning every Twins hitter has performed like Joe Mauer against him. Justin Morneau is 8 for 18 with 3 homers in his career against Danks.
So that’s encouraging.

The Call
Based on the fact that the game is at the Cell (thanks to a coin flip, baseball doesn’t use head-to-head tiebreakers), the Sox are the favorite. The Twins have been terrible on the road since the All-Star break. There’s nothing to suggest they should win this game, other than they’re due. If you’re a Twins fan, being due is about the best thing you’ve got going for you.
Of course, it’s been such a crazy, mixed up, goofy season that nothing would surprise me, and the neat thing about it coming down to one game, rather than a best of three or five or seven series, is that absolutely anything can happen. Nick Punto could get four hits. Danks could walk 10 guys. The stats don’t really matter on a single night, because anybody can have one good night.
My guess is the White Sox will win. But part of the reason I say that is in hopes that I will be proven wrong, because this team has been doing that all year.

Still alive....

2008-09-28T23:03:00.003-05:00

Thanks to the Twins shitting themselves against the Royals, when simply winning 2 of 3 (at HOME!!!!!!!) would've been enough, the AL Central is still in the air.
The White Sox host the Tigers in a makeup game today. If they lose, the Twins are AL Central champs, and visit Tampa on Thursday. If they win, they'll host the Twins Tuesday in a one-game playoff.

Most of you will be at work during the 1 p.m. game. I will not be.
Lucky for you, I'll be live blogging the game here, so follow along while avoiding work.

FUCK YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!

2008-09-25T23:44:00.000-05:00

We're almost there.

Advantage Twins

2008-09-24T01:33:00.000-05:00

It's amazing how much better things feel just from moving back into the Metrodome. As a fan, it's been hard to have much confidence that when you flipped on the tube over the last couple weeks you were going to see the Twins play well. Just seeing those gray uniforms gave you the sense that balls were going to be flying out of the park when a Twin was on the mound, and that their bats would be producing lots of grounders to second with runners on first.
But that sea of blue seats under the off-white artificial sky....suddenly the Twins are a good team again.
Tuesday night they were.
Credit is due to Ron Gardenhire. He had a decision to make at DH - Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer.
With righty Javier Vazquez on the mound, the standard option would be Kubel. But he entered the game 2 for 21 in his career against Vazquez, while Cuddyer was 12 for 31.
It seemed like just the kind of situation in which Gardy would outthink himself - go with the crusty, overrated veteran (yes, I'm calling Cuddyer all of those things) over the younger (but better) player.
But he didn't. He stuck with Kubel, who homered twice and tripled.
It's easy to credit him in hindsight. And I'm sure if Kubel had gone 0-for-4 many would've criticized Gardy for not going by the numbers. I myself would normally prefer going by the matchup stats, but with Cuddy less than 100 %, I was glad - yes, before the game - to see Kubel in the lineup (at this point Cuddyer is little more than a pinch-hitter, and it's unclear if he can even do that succesfully).
Hopefully the Twins didn't use up too many of their runs. I don't know if I belive in momentum in baseball, but they clearly seemed more ready to play than the Sox, and that's probably from being back at home. You get under the roof, and the Sox wilt while the Twins suddenly remember to be a good baseball team. And I don't think Ozzie Guillen's unpredictability seems to help them when they're in the Dome. He starts going crazy and his players just get swallowed up by the Dome quicker than usual.
So can they take it into Game 2? They have to. I really think the only way the Twins get in the playoffs is to run the table - 7 straight.
And Game 2 is the one to be nervous about. The Twins face Mark Buerhle, a lefty who they've occasionally hit hard, but also been dominated by many, many times.
He's 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA against the Twins in three starts this year - for his career he's 21-12 with a 3.85.
And longtime fans know, any time the Twins are going against a lefty - any lefty - there's a chance for one of those 1 run on 7 singles kind of nights.
The Twins counter with Nick Blackburn, who has an ERA of 10.22 over his last three starts, 6.57 over his last five. On the other hand, he has a 2.92 ERA in 13 starts at the Metrodome, so maybe he'll get back on track tonight.
He's gonna have to. As exciting as Tuesday's win was, it's just one win. They still have to win the next two.
Have to.

Welcome back, Eddie (and me)

2008-08-26T00:25:00.007-05:00

First off, thanks to all those who offered kind words over what was a tough couple weeks for me and my wife, although to be honest, I get the feeling I made it sound like things were worse than they actually were.
I'm fine. Definitely heart-broken about losing our baby, but there's plenty of time to make another go of it (he he), and the rest of that shit, well, I'm pretty much the greatest guy I know, so I'm sure I'll manage.

I was extremely excited to hear the Twins re-acquired Eddie Guardado today, and he went out and set the Mariners down 1-2-3 in the 8th.
So it only made perfect sense that when the Twins finally get the 8th squared away, Joe Nathan would blow the save in the 9th.
Even worse, Jesse Crain followed up a solid 10th inning by blowing it in the 11th.
Again.
I've been extremely patient with Crain, as he throws hard and is coming off a major injury, but he's really, really struggling right now, and I don't know how the Twins can really justify using him in any real meaningful situations. He's been terrible for the last month.
The good news is Matt Guerrier had a nice 7th, and Guardado should be solid in the 8th.
In 50.1 innings, Guardado has allowed only 38 hits and just three homers. Lefties hit just .167 against him, and righties only .252.
When you factor in that much of the damage he has allowed (including all three homers) came in Arlington (a decidedly hitter-friendly park) there's even more reason to think Guardado can be effective. More than anything, he's a guy who wants the ball and will attack hitters. That's what the Twins need.
Too bad they didn't land Latroy Hawkins, too. They said they were interested, but lost out to the Astros. In 10 games for Houston, Latroy is 2-0 with a 0 ERA, with 12 Ks in 7 innings.
That'd be nice to have.

On Sept. 1 rosters expand to a maximum of 40 (though most teams only add 4 or 5 guys).
The only guy I know for sure the Twins will call up is Bobby Korecky, who looked decent in a brief callup earlier this year and has a 2.90 ERA and 25 saves for the Red Wings. He could help down the stretch, and if he does, the Twins could probably squeeze him onto the playoff roster through an injury loophole.

It's worth noting also that Boof Bonser has shown signs of emerging as a decent reliever. I thought it was a waste to use him as a mopup guy while forcing Brian Bass into key situations, as Boof seems ideal for short relief. Throws hard, has one plus offspeed pitch, and in relief he can just come in and chuck it, not having to worry about pacing himself.

Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey, the two 'other' prospects the Twins acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade (besides blue-chippers Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra) have rebounded from slow starts to finish strong at Triple-A Rochester.
Humber is 9-8 with a 4.66 ERA, but in his last 10 apperances is 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA. That's huge, because his career had previously appeared headed in the wrong direction after Tommy John surgery.
Mulvey is 7-9 with a 3.73 ERA, and is 4-2 with a 3.28 ERA in his last 10 games.
Both of them have a good chance to be called up.

Guerra, by the way, has regressed. In his second full year at high A ball, he's 11-8, but with a 5.26 ERA, and a frighteningly low strikeout rate (68 in 126 innings, with 70 walks). He's still only 19, but the numbers are reason for concern at the very least.

A sleeper candidate for a callup is Anthony Swarzak. Since being called up from Double-A New Britain, he's made six starts for the Red Wings, going 5-0 with a 1.89 ERA.
He's only 22 and those six starts represent his only experience above the Double-A level, but the numbers speak for themselves.
On top of that, he was 3-8 with a 5.76 ERA at New Britain.
Weird.
Looking even lower, lefty Robert Delaney has a 1.11 ERA with 38 Ks and only five walks in 32 innings for New Britain, but I doubt they're interested in having him skip Triple-A to join a pennant race and start his arbitration clock.

To make room for Eddie G., the Twins cut Mike Lamb, who said he was "embarrassed for getting fired".
Lamb was bad, no doubt about it, but of all the Twins failed free-agent signings this year, he was the most defensible. He'd posted an OPS of over .800 three out of the last four years. Last year he had a very robust .366 OBP and .453 slugging percentage. And he's still only 33.
There was just no reason to think he wouldn't provide pretty solid production. It just didn't happen.
And now the Twins have to pay him $3.3 million next year.

I'm Thinking About It

2008-08-12T00:54:00.002-05:00

Bringing back Twinstown, that is.
As you may know, my Argus Leader blog is no longer accessible. I will not get into the reasons here. There has been some talk that it may be revived at some point, but frankly, I don't know if I'm interested in doing that.

That would, of course, mean that the door has been cracked open on coming back here on a somewhat regular basis.
We'll see.

A big reason I put this blog on hiatus is that it didn't feel like anyone was reading it. I don't really feel like spending an hour each night putting something together for four people. The Argus blog was getting thousands of hits, so there was a little more motivation to keep it updated.
And to be honest, I'm hesitant to advertise Twins Town too much, for obvious reasons. Getting thousands of people here would probably land me in even more trouble.

Over the last couple months I've nearly been fired, found out my wife was pregnant, decided to retire from amateur baseball following the season, taken the Roadrunners to the state tournament (still ongoing), suffered the crushing blow of a miscarriage while away from my wife in Rapid City getting drunk with my teammates, all the while considering just where the hell my adulthood is actually headed.

So, like I said, I'm thinking about it.

Time for a breather

2008-06-24T11:56:00.003-05:00

You had to see this coming.
With the newpaper industry in the toilet, as free websites and blogs slice into subscriptions at an alarming rate, there has been more of a need for me to focus on my other blog, the one I get paid (sort of) to do.
And as you've certainly noticed, keeping up two blogs has been difficult for me.
So I'm going to make the break here at Twinstown official.
I'm not officially quitting, and I'm not going to take the blog down. You never know when something will come up that I can't write about (the way I want to, anyway) on the Argus site.
But regular updates will continue to be few and far between.

I'm not really going away, though. My Argus blog is basically the same as this one, just without the F-words, and, admittedly, with stuff about local Sioux Falls sports a lot of people probably don't care about. But if you can wade through that stuff, I still think it's a worthwhile place to stop by on your morning rounds through the internet.
Now that I'm officially taking time off from this blog, I'll try to include more Twins stuff at the Argus site .

The one thing I've noticed about blogs, even some of the best ones, is that it's a lot more work than people realize, and you're starting to see more and more bloggers get burned out on it. I mean, once someone offers you money to blog somewhere else, it's hard to keep going on the one you do for free.
So I guess we're all a bunch of sellouts after all.

Miller Time

2008-06-13T01:19:00.002-05:00

For the second year in a row, I'm heading to Milwaukee for the Twins/Brewers series, though it's not part of a honeymoon this time. Just an excuse to get hammered and waste money.
Turns out a bunch of friends from town are also making the trip, so there's a chance to do some serious "tailgating".
And lucky for me, the Twins are heading to Miller Park on a hot streak, having won 1 of their last 8 games.
I might not be exactly correct on this, but I believe the Twins ERA over the last two weeks is 344.89.
Last year they limped into Miller, but got healthy. Maybe I'll get lucky, which would be nice, since there will be as many Twins fans there as Brewers fans.

A great weekend

2008-06-09T01:00:00.002-05:00

This was really a pretty good weekend for the Twins.

*Delmon Young hit his first home run. He's now only two behind Alexi Casilla, who is slightly larger than my right nut (notice how people always compare things to their left nut? Well my right nut is bigger, so I'm going with that one).
*Michael Cuddyer hit his third homer. Jason Kubel hit his 7th.
*Carlos Gomez made a really awesome, full-throttle diving catch even with the team down 12-1.
*The aforementioned Casilla hit another homer, and moved closer to his first AL batting title. (This guy was hitting .210 in Triple-A when they called him up, and now he's hitting .342/.393/.519.
In the majors.
What. The. Hell.
*Speaking of batting titles, Matt Macri upped his averaged to .429.
*Mike Redmond got some hits, and now he's hitting .310.
*Craig Breslow, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Dennys Reyes all quietly continued to throw well. Juan Rincon continued to be awful, and practically begged for his release when questioned by reporters.
I get why they don't want to get rid of Rincon. He's making $2.4 million, and they don't want to just eat it.
But really, what sense does that make? You have to pay him either way, and aren't you getting more for your money by replacing him (and hence improving the team) then stubbornly throwing him out there just because you already paid for it?

So, anyway, back to all the positives from this weekend.
Uh...Delmon Young homered.
Yep, it was a pretty good weekend.

Delmon's streak ends

2008-05-30T00:37:00.002-05:00

Delmon Young has been bad so far, and there have been calls to give him a day off. Ron Gardenhire continued to resist, saying Delmon "likes to play".
I probably don't need to point out what a lame cop-out that is. I'd like to play LF every day for the Twins, too. That's not a good enough reason to put a guy in the lineup.

It sure smelled a lot like Gardy was afraid of Delmon. The young Young has a history of losing his temper on occasion, and while he's behaved for the most part since joining the Twins, his short and curt interviews suggested that there was still something of a loose cannon sizzling beneath the surface.
But after a really rough couple of weeks, it was clear that Delmon could probably benefit from a day or three to take a step back and watch things, so Gardy sucked it up and wrote out a lineup card that didn't have Delmon's name on it, ending his streak of 217 consecutive games played.
Reporters requested to visit with Young before the game, and he refused. This smelled like trouble. But after the game, Young seemed to be responding the way you'd hope.

"I’ll take a day off any time,” he told the Strib. “I’ve been having days off (playing badly), except my stats keep going down,” he said. “This one, stays even.”

Asked if Tuesday’s inside-the-park play was on his mind when he missed Alex Gordon’s fly ball Wednesday, he said, “I just flat-out missed that ball. The night before doesn’t really bother me after about 30 seconds go by.”

Whether or not Delmon Young is nice to reporters has nothing to do with whether or not he'll ever realize his potential, but the fact that he took his first benching well is definitely a good sign. I know I'm not alone in having sensed recently that Delmon's cranky attitude was starting to become a concern, and that could be a factor in his development as a player.

I feel a little better today about his chances of figuring it out. Maybe he gets it after all.

Turd in the punch bowl

2008-05-29T00:35:00.003-05:00

I didn't see any of the Twins 9-8 come from behind win over the Royals. I was in Vermillion playing third base for the Roadrunners, who opened their season with an 11-6 win (I doubled off the wall in my first at-bat of the season - I rule).

I was pretty excited when I heard what happened, and have spent the last 20 minutes or so combing through the box score and reading reaction from other blogs (my favorite is this one, from Royals blogger Rany Jazayerli). I can only imagine what kind of verbal orgasm Dick Bremer had on the air when the Twins put their 9th inning rally together, and I'm glad I didn't hear it.

And I hate, really hate to say it, but all I can see are the negatives. Yes, Craig Monroe and Justin Morneau hit big homers, but that's not a huge surprise. Yes, Brendan Harris and Mike Lamb both had good days at the plate as they continue to push their numbers north, but that shouldn't be a huge shock, either.

I was hoping to see that Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer had had big games, maybe even homered. I was hoping that Joe Mauer had maybe gone deep.

I wasn't hoping to see that Cuddyer, Young and Mauer were all hitless. I wasn't hoping that Young committed two errors in LF one night after nearly costing the team a game with a misplay in the field. I wasn't hoping that Livan would give up 13 more hits (he's on pace to surrender over 300 on the year).

I couldn't help but notice that Matt Garza threw another gem for the first place Rays Wednesday night. Garza is now 4-1 with a 3.78 ERA.
Young is still, uh, young, but his poor performance thus far is troubling.

I wonder, at this point, if we won't look back at 2008 as the season that:
A - The Twins made one of the worst trades in their history (Garza-Bartlett for Young-Harris)
B - The Twins signed one of their worst contracts in their history (Cuddyer, 3-years, $24 million)
C - Pat Neshek's career ended.
D - Francisco Liriano's comeback failed

Am I being overly negative? Of course. There's still a lot going right with this team. But lately I've had a hard time ignoring how many things are going wrong.

Weird game...

2008-05-20T01:33:00.002-05:00

I went to Iron Man last night, so I didn't see much of the Twins game. I picked it up in the 9th, with the Twins trailing 6-5, and quickly surmised that it had been a strange game up until then.
Brendan Harris was at short, Michael Cuddyer had started in center, and soon Bobby Korecky was batting.
In just the couple innings I watched, I came to a few conclusions.
*I'd like to say it's time for Juan Rincon to go, but with Pat Neshek on the DL, and with Rincon under contract for over $2 million, it wouldn't make much sense to cut him. But he just can't be used in any meaningful situations anymore. He's terrible. Just use him in blowouts, and let him walk after the year.
*Luckily, we saw the official arrival of Korecky as soon as Rincon was mercifully given the hook. He worked 1.2 innings, and his big strikeout of Michael Young was damn near a Neshek moment.
Korecky isn't likely to become a dominant reliever, but his track record (3.07 ERA in the minors, with a modest strikeout rate) suggests he could be a decent setup guy.
*Boof Bonser is running out of time to convince us he won't ultimately be better suited for the bullpen (I know he had a decent outing but I think the point remains). He's got a good fastball, a good curve and good control, but with so many other good arms in the minors, it's wouldn't be fair to let Boof keep struggling for a whole 'nother year.
*Cuddyer has really only had one good year. In 2006 he hit .284/.362/.504, but last year he slipped to .276/.356/.433, and this year he's been godawful, hitting .226 after an 0-for-6 effort last night.
Why were they willing to sign this guy to a 3-year, $24 million deal, but when it came to Torii Hunter and Johan Santana (two far better and far more proven commodities) there wasn't enough money (not so much this past year, but before that)? Dare I bring race into it? I think it's worth asking.
*I'll get into it in more detail later, but it appears that Ron Gardenhire is ready to give up on the Mike Lamb/Brendan Harris/Adam Everett infield.
In itself that wouldn't be such a bad thing, as it has indeed been a failure, but when you consider the alternatives available to him, it's downright terrifying to think what the future could hold for the Twins infield.
Stay tuned.

The Struggling Twins Hitters

2008-05-15T00:30:00.002-05:00

It's kind of funny to me that the Twins nice little run over the last couple weeks has prompted some to act as though the Twins offense suddenly doesn't suck.
Newsflash: The Twins offense sucks.

There are three Twins right now who are producing: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Craig Monroe.

Mauer is actually having an outstanding season, while Morneau has been pretty solid since a slow start. Monroe is on a hot streak, and it's hard to say how much to expect from him as the season progresses.

Brendan Harris got off to a good start, but a recent slump has knocked his numbers near Punto-ville. Carlos Gomez seems to be getting better every day, and it's impossible to be disappointed with what he's done so far, considering how far from ready he was when the season began. Matt Tolbert's numbers will continue to decline the more he plays. Nick Punto has been non-terrible because he hasn't played very much.

Everyone else has been fairly terrible. A blow-by-blow look at the Twins hitters.

*Mauer
Hitting .331 with a .414 OBP entering Wednesday. If he keeps those numbers at that level, I won't complain if he doesn't hit a homer all year. Well, OK, I will, but a .414 OBP is more valuable than most people seem to realize. The guy doesn't make very many outs.
Through 10 games in May he's hitting .424 with a .548 OBP. Also encouraging is that he's hitting .357 against lefties this year, after struggling with southpaws last year.
The problem with Mauer isn't that he doesn't hit for enough power, it's that Ron Gardenhire insists on batting him 3rd. He should be leading off, but even the 2-hole would make more sense.
How's this for a stat: When leading off an inning, Mauer is hitting .450/.560/.650.

*Morneau
Also heating up (.341 in May before Wednesday), he's on pace to fall short of 30 homers, but looks a lot better than the guy that limped to the finish line last year. He's hitting .250 with decent power against lefties, but has only a .265 OBP. That means he can hit lefties when he's not chasing their bad pitches. If Morneau can improve his patience, he can boost his numbers from Fred McGriff territory to Jason Giambi territory (the version from a few years ago).

*Harris
Loved him early, but he's slumped badly of late. He has some pop, but, oddly, has been horrible against lefties (.200/.294/.200). He's hitting .156 in May, and is hitting .129 with RISP. He has been better against power pitchers (.261) than finesse pitchers (.204), which probably explains why he's struggling against lefties. He's hit pretty consistently in the past, so I'm going to keep my fingers crossed that he's just in a slump (you'll hear that again a few more times).

*Adam Everett
He has sucked, but we knew he would. Still, he needs to get his average to at least .240, even if his OBP and SLG numbers are poor. The glove has been pretty good since he came off the DL.

*Mike Lamb
The new whipping boy amongst Twins fans, Lamb has yet to homer, he's shown very little patience, and he appears to be pressing. He's been a little better of late, but it's starting to get far enough into the season that you have to stop calling it a slump and wonder if the guy just isn't going to get it done.
The Twins signed Lamb planning to give him his first shot at an everyday job, but it looks like there's a reason the Astros and Rangers never gave him 500 ABs.
Lamb has been halfway decent against lefties throughout his career, but this year he's 1-for-17. Against righties he's at .267, and more impressively, he's hitting a whopping .435/.407/.609 with RISP.
He's posted a .250 BABIP (average on balls in play), suggesting he's been a little unlucky, too.
Lamb signed a two-year contract, and the Twins top 3B prospects are all a few years away, so the smart play would be to keep playing him, at least against righties, and hope he breaks out of it. The numbers suggest he will.

*Tolbert
I keep waiting for him to fall on his face, and he hasn't, although his numbers have steadily declined since a fast start (he's already down to .274/.312/.356). Tolbert is not an option to be a starter at any position right now, and probably not ever. But he looks capable of carving out a Reboulet-like career as a useful utility guy.
Having said that, he should get plenty of starts at 3B against lefties until Lamb shows he can hit southpaws. Tolbert has hit .320/.346/.400 against lefties this year.

*Punto
It was obvious last year that Punto lost all of his confidence as his nightmare season continued to get worse. But he's been decent this year, hitting .265. Hopefully that's boosted his confidence a little bit. Fans continue to blame Punto for nearly everything that goes wrong with the Twins, but he's done nothing to hurt them this year (though he hasn't really done anything to help them, either).

*Gomez
He's no longer trying to bunt every time up, and it turns out he's a decent hitter (.275). He has a .360 BABIP, so cutting down on the strikeouts would help. He isn't nearly patient enough to bat leadoff, and I'm starting to wonder if, when he gets older, he'll be a guy who can hit in the 2 or 3 hole (which would allow Mauer to bat leadoff). He's been terrible in the OF (he already has more errors than Torii Hunter ever had in a season), but has 16 steals and 3 homers. He'll only get better, so, as mentioned earlier, it's hard to complain. Before the year, I would've put the odds of him posting an OPS above the league average at 1 in 50 (right now his OPS+ is 101).

*Michael Cuddyer
After a sub-par '07, Cuddyer keeps on hitting like a guy who should be batting eighth. Not much power, way too many infield popups. In '06, when Cuddyer had his career year (.284/24 homers/109 RBI) he struck out 130 times. Last year he struck out 107 times, and this year he's struck out 11 times in 80 ABs.
If he's made a conscious effort to make more contact, it's made him less effective.

*Delmon Young
So far, a huge disappointment. To be fair, Torii Hunter was hitting .220 in Double-A when he was Young's age, so it's about five years too early to even think about giving up on the guy.
But his poor start is disappointing nonetheless.
A .299 slugging percentage? .299???? Punto currently has a .347 slugging percentage.
Young's average and OBP have been slowly but steadily climbing of late, but he has to start elevating on some balls. He hits the ball on the ground even more than Mauer. He ranks last in the league in isolated power, and is hitting just .200 against lefties (let's face it, no one on the Twins can hit lefties).
Young has defended himself by saying that he always gets off to slow starts, including last year. True, he was hitting in the .220's at this time a year ago, but had already hit 4 of his 13 homers by now.
Young may end up being a true test of the Twins coaching staff, which is often accused of being unable to develop hitters. They absolutely have to get this guy hitting.

*Monroe
He's revived his life-support career with a recent hot streak. He's supposed to be the righthanded half of a platoon with Jason Kubel, but he's hitting .148 against lefties, and all four of his homers are off righties. That has obviously made Gardy's job more difficult.
One thing we do know is that Monroe's bat speed is still in question. He's hitting .050 against power pitchers, .441 against finesse pitchers (those numbers are consistent with his career splits).

*Kubel
Just when he finally got his chance, he went cold. He's probably getting close to make-or-break time, especially with Monroe hitting well.
But after an 0-for-15 slump, he hit a pinch-homer Tuesday and doubled twice Wednesday.
He has been hitting balls hard, even during his slump, as evidenced by his .242 BABIP (before Wednesday). My guess is Monroe will start to cool off, and Kubel's line drives will start to fall in.

Summary: Way too many Twins hitter are underachieving. But Cuddyer, Kubel, Lamb, Harris and Young all seem capable, if not likely, to make considerable improvements as the year progresses. It's just too bad they're taking so long to get going, because the pitching has overachieved. They could have a 5 or 6 game lead if some of these guys would hit like they're supposed to.

I Really Hate the Red Sox (Fans)

2008-05-12T00:13:00.003-05:00

As long as I've been going to Twins games, the only opposing team that ever brought a lot of fans to the Metrodome was the New York Yankees. It was something I had gotten used to.
Then this weekend I was in Minny for the Twins/Red Sox series, and was exposed to an impressive display of douchebaggery (fun fact - my computer's spell checker did not object to the word 'douchebaggery'. Apparently that's a word).

The Dome was crawling with Red Sox fans. Dumb ones.
People that weren't on this bandwagon before 2004. People who have never heard of Wade Boggs, let alone Carl Yastrzemski. People who were there simply to be seen, wearing their cute scruffy, frat-boy style Red Sox hats and their Irish green T-shirts. None of them wear the navy blue replica caps, they all wear the tight-fitting gray ones with the stockings on the back (see picture of douches), because for these people, being a Sox fan is a fad, and these hats are the primary part of it.
This team obviously has a very real and loyal fan-base, but none of them were at the Dome this weekend.

All of which made the Twins victories on Friday and Sunday pretty enjoyable.
I was there for a bachelor party, and when it became apparent that we weren't going to win Saturday, we kicked the drinking into high gear so we'd forget what happened - it worked.
I talked our crew into staying to the end Friday, as I correctly predicted that Jonathan Papelboner would blow the save. When he did, we were not above yelling at 11-year old Sox fans to "Get the fuck out of our dome!" Yeah, we're not very mature. But we won. On Friday anyway.

Some notes on the weekend, as the Twins finish the 4-game series today.
*I have a hunch the Twins, in the long run, won't miss Pat Neshek as much as some people think. The Twins system is loaded with pitching talent, and they can't all be starters. Neshek's injury will give someone else an opportunity. Relievers are fairly easy to find.
With his funky delivery, I have always had my doubts about how long Neshek's career will last.
Maybe he'll come back 100%, and I hope he does. But if he doesn't, I wouldn't be surprised, or terribly worried.

*Nick Punto going on the DL, on the other hand, will really hurt the Twins. Just kidding.
I'm sure Ron Gardenhire is losing sleep wondering how he can be expected to put together lineups without Punto's .322 career slugging percentage, but not having him for 15 days will mean more at-bats for the exceedingly impressive Matt Tolbert, and it will also give Alexi Casilla a chance to come back up and hopefully regain some confidence. Casilla was so bad last year that he'd fallen almost off the prospect radar, but the Twins' organizational dearth of shortstops (the Twins have declared Casilla a shortstop now, suggesting they might consider Harris a candidate for a long-term contract), means he's still got a chance to get out of the doghouse and once again become a significant part of the team's future plans.

*Craig Monroe was so bad last year that he almost ended up out of baseball. He said it was just a bad year, many speculated that he was finished. GM Bill Smith took a gamble that Monroe was right and would bounce back, and he has. Credit to Monroe and Billy-boy ($3.8 million is still too much, though).

*I was almost positive that Mike Lamb was going to get the game-winning hit against Papelbon Friday. He was just so due that I knew it would happen. Lamb's average is up to .238, and while he still hasn't shown much pop, I remain convinced he will be in the .270-15 homer range by years end.

*I know Juan Rincon has been terrible numbers-wise for the last couple years, but the guy seems to have no luck at all. It seems like he's given up more hits on seeing eye grounders than anyone on the staff. Of course, back when he was good he just struck everybody out.

*Very impressive start from Glen Perkins (although it's kind of pathetic that he gave up a 450-footer to Coco Crisp). The next time you find yourself bitching about the Twins, consider this: The Twins have at least 10 pitching prospects, maybe more, who would be the No. 1 pitching prospect in another organization.

Credit where credit is due

2008-05-07T22:58:00.002-05:00

I don't do this often, but I have to give Ron Gardenhire some credit here.
A few weeks ago, Carlos Gomez was, statistically, if not competitively, the worst player in the major leagues. The batting average barely over .200, the OBP right around there as well, with strikeouts, bad at-bats and bad plays in the field wiping out his occasional flashes of brilliance, which were largely limited to stealing second in the few instances he was able to reach base.

The StarTrib's Joe Christensen noted that Gomez was "dangerously overmatched", and suggested that a trip back to the minors might be best.
I wasn't quite ready to send him back to Triple-A, but suggested that another week of terrible play would be enough to do the trick, writing:
"It's still early, but you have to wonder if eventually Gomez would be better served to go back to Triple-A (where he's played a total of 36 games in his entire life) for awhile."

Gardenhire no doubt saw what the rest of us were seeing, but showed the kind of perspective and patience that has served him well throughout his managerial career (yes, I can admit it, there are some things Gardy does well).
He didn't overreact to a bad week and send Gomez to the minors, but he also didn't stubbornly pretend that the kid wasn't struggling. He decided to just give Gomez a day off.
He homered in his first at-bat of the next game, and since then is hitting .430 (13-for-30), which of course, was capped off by him becoming the first Twin to hit for the cycle since Kirby Puckett 22 years ago.
Gardy has done right by this kid so far, and that's encouraging.

Gomez is still very far from a finished product. He still has a poor on-base percentage, and still doesn't seem to know how to field ground balls/line drives in the outfield.
But it's pretty clear that he's got a chance to be awfully good.

Goin' Good

2008-05-06T11:08:00.002-05:00

The Twins 16-14 record isn't all that impressive by itself. But they're in first place by 1.5 games, and more importantly, they're 12-6 in the division.

Just how important is that? Last year, the Twins were a more than respectable 51-39 against teams outside the AL Central. But against divisional opponents they were a miserable 28-44. That cost them a chance to compete for the postseason.
If the Twins can continue to hold their own against Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and yes, Kansas City, they just might be able to stay in this thing.

A big reason for that is the pitching. It is still, five weeks into the season, outperforming expectations. Boof Bonser's start on Sunday can't be overstated. Shaking off a six-run first inning that was as much due to bad luck as anything, to put up 5 zeros, is veteran/ace type stuff, and another sign that Boof and Scott Baker could form a solid tandem at the top of the rotation.

In the bullpen, Brian Bass has pitched very well of late, while Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain seem to be shaping up. Dennys Reyes is back to his '06 form, and Joe Nathan is Joe Nathan. It's still too early to be worried about Pat Neshek's minor struggles.

Other positives:
*Craig Monroe looks like he's shaken off his terrible 2007 season, and just might end up being a productive player this year (even if he is overpaid at $3.8 million).
*Joe Mauer is getting on base a lot.
*Carlos Gomez has been much better since the Twins started giving him a day off here and there.
*Justin Morneau is hitting like a cleanup hitter should.
*Adam Everett appears to be back to his old self in the field.
*Matt Tolbert has been a steady bench guy.

But, to quote Winston Wolf, Let's not start (expletive) each other's (expletive) yet.
This is still a flawed team.
Baker is going to the DL, and I'm still waiting for Nick Blackburn to start taking some lumps when the league catches up to him. Livan Hernandez has been hit hard in his last few starts, even the one Friday night when he only gave up a run. Glen Perkins is apparently going to be called up to replace Baker, and you never know what you'll get there (he does have a 2.97 ERA in Rochester). Kevin Slowey is back in the rotation after a month on the DL, which sounds like a recipe for some long balls.

Jason Kubel is getting to play every day, and while he's driving some extra base hits here and there, he's getting on base at a putrid rate.
Delmon Young and Mike Lamb have been no better at the plate than Nick Punto.

Of course, maybe that's reason for optimism, rather than pessimism. If Kubel was hitting .300, if and if Young and Lamb were both slugging over .450, the Twins would be looking even better. There's still a chance those things will happen eventually, so perhaps we have not yet hit the high-water mark.

May I call you Rondellmon?

2008-04-27T23:50:00.003-05:00

It's early, so I'm not going to write anyone off. But while most of my friends and fellow Twins fans bitch and moan about Mike Lamb (he'll end up at .275 with 15 homers, so quit bitching) and Joe Mauer (he's never going to hit homers, deal with it), I find myself wondering when Delmon Young is going to put up numbers that are better than Nick Punto's.
OK, that's pushing it, but Delmon is currently getting out-OPS'd by Johan Santana. So are the Twins as a team, actually.

Last year in Tampa, Young hit .288 with 93 RBI, and those are two numbers that would indicate he had a good-but-not-great season. And at his age, it would stand to reason he's only going to get better. I've written that myself, and I still believe it to be true.
On the other hand, .288 isn't all that great when it comes with only 26 walks. That's a .316 OBP, and that's not very good. In addition he had only 13 homers, and he played in all 162 games. The guy had 645 at-bats. 13 homers in 645 ABs? I think Boof Bonser would hit more than 13 bombs if he got that many chances.

Young has been compared to various hall of fame players (always unfair, no matter how good a young guy actually is) and many, including myself, speculated that he might be able to cover Torri Hunter's offense as soon as this year. But he actually is closer to Carlos Gomez than Torii Hunter at this point. You can see the talent, but he just looks really raw. Not very patient with a very long swing. So far he's basically filled the void left by Rondell White.
Through 93 ABs entering play Sunday, DY had a miserable .289 OBP and even worse .312 slugging percentage. No homers, 3 doubles and a triple. And if my memory serves me correct, two of those three doubles came because he hustled against lazy OF's to get an extra base on a single. It's great that he did that, but it shows his power numbers could be even worse.

Now you can chalk it all up to his youth, and for now, I'll probably do that myself in the interest of staying positive with a young prospect. But in looking at his minor league numbers, it's clear that the higher Young has climbed, the less he's hit for power.
He hit 25 homers in the Sally League (A+) in 2004, then hit 20 dongs in only 84 games at Double-A in '05, at the age of 19. To be doing that at 19 is really impressive, and that's why, at the time, he was arguably the top hitting prospect in all of baseball.
But when he moved to Triple-A, he stopped hitting home runs.
6 homers in 52 games in 2005. 8 in 86 games in 2006. And 13 in 645 at-bats last year.

If Young doesn't hit homers, he won't be nearly as valuable, because he doesn't get on base much and doesn't play a premium defensive position. Torii Hunter never had a great OBP, but because he hit 25-30 homers and was a Gold Glove CF, his on-base skills didn't much matter.

Think of it this way. Joe Mauer's lack of power is annoying, yes. But he usually has a .400 OBP and is one of the best defensive players in the league at the most difficult position in the sport.

Imagine Young hitting .300 with 8 homers just like Mauer, but doing it in left field, with a .325 OBP. Would you trade the best pitching prospect in your organization for that?

Not ready, but it's not a big deal yet

2008-04-25T02:02:00.003-05:00

It's hard to imagine Francisco Liriano's third start with the Twins going any worse.
2/3 of an inning, five hits, three walks and six runs. A total disaster.
By the time you read this, the Twins will have announced that Liriano is going back to Triple-A Rochester, with Red Wings closer Bobby Korecky getting called up to give the Twins 'pen another arm. With a few off days coming up, the Twins will probably be able to survive without a fifth starter until Kevin Slowey is ready to come off the DL.

It was clear that Liriano wasn't ready for a call-up, and the Rochester coaching staff warned the Twins that was the case, but they called him up anyway.
Even though he wasn't ready it still made some sense. The Twins wanted to be able to keep tabs on Liriano themselves. To be able to monitor his habits daily. That's understandable.
So if they still wanted to do that, they could just move Liriano to the bullpen and use him as a mop-up guy.

But apparently confidence is as much the issue as anything physical, so maybe a trip back to the minors makes sense. The most important thing, as Ron Gardenhire stated after the game, is that Liriano just keeps throwing. It doesn't really matter where. But for right now, going down to the minors can't be a bad thing.

There's really no reason to be surprised by any of this. Liriano didn't throw for, what, 19 months? What do you expect? Of course he won't have any command, or bite on his breaking pitches.

Surely the idea that Liriano will ever return to his former self is in doubt, but that was already the case as soon as he had TJ surgery. Nothing that has happened in these first couple months of his comeback have made a full recovery any more or less likely.

Notes from a nice win

2008-04-23T00:20:00.005-05:00

I hate it when the Twins play in Oakland. Not so much because of how late it gets, but because of the incredibly annoying extraneous sounds that can be heard during the broadcast. Trumpets, harmonicas, whistles...what the hell? It drives me nuts.

But Tuesday it was worth it to tolerate those noises as the Twins posted an entertaining win, one that was spearheaded by Craig Monroe.
Monroe entered the game 7-for-11 in his career against Oakland starter Joe Blanton, and upped that to 10-for-14 (a .714 average) by singling, doubling and homering off Blanton.

The addition of Monroe has been widely criticized, and justifiably so. Teams like the Twins have no business paying platoon players $3.8 million. But the good news is Monroe has been showing signs that he may bounce back from last year's nightmare season. He's probably not ever going to repeat his 2006 season when he hit 28 homers and was a key member of the Tigers' run to the World Series, but he can give the Twins a dangerous bench bat, something they haven't really had in recent years.
And give credit to Ron Gardenhire for, so far, using Monroe optimally. I have to say I've been impressed with the way Gardy has managed his lineups and used his bench so far this season.

*Mike Lamb has gotten on the bad side of many impatient blog commenters around the web with his slow start, but it's silly to worry about him, or to suggest that he should lose his job. He went 3-for-4 Tuesday, and while only one of those three hits was hit particularly well, bumping his average could bump him out of his funk.

Unlike many of the stiffs the Twins have tried to pass off in recent years, Lamb actually has a track record, which is why Ron Coomer correctly scoffed when Anthony LaPanta asked him in the post game show if Lamb's slow start was a concern.
Lamb has had seven full seasons in the big leagues, and he put up the following numbers in those years:

YR Avg OBP SLG
00 .278 .328 .373
01 .306 .348 .412
02 .283 .354 .411
04 .288 .356 .511
05 .236 .284 .419
06 .307 .361 .475
07 .289 .366 .453

Yes, his 2005 stats are a red flag, but every other year, he was a reliable, solidly above average major league hitter. He will hit.

*On the other hand, it's official. Carlos Gomez sucks.
Calm down, now, I'm not giving up on him or anything. I think he has a chance to be great. His potential appears limitless.
But he is so not ready. Tuesday he was 0-for-5 with 4 Ks. He swings at everything. He has no approach at the plate. He's a poor bunter, and he bunts all the time.
He's now hitting .233/.250/.314, for a horrific .564 OPS. In 20 games he has 23 strikeouts, and 2 walks. Not the K/BB ratio you look for in a leadoff guy.

And while the catch he made Sunday afternoon was indeed impressive, Gomez has so far been a liability on defense as well. He takes absolutely horrendous angles to balls in the gap (both in the air and on the ground), which has already turned a few singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He also has yet to harness his impressive throwing arm, missing the cutoff man as often as he guns someone down.

Now. The fact that Gomez has played every inning so far is certainly defensible. The Twins are rebuilding this year, and Gomez is gaining valuable experience.
Why not let him play every day and work through his rough edges, right?

But the thing is, learning on the job doesn't have to be done at the big league level. In fact, sometimes it might be better off not to do it that way.
Torii Hunter spent all of 1999 in the big leagues, and struggled some (.255/.309/.380). When he struggled again in 2000 he was sent back to Triple A. But when he came back he pounded the ball, and hit 26 homers in 2001, the first of his several year run of being a solid major league slugger.

If Gomez is allowed to flail away for too long in the majors, it could hurt his confidence and affect his long term progression. It's still early, but you have to wonder if eventually Gomez would be better served to go back to Triple-A (where he's played a total of 36 games in his entire life) for awhile.

*Nice work by the Vikings picking up Jared Allen, the league's sack leader a year ago with 15.5 (also he wears No. 69. He he.). Considering the Vikings would've just ended up with another Duane Clemons or Fernando Smith with the draft pick, I strongly support the trade. NFL teams overvalue their draft picks.

*Speaking of the NFL and trades, how awesome is it that the Bengals would rather make Chad Johnson sit out the season then let him get his way, even if it means turning down decent trade offers? The Skins offered the Bengals a first and third round pick for the guy, and the Bengals basically said, 'No we want to screw this guy, even if it would help our team to make this trade.'
Chad Johnson is a fucking dick. I hate him. He sucks.

Minor matters

2008-04-21T02:36:00.002-05:00

Two players that a large percentage of Twins fans have ripped on heavily in recent years are Scott Baker and Jason Kubel.

Fans (the dumb ones) tend to get really worked up about prospects that they hear about on the minor league reports on TV and the radio, but when those prospects don't pan out quickly enough for their liking, they're amazingly quick to give up on them. They start complaining that they'll never amount to anything, that they're bums, and that (fill in the name of an overrated journeyman) should be playing in their spot.

But the Twins have been patient with Baker and Kubel (in Kubel's case too patient), and now they're both emerging. After 7 excellent innings against Cleveland Sunday, Baker's ERA is 3.51. He fanned 8 and walked one. If Brendan Harris could've turned a DP, it would've been a shutout. Going back to the middle of last year, Baker has been pitching like an ace for a long enough stretch that it's now safe to think he's got the potential to be at least a good No. 2 type starter, maybe a No. 1.

And Kubel, playing every day, continues to hit well. He's second on the team in HR and RBI, and two more hits Sunday pushed his average to .266. I was sure that last year would be his breakout year, and, even though he finished strong, it didn't really happen. This year, it looks like he's well on his way. (And by breakout year, I mean .285 with 20 to 25 homers and 80 to 100 RBIs.)

What is the lesson here? Patience yes, but more so, to pay attention to minor league stats. If a guy has put up fantastic numbers in the minors he's got an excellent chance to put up numbers in the big leagues. So you show those guys plenty of patience.
Kubel hit .320/.385/.499 in his minor league career, and Baker posted a 2.99 ERA with 408 Ks and just 97 walks in 482 innings in his.

It's almost stunning to think of all the people last year who wanted Jason Tyner and even Lew Ford playing over Kubel. And who couldn't understand why Baker was getting another callup.

Now it should be sinking in, and it really shouldn't be viewed as a surprise by anyone who's been paying attention.

Same shit, different day

2008-04-15T22:31:00.003-05:00

You know....Aw, forget it.
I don't have the energy. These last two days have sucked dog balls.
I just hope the picture on the right (similar to the one from yesterday, no?) doesn't get too familiar.

The Tigers will be talking about this game in October

2008-04-14T21:59:00.004-05:00

Well, at least we've got a lot to talk about.

First off, this loss doesn't hurt quite as much for me as you might think, because nothing in the Twins first 12 games did anything to change my mind about this year's team. They're a .500 team. Blowing a five-run lead would kill me if I thought it had a chance to cost the Twins a pennant, but this team ain't winning no pennant, so, you know. BFD.

What sucks about this loss is you know its the kind we're going to hear about forever. Because you know, you just know, the Tigers are back now. This is exactly what they needed - an emotional, come from behind win at home.
I'm not saying this game will cause an immediate turnaround, because the Tigers were going to get going eventually anyway. But you know when they do, they'll be telling local and national media about how it was that big comeback against the Twins that did the trick, especially since Jim Leyland supposedly ripped his guys Sunday night. That had nothing to do with the Twins choking, but it sounds good in the paper, right?

No, the Tigers won because the Twins gave the game away.
Here's how:
*Nick Blackburn fell apart. It would be easy to blame Ron Gardenhire for not having Matt Guerrier ready to go, but Blackburn fell apart so fast, there wasn't much he could do.
*Guerrier wasn't very good. He was leaving his pitches up and over the middle, and the Tigers hitters are way too good to do that against.
*Gardy left Guerrier in too long. When Gardy was asked about that afterwards he said, refreshingly, that Guerrier should be good enough to protect a five run lead without getting Neshek up. He's right. But he still could've had Jesse Crain or Juan Rincon ready to go, and either of them would've been a better option at that point, because Guerrier was getting thumped.
*Neshek was terrible. His slider had so little bite that it actually looked like an 82-mph fastball on screen. He was throwing puss right down the middle of the plate. The Rodriguez triple was especially frustrating. I-Rod almost always swings at the first pitch, so beginning an at-bat with a get-me-over hanger, whether intentional or not, is unforgivable.
*Gardy left Neshek in too long, too. I can understand trusting him and wanting to ride him, but Dennys Reyes or Joe Nathan could have at least been warming up.
*Denard Span should've caught that ball. Weak.
*Carlos Gomez might be fast, but he might also be, fundamentally, the worst CF in baseball. Watching him and Span try to cut off soft liners into the gap was embarrassing. If Torii Hunter's in CF, he cuts those balls off, and the game might still be going.
*Adam Everett appears to be, right now, the worst player in baseball. He can't hit (we knew that), but right now he can't throw it either. If he isn't fielding, and fielding extremely well, he's worthless.
*Nick Punto very nearly tied the game with an opposite field drive in the 9th, and he's showing signs of being less terrible at the plate, but I still think you've got to have Craig Monroe pinch hit there if you have Matt Tolbert ready to come in in the infield (they did).

About blogs

2008-04-14T02:12:00.002-05:00

In case you didn't already know, I've branched out to blogging professionally at argusleader.com, and today, instead of talking about the debut of Francisco Liriano (that was exactly what you expected from him anyway wasn't it?), I'll direct you to something that I think is relevant to anyone who takes the time to stop by here once in awhile: Blogging in America.

We'll return to your regularly scheduled Twinstown stuff tomorrow.

Bats Come Alive

2008-04-10T00:12:00.003-05:00

One game can often easily change the perception of a team or unit (in this case, the Twins offense).
A dozen runs and suddenly everyone feels better.
It's just one game, but there is plenty you can take from this one to make you feel a little better about this struggling lineup.
*Jason Kubel is going to play after all. Ever since the Twins overpaid for Craig Monroe, Ron Gardenhire seemed to be hinting that Kubel would lose ABs to Monroe, and that seemed to be confirmed when Monroe got the start on opening day at DH, even with a righty on the mound. But I'm starting to think that move was largely a pointed motivational tactic aimed at Kubel, who Gardy and others often complain doesn't "show enough fire".

I for one don't give a shit if a guy "shows fire" if he can play.
For example:
Nick Punto=Fire=Shitty. Alex Rodriguez=not that much fire=best player alive.

Kubel is no A-Rod, but he was the team's best hitter in the second half last year. And after driving in six runs with a double and a grand slam Wednesday night, Gardy had this to say:
"He's in the lineup to hit. I've always said I really believe this guy can hit. He's going to get plenty of opportunities this year. He got 450 at-bats last year, I think, and he's going to get more than that this year. He's healthy from his knee problems now and it's time to get his at-bats and go."

Is Gardy a hypocrite pulling a 180? Or has he planned all along to give Kubel the ABs he deserved, and just wanted to get his goat a little by benching him on opening day?
I'm guessing the latter. But it doesn't matter. What matters is that Kubel is apparently finally going to get his chance to play every day.

*Brendan Harris had two singles a double and a walk, and made another error.
He's obviously not much of a fielder, but he can hit. While many have wondered if his '07 numbers (.286, 12 homers, 35 doubles) were a fluke, it might be worth asking if that was just a start. Maybe he's just going to get better.
And while his defense is a concern, there's a chance the Twins can help him improve. It's a lot easier to get better as a fielder (especially at a non-impact position like 2B) than it is to learn how to hit.

*Mike Lamb had a single and a double, and appears to be warming up, though he did have to leave the game Wednesday with a bruised foot. Joe Mauer is hitting .323, and Justin Morneau is already up to .233 after an 0 for 16 start. And Morneau also has five walks (and just five strikeouts) in 9 games.

*Scott Baker may have given up 3 runs in 5 innings (that's a 5.40 ERA), but he pitched like an ace. How?
When spotted a 7-0 lead, he correctly realized that as long as he didn't give up any free passes and kept the baserunners to a minimum, there was no way the White Sox could win. Where alot of pitchers would've continued to pitch carefully (because they're worried about their ERA), Baker went right at the hitters, and allowed three homers. All were solos. None were a factor in the game. That is how you pitch with a lead.

*The good news never ends. Matt Garza had to leave his last start with Tampa and has been put on the DL with radial nerve irriation. He claims it was something that started to bother him late last year. That might not make the D-Rays too happy, and Gardy took exception to Garza's suggestion.

"Wasn't he healthy all spring for them?" Gardenhire said. "So now he's going to say he was hurt earlier? That's not good."

"He never missed a bullpen [session] or a start [here]. I don't know what he's saying. I haven't read it and don't plan on reading it, just based on what you said. Everything was documented on Matt Garza and there were no injuries here."

"If he said he was hurt, I'm not going to call him a liar or anything like that. But he should have let us know that he might have had an injury. Normally, it's good when the team you are pitching for knows that. But I doubt that he had any injuries here."

Maybe Garza is damaged goods, but the more pressing concern for the Rays should be the fact that Garza kind of seems like a mental midget. He seems sort of...scatterbrained.

The New Guys: One Week In

2008-04-08T02:46:00.003-05:00

The Associated Press runs the same baseball preview every year, which includes a breakout box with the following information.
He's here: Whoever they added in the offseason.
He's outta here: Whoever the team in question got rid of.
I remember one year (2001) the Twins preview said this after he's here: Tom Prince.
That was it. Tom Prince. The Twins offseason consisted of signing Tom Prince, a backup catcher who was great behind the dish but couldn't hit his weight. And the Twins improved by 16 wins that year.

Anyway, I learned to get used to that every year.
But this season, the Twins offseason consisted of alot.
The 'He's here' consisted of Carlos Gomez, Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, Livan Hernandez and Jason Pridie (not to mention Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Zach Day, Randy Ruiz, John Knott and other minor leaguers).
It's been a week and the Twins are 3-5. Here's a quick look at what the Twins new acquisitions have given them.

Gomez
I didn't think he'd be ready, and let's remember, he's still really raw with lots of holes in his swing. But I'll be the first to admit that I underestimated his potential. I made a big deal about the Twins inability to land Fernando Martinez in the Johan Santana deal, and while I still think Martinez has amazing potential, I can certainly see why the Twins liked Gomez. He's a fun guy to watch. As of right now he's a terror on the basepaths, 5 for 5 stealing bases, with a .333 average and .353 OBP. But the 10 Ks and only 1 walk suggest it won't last.
Still, I love this kid. My guess is he finishes the year with an OBP in the .320s or so, but he's still awful young. He'll get better.

Everett
The best shortstop in the game was how he was touted, with some calling him better than Ozzie Smith. And while he's made some nice plays early, he's also made some bad throws, keeping Justin Morneau busy. Hopefully he'll straighten that out. The bat appears to be as advertised: Weak.

Lamb
He had a nice game at the plate Monday, which will hopefully shake him out of a slight slump. I haven't seen him field enough balls to make a judgment about his fielding, and while he hasn't hit much yet, I like his approach and swing.

Harris
He's made some highlight reel plays at 2B, but they look like the kind of plays that Nick Punto would get to flat-footed, so the questions about his defense seem warranted. But early on it looks like his strong season at the plate last year was no fluke. He can hit. He'll handle the 2-hole OK while Michael Cuddyer is hurt, but hopefully he'll be moved back to the bottom of the order when Cuddyer comes back. He sure makes a good 8-hole guy.

Young
The question about how good Young will be revolves around his power and plate discipline, and so far he's shown none of either. He's hitting .290, which is fine, expect for the fact that his OBP is also .290 since he has no walks, and his slugging percentage is .323 since he has only a double among his 9 hits. I'm hoping that Young's power will develop as he gets older and matures as a hitter, but I've been hoping for the same thing from Joe Mauer for a few years, and so far haven't seen it.

Hernandez
Hard to argue with the results so far. I'm not getting worked up, because I had high hopes that Ramon Ortiz could be decent last year, and after a terrific start, he was soon getting bombed. Livan may thrown about as hard as me, but he mixes it up well and so far has been throwing strikes. If nothing else, I do believe he'll have a positive influence on the rest of the young rotation, whether or not he continues to pitch well.

Monroe
Looks bad so far (one hit, five Ks in 11 ABs). Playing him over Jason Kubel is stupid times 10, but Gardy seems to have figured that out already, to the degree that now that Cuddyer is on the DL, light-hitting Denard Span is getting starts in RF instead of Monroe. Monroe can still contribute something, but only if he's limited to playing against lefties only (though he still wouldn't be worth $3.8 million at that point). I guess, at the very least, it's nice to have a guy on the bench who at least has the potential to hit the ball over the fence.

Matt Tolbert
A surprise addition to the roster after a good spring, Tolbert is hitting .500 (7-for-14). I wouldn't expect that to keep up, but he shows promise as a utility guy. Punto has barely seen the field so far, and for that alone, we should heartily celebrate the presence of Matt Tolbert.

I'm not impressed

2008-04-04T02:12:00.002-05:00

The Royals swept the Tigers.
The Royals, who lose 100 games every year, swept the Tigers, who are supposed to be the best team like, ever.
Gil Meche, Brian 'son of Floyd' Bannister and Zack Greinke are three pretty solid starters, and they shoved it up the Tigers' butts.

But before we all jump on the Royals bandwagon, let's rewind five years.

It was 2003, and the Royals had a rookie manager, like they do now. The Twins and White Sox were the heavy favorites in the AL Central, much like the Indians and Tigers are now.
The Royals opened the season by sweeping the White Sox, and soon ran their record to 9-0. Everyone was excited. The new manager was a new celebrity.
After sweeping a two-game series from the Twins, the Royals record was at 16-3.
16-3!
But it was all downhill from there. They ended up 83-79, a fluke season in the middle of a series of 100-loss seasons.

The Royals are better than they were last year. But I'm not buying in based on three games.

The other way around

2008-04-02T23:31:00.003-05:00

As in, it was supposed to be.
Every year the Twins manage to buck the assumed role they'll have.
We think they'll be able to hit, and they can't. We think their pitching will be shitty. And it isn't.

The first three games don't prove a thing, but the way things have played out are, well, ironic, to say the least.

Three games, three quality starts from the starting rotation.
Three games, four runs from the new and improved lineup.

If you're working yourself into a lather over the lineup's struggles, look at it this way.
Do you think the pitching is going to keep this up? No, you don't. So there's no more reason to assume the hitting will remain this bad.

Or, to look at it another way, the Twins, through three games, are hitting .237/.283/.280. Terrible? Absolutely.
But the Tigers, the consensus pick to have the best lineup in all of baseball, are at .191/.267/.338 through two games against the Royals.

It is a long, long, long season.

Having said that, there are concerns.
*Justin Morneau looks awful, and it really has nothing to do with the fact that he's 0-for-11 or whatever. It has to do with the fact that he hasn't even hit the ball out of the infield yet, and the fact that he was worse than every Twins hitter not named Nick Punto in spring training, and the fact that he was pretty awful during August and September of last year. This isn't a three-game slump, this is a four-month (not counting off-season) slump.
It's too early, and therefore unfair I think, to start wondering if his new contract plays a role in this, but there's really no excuse for what he's doing.

The guy who won the 2006 MVP and got off to a similar start in '07 was a guy who hit the ball to all fields, was not pull-conscious, could hit lefties and righties, could take what the pitcher gave him, could go with the pitch. He was a complete hitter.
So suggesting that pitchers have simply made the adjustments doesn't explain it for me.
I think he's just gotta sack up and start hitting. I don't think there's any more to it than that.

*You might be shocked to know that I have no problem with the fact that Punto got the start at 3B over Mike Lamb. The reason being I don't think Gardy did it because Punto's a switch-hitter, Lamb is a lefty and the pitcher was a lefty. I think it was more a case of wanting to get Punto in and give Lamb an early rest.
I've always believed that a good manager will make sure every player on the roster gets into the first series of the year, perhaps gets a start if possible. Lamb is going to have to be eased into an everyday role.
Lamb hit .362 against lefties last year (only 57 ABs), and for his career is at .268. That's much better than Punto hits against anyone. So I'm pretty sure it won't be a regular occurrence.

*Terrific start for Nick Blackburn. Too bad they couldn't get him a run. Puts a little pressure on Kevin Slowey as he takes the mound tonight, because when Francisco Liriano comes off the DL, somebody's probably going to get bumped. Brian Bass will probably be the guy who gets sent down when that day comes, the question is which of those three goes to the bullpen.

*Joe Mauer hits into a game-ending double play. OK, whatever, no big surprise. Kirby Puckett led the league in GIDP's almost every year.
But here's what I can't help but think about 57 times a day. Joe is 6-5, 230. Why does he hit like Brett Butler (the former Dodgers/Indians/Giants leadoff guy, not the ugly comedienne)?
Please, Joe, please start driving the ball. Maybe even hit one over the fence.

Boof Lite

2008-04-02T00:37:00.005-05:00

Much has been made of the fact that Boof Bonser lost anywhere from 20-30 pounds this off-season, depending on which reports you believe.

There was a wide assumption - because most Twins fans take everything the team tells them as gospel without bothering to question it - that a slimmer Boof would mean a better Boof, but of course, if it were that easy, Jared would be getting paid to pitch baseballs and not sub sandwiches.

While it looked to me like Boof has already started to put a couple of those pounds back on (I could be wrong, I just thought he looked thinner the couple times I saw him in spring training games), there was some evidence from his start Tuesday that he has benefitted from his new diet.

He got knocked around pretty good in the first inning to the tune of two runs, then gave up a deep double to lead off the second, but settled down pretty nicely from then on.

This is basically the opposite of what we saw from Boof last year. He would often mow through the lineup once, racking up strikeouts through 3, 4 or 5 good innings, but then he'd hit a wall and start getting whacked (and sometimes start walking people, too).

One theory to explain that phenomenon would be that Boof just doesn't have enough pitches to get good hitters out 3 or 4 times in a game, and that he'd be better suited for the bullpen.

That's usually how most relievers become relievers.

The other theory, the one the Twins decided to go with, is that his fatness limited his stamina and wore him out quick.

I think the jury is still out as to which theory is true. Considering Boof has been working hard to make his changeup a real option and not just a token pitch, the Twins are obviously at least somewhat willing to consider the former theory as well as the latter.

So back to Tuesday night. After the rough first inning he gave up the leadoff double in the 2nd, but got out of the inning without even letting that runner reach third. He then put up two more zeroes, before getting into a little trouble in the 5th, thanks in part to some shaky defense.

I thought he'd be pulled after five, but Ron Gardenhire took a chance and sent him back out for the 6th. That would have been a recipe for disaster last year, but Boof responded with a clean inning, which should be a big confidence boost to him.

Does that mean he has more stamina? That the weight-loss will pay off as the Twins have claimed? It's certainly possible.

He gave up 8 hits and 4 runs in 6 innings, but only 3 of the 4 runs were earned, and most impressively, he didn't walk a batter on the night, while striking out four.

The results don't show it clearly, especially since the bullpen and defense were of no help on this night (more on that another day), but Boof's first start of the year was a positive.

OK, I kinda like this guy

2008-03-31T23:18:00.002-05:00

I'm far from convinced that this is how it's going to be regularly, but man, Carlos Gomez can do some things. He was by far the most exciting player on the field Monday night as the Twins opened the season with a 3-2 win over the Angels.
I'm still doubtful about his ability to get on base, but if he can steal bases like that, and throw in some XBH, he might work out in the leadoff spot after all.

Then again, it's one game. He could go 0-4 with 3 Ks tonight.

*Livan. WTF. You are not that good. I simply refuse to believe it. But that was a pretty good start.
*Brendan Harris had two hits, which probably just made Gardy mad. Can't start Punto yet.
*Craig Monroe starting at DH, against a righty. Why? Why, why, why, why, why, why? You are an idiot, Ron Gardenhire.
*Pat Neshek made Vlad Guerrero his bitch. And even though Neshek doesn't like me, I enjoyed it.
*Think Joe Nathan has seen Torii Hunter hit before? Nothing but cutters and sliders low and away.
*Hey Justin Morneau - any day now, dude.

AL Central Preview: Minnesota Twins

2008-03-30T22:24:00.007-05:00

This year marks the first time since 2002 that I haven't gone with the Twins as my pick to win the AL Central, and there are a myriad of reasons for that.
The rotation could be bad. The lineup should be better, but that doesn't mean it will be. And if it's not, that would really hurt because they've already sacrificed some defense in trying to improve the offense.
And the formidable teams that Cleveland and Detroit have put together are the biggest factors of all. While the unbalanced schedule played a huge role in the Twins winning three straight AL Central crowns from 2002-2004 (the '03 team in particular was fairly weak) it will make things that much harder on them now, as they'll play the bulk of their games against Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Kansas City (Makes you realize just how much more impressive their '06 division title was than any of the other three).

In the past you could say something like, "Well, if everything goes right, and this happens and this happens and that happens, then they have a shot."
That's basically what happened in '06.
But this year, I think even if almost everything went right for the Twins, they'd still finish in third place. 85-88 wins seems like an absolute best case scenario.
And on the flip side, while I certainly don't expect this team to be bad, it could be. If enough things went wrong, 90 losses or more could be possible.

The Lineup
CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The Bench
C Mike Redmond
OF Monroe/Kubel
IF Nick Punto
IF Matt Tolbert

The biggest problem I have with this lineup is Gomez. I certainly liked what I saw from him in spring training from a tools/potential standpoint, but I'd be surprised if he posted better than a .300 OBP, and that's horrible from anywhere in the lineup, let alone the leadoff spot. I would not be surprised if Gomez made at least one trip back to Triple-A this year.
And in the 9-hole, Adam Everett will be doing well if he can hit .250 with a .300 OBP. He might be able to hit 6 or 7 homers - he once hit 11.
In between, however, I really like this lineup. I never liked Joe Mauer in the 3-hole, so it's great to see him batting second. He's ideal for that spot, especially since he's more of a groundball/line drive-hitter. Mauer was hurt for much of last year, and if he can stay healthy, he would be a great table-setter for what should be a solid middle.
And Mauer isn't the only one looking to bounce back, and/or take a step up. Morneau and Cuddyer both slumped last year, while Kubel and Young appear to be on the cusp of realizing their potential. I don't think Kubel is ever going to be the five-star player he was occasionally hyped as, but he very well could be a Shane Mack-type of contributor. Young could put up Kirby Puckett numbers eventually, but my guess is that's at least another year away.
I'm trying to keep an open mind about Monroe, but if he plays with any regularity against RHP, Ron Gardenhire should be shot.
Lamb and Harris aren't major difference makers, but they represent exactly the kind of offensive upgrades the Twins should've been making the last few years. You don't need to go out and land a superstar all the time. If they can both provide .275/.340/.430 numbers or thereabouts, it would make a big difference in a lineup that last year routinely featured Luis Castillo, Jason Tyner and Nick Punto at the same time.

The Ro'
RH Livan Hernandez
RH Boof Bonser
RH Scott Baker
RH Kevin Slowey
RH Nick Blackburn/LH Francisco Liriano

The 'pen
RH Matt Guerrier
RH Juan Rincon
RH Jesse Crain
RH Brian Bass
RH Pat Neshek
LH Dennys Reyes
RH Joe Nathan

The rotation is the Twins' weakness, without question. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be bad, but it would be something close to a miracle if it was better than league average.
I think the best way to break it down is one by one.
-Hernandez
He's durable, and Gardy and Rick Anderson have always valued veterans. I get a sense that the reason for that is more for what those veterans will do for the young guys from a mentorship role than what they'll do for the team's win/loss record.
Hernandez's ERA is likely to be north of 5. The question is whether or not he'll keep his spot in the rotation all year long.
-Bonser
Kind of a forgotten man, people seem to forget that he had an excellent rookie year, and pitched quite well in the first half of last season before breaking down. He lost 30 pounds, and while I'm not going to automatically assume that means he'll be better, I do think it's possible that Boof could provide 210 innings with an ERA in the low 4s or better.
-Baker
He really turned a corner last year, and has the stuff to make you think it's for real. His durability might be a question, but if healthy, he could work 200 innings with an ERA in the mid to high 3s.
-Slowey, Blackburn, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, etc.
This is where the seperation occurs. It's not a sure thing that even Boof or Baker will pitch well this year, and it's just flat out unlikely that Slowey, Blackburn and another host of rookies waiting in the minors are ready to turn the corner this year the way Baker has and Boof almost has.
Slowey has the best chance of that group to make a difference, but even he is probably due for another 100 innings of getting his brains beat in before he figures it out (for the record, I do think he will figure it out eventually).
-Liriano
You could call him the wild card of the group, but I think we can be fairly certain that he's not going to be anything close to his 2006 self this year. 130-160 innings would be a big positive, no matter what his ERA is.

The bullpen will be the strength of the team once again, and it'll likely be better than it was last year. Crain's return will be a big boost to the depth, ensuring that Neshek doesn't have to be so badly overused. Reyes wasn't healthy for most of last year, and guys like Carmen Cali were awful in his place. Rincon isn't what he once was, but he likely won't be asked to pitch in as many big spots as he used to.
Guerrier and Neshek are among the best in the business. So is that Nathan guy.

Last year the Twins had a decent rotation and a bad offense. This year those things should be flip-flopped, so for the most part I think they cancel each other out and the record ends up pretty close to what it was last year. With a healthier Mauer, a healthier bullpen, and slight improvement over last year from Morneau, Cuddyer, Young and Kubel, the Twins have just enough to nudge themselves over .500.
Minnesota Twins
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
Lineup: B
Rotation: C-
Bullpen: A
Bench: B-
Defense: B
2008 Prediction: 82-80, 3rd in AL Central

And the rest of the league....
AL West
1. Anaheim
2. Seattle
3. Oakland
4. Texas

AL Central
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland (WC)
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
5. Kansas City

AL East
1. Boston
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

NL West
1. Arizona
2. Colorado (WC)
3. Los Angeles
4. San Diego
5. San Francisco

NL Central
1. Chicago
2. Milwaukee
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. St. Louis
6. Houston

NL East
1. New York
2. Atlanta
3. Philadelphia
4. Washington
5. Florida

AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez
NL MVP: David Wright
AL CY: Jered Weaver
NL CY: Johan Santana
AL ROY: Daric Barton
NL ROY: Kosuke Fukudome

AL Central Preview: Detroit Tigers

2008-03-28T00:05:00.004-05:00

God dammit.

Son of a bitch.

Aw, shit.

You gotta be kiddin' me.

Fuck.

Suck my ass, Dombrowski.

Those were just some of the things that went through the minds of Twins, White Sox and Indians fans, not to mention Red Sox, Yankees, Angels and Mariners fans, too, when the Detroit Tigers swapped their farm system for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, formerly of the Florida Marlins.

The Tigers already had a pretty good team, one that went to the World Series in 2006 and appeared headed there again in '07 before faltering in the second half. But rather than sit still and hope things could right themselves on their own, they did what fans love and GMs are generally afraid to do. They literally bet the farm to make a run at a World Series.

And in fairness, it's not like they bet the farm to make one run. While the Tigers do have some veterans getting up there in years, they also have some young studs, and with an owner willing to spend, there's no reason to think they won't be able to fill holes in free agency over the next few years to keep this team in contention for the foreseeable future.

The lineup is loaded. The rotation isn't as good as Cleveland's, but it's still pretty good. The bullpen is hurting right now due to injuries, but it's a long season. Assuming they eventually get healthy, that unit will be a strength.

The Tigers did clean out their farm system to get Cabrera and Willis, but you know what? Good for them. Seriously, even as a Twins fan, I'm happy to see it. It's about time someone went ahead and tried to win now. At some point you have to cash in your chips and go for it. Good for the Tigers for having the balls to do it. As a fan, I can't imagine being disappointed, no matter how good the prospects are that went to Florida (and they were pretty good).

Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
3B Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
1B Carlos Guillen
C Ivan Rodriguez
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Jacque Jones

Bench
IF/C Brandon Inge
OF Marcus Thames
OF Ryan Rayburn
IF Ramon Santiago
OF Timo Perez
OF Brent Clevlen

I'm not exactly sure that's the order Jimmy Leyland will go with, but what does it matter? You could pull those 9 names out of a hat and come up with a damn good lineup.
Granderson will open the season on the DL, but when healthy, he's a guy who slugs .500 out of the leadoff spot. Polanco is the most underrated player in baseball (he hit .341 last year!).
Then you've got Magglio (.363, won the batting title), Cabrera (otherwise known as the A-Rod of the NL) , Sheffield and Guillen (.296, 21, 102) in the middle, with I-Rod, Renteria (.332) and Jacque rounding out the bottom.
Seriously, their 7-8-9 could be 1-2-3 for many teams.

Rotation
RH Justin Verlander
LH Dontrelle Willis
RH Jeremy Bonderman
LH Nate Robertson
LH Kenny Rogers

Again, I don't know if this is the order they'll go in. But if Rogers is healthy and Willis finds his form (both fairly big ifs) this is a terrific rotation. Verlander is a legit ace, but he is the only sure thing.
I've given up on Bonderman ever being a true ace. He's too much of a mental midget. But he's pretty good for a 3rd or 4th starter. Robertson woke up last year after a terrific '06, but again, you could do a lot worse in the back end of the rotation.
I think a lot of how well Detroit does this year will come down to how well Rogers and Willis throw.
Willis won 22 games in '05 as a 24-year old. The last two years have been a struggle, but you get the feeling he'll find his game now that he's on a team as loaded as these guys are. I wouldn't blame Tiger fans for being nervous about a guy who had a 5.17 ERA in the NL last year, but I'm predicting a solid year from the D-Train.
Rogers I'm less sure of, as his fastball barely cracks 80 these days. But he knows how to pitch. If he's healthy I don't think 180 innings of 4.30 ball are out of the question, and with this lineup, that'd be just fine.

Bullpen
RH Joel Zumaya
RH Fernando Rodney
RH Todd Jones
LH Bobby Seay
RH Zach Miner
RH Jason Grilli
LH Tim Byrdak

Zumaya and Rodney are both expected to open the year on the DL, and if they're out for a prolonged stretch, that will make it tough for the Tigers to hold off Cleveland. Seay and Byrdak both pitched very well last year, as did Miner. As a Twins fan, I'm usually happy to see Grilli brought into a game.
Jones, as I wrote yesterday, is a decent closer. He doesn't have very good stuff, and you probably want to give him at least at 2-run lead to work with, but he usually finds a way to get it done. He won't be as good, however, without Zumaya and Rodney in front of him.

This is one of the best lineups I've ever seen. And while the rotation and bullpen both have questions, my prediction is that the Tigers are going to come out ahead in both of those areas. If I'm wrong and they don't, the Indians probably take the Central.

Detroit Tigers
Manager: Jim Leyland
Lineup: A+
Rotation: B+
Bullpen: B
Bench: A-
Defense: A-
2008 Prediction: 98-64, 1st in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Cleveland Indians

2008-03-27T01:31:00.003-05:00

The Indians should've been in the World Series last year, but they choked, something teams are prone to do when they play the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.
They're bringing back pretty much the exact same roster from a year ago, and even though the Tigers loaded up this off-season, the Indians seem to still be the pick in the AL Central.

I think they're gonna be pretty good, a playoff team in fact. But I don't think they're better than the Tigers.

Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Casey Blake
LF David Delluci/Jason Michaels
RF Franklin Gutierrez

Bench
C Kelly Shoppach
OF Delluci/Michaels
IF Josh Barfield
IF Jamey Carroll
IF Andy Marte
OF Shin-Soo Choo

The Indians won 96 games last year, even while Hafner slumped all season, and Sizemore failed to live up to the ridiculous Willie Mays comparisons.
I would fully expect Hafner, who's still only 30, to bounce back with a big year, and while I'm not of the opinon that Sizemore is ever going to be as good as Peter Gammons and Tom Verducci think he is, the guy is the best leadoff hitter in the game.
What I like about the Indians is their collection of second-tier talent.
Last year, many people (myself included) picked the Twins to win because they had such a strong collection of superstars (Hunter, Mauer, Nathan, Santana, Morneau). But one thing we should be learning is that having depth and balance is better than having several stars and several scrubs.

Guys like Ryan Garko, Casey Blake, Jhonny Peralta and Franklin Gutierrez are not stars, and they never will be. But Hafner, Martinez and Sizemore are. You put a core of superstars with an even bigger core of good-not-great players, and you've got a winner.

The only knock on this lineup is the defense. Sizemore is terrific in center, but the rest of them range from bad to average. If I were them I'd switch Cabrera and Peralta.

Rotation
LH CC Sabathia
RH Fausto Carmona
RH Jake Westbrook
RH Paul Byrd
RH Cliff Lee

This is the best rotation in the division. Sabathia appears to have finally harnessed his game, and that paid off in a Cy Young award. Carmona could just as easily have won it. They both won 19 games last year.
Westbrook and Byrd are average middle of the rotation guys, but when you have a pair of aces at the top, that's all you need. Still, I have my doubts about whether Carmona can repeat his performance from last year. The league might start to figure him out to some degree.
Lee had a terrible year last year, but there's not a major need for him to bounce back, because Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers are both ready to step in when needed.

Bullpen
RH Rafael Betancourt
LH Rafael Perez
LH Aaron Fultz
RH Tom Mastny
RH Jensen Lewis
RH Masahide Kobayashi
RH Joe Borowski

Borowski is, like Detroit's Todd Jones, not a very good pitcher. But they work as closers because they have good setup men in front of them, and because their veteran savvy when the game is on the line makes up for mediocre stuff.
Betancourt is maybe the best setup man in baseball, and the rest of the 'pen, a big weakness in '06, has also shaped up into a pretty good unit.

The Indians are going to be good again. The good news for Twins fans is that it is starting to look like this will be Sabathia's last year in Cleveland. With the injuries to Boston's pitching staff I think it's possible that the two best teams in the AL are both in the Central, and I expect them both to make the playoffs. Flip a coin. I like Detroit. But more on them tomorrow.

Cleveland Indians
Manager: Eric Wedge
Lineup: B+
Rotation: A
Bullpen: A-
Bench: B
Defense: C
2008 Prediction: 95-67, 2nd in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Chicago White Sox

2008-03-25T23:39:00.004-05:00

Last year, Baseball Prospectus, a stat-nerd organization (and I mean that in a good way) predicted the White Sox, who were two years removed from winning the World Series and had won 90 games the previous year, would go 72-90.
Bad sportswriters who hate advanced statistics seized on that projection as evidence of how stupid and phony all the number crunching "Moneyballistas" really are, but then something happened.

The Sox went 72-90. Right on the button.

I wrote before the season that they were "on their way down", but still predicted they'd win 86 games. But, thanks to a horrendous offense, and age catching up to several veterans, they sucked.
This year, Baseball Prospectus has them going 77-85.

I'd say that seems about right. The Sox would be better off rebuilding, maybe not a total overhaul but at least to the degree the Twins are. Instead, GM Ken Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen are being bullheaded, and think they can compete with the Tigers and Indians.
They can't. In fact, I think they'll struggle to win more games than the Twins and Royals (it's a 3-team race for third...or last, depending on your point of view).

Lineup
SS Orlando Cabrera
CF Nick Swisher
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
C AJ Pierzynski
3B Joe Crede
LF Carlos Quentin/Brian Anderson
2B Juan Uribe

Bench
IF Alexei Ramirez
IF Pablo Ozuna
IF Danny Richar
OF Jerry Owens
C Toby Hall

Cabrera is a terrific pickup at SS. He's a Gold Glover and a .300 hitter with pop. Swisher had a bit of a down year last year, but is still a terrific on-base guy with good power. Putting him in CF could be an adventure, though.
Dye and Konerko slumped a little last year, which is what everyone blames the Sox's struggles on, but they weren't actually all that bad, and neither was Thome. So I don't really understand all these claims that those three are going to bounce back.
Dye hit .254 with 28 homers, after hitting .315 with 44 homers in '06.
I'm sorry, but I'm thinking .254-28 is more typical for Dye than .315-44.
Crede is something of a wild card coming back from an injury, but Josh Fields, who hit 23 homers in 100 games last year, is waiting in the minors (who sends a guy who hit 23 homers to the minors?)
AJ is still a great competitor, but he's average defensively and average at the plate.
The bottom of their order could be pretty bad.

Rotation
LH Mark Buehrle
RH Javier Vazquez
RH Jose Contreras
LH John Danks
RH Gavin Floyd

I thought the Sox could and should trade Buehrle when they had the chance, but he's still only 29, and will give them a legit ace for another few years, whether they're competing or rebuilding.
Vazquez is a solid 2, but after that it gets real dicey. Floyd and Danks are highly regarded youngsters, but both got roughed up last year. I'm thinking Contreras might be washed up.

Bullpen
RH Scott Linebrink
RH Octavio Dotel
RH Mike MacDougal
RH Ehren Wasserman
RH Nick Masset
LH Boone Logan
LH Matt Thornton
RH Bobby Jenks

Aside from Jenks, who's emerged as an elite closer (he retired a record 41 batters in a row at one point last year), this unit was awful last year. Linebrink, who comes in from the NL, brings some stability, and Dotel is an upgrade as well. Wasserman came up mid-season and pitched well.
The others are big question marks.

The White Sox still have a dangerous middle of the order, and Cabrera is a great table-setter to put in front of them. If Floyd and Danks step up, the rotation would be pretty good, and if the bullpen help makes a difference, suddenly the Sox would have the look of a contender.

But my guess is the back end of the rotation will struggle, which would in turn make the lack of depth in the bullpen more of an issue.
And while I like Cabrera and Swisher, I wonder how much the veteran hitters have left.
Also, Ozzie Guillen is somewhat of a crazy person. That's an X-factor.

Chicago White Sox
Manager: Ozzie Guillen
Lineup: C+
Rotation: C
Bullpen: C-
Bench: C+
Defense: C+
2008 Prediction: 75-87, 4th in AL Central

AL Central Preview: Kansas City Royals

2008-03-25T01:00:00.005-05:00

The Royals ended a three-year run of 100-loss seasons last year, going 69-93, just one game back of the White Sox for 4th place in the Central.
That's just one reason things are looking up for a team that, aside from the fluke 83-win team of 2003, hasn't contended since the George Brett-Mark Gubicza-Brett Saberhagen days.
New GM Dayton Moore is highly regarded around the league, and count me as one of many who are intrigued by their hiring of Trey Hillman of the Japanese League as their manager.
The signing of Gil Meche to a 5-year, $55 million deal before last season seemed ridiculous at the time, but Meche worked 216 innings and posted a 3.67 ERA, and the market has skyrocketed to where $11 million is practically a bargain for a guy with a sub-4 ERA who can work 200 innings.

In addition, the Royals have finally started to develop a core of solid young players, with Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Mark Teahan the most prominent among them.
The Royals made a push for Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones this off-season, and while they were turned away, it shows that, at the very least, they are starting to take themselves seriously, even if high-priced free agents aren't (they did sign OF Jose Guillen to a 3-year, $36 million deal).

All that said, I'm still not convinced this is a team ready to move out of the cellar.

Yet.

At many positions, they've merely gone from bad to mediocre (SS, 1B, CF, C), and the pitching still has some questions.

Lineup
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
RF Mark Teahen
LF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena

Bench
C Miguel Olivo
IF Esteban German
IF Alberto Callaspo
OF Joey Gathright
IF Ryan Shealy

DeJesus seems to have plateaued as a league-average CF (at best), while Grudzielanek has to age eventually. Teahen hit only 7 homers in 544 ABs last year after hitting 18 the previous year.
Guillen will open the season serving a 15-game steroid suspension, but offers 25-homer power and a great outfield arm when he returns.
Butler and Gordon are big-time prospects. Gordon was overmatched early last year, but the Royals resisted the urge to send him down, and he eventually played his way into a groove, finishing the year at .247 with 15 homers, 14 steals and 36 doubles. He's only 24, and will only get better. Probably a lot better.
Butler has no position, but the not-yet 22-year old slugger batted .292 with 8 homers and 52 RBIs in half a season with the Royals last year. He's a potential .320-30-120 guy.
Buck is an average catcher, and while Pena held his own last year at SS, his days in that spot are numbered with No. 1 pick Mike Moustakas waiting in the wings.

Rotation
RH Gil Meche
RH Brian Bannister
RH Zack Greinke
LH Jorge De La Rosa
RH Kyle Davies/RH Leo Nunez/RH Luke Hochevar

Meche was a legitimate ace last year, while Bannister (12-9, 3.87) emerged as a strong No. 2. I'd be surprised if either of them were able to duplicate their numbers this year, however. Greinke (7-7, 3.69) has a bigger upside than both of them.
De La Rosa (8-12, 5.82) got lit up last year, while the 5th starter spot is a hole. Hochevar, the team's top pitching prospect, will be there before long (he'll open the season in the minors).

Bullpen
LH Ron Mahay
LH Jimmy Gobble
RH Yasuhiko Yabuta
RH Joel Peralta
RH Joakim Soria
LH Neal Musser
RH John Bale

Soria (2.48, 17 saves) was a big surprise last year, while Yabuta brings a solid track record from Japan. Mahay and Gobble were both excellent last year, and Peralta was good, too. Musser and Bale were decent. This is actually a pretty good 'pen.

The Royals have done a good job of digging themselves out of a hole by assembling quality young talent through the amateur and Rule V drafts while adding modestly priced but effective veterans and role players (the latter being something I wish the Twins did better). They're a lot better than they were.
But other than Gordon and Butler, most of them don't project to be truly high level players.
This team is heading in the right direction, but there's still work to do.

Kansas City Royals
Manager: Trey Hillman
Lineup: C-
Rotation: C
Bullpen: B
Bench: C
Defense: B 2008 Prediction: 70-92, 5th in AL Central

Nathan deal close: Punto on his way out?

2008-03-24T01:29:00.002-05:00

*Opening day is on the clock, as the Twins host Torii Hunter and the Angels a week from today. That means I plan to actually keep this place updated this week with a look at each team in the AL Central, and my predictions.

That will begin Tuesday.
Today, a couple jottings as spring training winds down.

*The Twins are apparently closing in on a four-year extension for Joe Nathan.
On the surface, it's hard not to be excited about that. The Twins have already lost Hunter and Johan Santana, and the signing of Nathan, on the heels of extensions for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer is another sign that just because the Twins didn't pay Hunter and Santana doesn't mean they're averse to paying marquee players.

Nathan is one of the top three closers in the game, with Jonathan Papelbon and JJ Putz being the other two in my opinion.
Since taking over as the Twins closer, Nathan has saved 160 games in 174 chances, a startling 92 percent success rate.
In 282.1 innings as a Twin, he's struck out 355 batters and allowed just 186 hits, with a 1.94 ERA.
He's 33, and with an athletic, 6-4 frame, likely has another half-dozen good years left.
So there's certainly nothing wrong with having a guy like that around for a few more years.

But I still question whether or not it's the best thing for the Twins to do. Reportedly he'll be paid $11 million a year (a bargain for a player of his caliber - he could've got a lot more elsewhere). He's easily worth that, unless you're talking about a team with a limited payroll and plenty of other options to fill the closer's roll. The Twins, of course, fit both of those qualifications. Pat Neshek, Boof Bonser and, depending on his health, Francisco Liriano, would all likely be very good closers, while Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon and Matt Guerrier could all probably do a decent job, too.

$11 million dollars can be 12 to 15 percent of the Twins payroll. Is it a good idea to use 12 percent of the payroll on a guy who plays in 75 innings a year?
Especially when there's a chance that the Twins won't be able to compete for the AL Central title for the next two years?
But hey, if the best closer in baseball is staying for another four years, I'm not going to complain.

*Just when the Twins seemed to be reconsidering the idea of Liriano beginning the season either in Triple-A or extended spring training in Ft. Myers, the guy went and threw 4 hitless innings against Baltimore on Sunday, fanning five and hitting 94-mph on the gun. That probably increases his chances of making the rotation. Scott Baker could still come back in time from his sore back to make the team as well.
Phil Humber threw two more scoreless innings to lower his spring ERA to 1.29, but if Baker and Liriano both make the rotation, Humber probably goes back to Triple-A.
Glen Perkins was cut (he had a 7.50 ERA), meaning Brian Bass probably gets the last spot in the 'pen. Bass is a 26-year old righthanded swingman who the Twins seem to think deserves his chance. By keeping him, though, Dennys Reyes is the only lefty in the pen. I'm OK with that. I prefer keeping the best 11 or 12 guys, regardless of what arm they throw with.

*Garrett Jones cleared waivers and will go to Triple-A, and infielder Matt Tolbert appears to have taken the lead in the race for the last bench spot. Brian Buscher has been in a huge slump, and though the Twins obviously wanted him to win the job, they appear ready to go with Tolbert, who can play SS, something Buscher can't do.
If they do keep Tolbert, does that mean they'd consider releasing Nick Punto? It's hard to think so (he's guaranteed $2.4 million this year), but even Ron Gardenhire has been noticeably quiet in regards to Little Nicky lately. Punto went 0-4 Sunday, lowering his spring hitting line to .139/.194/.205.
That is awful. Totally awful, even for Punto, and I think even Gardy is running out of patience. He keeps hitting weak pop ups and 260-foot outfield flies, and doesn't seem to have a lot of confidence either (understandably).
If nothing else, he seems destined for the Luis Rodriguez role, as in the backup utility guy who never plays, and is released at the end of the year.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

2008-03-19T22:19:00.002-05:00

We're less than two weeks away, and here's how things are shaping up in Ft. Myers.

The Good:
Craig Monroe still isn't worth $3.8 million, but if his .333/.367/.630 hitting line is any indication, he may have something left in the tank.
Delmon Young has not thrown any equipment at any umpires, and he's hit .361/.395/.500
Joe Mauer looks ready to make a run at the MVP award (.458/.548/.833).
Mike Lamb has actually had decent reviews for his defensive work so far, while posting a .381/.435/.524 line at the plate. I have a hunch he might put up better numbers at 3rd than Nick Punto did last year.
Randy Ruiz has pretty much no shot at making the team, but he's been the best hitter on the team through spring, hitting .407/.448/.704. Players like him and Jon Knott (.250/.250/.542) are actually great to have. They provide depth, and it's nice to have people available that are actually capable of contributing when someone goes down.
Meanwhile, Denard Span, the minor leaguer everyone seems to hate, has had a good spring, and might open the season as the starting CF. Thanks to improved patience at the plate, he's hitting .290/.421/.419. I still think he'll be somewhat over matched by big league pitching, but if he can draw a walk here and there and use his speed, that would be a start.
Carlos Gomez is 8 for 8 stealing bases, and has two doubles, two triples and a homer. But his OBP is a mere .267.
I really don't have any idea who has the upper hand in the CF race.

There have been some positive developments on the mound, too.
Phil Humber has worked 12 innings, allowing just 8 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks with 7 Ks.
Brian Bass has allowed two runs in 10.1 innings with 8 Ks and 2 walks.
Dennys Reyes has worked 7 innings, allowing 7 hits and 1 walk and 7 Ks.
Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek have been unhittable as usual.
Boof has allowed only 3 runs in 9 innings, but has walked 5.

The Bad:
Punto has been Punto. He's hitting .172/.250/.241.
Unfortunately, Brendan Harris, his competition for the 2B job, is hitting .176/.222/.265, and has been unimpressive in the field. Justin Morneau has a .359 SLG%.
Brian Buscher opened camp by hitting line drives all over the place, but is probably headed back to Rochester, as his hitting line has plummeted to .148/.258/.259.
Matt Guerrier has a 6.43 ERA. Juan Rincon has walked 6 batters in 6 innings.
Kevin Slowey had 13 Ks in 10 innings, but has allowed 17 hits, and has a 5.94 ERA. Glen Perkins has a 5.43 ERA, and only 6 Ks in 11 innnings.

The Ugly:
Livan Hernandez has worked 13 innings and allowed 15 runs on 24 hits.
Brian Duensing was thought to be a darkhorse candidate for the rotation, but was one of the first cuts after posting a 19.29 ERA.
Randy Keisler, a veteran lefty, had an outside shot to make the team as a second lefty out of the pen, and while his 4.82 ERA isn't terrible, he has walked 8 in 9 innings.
Garrett Jones, who seems to have a leg up on the final roster spot, hit a monstrous homerun off Joba Chamberlain in a nationally televised game two weeks ago, but in his other 24 at-bats, he's managed 3 singles, a double and 9 Ks.

The Twins Rotation is Going to be Bad

2008-03-19T01:12:00.003-05:00

Last year the Twins were supposed to be unable to compete because of their pitching staff. The offense would be as strong as ever, but the pitching would stink. At least that's what many thought (including myself, to some degree).

But the pitchers put together a 4.15 team ERA, fourth-best in the AL, even with Johan Santana having an off year.
And the offense, aside from Torii Hunter - and for brief periods Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel - performed as though each hitter was coming to the plate with female anatomy.

And the Twins went 79-83.

Here's my early hunch on how things are going to go this year: The win total will be similar. If enough things go wrong, they could be a 70-win team. If they get some breaks, they could be an 85-win team. But contention is a near impossibility. But my guess is that how they get to 75-80 wins will be the opposite of how they did it last year.

The offense has a chance to be pretty good. I love Joe Mauer in the 2-hole (huh huh, see what I did there), and I think he, Morneau and Michael Cuddyer are all safe bets to rebound somewhat this year. I like Delmon Young. I like Jason Kubel. I like Mike Lamb and Brendan Harris, whom Gardy is still calling 'Brandon'.

But the pitching looks like it's going to be a struggle.
Francisco Liriano doesn't look too sharp. That's fine, by the way, because his health is way more important at this point than his effectiveness. As long as he's reporting no pain in his elbow, I won't care if his ERA is 6. For awhile anyway.

Livan Hernandez looks like he may be Sidney Ponson revisited. He's been awful so far this spring (though Carlos Silva did the same thing last spring and then had a pretty good season).

Scott Baker, the likely "ace", may have to start the season on the DL.
Boof Bonser looks like the best starter right now.

The good news with Liriano and Baker both being questionable for the rotation for awhile is that Phil Humber, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey should all get an extended look. Slowey should probably be in the rotation anyway, as he's not likely to get any benefit from more time in the minors. It's time for him to learn how to get big league hitters out.
But Humber and Blackburn are likely to spend this year alternating between the league and Rochester. Might as well see what they got right now, to at least see how far along they are.

These guys are all pretty talented, as are several other arms in the system, so I'm probably being overly negative and a little dramatic. It's not like they're trotting out Roy Smith or Jose Parra.

But there's a chance that the opening day rotation is going to look like this:

Livan
Boof
Slowey
Humber
Blackburn

That's not terribly encouraging.

Deadspin Twins preview

2008-03-13T02:15:00.001-05:00

This is the busiest time of year for me when it comes to the writing gig that actually pays my bills, so sorry that the updates have been sort of slow lately.
So for the second time this week, I'll direct you to a piece from Twins blog ace Aaron Gleeman.
Here's the preview he wrote for deadspin.

Mid-spring Notes

2008-03-10T01:50:00.003-05:00

We got our first two looks at the '08 Twins this week, and I'm sure, like me, you were reminded of what a tremendous letdown spring training games are.

You've been waiting all winter for baseball, you're so excited to watch a game, and then you remember how boring spring training games are.
It's not so much that the starters don't play all the time, it's just that the games don't mean anything, so it's hard to get too worked up.

Having said that, a few thoughts.

*Francisco Liriano made this first start in a year and a half, and looked kind of fat. His fastball started out around 88-89, but moved into the 91-92 range in his second inning. Apparently his changeup, which he used to fan Manny Ramirez, was outstanding. That's good news.
His slider is a long ways away. That's to be expected, and the bigger question is probably not when the slider comes back, but what kind of toll it will take on his elbow when it does.
The Twins are working with him to lessen the recoil on his delivery (so his butt isn't facing the plate when he finishes), and they say they want him to throw around 10 sliders a game, as opposed to 30 or so.
That's fine for this year, but eventually he'll have to be able to throw more than 10 a game. He won't be as effective as he was if he's only throwing his best pitch once or twice an inning.

I'll say it again. The Twins aren't likely to compete this year, so no reason to push him. Skip his turn in the ro' once a month, or limit him to 75 pitches a game. The goal should be to have him ready for a full workload next year.

*Boof Light's results Sunday weren't great, but I liked what I saw. He seemed much more able to finish his pitches, which seemed to give him a good downward plane on his pitches that should mean he's better able to keep the ball down.

*Ron Gardenhire seems committed to batting Joe Mauer 2nd, and that makes me very, very happy. Mauer is an on-base guy, not a run producer (yet).
Michael Cuddyer will bat third, and while he's not an ideal 3-hole hitter, he has the right mixture of skills - a good OBP and some decent pop. Plus, it sets up a L-R-L-R-L with Mauer, Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, Delmon Young and either Mike Lamb or Jason Kubel.

*On the other hand, Gardy seems unconcerned with the free-swinging ways of Carlos Gomez and Young, saying this week he wants them to be aggressive at the plate.
Aggressive is fine, but swinging at everything only works if you're Kirby Puckett, Vlad Guerrero or Ichiro Suzuki.
If Young develops into a Vlad-style ripper, than I could care less if he ever walks. But if he never becomes more than a .280-25 homer guy, he wouldn't be that valuable with a .315 OBP.
And if Gomez is going to bat leadoff, it'd be nice if he could get on base at least 35 percent of the time. (Then again, the Twins won two World Series' with Dan Gladden OBP'ing about .305 in the leadoff spot. Go figure.)
On a related note, much-maligned Denard Span walked four times Sunday. He's been running his mouth all spring about how everyone is underestimating him, and so far no one seems to buy it. But if he can truly develop his on-base skills, maybe he still has a shot to be a quality major leaguer.

*Doug Mientkiewicz has already played 3B and RF for the Pirates this spring. So apparently the Pirates liked my idea of turning him into a utility guy. Also looks like Luis Rivas is going to make that team.

*The Brewers say they're going to bat their pitchers 8th this year, and have catcher Jason Kendall bat 9th. Their stat-heads ran some formulas and believe it will create another 25-30 runs over the course of the year. They say it's like having two leadoff hitters hitting in a row, and with pitchers usually making an out, I guess that sort of makes sense. But what if the 7 and 8 hitters both single with two outs? Now you have the pitcher up instead of Jason Kendall.
I'll be interested to see how it works out. Tony LaRussa did the same thing with the Cardinals a few years ago and eventually went back to hitting his pitcher last.

*For some seriously in-depth analysis of the Twins top prospects, check out Aaron Gleeman's list here.
Gives you a good idea of where the Twins organizational depth lies.

Centerfield, other stuff

2008-03-05T23:56:00.003-06:00

The Twins say they have a competition for the centerfield job.
The candidates are Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie and Denard Span.
I've said since the Twins traded Johan Santana to the Mets that they should sign Kenny Lofton to hold down the job, but now I can kind of see why that isn't probably feasible.
It wouldn't leave enough at-bats for the three kids.

Gomez is the favorite. He's the Twins top offensive prospect, and has a lot of tools. He's being called the fastest player in the game, and has a rocket for an arm.

But, as we saw during Wednesday's win over the Yankees, he does not have that rocket arm under control. I still don't think he's ready.
The important thing for Gomez is that he plays everyday, either at Triple-A or with the Twins. I'd prefer he goes to Triple-A.

That would leave Pridie and Span. Pridie hasn't gotten much playing time so far, and I think that's because the Twins have a pretty good idea of what he can do. He looks like a guy who can be a Rich Becker-type player, coming off a very strong year in Triple-A.

Span has been a bust so far as a former 1st round pick. He says he's in it to win it, but I just don't buy it. He can't get on base.

My guess is Gomez wins the job, Pridie makes the team as a backup, and Span plays everyday in Triple-A. I'd rather have Pridie playing every day in Minnesota, Gomez playing everyday in Rochester, and Span learning how to become a bench player, because that's his future.

*Big, big homer for Garrett Jones off Joba Chamberlain. Jones is out of options, meaning he has to make the team or be exposed to waivers. I don't think Jones really deserves to make the team, and I don't think he will. I also don't think, especially after a bomb like that, that he'd clear waivers. So he's probably gone.

*Brian Buscher is another candidate for the bench, and he's been tearing it up so far. He's been scalding the ball, and has apparently been better in the field, too. He might get that 25th spot.

*Francisco Liriano to start Friday. Keep your fingers crossed.

This is you, Twins fans

2008-02-29T12:38:00.004-06:00

It goes without saying that Nick Punto is a polarizing figure among Twins fans.
There are fans with brains, who realize he should never get more than 200 at-bats in a season, and fans who treat Major League Baseball like a Disney movie, who believe childish virtues such as trying hard, smiling and sliding headfirst are enough to make someone a useful player.
The latter group bombards me with emails during the regular season telling me how I'm too negative and asking me why I hate the Twins so much (because as we all know, if you don't root for who and what Dick Bremer tells you to, you hate the Twins).

Earlier this week, Strib columnist Jim Souhan penned a column on Punto, which quoted Punto saying he planned to rebound and compete for playing time, and quoted Mike Redmond saying all sorts of ridiculous things about how good Punto is. No wonder everyone thinks Redmond has a future in managing. He has Gardy's ability to totally overvalue utility players.

And unfortunately, a large segment of Twins fans eat this stuff up.
This is a sampling of reader comments that appeared after Souhan's column. I have made up none of it.

I dont care what anyone says but he is among the top 10 defensive infielders in the current game, for him not to have won a golden glove in 2006 was an insult. He still makes the top 10 plays as much as Hunter and yet plays way less. The day punto leaves the twins is the day i stop cheering for them. punto fan forever

Punto is a huge asset to this Twins team that always prides itself on defense. Yes, he had an off year at the plate, but what these fickle fans love to forget is that Hunter had a slump a few years ago too, he couldn't do anything but hit into double plays. Without Punto's acrabatics in the field, the Twins would have lost many more games in '07. Give him a break! You'll be singing a different tune when his slump turns around.

Nick, you ARE a winner. A winner is not someone who wins a championship - that can happen to anyone lucky enough to be on the right team. A winner is someone who plays the game like you. Even when things are going bad.

Punto could go 1 for 400 next year and I'd still be on his bandwagon. I will wear his jersey proudly at the dome this season.

Nick Punto's hustle on the field, his acrobatic plays on defense, and his never-say-die attitude should make him the envy of everyone, and he's the kind of player we'd like our kids to emulate. With those remarkable attributes, he doesn't need to hit .300. The Twins and Twins fans are lucky to have him. Press on, Nick, and know we're behind you!

fans need to leave nick alone. none of you are major league baseball players so you dont know what they go through day in and day out.. nick gives constant effort, everyone should be happy to have someone like that on there team. so next time anyone wants to talk bad about nick realize you cant do what he does any better. how would you like to have thousands of people that dont have any experience in your line of work criticise you about how you do your job? thank about that and just enjoy the damn game........thank you

Punto plays on my team everyday. He has hit in the past and will again. He plays hard on every play, makes great plays and is the ultimate team guy. I would give him 2B and let him play...everyday. Although he had an off year in 06, I'd take him over any DH the Twins sent to the plate in the past few years

Hope you're proud of yourself Dick. I couldn't make this shit up if I wanted to.

There were, in the interest of fairness, some amusing comments from people who are apparently not retarded.

Now we're consider how guys feel? What's this...little league? To put all this in perspective, Punto put up one of the worst offensive seasons in modern history and now he thinks he should lead off!?? Being a terrible hitter doesn't make you a better fielder, and it sure as heck shouldn't win you the admiration of your manager. He's a good defensive player, but he's not that great.

Punto is one of the worst hitters in all of baseball and I would defy anyone to say that he says more runs on defense than he loses us on offense. It simply is laughable that Punto is still in a major league uniform. Twins fans are their own worse enemy. We always swoon over the overrated garbage i.e. Rivas, Punto, Tyner, Cuddyer, Kubel, and the fans are to blame partly for how bad the team has been shaped the last couple of years.

I'm glad you folks think he's so neat... At least our little 70 win team will have "good guys" playing for it. Little League is where everyone gets to play three innings and have one at bat; this is MLB, and I expect players who can play (and hit!!)... Fans need to stop accepting mediocrity!

I've written extensively about Punto, as have most Twins bloggers. Most seem to agree that Punto does in fact have value, but only if used sparingly and optimally.
But he should never play every day. Even his career year (now obviously a fluke) of 2006, his OPS+ was a modest 90. For his career its 69, meaning he's 31 percent below average.

Why do so many Twins fans tolerate mediocrity, or worse, outright shitiness??
Why? Why? Why? Why? Why?

Do these people even care if the Twins win? I'm so sick of people treating the big leagues like Little League.
These guys are making millions upon millions, and therefore ticket prices are through the roof all over the country.
If I'm going to pay $75 for a good seat, I'd at least hope that the team is trying to win, rather than trying to show little Tommy how to "play the game the right way".

If you want your shitty kid to learn how to play, buy one of those Tom Emanski videos.
The rest of us would prefer to see the Twins actually acquire players who are good major leaguers.

What can we expect from Francisco?

2008-02-26T01:04:00.002-06:00

You may remember that even though he won the AL Cy Young award in 2006, Johan Santana might've only been the second best starter on his team, as Francisco Liriano went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 Ks in 123 innings.
After beginning the year in the bullpen, he went on a tear through mid-summer in which he was un-hittable, landing him on the AL All-Star team and, with Santana, Brad Radke and Boof Bonser all pitching well, many favored the Twins to win the World Series if they could just get to the playoffs.

They got to the playoffs, of course, but Liriano blew out his elbow, Radke his shoulder, and the whole thing fizzled.

And, with Radke retired, Liriano out with Tommy John surgery, and the offense sucking ass, the '07 Twins stunk.

So now, as the Twins try to start over, one of the major questions for them is whether or not Liriano will ever regain his form.

Some guys (Erik Bedard, Matt Morris, Justin Verlander, John Smoltz) have come back strong from Tommy John surgery. Others (Jason Isringhausen, Steve Karsay) have become relievers afterward, and still others (Joe Mays) had their career essentially ended by it.

Liriano is young, 24, which certainly improves his chances of coming back strong, if not better than before.
Indications are that the Twins will take it slow with Liriano this year, and since they're not likely to compete this year, that would obviously be prudent.

When Joe Mays had TJ surgery, he told everyone he would come back stronger, probably because he had heard that elsewhere. But at his age that was unlikely. Guys who did come back stronger from TJ surgery, like Verlander, Eric Gagne and Mariano Rivera, had the surgery when they were young.

The Twins did the right thing by shutting down Liriano when he first had arm problems, even though it may have cost them a shot at the World Series, and if you believe what the team has been telling the media, every step of the rehab process has gone swimmingly.
The Strib is now reporting that Liriano hit 97-mph on the gun twice in a recent bullpen session, and has consistently been in the 92-95 mph range.
That's great news, but the real test will be when he starts snapping that 90-mph slider, the one that turns his elbow into a pretzel.

Plenty of sources have speculated that Liriano will throw somewhere between 120 and 160 innings this year. Does that mean they skip him in the rotation a few times? Limit him to 75 pitches per start? Start him in the minors or in the bullpen? It's anyone's guess.
The bottom line is that there's no reason to push him, unless the Twins somehow manage to compete in the AL race.

I think there's reason to believe Liriano will be a valuable, perhaps even elite pitcher again. Maybe as soon as this year. He may have to become a reliever one day, but that should be a last resort. The Twins, while not ready to compete now, still have plenty of young talent, and Liriano obviously is a key to getting back to the playoffs consistently.

I'm looking forward to his first outing this spring.

Delmon vs. Carl Crawford

2008-02-22T14:08:00.003-06:00

There's a war of words going back and forth between Twins camp and the Devil Rays camp, involving new Twins OF and former Rays phenom Delmon Young and veteran Tampa OF Carl Crawford.

Crawford seems to be going out of his way to make a point for some reason, accusing Young and Elijah Dukes of being cancerous players, while Young is doing an admirable job of mostly taking the high road.

Here's a link to the back and forth. Also worth noting are the comments at the bottom which overwhelmingly support Crawford and trash Young. That's to be expected since it's a Florida paper, but keep in mind, this is a franchise of losers.

And it begins

2008-02-20T23:53:00.003-06:00

Spring training has begun.
And obviously, things are a little different this year. Torii Hunter, Johan Santana, Carlos Silva, Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett are gone. And the Twins aren't expected to be in contention for a playoff spot.
I don't think the Twins are going to be bad, but I don't think they have a very realistic shot at the playoffs. I'm guessing somewhere between 75 and 83 wins. Their lineup should be a lot better, but the rotation is full of questions.

I could put together a list of at least 25 questions for spring training, but a lot of them are obvious. This is what I'll be paying closer attention to during spring practice.

*Boof Bonser's weight issues
He's lost over 25 pounds since last year (click on the photos for the full before and after look), when he posted a 5.10 ERA. The Twins felt his weight was a problem, and when you consider how well he pitched in the early innings compared to how badly he pitched in the middle and late innings, they may be right (it may also be that his stuff is simply better suited to the bullpen - we'll see).
So the question is, Does a lighter Boof mean a better Boof?

*Denard Span - seriously?
The first round pick of 2002 has been largely a disappointment as a minor-leaguer, but has come out swinging (figuratively) this spring, calling out media and bloggers who have written him off. He says he's going to be the Twins opening day CF, and he will be given a chance. I'm inclined to think his bat simply isn't good enough. Maybe he'll develop late, like Hunter did.

*Craig Monroe - will he stick?
If Monroe, who hit .219 last year, makes the team, he gets $3.82 million. If they cut him, they only have to pay him 800K. I really don't understand why the Twins offered him so much to begin with, and I think they'd probably be better off cutting him. But the Twins seem to think they can fix him, so I'm guessing that as long as he hits above .100 he makes the team.

*Nick Punto - will he play?
Please Gardy. You have a Gold Glove SS in Adam Everett, and two above-average offensive infielders at 2B (Brendan Harris) and 3B (Mike Lamb). Punto should be nothing more than a defensive replacement and once-a-week starter.

*Will Joe Nathan sign an extension?
Nathan is one of the game's top 3 closers. He can get a deal that would pay him in the $15 million a year range, but seems to be indicating he'll stay in Minnesota for less.
I don't think they should do it. The Twins organization is loaded with quality arms, and probably 4 to 7 of them could make quality closers. I love Nathan, he's the best the Twins have ever had, but a team on a budget simply shouldn't spend major money on a closer.
Gardy's pushing hard for the Twins to sign him, though. If it happens I certainly won't be upset, because Nathan is great. I just think there are better ways to spend money.

Almost there

2008-02-20T02:08:00.013-06:00

Pitchers and catchers have reported, and spring training will soon be in full swing.
We're getting closer to the end of five months of hell.
I just got back from the Twins Cities (I saw the Wild beat Nashville 5-4 in OT on a game-winner from Marian Gaborik with 4.4 seconds left - happy birthday to me), and am catching up at work. So in the meantime, here are some spring training pics to get you, uh, in the mood, so to speak, including a first look at some new faces.
Also, here's a link to an absolutely great read from ESPN's Jim Caple about participating in Twins fantasy camp. Check it out.

Jeff Christy, Joe Mauer, Eli Whiteside

Livan Hernandez

Kevin Mulvey

Philip Humber

Deolis Guerra

He shall be Livan

2008-02-12T10:32:00.000-06:00

While there were indications that the Twins were ready to hand the keys to the car to the kids, and open up all five spots of the starting rotation to the group of Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Brian Duensing (did I miss anybody?), they made a somewhat predictable move Tuesday and signed veteran fatty (I mean right-hander) Livan Hernandez to a 1-year, $5 million deal.

I'm not thrilled, as I'd kind of like the young guys to get their shot, and Hernandez is coming off an unimpressive year for Arizona. He went 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA, allowing 247 hits in 204 innings, with 79 walks and only 90 Ks. His WHIP was an ugly 1.595, and he allowed 34 homers.

On the other hand, Hernandez is maybe the most durable starter in the game. He's led the league in innings pitched three times, games started twice, and that can be beneficial to a team with young starters. Most likely, Livan's major task every time he takes the ball will be to give the Twins bullpen a break.

Over a 12-year career, Hernandez's average season has been 12-12 with a 4.25 ERA in 230 innings. He'll also replace Johan Santana as the team's top hitting pitcher, as Livan has a career .232 average with 9 homers.

Ultimately I'm fairly ambivalent about the move. Just going with the youngsters could've had its advantages, but Livan can help the team, too.

*Doug Mientkiewicz signed a 1-year deal with the Pirates. I've advocated the Twins adding Dougie as a bench player in recent years. He's got a great glove, and what many don't seem to realize is that he can play almost any position on the field - he's not limited to 1B. He's been effective when healthy over the last two seasons (he hit .283/.359/.411 for KC in '06, and .277/.349/.440 for the Yanks last year), but since the Bucs have Adam LaRoche, he's not going to Pittsburgh to start. You'd think he could find a bench job for a better team.

2008: The Perfect Year

2008-02-11T00:11:00.002-06:00

A few years ago while he was still writing for Sports Illustrated, Rick Reilly wrote a classic point after column titled the perfect day.

His day - which included things like breakfast in bed from Gabby Reece and the cancellation of track and field - sounded great. But I think he sold himself short. From here on out, I'm looking for the perfect year in 2008.

Mar. 1 - Tired of the Yankee bullshit and ready to devote himself to banging supermodels full-time, Derek Jeter retires.

Mar. 7 - Joe Buck comes down with a near-fatal mutated strand of strep throat. He survives but is rendered mute, and never broadcasts another game. Troy Aikman, upon hearing the news, spends the whole day giving fist-bumps to whoever he sees.

Mar. 16 - With a record of 20-10, and 10-8 in Big 10 play, the Minnesota Golden Gophers earn a spot in the NCAA tournament in their first year under Tubby Smith.

Mar. 31 - Torii Hunter homers twice, but the Twins beat the Angels 8-2 on opening day, behind seven strong innings from Scott Baker and homers from Joe Mauer, Delmon Young and Mike Lamb.

Mar. 31 - Johan Santana strikes out 10 in six innings in his Mets debut, but also allows four homers as the Marlins win 8-4. Santana's line in his first start: 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

Apr. 7 - While filming his latest Oscar contender, "Tiger Boy", Adam Sandler is eaten by a Siberian tiger.

Apr. 8 - Major League Soccer folds.

Apr. 29 - Johan Santana allows another three homers in a 7-1 loss. He finishes the month 1-3 with a 6.84 ERA. Everyone says, 'Don't worry, Santana always starts crappy.'

May 12 - Tired of living a lie, Debbie Clemens admits that she took HGH for her SI swimsuit photo shoot. Roger continues his denials.

May 18 - With my wife and I in attendance at Coors Field, Justin Morneau homers four times in a 14-3 Twins win over the Rockies. I catch three of them.

June 5 - Phil Hughes allows 7 runs in 2/3 of an inning, falling to 1-5 on the year.

June 8 - The Cubs improve to 48-14 with their 7th straight win. Cubs fever is through the roof. They have a 15 game lead in the NL Central.

June 9 - The Cubs blow an 8-0 lead in the 9th inning, losing 9-8.

June 12 - Carlos Gomez steals three bases in a Twins win over Cleveland, giving him 23, the most in the majors.

June 18 - Roger Clemens' legal team releases more "evidence" that he didn't take steroids, but no one is listening anymore.

June 19 - Kevin Garnett's 33 points, 17 rebounds and 11 assists lead the Celtics to a 99-95 win over Phoenix in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

June 25 - Brian Rolston's hat-trick leads the Minnesota Wild to a 5-1 win over Detroit in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals, giving the Wild the sweep, and bring the cup to America's true hockeytown.

July 4 - Brett Favre blows off three fingers on his right hand while lighting an M-80, but says he will still return to quarterback the Packers.

July 13 - Manny Ramirez is found dead in his hotel room, having suffocated in his hair.

July 22 - Marnie Gellnar divorces her husband and marries Ron Coomer.

July 26 - The Cubs lose another 9th inning lead for their 11th loss in 12 games.

July 30 - Order of AL East standings: Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Toronto, Boston, New York.

August 3 - Johan Santana allows his 40th HR of the year in a 5-3 loss. He's on pace to break Bert Blyleven's record for HR allowed in a season, and sports a 5-11 record with a 5.02 ERA.

August 11 - Gary Sheffield strikes out eight times in a double-header, dropping his average to .179.

August 16 - The Bengals release WR Chad Johnson, and no other teams sign him.

August 22 - The Cubs lose their fifth in a row and fall out of first place for the first time all year.

August 27 - Justin Morneau hits his 39th HR.

Sept. 2 - Brett Favre wins the Packers starting QB job despite having only two fingers on his throwing hand.

Sept. 11 - The pennant races are heating up. Tampa leads the O's by three games in the AL East, the Twins lead the Royals by six in the Central, and the Rangers lead by four games in the West. In the NL, the Nationals are running away with the East, while the Pirates and Brewers are tied for first in the Central. In the West, uh, I don't care I guess.

Sept. 16 - John Mayer electrocutes himself while playing the Star Spangled Banner at an Astros game. I don't really care if he dies or not, just as long as he stops making music.

Sept. 23 - The Cubs lose for the 22nd time in 25 games. Lou Piniella is committed.

Sept. 28 - Brett Favre throws two touchdown passes, one for each finger, in a 14-9 win over the Bears.

Sept. 29 - David Ortiz finishes the season with a .214 average and 10 homers for the 72-90 Red Sox, who edge the Yankees for 4th place in the East. Johan Santana finishes 8-16 with a 5.06 ERA for the Mets. He surrenders 53 homers, breaking Bert Blyleven's record.

Oct. 2 - The Twins open the ALDS with a 5-1 win over Tampa behind a strong outing from 20-game winner Boof Bonser.

Oct. 6 - Isiah Thomas is arrested on charges of sexual harassment and embezzlement. He is immediately raped in prison.

Oct. 19 - Adrian Peterson rushes for 444 yards in a 34-6 win over the Packers.

Oct. 20 - After several months in purgatory, Adam Sandler is sent to hell.

Oct. 25 - The Twins sweep the Pirates in the World Series. Delmon Young is MVP.

Nov. 9 - Wagering my tax return on a Twins World Series win pays off handsomely for me, and I spend my winnings on a hottub, a 71-inch flatscreen TV, a Ford F250 and breast implants for my wife. She doesn't need 'em, but what the hell, the Twins don't win the Series every day, and I like to spoil my womens.

Nov. 18 - For Title IX reasons, soccer is made a female-only sport nationwide. "Now soccer can be played the way it was meant to be played - by chicks only," says President-elect Ron Jeremy.

Nov. 24 - Something bad happens to Terrell Owens. I don't care what.

Nov. 29 - Though there's a month left in the season, Brett Favre retires, and refuses to do any interviews. He goes home to focus on fishing and is never heard from again.

Dec. 25 - Twinstown secures a sponsorship deal with Budweiser for $500,000 a year.

I'm feeling good about my chances. I'd say at least 70% of this stuff will happen for sure.

Get Back to Work

2008-02-07T23:23:00.000-06:00

I know, I know, I haven't updated in awhile - quit bitching, I've got something in the works for Monday.
In the meantime, try actually getting some work done today.
If that proves to be too much, enjoy this picture of Gianna Michaels.

You're welcome.

God I Hate Football

2008-02-03T21:22:00.000-06:00

At least he's in the National League

2008-01-29T21:48:00.000-06:00

He's gone. 93-44, with 1,381 strikeouts in 1,308 innings and a 3.22 ERA, Johan Santana is/was the greatest pitcher in Twins history, and he has been traded to the NY Mets for OF Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey.

Let's get this out of the way: It's an underwhelming haul for a two-time Cy Young award winner. If the offers from Boston and New York did indeed include names such as Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp, then the fact that the Twins ended up settling for a deal from the Mets that didn't even include their top prospect would make it pretty obvious that they held out too long.

Obviously, Bill Smith thought he could pit the Red Sox and Yankees against each other, but he should've known two things:
1 - The Sox didn't really need Santana, so the idea that they were going to clear the shelves of their minor league system for the right to give $130 million to a guy they didn't really need, was misguided. He should've recognized that the first offer(s), while not great, was as good as it would get.
2 - The Yankees definitely could use Santana. Their rotation does not have a true No. 1. Mike Mussina and Andy Pettite are washed up.
But in Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, they have three guys who could be very special. The smart play for the Yanks is to build around those three, using their money vault to fill in the other two spots in the rotation. They sensed this. Smith should've been prepared for that.

Here's another point, though: Santana wanted out, and he wanted out bad. He supposedly set a deadline for a deal for Tuesday. If the Twins didn't get a deal done by Tuesday, he'd report to spring training as a Twin and invoke his no-trade clause during the season.
I have a hunch that the Twins could've offered him $200 million over the next 8 years and he would've turned them down. Some have suggested he's never forgiven the team for keeping him in the bullpen for so long, or that he has never felt like the team has shown a willingness to make moves necessary for a World Series run.
Other reports say he wanted to be on the big stage in New York, and that he wanted to be in a city with a larger Latin American population (side note: Why is it OK for Latin players to say they want to be around more Latin guys? Justin Morneau can't say, 'I signed with the Twins because I wanted to be around other white guys'. Hell, these days even a black guy couldn't get away with saying that. So why is it OK when Omar Minaya and Arte Moreno openly admit to wanting to load their team with Latinos? Seems stupid)
So while many fans will undoubtedly try to blame this one on Carl Pohlad, and bitch about competitive balance and payrolls and etc., I don't think that really had much to do with this. Santana wanted to go. While part of me wants to wish him well in the NL, another part of me says good riddance and hopes he never wins more than 12 games. And wouldn't the Twins chances of getting out of the AL playoffs been slimmer if Santana was pitching for Boston or New York?

*It's bad enough that the Twins didn't land a Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury, but to make matters worse, they couldn't even get Fernando Martinez out of the Mets. Because Martinez is only 19 he's no sure thing, and there were some indications that the Twins actually preferred Gomez anyway. But it's still disappointing.

*As for the four guys the Twins end up with, they're all pretty good prospects, but they're all the kind of prospects the Twins already had. Mulvey and Humber are middle of the rotation guys, and the Twins probably have 10 guys at least (that's probably being modest), who project to be solid middle of the rotation major league starters. Guerra looks like he could be an ace, but at 19 years old, he's a long ways away and a lot could go wrong (which, incidentally, is what happened with Humber, who was the Mets top prospect before Tommy John surgery, and is now considered a No. 4 or No. 5).

I will say that after spending the entire day reading up on everything I could find about Gomez, I'm more encouraged about him than I was in my earlier review of the Mets prospects. I still think Martinez has more potential, but one thing I didn't really consider - and should've - in evaluating Gomez's somewhat underwhelming minor league stats was that the Mets, by almost all accounts, rushed him through their system too fast.
Gomez split last year between Triple-A in the majors, and while he didn't light it up, he did hold his own. He hit .232 in 58 games for the Mets, and .286 in 36 games in Triple-A. He was 21 at the time.

For a little perspective, consider that when Torii Hunter was 21, he spent the whole year in Double-A and was atrocious, hitting .231/.305/.338.
Gomez may not hit for power, but he will steal bases and he will be an outstanding defensive center fielder. He's supposedly even faster than Mets SS Jose Reyes. He'll just need to work on his on-base skills.
While I hope the Twins send him to Triple-A this year to do just that, I wouldn't be surprised if they make him their opening day CF.
What they should do is sign Kenny Lofton to a 1-year deal to hold the spot down so Gomez can get another year of seasoning.

I'm not thrilled with the deal, but by waiting as long as they did, this was the best they were gonna do. They waited last off-season, when they could've signed Johan and Torii, and now they waited again. And got burned again. At the very least, the Morneau and Michael Cuddyer signings suggest they're finally learning from those mistakes.

It's worth noting that nobody liked the Chuck Knoblauch trade at the time, and it ended up helping to turn the team's fortunes around.
If Gomez and Guerra reach their potential this will end up being a decent, maybe even great trade, and anything added by Mulvey and Humber would just be a bonus.
But there's always the chance it could be a stinker, too.

A losing hand

2008-01-29T15:28:00.000-06:00

It's not official, but there are reports surfacing that Johan Santana has been traded to the Mets for OF Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey. Fernando Martinez is apparently not part of the deal. Santana will of course have to work out a contract with the Mets for the deal to go through.

Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera, or Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and Jed Lowrie both seem like much, much better deals to me. If this is true, the Twins overplayed their hand and paid dearly for it.
Of course, if even two of those four prospects turn into quality players, we'll look back at this and laugh.
Here's hoping it happens.

Morneau, Cuddyer sign

2008-01-28T01:11:00.001-06:00

Over the weekend Justin Morneau signed a six-year deal for $80 million, the richest contract in Twins history, and Michael Cuddyer signed a 3-year, $23 million deal with an option for a fourth.
I'm tired so I won't go into a lengthy breakdown of the deal, but I'll make a couple points.
*This is good news. By locking up these two, the Twins now have their four best hitters, Morneau, Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Joe Mauer, locked up for the foreseeable future. It sends a positive message to the fans and to the existing players, at a time when public perception of the team was negative and getting worse by the day.
*They overpaid. While Morneau was the driving force behind the team's AL Central title in '06, which garnered him the AL MVP, he's been essentially an average first baseman the rest of his career. Some have used that fact to say that signing him to such a big deal is a mistake, but I am definitely not going there. I think it's a good gamble to expect that Morneau is entering into the prime of his career. Will he hit .321 every year, as he did in '06? Maybe not. But if he hits .275-.300 with over 30 homers each year, my guess is the deal will look like a bargain in a few years, by which time his annual salary of $13 million will probably seem modest.
When you factor in how badly the Twins have struggled to find players like Morneau, this was a deal they had to make.
Cuddyer was actually below average for a RF last year, but giving $8 million a year to a guy who can hit .275 with 20 homers while playing decent defense is OK. He's also one of the most popular players on the Twins, which might have contributed to the team's willingness to pay him. Should something like that matter? Probably not, but I'm OK with it.
Bottom line, sometimes you overpay in the present to avoid really overpaying in the future (which, by the way, is the reason Torii Hunter and Johan Santana are not currently signed to long-term contracts with the Twins).
*The Santana factor
Does this mean the Twins are going to take another run at signing Johan Santana? That's what some are speculating, but my guess is it actually means they're close to a deal. I'd be surprised if the Twins budged from their 4-year, $80 million offer. Then again, maybe they'll decide that they really like what they have and it's worth bending over and paying him. We'll see.

Mets?

2008-01-23T00:31:00.000-06:00

While no one really totally believes them, the Yankees are saying they’re out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes. And if that’s the case the leverage with the Red Sox is certainly lessened, since many believe they only want Santana to keep him away from the Yanks in the first place. The Yankees kind of need Santana, the Red Sox don’t.

Why would Boston trade Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester when they can probably win the World Series and keep them?

That has led many to speculate that the New York Mets, long considered wannabe outsiders in the Santana dealings, may now be the favorite. The Mets are badly in need of starting pitching, and after last year's collapse at the end of the season, desperate to give the team a shot in the arm. The consensus seems to be that Mets GM Omar Minaya (guy in the suit) will find a way to get it done.

If that’s the case, it presents a good news-bad news scenario for the Twins.

The bad news is that they will not acquire any major league players in a deal with the Mets, they will receive prospects.

And I don’t need to tell you there have of course been several times in trade history when a bundle of prospects acquired in exchange for a proven veteran was unable to produce anything useful. It’s always risky.

The good news is that Santana would be going to the National League where the Twins would never have to see him, save for once every three or four years for interleague play.

The other good news is that while the returns would be disappointing in the short term, there’s a chance the deal could heavily favor the Twins over the long haul.

As of right now, the Mets offer is reportedly outfielder Carlos Gomez (3) and pitchers Deolis Guerra (2), Kevin Mulvey (4)and Phil Humber (7). The numbers in parentheses is their prospect ranking within the organization by Baseball America.

Gomez and Humber appeared in the big leagues in ‘07, so they’d have a chance to help the Twins now, though those two are the lesser of the group. To me, Gomez’s numbers in the minors don’t seem to project anything better than David DeJesus - the good but certainly not great CF for the Royals. Humber looks like another Kyle Lohse - decent strikeout rate, but a 4.11 career ERA in 54 minor-league starts.

Guerra will turn 19 in April and has already made 20 solid starts at the high A level, while Mulvey would probably have a chance to join the Twins rotation now. The ceiling on Guerra and Mulvey could be as a No.1 or No. 2 starter.

Those might be four useful players, but it’s still an underwhelming return for a two-time Cy Young winner, if for no other reason than three of the four are pitchers, and pitching prospects are further from a sure thing than hitters.

The wild card here is a 19-year old outfielder named Fernando Martinez, the Mets undisputed No. 1 prospect. While he’s not currently believed to be part of the Mets offer, the Twins would almost certainly demand him as part of any deal, and the Mets have yet to declare him off limits the way they did with SS Jose Reyes (and the Yanks did with Joba Chamberlain). Strib beat writer LaVelle E. Neal III suggested that Martinez could be in play if the Twins would include a prospect of their own to go to NY with Santana.

Some reports have said the Twins would ask for Martinez to be added to the current deal, with the thinking probably being that Gomez could take over in CF now, while Martinez would be given another year or so in the minors. But if Martinez becomes part of the deal, I say let the Mets keep Gomez. If Gomez is the next David DeJesus, Martinez is the next Carlos Beltran.

So the deal could end up being Santana to the NL (a good thing to be sure), for a top-flight CF prospect, two highly regarded pitching prospects and a third who could also prove useful at the big-league level.

Here’s a closer look at the five Mets propspects being mentioned.

*Fernando Martinez - OF

6-1, 190

Age: 19 Bats: L Throws: R

He signed for $1.4 million at the age of 16 and skipped rookie ball altogether, going straight to Single-A Hagerstown of the South Atlantic League, where he hit .328/.383/.497 in 195 at-bats – at the age of 17. This earned him a call-up to the higher Single-A club in St. Lucie, and while he hit only .193, he did hit 5 homers in 119 at-bats, still at the age of 17. For a 17-year old to be able to hit 10 homers in just over 300 at-bats against Single-A pitching is almost totally unheard of, though he struggled to repeat it in ‘07. He spent last year at Double-A Binghamton, and at age 18, hit .271/.336/.377.Reports say he has the speed to play CF and the arm to play RF.

When he signed at age 16 scouts were making comparisons to Ted Williams, and doing so with a straight face. That’s pretty harsh for such a young kid, but he does appear capable of being a five-tool player. He might be ready for the big leagues by ‘09, but 2010 is probably more likely.

*Carlos Gomez - OF

6-2, 170

Age: 22 Bats: R Throws: R

He spent part of last year with the Mets, and at age 21, hit .232/.288/.304 in 58 games. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he hit .286/.363/.414. His minor-league numbers are good but by no means great - .278/.339/.399 in 1,291 at-bats. He does have 141 steals, including 64 in one year. With little power, he’s more of a lead-off type guy (which makes that .339 OBP all the more depressing). His strikeout-walk ratio (250 K’s, 82 walks in 1,291 ABs) is also fairly unimpressive. Gomez seems to me to be one of those guys everyone likes for his athleticism more than his actual performance. I’m just not all that excited about his numbers. Maybe he’ll start hitting.

*Deolis Guerra - RHP

6-5, 200

Age: will be 19 in April

Another guy who skipped rookie ball, Guerra made 17 starts in the Sally League in ‘06 and posted a 2.20 ERA, allowing 59 hits with 64 Ks and 37 walks in 82 innings. Like Martinez, he was 17 when he did this.

Last year, at age 18, he made 20 starts at St. Lucie (high A), posting a 4.01 ERA, allowing 80 hits with 66 Ks and 25 walks in 90 innings. He’s Venezuelan, throws a 95-mph fastball and is working on a changeup. Sound familiar?

*Kevin Mulvey - RHP

6-1, 170

Age: 23 in May

The Mets 2nd round pick in ‘06 out of Villanova, Mulvey made one start before finishing the season with three strong starts at Double-A. That’s where he started in ‘07, going 11-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 26 starts. In 151 innings he allowed 145 hits with 110 Ks and 43 walks. He finished the season with a single start at Triple-A, where he tossed six shutout innings. He has a good fastball and his top secondary pitch is a slider. Is probably very close to being ready now.

*Phil Humber - RHP

6-4, 210

Age: 25

The Mets 1st round pick out of Rice in ‘04, Humber got his first cup of coffee last year. He was the third overall pick in ‘04 and held out for a $3.77 million bonus. That would suggest he’s a future No. 1 (being a 6-4, hard-throwing righty from Nocagdotches, Texas, he was often compared to Ryan, Clemens, Wood, Beckett, etc.), but most scouts currently regard him as a No. 4. That’s probably partially due to the fact he had Tommy John surgery in ‘05. It’s probably also partially due to the fact that he has a 4.11 ERA in 54 career minor-league starts. Still, his 266 K’s in 290 innings is promising.

I think I still like the Yankees and Red Sox offers better, and I think the Twins will still give both of those teams every opportunity to stay in the game. But if they have to turn to the Mets, there's still a chance they can come away with a decent package.
As long as it includes Fernando Martinez.

Morneau, Rincon sign

2008-01-18T15:46:00.000-06:00

No, the Twins didn't lock up Justin Morneau to a multi-year deal, but they did agree to a 1-year, $7.4 million contract to avoid arbitration.
Morneau is locked into being a Twin through 2010, so it's not like they were in danger of losing him, but this is still somewhat significant.
Avoiding arbitration is always the better move for the team, because if you go that far, you have to sit in a room and tell an arbitrator why you don't think a player is worth as much as he thinks he is. Considering Morneau and other key Twins are already ornery about the likelihood that they'll play the 2008 season without Torii Hunter, Johan Santana, Carlos Silva and possibly Joe Nathan, it's probably not a good idea to make Morneau any more unhappy.
My guess is they told him something along the lines of, "Hey, we want to get you signed to a long-term deal, but our hands are pretty much tied until the Santana thing gets solved. So for now, here's a nice 1-year offer (he made $4.5 million last year, so he's getting quite a raise), and when we get the Santana thing squared away maybe we can get back to work on a deal for you."
The two sides can continue to negotiate later, and if they strike a deal they can simply agree to tear up the 1-year deal and let a new one kick in.

*As for Juan Rincon, he agreed to a 1-year deal worth $2.475 million.
Yes, he had a bad year last year, but the Twins could be thin in the bully next year. Pat Neshek can't be asked to pitch out of every jam.
It's not a terrible risk, at 2 1/2 million, to try to get Rincon straightened out. Then again, his strikeout rate has decreased each of the last two years. He's apparently been closing in the winter Venezuelan league - hopefully he is able to find the old magic. Because I think fans forget that from 2004-06 he was as dominant and reliable as any setup man in the game.

A Friday update

2008-01-18T02:17:00.000-06:00

So I didn't find the time for one-on-one interviews with Ron Gardenhire or Pat Neshek Wednesday, because I was too busy working on a story about poker.
I wish I were kidding. I am not.
I still made the trip to the Twins Caravan, though. The best part was the beer.
Gardy was an impossibly nice guy, taking time to answer any and all questions honestly and thoughtfully, while Neshek seemed extremely uncomfortable.
Everyone wanted to know about Johan Santana, of course, and Gardy said that, if a trade is made, it has to be for players who can help now, because "we're not rebuilding here."
Not yet you're not, Ron.
Side note: Stunningly, he never used the phrase "battle/battled his/their tail off" once. I was ready to keep a running tally and it never happened.
Turning over a new leaf? Doubt it.

*At one point there was a crying baby near the stage, and Gardy said "Someone tell AJ to be quiet." Good one, Gardy.
*While Gardy seems to think the Twins are going to land players who can help now in the Santana sweepstakes, there are some rumblings that the Mets are now the leader, and that would mean full-on rebuilding. All of the prospects mentioned in their package (I'll get to it next week), are either marginal prospects or at least two years away from being ready.
If they accept a deal for five 19-year olds from the Mets when they could've had Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes from the Yanks, or Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson from Boston, I'll be pissed.
This thing is almost guaranteed to be ugly for Bill Smith in the short term.

*No progress being made at all in regards to Justin Morneau and an extension. I would advise them to get that done, because he's just getting more expensive by the day.
*Jason Kubel signed a 1 year, $1.3 million deal. Wonder if that means they'll actually play him.
* I think Roger Clemens is guilty as hell, and I'm very much enjoying his public fall from grace. He's always been a piece of shit.
*I hope Randy Moss is not guilty.
*Why is Randy Wittman employed?
*Why can't Spencer Tollackson make a free throw? (Don't care if I spelled that wrong, BTW)
*Why did I get a haircut?

Twins Caravan

2008-01-16T02:35:00.000-06:00

I'll be at Rookie's Wednesday night for the Twins Caravan, which probably means I'm going to end up interviewing Ron Gardenhire and Pat Neshek.
That might sound cool, but I'm not all that psyched. I'm sure they're going to totally be in the mood to listen to me ask them the same questions that the Twin Cities media has been pelting them with since Christmas.
Anyway, stop by and say hi if you can, otherwise wait for me to weigh in with my uncensored thoughts sometime Thursday.

Fever Pitch: Yay or Gay?

2008-01-14T01:04:00.000-06:00

I will admit to being surprised by the negative reaction to my declaration of Fever Pitch as my 5th favorite baseball movie.
I knew nobody liked Jimmy Fallon (I don't either), but, like I said, after putting my dislike for Fallon aside, I liked it. Roger Ebert gave it 3 1/2 stars out of 4, for what that's worth (he also loved Field of Dreams and The Sandlot, and he hated The Natural, so I get the sense he has a handle on baseball movies).
But the number of negative responses, many from people whose opinion I respect (not you Rex), got me thinking.
Maybe I was wrong. Maybe I was blinded by the fact that Fever Pitch was on HBO like every day right before I left on my baseball-themed honeymoon with my wife.
So I popped it in the DVD player this weekend to watch it again, with a critical eye.

Here's the new verdict:
There are some things that are, yeah, pretty gay. Hammy dialog, over the top annoying-ness from Fallon, plot contrivances and whatnot.
Early on in fact, I felt this sinking feeling - Oh, shit, they're right. This is gay.
But eventually the things I liked about it before re-emerged.
Namely, two characters that I could relate to and liked, which probably goes to show just what a great writer Nick Hornby is, since the characters are played by Fallon and Drew Barrymore.

It's a romantic comedy, and if that alone is your reason for hating it, well, check your phony masculinity at the door, Rambo. I'm not impressed. But I'll admit, Fever Pitch works better as a romantic comedy than as a baseball movie (some have said the same thing about Bull Durham, though I wouldn't).

Thing is, there was still a lot of stuff I liked.
I liked the parts where he's teaching the basics of the game to his clueless girlfriend, something we've all done at some point.
I liked how his apartment was like a Sox gift shop. The worst part of being married is that my bitchy wife won't let me do the same thing to our house. I related to that quite strongly.
I liked that the first gift he buys his girlfriend is a Sox warm-up jacket. I also have a habit of buying gifts for women that would be better suited for me. That way if you break up or she doesn't like it - you can keep it!
I liked the part where he gets his season tickets in the mail, and pulls them out of the box in big sheets and smells them. How cool would that be?
I like that he forces his friends to enter a draft to accompany him to games. That seemed sensible to me.
I think a lesser movie would've tried to make Fallon (and, ergo, all die-hard baseball fans) look idiotic, or selfish. But this movie understands and even sympathizes with the guy. It basically says, yeah, this guys' a little weird but there's nothing wrong with that. Sometimes I need that reassurance.
I like that Drew Barrymore doesn't know anything about baseball but tries really hard to learn. A bad movie would've made her uber-bitchy or inserted some lame contrived excuse for her to hate baseball (her dad was killed by a Louisville slugger, or something). But written the way she was, she basically reminded me of every girlfriend and pseudo-girlfriend I've ever had, except my wife.
I like the way the movie takes place over the course of the season, and their relationship mirrors the success of the Red Sox. My mood in the summer often depends on how the Twins are doing, so, again, that made sense.
I liked the scenes in the ballpark. They made me want to be at a game. They make me want to go to Fenway Park. You might think that's a given, that any movie can do that simply by bringing a camera into the ballpark, but Rookie of the Year was filmed at Wrigley Field, and it pretty much made me want to stay as far away from Wrigley Field as possible.
I liked Drew Barrymore's big sister a lot. She's shit-hot. She looks like she could be an American Gladiator. Damn. I even thought it was funny when the fat friend called the gym instructor a Nazi bitch.
The ending is completely outrageous and unbelievable, I'll admit it, but hey, it's a movie. Not a documentary about Red Sox fans (which would be even lamer than it sounds, I'm sure).

I had a conversation once with a serious girlfriend in which I admitted to her that I would never be able to love her as much as I love baseball. I knew that it was the wrong thing to say, but I wanted to be honest. She didn't react as badly as you might think, but, needless to say, we are no longer together. I've never said the same thing to my wife, but I think she's aware of the possibility. I thought of that in the scene where they're fighting and Fallon says, "Name one thing in your life you cared about 23 years ago that you still do! 10 years! 5!"
Further evidence, of course, that men are better than women.

In hindsight, Fever Pitch is not better than the vastly overrated but still good Bull Durham. So I'd probably switch those two on my list. But otherwise, I'm sticking by it.
And you can all kiss my gay ass.

My 10 Favorite baseball flicks

2008-01-10T14:07:00.000-06:00

A couple weeks ago I blogged the best baseball books I've read (though I probably forgot a few to be honest). So now, with nothing happening with the Twins (will they really go to spring training with Johan Santana still in the fold?), we might as well cover the best baseball movies.
Movies are a little bit of a different animal. Many of them, perhaps most of them, are bad. Not that I haven't read some bad baseball books (Slouching Toward Fargo by Neal Karlen comes to mind), but I think movies don't try as hard to be good because they know stupid people will fork over their $8 to see bad baseball movies, something your average Joe won't do for a book.
(Football is worse, though. Almost every football movie is terrible. They create a bunch of cookie-cutter characters and make them hit each other, get some cheerleaders and a loud, obnoxious soundtrack, and, well, that's usually about it. Baseball movies aren't quite so formulaic - most of the time)

As a kid I can remember every time I saw a trailer for a sports movie on TV I immediately wanted to see it, and as a dumb kid, usually enjoyed them. As an adult, I almost never get excited about sports movies. I generally try to stay away from them, because they're usually lame. But there have been some very good ones.
This is my list, but I should stress that as I am no movie critic, I'm not calling these "the greatest baseball movies ever", but rather, my own personal favorites. Here's my top 10, starting at No. 10.

10. Soul of the Game
A made for TV (don't worry, HBO, not CBS) film set in 1944, after the death of segregationalist commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis. With Landis' death, Negro League All-Stars Satchel Paige (Delroy Lindo), Josh Gibson (Mykelti Williamson - aka Bubba Gump) and Jackie Robinson (Blair Underwood) all sense that integration of the major leagues may be around the corner. Branch Rickey is indeed looking to break the color barrier for his Brooklyn Dodgers, but while Gibson and Paige both assume it will be one of them, if not both at the same time, Rickey is eyeing the unassuming, educated and soft-spoken Robinson.
While there's plenty of good baseball scenes, the movie is carried by Lindo's portrayal of the flamboyant Paige. The movie doesn't turn the black players into saints, instead showing them as human beings with just as many flaws as their white counterparts. The final scene, with a Negro League All-Star team preparing to take on a team of big leaguers, with racial tension scorching the field, is just about heartbreaking.

9. *61
Ostensibly about the homerun chase of 1961, this movie is really almost a bio-pic of Roger Maris, one of the most unfortunate souls baseball has ever known.
Barry Pepper not only looks just like him, he plays Maris as the tortured, nervous and uncomfortable person he supposedly was. Director, Yankee fan and tool Billy Crystal, surprisingly, keeps his hero worship mostly in check (though there is a useless scene where a fat italian guy that's supposed to be Yogi Berra appears at batting practice and recites a bunch of Yogi-isms in a forced and distracting manner). I liked the way the movie looked, from the uniforms to the stadiums, to the way they held and swung the bats (but what was with the helmets that looked like they were made of felt?).
By the end of this one you're really pulling for Maris, and feel bad that his record was broken by a bunch of roid-heads.

8. The Rookie
Based on the true story of Jim Morris, the 38-year old science teacher who basically made the Tampa Bay Devil Rays as a walk-on, the Rookie is so perfect as an inspirational fairy tale that it would probably be considered lame, cliched and contrived if it weren't true.
Dennis Quaid is barely passable as a pitcher (you can tell he worked so hard to make his delivery believable that it has an almost robotic feel to it), but he's great as a good-natured coach, teacher and dad, the kind of guy you would want to pull off something like this. It mosies along pleasantly enough for most of the way, but from the part where he gets called up to when he makes his Major League debut it's almost perfect, venturing into tear-jerker territory at almost every moment.

7. A League of Their Own
The fact that Tom Hanks has won I don't know how many Oscars and none of them were for his portrayal of "Jimmy Dugan" (based on the real-life Jimmy Foxx), doesn't seem right to me.
A League of Their Own is an important historical piece, because I don't think most people even knew the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League existed until it was made.
It's easy to pull for the girls in the movie, and they are all believable as ballplayers. The World Series ending is very well-done, partly because unlike a lot of sports movies, you really don't quite know how it will end. But the reason it's a great movie is how well it shows that baseball is something you fall in love with and don't let go of, and that that is something that has nothing to do with whether you're a man or a woman. Hanks' character begins the film hating the idea of women playing ball, but by the end he's neck-deep in it because he's realized it's not about the girls, it's about the game.
A League of Their Own would be higher on my list if it weren't for the horrible little-sister character, horribly played by Lori Petty, which occasionally threatens to ruin the film, and also makes the climax a little disappointing. But Hanks' performance is one of the greatest in baseball movie history.
The speech he gives Geena Davis when she tries to quit the team is mesmerizing, the speech he gives in the clubhouse before the big game is funny and touching, and his cut-off man lecture to the rightfielder (the second one) is an all-time classic.
Still my favorite part is when Geena Davis tells him right before the big game, "Jimmy don't you ever shave, you look like shit," causing him to turn around and say to himself under his breath, "We're gonna win!" Pure gold.

6. Bull Durham
Maybe the most overrated sports movie in history, but it's still pretty good, which is why it makes the list.
Overrated because some of the stuff in here is just plain stupid. Like Tim Robbins. He's terrible as a pitcher, and I didn't think his portrayal of the dumb, wet-behind-the-ears rookie was really all that convincing, either. There are some issues that stretch the film's credibility, too, like Nuke getting called up from A-ball to the majors (not impossible but extremely rare), a late-30s catcher accepting a demotion to A-ball (no team would even bother to try), and the scene behind the bar when Crash (Kevin Costner) pulls a baseball out of his jacket and Nuke can't hit him with it from literally three feet away. That scene is an embarrassment. Crash's "kisses that last three days" speech is also extremely contrived and lame.
And while I really like the Susan Sarandon character, the parts where she acts as a pitching coach to Nuke and a hitting coach to Crash are ridiculous and unnecessary.
Still, there's an awful lot the movie gets right, making it nearly impossible for any ex-player not to enjoy it.
The obvious highlights are when Crash tells the hitter what's coming when Nuke shakes him off (especially the second such instance), the "cocksucker" argument with the umpire, the fight over song lyrics on the bus, and Trey Wilson's "lollygagger" tantrum in the lockerroom. But there are less-obvious moments that the movie gets right, too, like when Crash shows up in Durham, announces he's quitting, then turns around and asks what time the next day's game starts. Or the scene when Wilson has to cut a struggling player, and the scene when Crash apologizes for a drunken tantrum he directed towards Nuke the night before.
Bull Durham is not the greatest baseball movie ever made, and certainly not the best sports movie ever made, as Sports Illustrated declared it a few years ago. But it's up there.

5. Fever Pitch
It's a credit to a movie that it can star Jimmy Fallon and Drew Barrymore and still be not-horrible, let alone as good as this one is. In fact, I didn't really like Fever Pitch all that much the first time I saw it, because I didn't give it a chance. Any movie with Jimmy Fallon, I reasoned, couldn't possibly be watchable. But in the same way SLC Punk not only overcomes the presence of Matthew Lillard but is actually strengthened by it, Fever Pitch probably wouldn't work with someone else in the lead role.
In recent years I've come to absolutely hate the Red Sox, largely because of oversaturation and a sudden rash of phony "Sawx" fans, and I still love this movie. While it perfectly nails what it's like to be a diehard fan, it does an even better job, I think, of capturing the anticipation for opening day. The agony of waiting through winter, counting down the days, and the magic of finally making the walk to the ballpark, of emerging from the concourse to see that ocean of green on a crisp April day.
I also like how the movie paints Fallon's character as an extremist without mocking him or turning him into a bad guy. It understands people like him (and me). And the Berrymore character is well-written. She doesn't really get the fascination with baseball, but she genuinely tries to. This movie could be a good "how-to" manual for a couple in a similar predicament. And it's also very funny. It's kind of like High Fidelity, which isn't surprising since both are
based on books written by Nick Hornby.

4. The Bad News Bears
More than likely we've all been on a Little League team that had a lot of these same kids on it. Walter Matthau is definitely hilarious as the liquored-up coach, but the kids are the best part. I've known a lot of kids like Kelly Leak, and the fat kid, and the pottymouth kid, and so on. It also works as a sort of social commentary on how carried away adults can get with youth sports. The scene where the kid refuses to pitch for his crazy dad in the big game is a reminder that usually kids are more interested in having fun than winning. Certainly Bad News Bears is not politically correct (which is why the recent remake starring Billy Bob Thornton wasn't quite as good), but watching it today that just makes it funnier.

3. The Sandlot
In a lot of ways, The Sandlot is similar to The Bad News Bears, because it's another example of how much better baseball is for kids when adults aren't involved. They usually just get in the way, and this movie reminds you how much better it is when the kids can just be kids, and go play without having to worry about rules or wins and losses. The Sandlot is set in the 1960s, but it just as well could've been set at Linwood Park on Walker Way in Sioux Falls, circa 1990. As much fun as I had in Little League all the way up through Legion ball, the most fun we usually had as kids was getting a game together at the Park (if we were really lucky we could go 5 on 5 or 6 on 6), with no uniforms, no coaches, no umpires, just a bunch of kids spitting, swearing, sliding and fighting all day long, nearly every day.
The Sandlot is sort of a PG version of that. It's just a movie about what it's like to be a kid in the summer. You play ball, you go swimming, you have sleepovers - over and over.

2. Field of Dreams
A common theme among all the great baseball movies, and pretty much every one on this list, is the examination of baseball's role in the lives of those who love it. It's not just a game to those people, it's a significant part of who they are. Something that has shaped them, and that they can always go back to now matter how far they may have strayed from it.
Field of Dreams of course, takes this idea to an extreme. There are hardly any baseball action scenes in the movie, no "big games", and yet it has still managed to become almost the quintiessential "baseball movie".
You know the story. Kevin Costner builds the field and he doesn't know why he's doing it, but he comes to discover that baseball was the one common bond between him and his father, and it helps him rediscover himself and reconcile with his estranged (actually dead) father. Along the way he helps two strangers - a bitter, aging writer and a doctor who played an inning in the Majors but never got to bat - remember what the game meant to them, too.
I've read a lot of reviews of Field of Dreams that ripped it for being ridiculous, corny, sappy, etc., and while I can kind of understand how someone might react that way, I think that almost proves why the movie is so great.
If you look at it critically, Field of Dreams is sappy and ridiculous.
But that's sort of the point. Those who really love the game love it so much that they don't even question Field of Dreams. It's almost perfect.

1. Major League
Movie critics have never really given Major League much due. When it was released in 1989, it probably (and perhaps rightfully) seemed like a Bull Durham rip-off (aging catcher, goofy rookie pitcher, sexy and smart girlfriend).
But Major League improves on a lot of Bull Durham's mistakes (which, not coincidentally, were mostly baseball-specific things that your average movie critic probably didn't catch), and it also looks at the game from a bigger scope (Majors as opposed to minors).
The early scenes in which the film establishes the plot (the owner wants to tank the season to move to Miami), are often hilarious ("This guy here's dead!" "Cross him off then.")
But any baseball fan will be immediately hooked by the movie's realism. The spring training scenes are great, and establish right away that the filmmakers know how a Major League team is put together, and what the months of March through May are like for fans, players and the manager.
The in-game action scenes are the best of any baseball movie ever. Charlie Sheen was supposedly a good high school pitcher and it shows. Not only is he the best baseball-playing actor we've probably ever seen, his acting is also better than Tim Robbins' was in Bull Durham. Tom Berenger, Corbin Bernsen, Dennis Haysbert and Wesley Snipes (among others) also give true-to-life performances, while James Gammon is practically Oscar-worthy as manager Lou Brown. Bob Uecker is essentially playing himself as the radio guy, but that's certainly not a bad thing.
One could argue that the authenticity of the baseball scenes is less important than how well the movie is written, acted, directed and so on, but I think that misses the point. The actors are so believable that you begin to feel like you're watching and following a real team, and you begin rooting for them. As the Indians heat up and start winning you become a fan, and the movie does a perfect job of capturing the way in which a winning baseball team can take over an entire city. The scenes in the bar where the punk rockers are hugging the construction workers aren't just funny, they're true-to-life.
Many sports movies end with "The Big Game", and a lot of times that ruins them. But watching the final couple innings of the big game in Major League is almost like the real thing because it is so well done. The stadium is full and rocking, the players are on the edge of the dugout, the radio guy is standing up in the booth, and even though you know its a movie you're on the edge of your seat and your heart is pounding.
Then comes the most perfect ending ever.
Wesley Snipes comes charging around third with Uecker's voice-over, "Hayes around third, he's gonna try to score!"
The throw comes home from first, but Snipes executes a perfect hook slide. Faintly, you can hear Uecker saying, "He issss....", and the camera switches to a close up on the umpires face, and he screams, "Safe! Safe!", and we cut back to Uecker, who jumps out of his chair and screams, in the best line in baseball movie history "And the Indians win it! The Indians win it! Oh my God the Indians win it!"
That's the last line in the movie, but we still get another five minutes of celebration scenes, which, again, are perfectly executed. The fans rushing on the field, not sure what to do but just wanting to be a part of it, while the players hug everyone they can get their hands on.

A couple years ago I was working on a column about the best baseball movies that was to run in the paper, but it ultimately got cut when we realized it would be as long as the blog entry I'm doing right now.
But before that decision was made I went down to the Canaries clubhouse one day and went around the clubhouse, asking every player to name his favorite baseball film. Major League was an almost unanimous choice. And I specifically remember what Chad Hermansen, a former Major Leaguer said, because it was going to be the best quote of the story I was working on.
"Anyone who would say anything besides Major League," Hermansen said, "probably doesn't know baseball all that well."

Put him in the goddamn Hall

2008-01-07T01:17:00.000-06:00

Major League Baseball will induct another Hall of Fame class this week, and almost certainly, Bert Blyleven will once again be left out.

The closest the Twins TV color man and 22-year veteran has come to the required 75 percent of the vote was in 2006, when he got 53.3 percent. That dropped last year to 47.7 percent.
I set out to compile a definitive report on why Blyleven should be a Hall of Famer, and when i did so, I began armed with mostly peripheral information: Lots of strikeouts, a good ERA, two World Series rings, and maybe the most legendary curveball in history.

The more research I did, however, the more clear it became and the angrier I got. It's a joke (or a travesty, depending on how serious you take this stuff) that Blyleven isn't in. In fact, he's exhibit A for the argument that too many of the sportswriters and other media covering this game are still clinging to prehistoric notions, and that the traditional methods used by the mainstream media to judge players' worth are far outdated.
These are the typical arguments for why Bert doesn't belong:

He didn't reach 300 wins (the arbitrary "magic number" made up by sportswriters in the middle part of the 20th century).
He was only 37 games over .500 (287-250).
He's 10th all-time in losses.
He only won 20 games once.
He never won a Cy Young award.
He only made two All-Star games.

Notice most of these excuses revolve around wins and losses. Writers love to smugly say things like, "It's not the Hall of Very Good", and then point to Bert's winning percentage.
This is stupid to the Nth degree. If you ever hear someone say something like this on TV, never listen to anything they say ever again.

Teams win games. Hitting, fielding, relief pitching, weather and ballpark dimensions all play a part in who wins the game. So judging a pitcher on just W's is obviously pointless when so many other outside factors are involved.
In 2007 for example, Johan Santana pitched 219 innings, struck out 235 batters, walked 52 and had a 3.33 ERA. Tim Wakefield pitched 189 innings, struck out 110, walked 64 and had a 4.76 ERA. Anyone with a clue would say Santana was the far better pitcher.
Does the fact that Santana went 15-13 and Wakefield went 17-12 change that fact? No, of course not. And I should mention that while yes, Blyleven is 10th all-time in losses, eight of the nine guys ahead of him are in the Hall, including Cy Young, Nolan Ryan, Walter Johnson and admitted cheater Gaylord Perry.
As for the lack of Cy Young's, that's an equally bad argument, because Cy Young's are voted on by the same idiots who vote for the Hall of Fame, and therefore tend to put way too much emphasis on team success and win-loss record.
All-Star appearances are just as meaningless, as they are largely popularity contests. Joe Torre once put a struggling Javier Vazquez on the AL all-star team in an attempt to boost his confidence.

Clearly all the excuses are bunk, but there are also plenty of overwhelming reasons why Bert does belong.
We always hear about "the ring" when players' greatness is in question. Bert has two, and he played a big part both times. In 10 career playoff appearances, Blyleven has a 2.47 ERA, and yes, a 5-1 record. By comparison, Whitey Ford, regarded as one of the greatest post-season pitchers ever, went 10-8 with a 2.71 ERA in his playoff career. Funny how that never comes up.

Blyleven was a horse, working 4,970 innings in 685 starts, 242 of which he completed.
Some have argued he simply pitched for a long time, but he wasn't just prolific, he was effective. His 3.31 career ERA passes for some good pitchers' best season. From 1970-1987, he failed to post a better than league-average ERA only once. He finished in the top 10 of the league in ERA 10 times, top five in the league in strikeouts 13 times. His 60 career shutouts are ninth most all-time. He won 15 1-0 games. For his career, Blyleven's ERA was 0.5 runs lower than the league average, the 19th biggest differential in history. And yes, everyone else in the top 20 on that list is in the Hall.

I could go on about how Bert was also regarded as a strong fielder of his position, was extremely popular with teammates and fans, and earned a reputation as one of the game's great pranksters, but then I'd just be like all the voters who will go to any length to find some stupid reason to vote (or not vote) for someone. The important numbers speak for themselves.
Bert was one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. A reliable ace whose 90-mph fastball and legendary curveball gave hitters fits. A workhorse who almost always pitched into the 8th or 9th inning, and who dominated in post-season play.
"He was as good as there was for a long time," Hall of Famer George Brett said recently. "Bert is up there with the toughest four or five guys I faced in my career. The writers never had to face him. If they did, they'd vote for him."

Go Patriots. Seriously, Go Patriots

2008-01-03T23:12:00.000-06:00

I am so pulling for the New England Patriots to go 19-0.
Not because I'm protesting the Vikings, or because I'm a fair-weather fan.
And not because of Randy Moss (though I'm happy to see him sticking it to the rest of the NFL).

No, I'm pulling for the Pats for one reason: The 1972 Miami Dolphins.

Don Shula. Bob Griese. Earl Morrall. Larry Csonka. Jim Kiick. Mercury Morris. Nick Boner-conti. Jim Langer. A bunch of other mostly white douche-bags.

What the Dolphins did in '72 is of course, impressive, because no one else has ever done it. But I'm just tired of hearing about them. Most experts say the '73 Dolphins, who lost twice, were actually a better team.
Yeah, the Dolphins went undefeated, but they didn't play a winning team in the regular season. They entered the Super Bowl against the Redskins with a 13-0 record and were actually the underdogs. They won 14-7.
Morrall and Griese combined to pass for 2,000 yards and 17 TDs with 12 INT that year.
Tom Brady has thrown for 4,000 yards, 50 TD and 8 INT.
The Patriots played the No. 2 seed in the AFC (13-3 Indianapolis) and the No. 1 seed in the NFC (13-3 Dallas) and beat them both.
They set all kinds of records. They're better. It's not close.

Meanwhile Mercury Morris is going on ESPN rapping about how the Patriots accomplishments will never surpass what the Dolphins did.
Someone tell Mercury McCokeHead to shut the fuck up. He's embarrassing.

Comparing teams from different eras doesn't make a lot of sense, and it's not the Dolphins fault that the league was weaker 35 years ago, but let's face it.
The worst team in today's NFL (which, ironically, is the Dolphins) would hammer the '72 team. There are no white guys rushing for 1,000 yards today, no offensive linemen who weigh 245-pounds.
Larry Csonka wouldn't have played D1 college in the modern era, let alone been an NFL Hall of Famer.

The Pats are the most dominant team ever. They'd beat the '72 Dolphins by a hundred. And if they can close the deal, we'll never have to hear from Morris, Shula or Boner-Conti ever again.
That would be a good thing.

Merry Xmas and stuff

2007-12-26T01:07:00.000-06:00

So I guess you know you're getting old when you start getting books for Christmas instead of video games.
I have a lot of reading to do.
Now on my to-do list are The Bad Guys Won by Jeff Pearlman and 3 Nights in August by Buzz Bissinger. Apparently three more books are on the way via UPS according to my wife, and while one of them is undoubtedly The Replacements: All Over But the Shouting - about the greatest American rock band of all time, I'm assuming the other two are probably going to be about baseball.

And in perhaps a further sign that I'm getting old, I'm actually looking forward to reading all of them. I recently finished The Cheaters Guide to Baseball by ussmariner blogger Derek Zumsteg, and it kind of reinvigorated my appetite for good baseball reading.

Reading about baseball (and other stuff) as a kid not only primed me for my present career as a sports writer, but it also probably kept me from either dropping out of or flunking out of high school.
High school was impossibly stupid, the most pointless thing that ever happened to me, but going to class gave me a time and a place to get a lot of reading done. I read four John Irving novels and a few baseball books in my junior year alone, and I didn't do any of it at home during my free time. That's what makes it harder to read as an adult. To do it, I'd actually have to give up some of my own free time. But I'm willing. I'll get started tomorrow.

I'm assuming if you take the time to read this blog, that means you're literate enough to have read a book cover to cover before, and enjoy baseball to some degree, so while I'm on the subject, here are some of the baseball books I've enjoyed best.

*I Love This Game - Kirby Puckett
Puck's autobiography is extremely light weight, and if you aren't a Twins fans or didn't follow his career somewhat closely, you might not have much reason to read it. But it's a fast-moving story that covers Kirby's entire life in pretty good detail. I particularly enjoyed the parts about Kirby's flirtation with leaving the Twins to sign with the Red Sox in the early 90's. He was candid about the situation and it gave a telling glimpse into how the Pohlad's operate.
The books strength is in how it lets Puckett's shiny disposition come to life. Puckett's ex-wife, Tonya, and others made efforts to portray Kirby's "lovable" side as a bogus alter-ego in the later stages of his life, and it's pretty clear that he did have a dark side. But anyone who reads this book will come away confident that he was a great ambassador of the game, a great teammate, and someone who truly did care a great deal about the fans.

*The Mick - Mickey Mantle
Great because Mick pulls no punches. If memory serves (I read it several years ago) he doesn't talk much about his womanizing, and the controversial liver transplant didn't take place until later, but he's otherwise pretty unflinching in his battles with excessive drinking and partying. His story of rising from the Oklahoma farm to the Yankees is inspiring, but the highlights are certainly his late night shenanigans with Billy Martin, many of which had me laughing out loud. The second funniest baseball book I ever read.

*I Ain't an Athlete, Lady - John Kruk
The funniest baseball book I ever read. Written well before Kruk became a terrible ESPN analyst, this book was the reason I knew Kruk was a terrible choice for an analyst the day he was hired. He's anti-intellectual. A Big Mac-and-beer type of guy who never took two seconds to analyze himself, much less the hows and whys of MLB.
It makes for a bad analyst but a terrifically entertaining storyteller. Kruk tells stories about living with a rowdy family, playing with rowdy teammates, and the humorous, aw-shucks demeanor that overshadowed what a great player he was throughout his career is ever-present , but the highlights are without a doubt the stories of the '93 Phillies team and his days playing for Larry Bowa. If you read this book, you'll never look at Bowa - currently a Yankee coach and formerly an ESPN analyst himself - the same way again.

*The Cheaters Guide to Baseball - Derek Zumsteg
Both funny and enlightening, the Mariner blogger does a terrific job of covering the history of cheating in baseball from the dirty play and gambling scandals of the 1800s to the steroid scandals of today. Spectacularly researched, yet it's more than a history, it also does a great job of pointing out (and celebrating) the fine line in baseball between what is considered cheating (steroids, corked bats) and what is considered gamesmanship (stealing signs, lying to umpires). The chapter on the ways a groundskeeper and his crew can affect a game is fascinating.

*Season of Dreams - Tom Kelly with Ted Robinson
Robinson was the Dick Bremer for the '91 Twins, and he does a terrific job of taking Tom Kelly's retelling of the season and putting it in proper context and actually building suspense in a non-fiction book. For anyone who remembers the '91 season as vividly as I do, it's an absolute must-read. From the 2-9 start to the 15-game winning streak to the playoff push, reading it again recently was like looking through a high school yearbook. Loved it.

*Throwin' Heat - Nolan Ryan
Reading this one you can actually hear Nolan's deep, twangy Texas drawl as he recounts an amazing career that spanned parts of four decades. Not just a bunch of stories from his career, but a look into his thought processes on the mound, and how tough it was for a conservative farm boy from Texas to deal with immense celebrity and be a family man at the same time.

*The 20th Century Baseball Chronicle - David Nemec
If there was a class on baseball history (I'm sure there is somewhere) this would be the textbook. Weighing in at five pounds and over 600 full-color pages, it's chock full of stories, photos, stats and figures from each year from 1900-1991.
I learned more about baseball history from this book than any other source ever.

*Hi Everybody - Herb Carneal
If you didn't spend a large number of your summer days and nights with Herb's smooth and steady voice keeping you company while working on the mower in the garage, or relaxing by the lake, or making a long drive, this book won't appeal to you. But if Herb was a big part of your life, and if you visit this blog regularly he probably was, you'll enjoy it. It's like spending a few hours in the cheap seats with your Grandpa.

*Summer of '49 - David Halberstam
So good I've read it three times.
Meticulously researched and beautifully written, one of the greatest American writers set out to create a historical account of one of baseball's greatest pennant races and he wound up writing a novel. Seriously, it's nearly impossible for a non-fiction book to be so totally engrossing.
You don't have to be old enough to remember that season, and you don't have to be a Red Sox or Yankees fan (much of the story focuses on those two). In fact, you wouldn't even have to be a baseball fan to enjoy this book.
I was born in 1980, and I feel like I know exactly what baseball, and America's relationship with it, was like in 1949.

To contend or not to contend?

2007-12-19T13:19:00.000-06:00

I'm starting to think that if the Twins were to keep Johan Santana and Joe Nathan for the 2008 season, they might be able to contend for a playoff spot.
If they didn't trade Johan of course, that would mean they didn't acquire Jacoby Ellsbury or Melky Cabrera. So I'm guessing they'd sign Kenny Lofton to play CF.
So this would be the likely roster.

CF Kenny Lofton
2B Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

Bench
Mike Redmond
Craig Monroe
Nick Punto
Jason Pridie
(Alexi Casilla - if they only keep 11 pitchers)

Rotation
Johan Santana
Francisco Liriano
Scott Baker
Boof Bonser
Kevin Slowey

Bullpen
Matt Guerrier
Juan Rincon
Pat Neshek
Dennys Reyes
Jesse Crain
(Glen Perkins - if they keep 12 pitchers)
Joe Nathan

There are a lot of question marks, obviously, like Liriano's health, Boof's weight and conditioning, Rincon's ability to bounce back, Lamb and Harris playing every day in the IF; but if things go right like they did in 2006, this team would be good enough to contend (though if Detroit plays up to its talent we're probably talking wild card).

If they trade Santana they probably get either Phil Hughes or Jon Lester in return, and while both of those guys are ready to be quality big leaguers right now, they're not ready to be aces - yet. Baker would become the "veteran" of the staff.

And if Santana is traded than you have to trade Nathan next. He's in the last year of his contract, and when you consider the washed-up Eric Gagne just got a $10 million, 1-year deal, it's safe to say Joey will be way out of the Twins price range next off-season (and even if they could afford it I wouldn't do it. Smart teams don't pay $10-$15 million a year for a closer. They also don't pay $11 million a year for Carlos Silva, which the Mariners are about to do.)

I'm still about 90% sure the Twins are going to trade Johan. Although I've also said that I'd be willing to let him walk after this year for a World Series ring. Could they do it? It'd be a big longshot, and it'd be the risk of all risks to try.
What if they kept him, went 93-69 but still missed the playoffs? At that point you lost out on a chance to get Hughes or Ellsbury, lose Johan for nothing, and don't go to the postseason. That'd be tough to swallow.

There have been reports that Santana wants a 7-year contract, and that would be a risky thing for the Yankees or Red Sox, let alone the Twins. But a 5-year, $120 deal might not be as ridiculous as it sounds.

Think about it.

Right now it seems like suicide for the Twins to commit such a large chunk of their payroll to one player. But look at how quickly the market inflates each year. Last year, the whole world thought Royals GM Dayton Moore was insane for giving Gil Meche a 5-year, $55 million deal. Now it seems like a decent investment, and Silva - a lesser pitcher - is getting the same deal and no one bats an eye.

By 2010 the going rate for an ace could be $35 million a year. If they signed Santana now for $20-$25 million per, it'd probably be a bargain in a few years. While the Twins do work on a budget, they're not as "small market" as the front-office staff likes you to believe. The payroll will probably be over $100 million by 2009.

To be clear, I'm just sort of kicking some thoughts around. I still expect Santana to be traded. I just wonder what exactly the team will be looking to accomplish in 2008 if and when they do.

An actual infield

2007-12-17T01:59:00.000-06:00

Last year the Twins infield consisted of Justin Morneau, Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto when the season began. All four were coming off excellent seasons.
But Punto predictably went back to hitting like a utility infielder, Bartlett saw his offensive production drop considerably, and Castillo's primary skills (hitting for a good average and getting on base at a decent clip) were minimized by the failures of the rest of the lineup, and he was traded as the Twins fell out of the race.
That left the Twins with some work to do this off-season.
They included Bartlett in a trade with Tampa Bay to acquire OF Delmon Young and the strong-hitting, average-fieldeing Brendan Harris, and this weekend signed the left side of the Houston Astros 2006 IF; SS Adam Everett (1 year, $2.8 million) and 3B Mike Lamb (2 years, $6.6 million with a team option for 2010).

When Everett signed, I wrote that while his fielding is regarded as being superb, he was a lesser total package than Bartlett. That may prove to be the case, but in looking at the big picture, his signing makes a little more sense and starts to look a little better.
Harris has limited range at 2B, and Lamb is regarded as a well-below average defender. He played a lot of 1B in Houston, and other teams looking to sign him apparently pictured him as a DH/1B.
But Everett, who some defensive studies have proclaimed to be the premier defensive player of the current era, can certainly lessen the effects of Harris and Lamb's shortcomings, especially Lamb's.
What the Twins have essentially done is give themselves an infield that consists of three above average hitters, who are good (Morneau), average (Harris) and poor (Lamb) defensively, and one guy who is a terrible hitter and a world class defender, and that guy is playing the most important position.

3B is at the moment one of the weakest positions in baseball. After A-Rod and Mike Lowell re-upped with the Yanks and Sox, Lamb was probably the best 3B available. Seriously.
Lamb has never had more than 381 ABs in a season, and he's been playing in an extreme hitter friendly ballpark, but his career line of .281/.339/.427 is obviously much, much better than Punto, or Luis Rodriguez, Tony Batista, etc. In the last two years in particular, Lamb, who is 32 and lefthanded, has been very good at the plate.
In '06 he hit .307/.361/.475, and last year he hit .289/.366/.453.
He'll struggle defensively and he might not quite reproduce those numbers in the AL, but even a .270/.330/.440 line would make him a huge, huge upgrade at 3B.
The other good news is the move means Craig Monroe will not be an everyday player. The Twins lineup is almost set, and it actually looks pretty good (nowhere near as good as Detroit's obviously, but possibly as good as the one that won 96 games in 2006).

CF Jacoby Ellsbury/Melky Cabrera (still assuming Johan's gonna go)
2B Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The 1 thru 8 spots will all be above league average, and several of them could be considerably better than that.

One thing seems kind of weird, though. Neither Everett or Young, or Monroe, are particularly young, so they would seem to be added with the goal of competing in 2008. If the Twins trade Santana, they won't have the pitching to compete. If they kept him, and Francisco Liriano actually came back strong, they suddenly might be good enough to have a shot at the playoffs in '08.
I just wonder what exactly the goal is. They won't be bad next year, even if they do trade Johan (and by the way, the trade of Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks significantly helps the Twins leverage, and the Yanks have confirmed they're still in the hunt).
But if they move Johan with an eye to the future, will Everett and Lamb be a part of it?

Either way, it's very encouraging that Bill Smith is giving his manager quality parts with which to build a lineup, rather than taking ill-advised fliers on washed up veterans, or asking too much of overmatched players.

Twins sign Everett....Mitchell report

2007-12-13T11:40:00.000-06:00

The Twins have signed SS Adam Everett, who became expendable from the Houston Astros one day after they landed Miguel Tejada in a six-player trade.

Here's the lowdown on Everett. Defensively he is very, very good. And, unlike guys like Nick Punto and Juan Castro, his terrific defensive reputation is real - based on actual metrics such as zone rating and range factor - not just a made-up reputation built off a couple of highlight plays that showed up on Sportscenter. Jason Bartlett was a very good shortstop, Everett is better. In fact, many regard him as the absolute, No. 1 best defensive shortstop in baseball. That will be beneficial to a young pitching staff.

That's the good news. Here's the bad. He can't hit.
For his career, he's hit .248/.299/.357 in 2,145 at-bats. That's near identical to Punto's .245/.314/.321 career line. Everett has a little more power - he hit 11 homers in 2005 - but he won't draw near as many walks as Punto can.
'05 was Everett's best year, as he hit .248/.290/.364 with 11 homers, 54 RBI, 28 doubles and 21 steals. But in the last two years he's posted Punto-ish OPS+'s of 64 and 56.
In an injury-plagued '07 he hit .232/.281/.318. You thought Punto's '07 season was historically bad (it was) - he had a 52 OPS+, just 4 points lower than Everett's.
The gain in defense from replacing Bartlett with Everett is not enough to negate the loss in offense in my opinion. Factor in that Everett is two years older than Bartlett, and it's clear that Bartlett is the better total package, a factor that deals another blow to the earlier trade with Tampa that sent Bartlett to the Rays.
I do get the feeling that this could be another sign the Twins are strongly considering moving Michael Cuddyer back to 3B. While you can get away with having a good-field, no-hit shortstop such as Punto or Everett in the lineup, you can't do it with another banjo-hitter at 3rd, and there aren't a lot of options out there for a starting 3B. If the Twins do move Cuddy back to the hot corner, the Twins lineup probably looks like this.

CF Ellsbury/Crisp/Melky
2B Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
3B Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
RF Delmon Young
LF Jason Kubel
DH Craig Monroe
SS Adam Everett

That certainly looks better than last year's lineup, but the obvious problem is that moving Cuddyer into the infield means Craig Monroe becomes an everyday player, unless another bat is brought in (and considering they're paying Monroe $3.82 million, that's highly unlikely). Monroe is a decent risk as a 4th OF, platoon guy (if overly expensive), but with him playing every day, you've got back to back guys at the bottom of the order who will almost certainly fail to provide a .300 on-base percentage.

*The big names on the Mitchell report are obviously Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, Miguel Tejada, Mo Vaughn, Kevin Brown, Brian Roberts and some others.
There were quite a few Twins on the list, notably Rondell White, Chuck Knoblauch, Chad Allen, Denny Neagle and Dan Naulty.
The only really smoking hot gun to come from the report, in my opinion, is the direct testimony of injection on Clemens and Pettite by a trainer. None of those Twins names surprise me, and I still am almost certain that Marty Cordova and Bobby Kielty, among others, used steroids.
I could probably write for two hours about the moral implications of steroids, who's at fault, what should be done and so forth, but in short, my general opinion is that the game is at fault. Players can't be blamed for trying to keep up. A lot of guys - Naulty is a good example - took steroids literally to survive in the game, to put food on the table. It isn't always a case of just trying to hit more homeruns. The game allowed an environment to come into existence in which players had to make the impossibly difficult choice of taking steroids to keep up, or find another job.
If I were a guy hitting .260 in Triple-A, I absolutely would've taken steroids to bump me up to a level where I could reach the big leagues. At the time, it wasn't a lot different than scuffing a ball or maybe even stealing signs.
Now that it's illegal they can punish, but any use that took place before testing is the fault of the game's administration, not the players.

So long Tyner

2007-12-12T22:43:00.000-06:00

I'm in Tennessee, hitting on chicks with six teeth, but I still have internet, so I managed to stumble onto the news that the Twins signed Craig Monroe to a 1-year, $3.82 million deal, and non-tendered Jason Tyner, everyone's favorite singles hitter.

While I've spent an inordinate amount of time and space on this blog pointing out that Tyner isn't a particularly good major leaguer despite a nice looking batting average, I'm a little sad to see him go.
He had a knack for getting important hits, he played hard, could play CF fairly adequately, and yes, he did always contribute a good batting average. But I still agree with the decision to keep Monroe over Tyner. Monroe is coming off a terrible year, in which he hit .219, but in 2006 he hit 28 homers while batting .255/.301/.482.
This is a good case to point out how Tyner's batting average doesn't tell the whole story. Tyner hit .286 to Monroe's .219, and yet their OPS was almost identical. And this is comparing Monroe's worst year to Tyner's second-best.
Monroe is also probably a better OF than the noodle-armed Tyner.
The Twins are going to end up with either Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp or Melky Cabrera in CF, and that leaves Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young and Monroe to fill the other spots. There are rumors that Cuddyer could be moved back to 3B if the Twins can't find a suitable replacement, and if that happens, you'll likely see Young in RF, Kubel/Monroe in LF, and Jason Pridie probably makes the team as a backup. The good news is that Tyner's 2 1/2 year stint with the Twins probably allowed him to solidify his bank account a little bit, and was almost surely productive enough to entice a team with lesser aspirations to give him a job. I wish him well.

What I like about the Twins decision to cut Tyner loose is that it is another piece of evidence that suggests Bill Smith actually does some homework, actually analyzes the numbers beyond Avg., HR and RBI. Lew Ford and Tyner were the kind of players that Ron Gardenhire would find a spot for no matter how terrible they were, and it's good to know that Smith isn't as stubbornly loyal to guys that suck. If the Twins had another option for a utility IF, I'm sure they would've jettisoned Nick Punto by now as well.

BooSox, and Tigers

2007-12-05T00:35:00.000-06:00

You probably read all over the place Tuesday that the Twins were closing on a deal with the Red Sox, and that the Yankees were out of the running.
I spent much of the day trying not to throw up at the idea of the Twins giving the best team in baseball -the Red Sox - a pitcher they don't even need, Johan Santana, for Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp and Justin Masterson.
However as the night wore on the deal never happened, and it sounds like it isn't as close as it may have been reported. I can only hope that the Twins are still just trying to squeeze more out of the Yankees, because the Sox deal isn't that good.

In Lester, the Twins get a 24-year old lefty who has posted a 4.68 ERA in 144 innings over two years with the Sox. In 483 minor league innings he's posted a 3.33 ERA with 446 Ks, 429 hits and 203 walks. Those numbers are good. They are not great. This, to me, doesn't seem like the kind of guy you build a trade for a 29-year old two-time Cy Young award winner around.

Crisp isn't as bad as some are making him out to be. He's hit just .264 and .268 in two years with Boston, with only 14 total homers after two outstanding years in Cleveland. But he does steal a lot of bases and is a great with the glove. He's only 28. He could still rebound with a change of scenery. But he's kinda spendy, with two years left on a 3-year, $15.75 million deal.

Lowrie is being advertised as a SS, but he ain't one. He's a 2B. He's hit pretty well in the minors - he had a .509 SLG in half a season at Triple-A last year, but is he likely to improve on Brendan Harris' .286/.343/.434 numbers? No, so why bother.

Masterson is a 6-6 righty whose ERA last year was 4.33 in 27 starts split between A and AA.

Seriously, people, this is not enough.

Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera straight up for Johan would be better if you ask me.
Hughes, it seems almost obviously, is considerably better than Lester, and Cabrera is already as good as Coco, and a lot younger and cheaper. What am I missing here? Why not take the Yankees deal? You're getting a young, cheap, ace and a CF who's above league average at the age of 23.

It's important to note that while Hank Steinbrenner has told the media the Yanks are done dealing with the Twins, Bill Smith and his staff say the Yankees have not told them they're out of it. My guess is the Yankees are still players in this thing.
And let's think about this critically for a minute.
The Sox don't need Santana. Really, they don't need him. They have Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matzusaka, Tim Wakefield and if they keep him, Lester, to make a pretty goddamn good 5-man ro'.
Why trade decent prospects to add $150 million in salary? Just to keep him from the Yankees?

And the Yankees, no matter what they say, have to make this deal if they're going to keep up with Boston and Detroit (more on them in a minute). The Bombers offense is amazing, but they haven't won a World Series since 2000 for a reason - they don't have a No. 1. They haven't had a No. 1.
Chien-Ming Wang is not an ace. Andy Petitte, Mike Mussina and Roger Clemens, at their ages, are not aces.
Just like Randy Johnson, Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Jon Leiber, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras, David Wells and Jeff Weaver weren't when the Yankes brought them in after it was too late for them to make a difference.
With Santana, it's not too late. He's still an ace.

The Yanks' offense is good enough to get to the playoffs, but without Santana they don't have a prayer in a playoff series against Anaheim or Cleveland, let alone Boston or Detroit.

Here's what the Yanks have to decide. Can they let Boston, Detroit and Anaheim take over the AL for a couple years, be patient, and wait for Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain to develop?
Or do they have to play for a World Series ring every year, in which case they trade the farm for Johan and worry about the repercussions later?
If they were smart, they'd swallow hard and take the former option. But if the Twins are lucky, Hank will get antsy, realize his team can't win in 2008 without Johan, and push for the deal.

* If the Sox land Johan it would make them seem invincible. At least it would've, until the Tigers pulled off the trade of the century.
Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for catcher Mike Rabelo, pitcher Andrew Miller, OF Cameron Maybin and three other minor leaguers.

In case you don't follow the National League all that close, know that Cabrera is basically A-Rod, and Willis, before a poor 2007, was Santana.
Cabrera is 24, and has posted an OPS near 1.000 for three straight years. He just puts up giant, giant numbers. In Detroit's lineup he's likely to hit .340 with 50 doubles and 30 homers.

That's not to say this isn't a risky deal for Detroit.
Willis had a 5.17 ERA last year, one year after winning 22 games, and the NL is the weaker offensive league.
And they gave up a ton. Rabelo's a nice player, and Miller and Maybin are the team's prized prospects. The other three guys in the deal are also considered high quality prospects. The Tigers essentially gutted their minor-league system.
But why not? At some point you have to go for it, and I mean really go for it, and that's what they're doing. I say good for them. Mitch Albom of the freep said prospects are like money. You work hard to save money, but you have to remember what you're saving it for in the first place. To spend it eventually.

What this means to the Twins is that it's officially safe to use 2008 as a rebuilding year. I've picked the Twins to win the AL Central every year from 2002-2007, and while I've only been wrong twice, I don't think I'll be picking them again in '08.

Here's the Tigers lineup.
CF Curtis Granderson 2B Placido Polanco 3B Miguel Cabrera RF Magglio Ordonez DH Gary Sheffield 1B Carlos Guillen C Ivan Rodriguez LF Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames SS Edgar Renteria

Sean Casey, who would be the Twins No. 3 hitter, is apparently now a bench player.

Keep him?

2007-12-04T00:32:00.001-06:00

As of midnight Monday, a few sources were reporting that trade discussions with the Yankees involving Johan Santana were hitting an impasse.
The Twins insisted that the Yanks include Ian Kennedy along with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera, a deal the Yankees would have to be retarded to make.
The Twins then said, OK, if you don't want to include Kennedy, then throw in P Alan Horne and OF Austin Jackson. That didn't make the Bombers any happier, and now they're apparently considering backing out of the deal.

There are justifiable concerns that Bill Smith could overplay this thing and get left with his dick in his hand, but he seems unconcerned by that possibility, willing to fall back on keeping Santana for 2008, which, in case you forget, he is under contract to the Twins for $13 million.

Santana angrily refuted reports that he's trying to push the Twins into a trade, and appears to be open to returning to them. He also reportedly would still be happy to listen to contract extension offers from the Twins. But of course, those offers are going to have to be in the $120-$150 million range for five or six years.
While I'm certainly glad to hear that Johan is maintaining a good rapport with the Twins organization, committing that much money for that many years to Santana, who could (and I stress could) be in decline already, would be a mistake.
So that means they can keep him, try to build the 2008 team around him and then let him walk (likely to the Yankees) for nothing but compensatory draft picks after the year.
Or, they can keep trying to trade him right up to the trading deadline. Santana's agent, Peter Greenberg, declined to say if Johan would exercise his no-trade clause during the season, but the uncertainty is there.

Theoretically, if the Twins were able to add a SS, CF and 3B, I might be OK with getting one more big year out of Johan and then saying goodbye. For a World Series ring, I'd trade losing him for nothing.
But is that a realistic possibility? Maybe, but not likely.

That's why I think they need to make the trade with the Yankees. Cabrera will be an above-average CF, maybe even a really good one. There's no guarantee that Hughes will be all he can be, but the odds are good that he'll be pretty special. And they'll both be cheap for awhile.

So the more I think about it, it seems as though I've convinced myself that the Twins have to trade Santana. I think I might actually be disappointed if they don't move him.
That's sad, because I like him. I just don't think he's going to post anymore seasons with a 2.50 ERA, and I love the idea of having Hughes to build the rotation around, with Cabrera in CF.

The Red Sox have said they're open to talking trade as long as the Twins want to, so my guess is the Yankees will stay in the hunt. The "deadline" proposed by Hank Steinbrenner apparently brought little more than laughter from most of the league.

Maybe the Twins will still get their way, and get somebody to overpay. But either way, I think they have to make the trade. And I hope the Yankees, Red Sox and whoever else, do not realize this.

Get it over with already (update)

2007-12-03T02:47:00.001-06:00

*Santana's agent, Peter Greenberg, contacted the Strib Monday to refute the disappointing reports that Johan was forcing the Twins hand in a trade. According to Greenberg, Johan has not demanded that a trade be worked out with only Boston or New York (like it matters, they're the only two in the running, anyway), and that Santana has said nothing one way or the other about potentially waiving his no-trade clause during the season, which, as described below, would've been a rather dickish thing to do. Apparently Johan read the reports and got pissed off about it. So I guess he's not such a bad guy and all. I take back the elbow thing. Though I still hate the WBC.

I just want the Twins to get rid of Johan Santana at this point.
I'm not one to begrudge players getting as much money as they can, like some of the fogies out there who expect players to sign for 300% less than what they could get because it's more money than they make at their shitty job at Citibank.
Having said that, I'm kinda pissed at Johan. As the Twins try to make a deal, Cy-asshole delivered a blow to the Twins leverage by telling them Sunday he will not waive his no-trade clause during the season. Meaning, if the Twins don't trade him now, they won't be able to trade him later, and they'd lose him for nothing but the compensatory draft picks.
Asshole.
The Twins organization made Santana what he is today. Without the changeup that Triple-A pitching coach Bobby Cuellar taught him, and probably without the overly protective methods that Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson used to protect his arm, Santana is not in position to sign a $150 million contract right now.
Again, I have no problem with him telling the Twins, "Sorry, you can't afford me", but tying their hands just because you're anxious is fairly shitty.
Here's hoping that Santana blows out his elbow in the next World Baseball Classic.

*The deal is down to the Yanks and BoSox.
The Yankees are offering Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a second-tier prospect, and Hank Steinbrenner has set a deadline of Monday.
The Sox are offering CF uber-prospect Jacoby Ellsbury and a bunch of secondary prospects.
I strongly prefer the Yankees offer, and I hope the Twins accept it today.
Cabrera, who turned 23 in August, already has over 1,000 at-bats in the big leagues, and has hit a respectable .275/.340/.388 in that time. Much like Delmon Young, those numbers are much more impressive when you consider how young he is.
Ellsbury is probably better (he hit .353 in 116 at-bats with the Sox down the stretch, and has a .313 career average in the minors), but he's not way better, and when you consider that the Yanks are throwing in Hughes while the Sox refuse to include either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz (reportedly) I don't see how it's even close.
In fact, a large segment of Yankee fans are vehemently protesting the idea of the Bombers including Hughes in a deal (see keephughes.blogspot.com). While Santana costs $150 million, and could possibly be already on the decline, Hughes will be cheap for the foreseeable future, and has an excellent chance of being an All-Star caliber pitcher.
Hughes was 20 years old when the Yankees called him up last year, and in 13 starts he posted a decent 4.46 ERA, with an excellent WHIP of 1.28.
In 53 career minor league starts, the 6-5 righty has gone 25-8 with a 2.03 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP, with 311 K's and only 170 hits allowed in 275 innings. Those are truly amazing numbers.
In all honesty, if I were Bill Smith I'd trade Santana for Hughes and Cabrera alone, I wouldn't even need a 3rd piece to the deal.

The Yankees have made the playoffs every year since '95 or '96 or whatever, but as Roger Clemens and Andy Pettite have aged, their lack of a true No.1 has been glaring, so I can see why they'd make this deal. Santana is 29, and the Twins have done a good job of protecting his arm over the years. You'd think he's a safe bet for another five years at least.
But I still suspect his best days are behind him, and would love to land a talent like Hughes, as well as a promising CF like Cabrera, in exchange.

Smith's first deal a risky one

2007-11-28T21:57:00.000-06:00

Bill Smith's first significant trade (I'm not going to count the Craig Monroe for a PTBNL deal as significant) is certainly big news, but I don't think anyone can say right now who the deal favors.
The Twins acquired OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie for RHSP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHRP Eduardo Morlan.

The good news is, the closest thing to a proven commodity in this deal is Young. But the reality is that there is so much yet to be determined about this trade, because all of the parties are so young.

If you put the deal in a vacuum, I think it favors the Rays, but considering the Twins' needs and what they already have, there's a good chance that they can look back on this as a good trade.

We'll try to take a closer look at what the Twins got, and what they gave up.
*Delmon Young
He's 22, and was runner-up for the 2007 AL ROY.
He played in all 162 games, and hit .288/.316/.408, with 13 homers, 38 doubles and 93 RBI. He stole 10 bases and struck out 127 times.
Those numbers (an OPS+ of 91) are certainly unspectacular, but they're a big upgrade for the Twins, and hey, he was 21. Considering most 21 year-olds are in Double-A, the numbers look pretty good. He put up monster numbers in the minors, and his throwing arm has drawn comparisons to Raul Mondesi and Jesse Barfield.

Of course, this is the guy who threw a bat at an umpire, drawing a 50-game suspension, and who got into a shouting match with his manager last year when he failed to run out a groundball.
For what it's worth, he told a Tampa reporter after hearing of the trade that he was "excited" and would "bring 100 percent effort" to the Twins.

Young played some CF for the Rays, but since the Twins are still pushing for a CF in any Johan Santana deal, they apparently want to put Young in LF. That's fine with me. That will allow Jason Kubel to be primarily a DH. It would be nice to have an actual DH, instead of treating it like a left over spot in the lineup.
There's a good chance the Twins will release Monroe rather than sign him, but hopefully they can work something out, because he'd make a nice righty/lefty platoon at DH and backup OF with Kubel.

Whether Young plays CF or not, he has essentially taken Torii Hunter's spot in the lineup, and Young, when age, salary and upside are factored in, is a giant upgrade over Hunter.
That's the best part of this trade.

*Brendan Harris
This is where it gets iffy.
In 2007, Harris was a better player than Bartlett. He hit .286/.343/.434, with 12 homers, 35 doubles and 59 RBI in 137 games for the Rays. He played 87 of those games at SS.
That in itself is good news. He was a damn good hitter. Much better than Bartlett.
But prior to '07, he was a middling prospect. He opened the season as a utility player, and got the SS job when Ben Zobrist got hurt.
Harris, 27, has a nice minor league track record, with a .294/.365/.458 line in over 2,500 at-bats, but he's already bounced between the Cubs, Expos, Reds and Nationals organizations.
Was '07 a fluke? Or is he really a good player? The Rays were actively pursuing Bartlett, so they must not have been comfortable that Harris could be their long-term answer at SS.
Certainly it's possible that the Twins don't either. Maybe they'll put him at 2B or 3B, and let Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla duke it out for the SS job.
Harris could be an excellent pickup for the Twins, but he could also end up being another Pat Meares.

*OF Jason Pridie
If the name is familiar, that's because Pridie was with the Twins in spring training in 2006 as a Rule V pickup. He didn't make the team, so the Twins had to give him back to the Rays.
He'd shown a nice mix of speed and power in his first few minor-league seasons, but not much of a knack for getting on base.
That changed somewhat this year, as he's coming off his best minor-league season.
He started at Double-A, where he hit .290/.331/.441 with 23 XB hits and 14 steals in 71 games, before getting called up to Triple-A, where he hit .318/.375/.539 in 63 games, with 10 homers and 12 steals.
The Strib said he isn't expected to be a candidate for a starting spot, another signal that they expect to find another CF.
But the idea that someone as good as Pridie, 24, isn't good enough to crack the Twins lineup means things are getting better.
Also, Jason Tyner fans, there ain't gonna be enough room on this team for Tyner, Monroe and Pridie. Something's gonna have to give.

As for who the Twins gave up...

*Matt Garza
Just turned 24, and is coming off a nice sophomore season.
After posting a 2.88 ERA in 53 minor-league starts, Garza was much improved in his second big-league stint last year.
A 3.69 ERA in 13 starts, with 67 Ks and 32 walks in 83 innings. He allowed 96 hits, but only 8 homers.
Make no mistake, Garza has ace-potential, meaning that when the Twins trade Santana, they're left with no No.1 starter, unless you consider Francisco Liriano an ace.
With Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Garza, the Rays have some pretty good young starters all of a sudden.

*Jason Bartlett
The 28-year old Bartlett had a good second half in '07, which is overshadowed by his underwhelming overall numbers (.265/.339/.361 with 20 doubles and 5 HR in 140 games).
He stole 23 bases in 26 attempts, and while committing a few too many errors, showed excellent range and athleticism in the field.
Harris was better in '07. But does Bartlett have the bigger upside?

*Eduardo Morlan
Morlan is a highly regarded prospect, with a high 90's fastball and a good slider. The 21-year old had 18 saves, a 3.15 ERA and 92 Ks in 65 innings at Single-A Fort Myers last year.
It's no wonder the Rays held out for Morlan over the deteriorating Juan Rincon, which is too bad for the Twins.
On the other hand, the Twins bullpen could be thinned out if Joe Nathan is traded. Pat Neshek was overworked last year, and Jesse Crain is coming off a serious injury. So it might be worth it for the Twins to try and get Rincon back on track, though I'm not optimistic it can happen.

Bottom line, it could be years before we know who gets the best of this trade.
I'm surprised the Twins had the balls to trade Garza, but even if they end up regretting that, it's a good sign to see the new GM being proactive. Terry Ryan's fear of activity is the reason the Twins were bad in 2005 and '07, and also the reason they've lost Hunter and likely Santana.
Both teams traded from a strength to improve weakness, and that's what trades are supposed to be about.

*The Red Sox are apparently strong players in the Johan sweepstakes, which is great news for the Twins. Pitting the Sox against the Yanks is the best way for the Twins to drive up the price.
The Twins are insisting on Jacoby Ellsbury and either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz.
Ellsbury was a stud down the stretch this year, but his minor league numbers aren't that impressive. Still, he's seen by most as a future star. Better than the Yanks' Melky Cabrera almost certain.
But with Garza gone, the Twins now need to get a top-flight pitching prospect for Johan, and I like the Yanks' Phil Hughes a lot more than either Buchholz or Lester.
Gut feeling: Twins send Johan to the Yankees for Cabrera, Hughes and an additional, second-tier prospect.

Report: Twins to send Garza, Bartlett to Rays

2007-11-28T16:39:00.000-06:00

Here's the early reports on the deal, from the Strib's LaVelle E. Neal III.

Tampa gets: P Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, RP Juan Rincon

Twins get: OF Delmon Young, SS Brendan Harris, OF Jason Pridie

Garza, 24, is the logical candidate to be the Twins No. 1 starter assuming Johan Santana is traded.
He was pretty good last year after starting the year in AAA, going 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA in 15 starts.
In 83 IP, he allowed 96 hits while striking out 67 and walking 32. He allowed only 8 homeruns.

Bartlett, 28, rebounded from a slow start last year, finishing the season with a .265/.339/.361 line, after hitting .309/.367/.393 in 99 games in '06.
Bartlett stole 23 bases in 26 attempts, and seemed to be a good candidate to bat leadoff next year. However, in 140 games, he had only 20 doubles and five homers.

Juan Rincon was arguably the most dominant setup man in team history from 2003-2006, posting ERA's of 2.63, 2.45 and 2.91 while shouldering an enormous workload and always being asked to pitch in tough jams against the best hitters. You could argue he was the most vaulable pitcher on the roster at times.
But steroids may have been a factor, and last year he fell off a cliff, posting a 5.13 ERA.
You wouldn't think he'd be missed, but with Joe Nathan possibly on his way out, and Jesse Crain coming back from a major injury, he'll need to be replaced.

Young, 22, is one of the top hitting prospects in the game. He hit .288/.316/.408 last year, with 13 homers, 38 doubles, 10 steals and 93 RBI while playing in all 162 games. Those numbers are good, not great, but he was only 21. He has a huge upside, and could actually be a better offensive player than Torii Hunter. He played mostly RF for Tampa, but will almost certainly be the Twins CF (assuming this deal goes through).

Harris, 27, went from a middling prospect to a solid everyday SS last year. After hitting .294/.365/.458 in 2,544 career minor league ABs, he hit .286/.343/.434 in 137 games for the Rays last year. He has a lot more pop than Bartlett, but not as much speed, and is probably a slight downgrade defensively.

Pridie, 24, would be an upgrade on Lew Ford/Jason Tyner as a backup OF. He hit .318/.375/.539 in 63 games at Triple-A last year.

More Rumors

2007-11-28T00:43:00.000-06:00

It's gonna stay interesting for the next couple weeks.
Reports out of Boston say the Twins have stepped up their efforts to acquire Coco Crisp to replace Torii Hunter. Haven't heard much about what the Sox might be looking for in return (how about Juan Rincon?).

A rumor circulating around Anaheim is that the Twins and Angels have discussed a Justin Morneau for Ervin Santana and Casey Kotchman deal.
Kotchman is similar to Mark Grace, and Santana is a promising 24-year old power pitcher, but seriously, just how much can fans be expected to tolerate?
The good news is, I don't think there's anything to it.

Another rumor making the rounds is that Boof Bonser, a Tampa Bay native, has been telling friends in Tampa that he is soon going to be traded to the D-Rays, with Delmon Young the focal point of the deal. I doubt the D-Rays would give up someone like Young for just Boof, so you'd have to assume there would be another piece to the deal.

And the Strib reports that the Twins are considering trading Joe Nathan as well as Johan Santana.
Wouldn't be a bad move, because the price of closers is going up, and closers are overrated. Incidentally, I think Boof is the best in-house candidate to take over as closer if Nathan is traded, so it'll be interesting to see if they both go.
Obviously Pat Neshek would be fine as a closer, but you need middle relievers, too.

Cy-Onara

2007-11-27T00:12:00.000-06:00

Don't fight it. Don't hold out hope.
Get used to it. Johan Santana will be traded.
Almost certainly this off-season, perhaps in the next two weeks. And if not, before the July 31 trading deadline. But probably before Christmas.

And here's the thing: The Twins would be retards not to do it.
Here's why:
*Santana, at 29, is supposedly in his prime. I would argue that his prime was 2003-2006, but then again, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and countless other pitchers had their best years in their 30s, so who knows.
Teams can be reasonably sure that Santana will be an elite starter for another 5 years at least, maybe 7-10. He's an innings eater, a Gold Glover, he's never been on the DL, and the Twins have saved the wear on his arm by limiting him to 100 pitches almost his whole career. Meaning....

*His value will never be higher. The free-agent market is incredibly thin, with Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse the best ones out there. If the Twins are going to move him, now is the time. Critics of the T-Wolves have said they traded Kevin Garnett two years too late.
I'm not sure I agree with that, but here's a chance for the Twins to avoid making the same mistake. And.....

*It might be the perfect time to get rid of him.
While Santana's 2007 season was far from bad (in fact it was pretty awesome), he did see his ERA go up a half a run to 3.33, and he gave up an alarming amount of homers (33). Even when he was on, he seemed less dominant (except for that 17-strikeout game, admittedly).
I'm not saying he's on the decline or anything, but I do think it's fair to wonder if his best days are behind him. Is he really going to get better?
He may continue to be an elite starter, but I doubt he'll get better. His fastball has lost a little velocity, and scouts have noted a reluctance to use his slider.
And.....

*They can get something for him.
Now, if Santana had another 2 or 3 years on his deal, the Twins would be able to demand a King's ransom for him. We're talking robbery of the AJ for Boof-Liriano-Nathan variety.
But because he's only got one more year, has a no-trade clause, and expects an extension in the $120-$150 million range, teams are going to be leery to give up too much.
That's unfortunate, but it shouldn't mean the Twins will have to settle for a lowball offer.
In fact, my guess is the Twins will be able to pit the suitors against one another, causing somebody to panic and overpay.
If the Angels, a team with a surplus of outfielders and a swelling payroll, were willing to give Torii Hunter $90 million, I'm willing to bet somebody is going to pull out all the stops to get Johan.

*They have pitching.
Even without Santana, the Twins have the following pitchers to compete for the rotation.
Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins, with scores of other blue-chip prospects in the minors.
A front four of Liriano, Garza, Baker and Slowey could be pretty good.
The Twins need offense, and Santana can help them get some.

So what are we lookin' at?
Well, here are some teams and some names.

First, here are guys I would consider trading Johan for straight up.

Jose Reyes, Mets shortstop, age 24
One of the game's most electric players, I've yet to see any confirmed report that Reyes is off-limits.
He led the Majors with 78 steals, and hit .280/.354/.421. He had 36 doubles, 12 triples and 12 homers, and in '06, hit .300 with 30 doubles, 17 triples and 19 homers.
The Twins would likely move Jason Barlett to 2B if Reyes came aboard.
The Mets are the team most likely to overpay, as their GM, Omar Minaya, is desperate to make a big splash for a starter.

Robinson Cano, Yankees 2B - age 24
He narrowly lost out to Joe Mauer for the '06 batting title, hitting .342/.365/.525, and after a slow start, followed that up in '07 with a .306/.353/.488 line, with 19 homers, 97 RBI. 41 doubles and 7 triples.
Obviously, he's a stud, maybe the best 2B in the game.
Some media outlets have reported that Cano is off-limits, but if the Yanks could get Santana while holding on to Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, I think they'd do it.

Matt Kemp, Dodgers OF, age 23
At the age of 22, Kemp hit .342/.373/.521 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 98 games for the Dodgers.
A big, strong, fast country boy from Oklahoma, there are obvious comparisons to Mickey Mantle. They might not be far off.
Would the Dodgers do it? Well, their GM, Ned Coletti, is a renowned idiot, so I think he might.

If none of those guys becomes available, I think the most likely scenario is the Yankees offering Cabrera and either Hughes or Kennedy.
Hughes is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, while Cabrera has batted .275 in over 1,000 at-bats with decent speed and power, and he's only 23. The Yanks would certainly try to get the Twins to settle for Kennedy over Hughes, but there's a decent drop-off between those two.

The Mets have several top prospects to dangle, in pitcher Mike Pelfrey and outfielders Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.
Martinez is 19 and unproven, though very highly regarded. Gomez is a 22-year old speed merchant who debuted with the Mets this year, and has a pedestrian 772 career OPS in the minors.
Milledge hit .272 in 59 games with the Mets this year, and the 22-year old has an 864 career minor league OPS.
Pelfrey is a 6-foot-7, 23-year old, righthanded, first round draft pick out of Wichita St. who pitched well in limited minor league experience before getting called up. He posted a 5.57 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 13 starts for the Mets.
I think the Twins would have to expect at least three of these guys for Santana, as it's debatable whether any of them are major-league ready.

The Red Sox could become players, with Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Coco Crisp being candidates (Jacoby Ellsbury would almost have to be a 1-for-1, and he's not worth it), but I don't see them becoming serious players. The Sox already have a lot of pitching, and they don't have much offense to offer the Twins.

If Ned Coletti is even stupider than I think he is, the Twins could maybe get him to throw in Chad Billingsley (12-5, 3.31 ERA, 141 Ks in 147 IP for LA this year) with Kemp, in what would be a lopsided deal for the Twins.

The other most often mentioned candidate is the Angels, who could offer CF Reggie Willits (.293/.391, 27 steals), SS Brandon Wood (91 homers in 3 minor league seasons), 2B Howie Kendrick (.322, 5 HR), IF Erick Aybar (.311 career minor league average) or P Nick Adenhart (3.65 ERA in Double-A).
A package of Willits, either Kendrick or Wood, and Adenhart would be OK.

Of course, there could always be a dark horse to swoop in.
But wherever Santana ends up, there's reason to be optimistic the Twins will be a better team (in the long run at least) once the deal goes down.

Torii: Angel in the Outfield

2007-11-25T12:12:00.001-06:00

Kirby Puckett played his last game as a Twin in 1995.
In 1996, Rich Becker hit .291/.372/.434 with 12 homers, 71 RBI and 19 SB while playing pretty good defense in CF. But Becker went back in the tank in '97, and the Twins turned to 39-year old Otis Nixon to man the spot in 1998. Nixon hit .297 and stole 37 bases, but the Twins decided they were ready to hand CF to Torii Hunter in 1999.
Hunter was a below-average hitter and fielder for two years as he tried to learn on the job, but by 2001 he had transformed himself into a power-speed guy who was without a doubt the best defensive CF the team had ever had, far better than even Puckett.

So for the next seven years we watched Torii produce something close to a .270 average with around 25 HR, 90 RBI and 20 SB. He didn't strike out a whole lot for a guy with those kind of numbers, but he also didn't put up much of an OBP, and he hit into a ton of double-plays.
For many Twins fans, Torii's offense was regarded more for what it didn't produce than what it did, as his penchant for trying to pull pitches two feet outside and grounding them to short became legendary.
But in 2007, the rest of the Twins offense was so bad, historically bad, that Hunter was now considered an elite hitter. He hit .290 with 28 HR and 107 RBI, which is very good.
But the dread that surrounds his departure is no doubt based more on the crap the Twins have left over than the actual value that is lost with Hunter.

None of which is to say Hunter won't be missed. He's on a very short list with Puckett, Scott Erickson, Chuck Knoblauch (before the Yankee debacle) and Brad Radke as my favorite all-time Twins. He was a likable guy, and he always, always played hard. At age 32, he probably is bound for a big year with the Angels, and playing on grass for a whole year will be hugely beneficial to him.
I also know I am not alone in being very happy to see Hunter not sign with the White Sox, or Royals, or Yankees, or Red Sox.

Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times had this to say about the Sox and Torii. I know it made me smile: "Consider this the latest significant setback in a bloody, 17-month Sox slide, which includes a 109-135 record since early July of 2006. This is more confirmation that a star like Hunter, who fled Minnesota with the aim of winning a championship, thinks he has a better chance of achieving those goals in Anaheim than on the South Side.
More and more, it's becoming obvious that baseball people view 2005 as an aberration for the Sox, a championship that won't happen again anytime soon. The Angels have sustained a consistently high level since their World Series triumph five years ago, primarily because they have an elite manager in Mike Scioscia and a title-driven owner in Arte Moreno. The Sox have a ditzy manager in Ozzie Guillen and an owner who likes to win but only at his price, though Reinsdorf has no problem charging top dollar at The Cell."

Sadly, that last line could be about the Twins, too.

The Twins did the right thing, here, if you can believe it. Anything more than the 3-year, $45 million the Twins offered would've been potential suicide for a team on a budget.
No one wants to be stuck paying Hunter $18 million when he's 37 years old and hitting .244 with 11 homers as a right fielder.
Which includes Angels fans, apparently.
This is from an Angel fan on the blog Obscure Sports Quarterly: "I am beyond trying to understand the Angels. Last year, they pay $50 million over 5 years to an overrated center-fielder coming off a career year (Gary Matthews). This year, they pay $90 million over five years to a slightly better overrated CF coming off of a career year. WTF? Thats $140 million of waste. And this team is still paying good money to Garrett Anderson! I’m not saying Hunter won’t be a good player for the Angels this year- he probably will. Actually, he probably makes the team a little bit better. What is frustrating to me is that if they did not have Anderson, Matthews, or Hunter, their outfield of Rivera, Willits, Guerrero would be almost just as good."

And this is from Larry Brown Sports, another blog: "Under no circumstance can I envision the Angels spending $90 million on Torii Hunter being a good deal. The reason why it caught everyone off-guard, Hunter included, is because the Angels grossly overpaid, and because Hunter probably never dreamed he would get that much. The Twins supposedly offered 3 years for $45, while the White Sox supposedly offered 5 for $75. That’s about right. I thought, and still believe, that Hunter is only worth around 5 for $65.

So what makes this deal so horrible? First of all, the Angels have set the free agent market extremely high, screwing many other teams, themselves included, for the future. Now Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, and Mike Cameron are probably going to cost a million or two more per year because of the Angels. When the Angels need to re-sign players, or go after other players, Hunter’s contract will be a future benchmark. If I were another GM, I’d be pissed the Angels inflated the market. When Ichiro was extended during the season this year, what’d he get? 5 years for $90 million. Sorry to say it, but Hunter is nowhere near as good as Ichiro, meaning the Angels had no business having Hunter’s contract match Ichiro’s.

Second of all, the Angels now have $130 million, and around $28 million annually allotted for two center fielders. That’s absurd. I can think of hundreds of ways to better spend $130 million. All those rumors about the Angels going after A-Rod? Even as the most expensive player in baseball at $27 million a year, pair him with any guy making the minimum and it’s still better value than Matthews plus Hunter.

Third, it’s like the Angels are just trying to appease the media. Media members say the Angels need a bat to protect Vlad in the order. Sure, sounds great. But one good bat isn’t enough to protect Vlad; they need another top 10 bat to properly protect Vlad. Hunter couldn’t even protect Morneau and Mauer. He batted behind Michael Cuddyer in Minnesota. Yet he’s supposed to protect Vlad? Give me a break. Even with $90 million on Hunter, the Angels still don’t have as good an offense as Boston, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, or probably Seattle and Toronto.

The Angels covered one mistake (Matthews) with an even bigger mistake. I seriously wonder whether or not Juan Rivera wouldn’t match Hunter’s offensive production on his own. Matthews is probably as good in center as Hunter, or at least close to it, so what are you really gaining? Now there’s a huge log jam in the outfield that will probably be sorted out by trades. But it doesn’t change that the Angels overpaid Hunter, screwing up the market. People ask me why I care, arguing that it’s not my money. Well, I am a forward thinker. If the Angels have $90 million tied up to Torii, how will they afford to re-sign Miguel Cabrera should they acquire him, and how will they re-sign Franky Rodriguez when he comes up, John Lackey when he comes up, and same with Escobar?"

Feel better? I do, but only a little.
Because the Twins, or more specifically Terry Ryan, could've avoided all of this.
They had a chance to sign Torii to an extension after 2006, but decided to just pick up his $12 option. According to the Strib, Hunter was looking for a 5-year, $65 extension at that time. So the Twins would have Torii for another four years for about $13 million a year instead of being forced to pay him for five at $18 million.
Oops.
Same deal with Johan Santana. Last year he was looking for a 5-year, $100 extension. Did Ryan really think he was going to get cheaper? The Twins just offered him a 5-year, $93 deal, but it's a year too late. While that offer would've probably been close enough to get something done then, now it's not even close. Apparently Santana is looking for more years and more money.
He will be traded.

And don't forget Justin Morneau. The Twins were close to an extension this past offseason, and they ended up not getting the deal done. After Morneau put up another 30-homer, 100-RBI season, he'll obviously be much more expensive than he would've been if the Twins had just given him what he asked for this spring.
You wonder: At what point do the Twins learn a lesson from failing to sign these guys before they play themselves into the contract stratosphere, and actually try to get pro-active?
They still have another chance with Morneau, as well as Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer. Hopefully Bill Smith has learned from Ryan's mistakes.

As for the near future, the Twins will try something similar to when they brought in Nixon in '98, like Kenny Lofton. They could also trade for a Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, or one of the extra OF's the Angles now have. Or maybe they'll shock the world and sign Rowand.
Hey, I can dream, right?

Torii will be missed greatly, and the Angels will be a better team in the short-term.
As for the Twins, things have only begun to get interesting.

Monroe - B.F.D.

2007-11-14T02:07:00.000-06:00

When the Tigers traded Craig Monroe to the Cubs last year, many Twins fans rejoiced, because, of course, he absolutely killed Twins pitching.
Like Joe Orsulak, Lance Johnson, Edgar Martinez and Jim Thome, he was a guy that never made an out in the Dome. Or so it seemed.

But the reason the Tigers traded Monroe is that his career appeared to be in steep decline (he seemed to confirm that by stinking it up in Chicago).

Now the Twins have picked him up from the Cubs for a PTBNL.
Many Twins fans have already reacted with shock and horror, comparing Monroe to Tony Batista, another washed up veteran the Twins took an ill-advised flier on.

Monroe could very well be another Batista, but there's an important distinction to be made here. Monroe, who hit .222 with 12 homers this year after three relatively productive seasons in 2004-06, is up for arbitration Dec. 1.
The Twins will try to sign him to a cheap contract (he made $4.75 million last year) in the meantime. If they can't, and indications are that Monroe will be open to a cheap deal in light of his poor '07 performance, they'll cut him loose, and they won't have to send the PTBNL to the Cubs. So basically they've bought themselves a window to have exclusive negotiating rights to him.

It's doubtful the Twins look at Monroe as an everyday player, and it's doubtful they'll allow him to take them to arbitration if they can't work something out.

There is, I suppose, a slim chance Monroe could return to form, and if so this could be a steal for the Twins. Maybe his track record in the Dome will come into play. Even if he doesn't return to form, he can be a decent 4th OF (especially if the platoon-allergic Ron Gardenhire limits him to playing against lefties, who he hits well), and I have stressed several times that the Twins need to address their bench as badly as they need to address their lineup. This would be a nice step in that direction.

Ultimately, this isn't a major transaction. I think it's Bill Smith dipping his toe in the water.

Bottom line: If Monroe is replacing Lew Ford/Rondell White, I'm cool with it. And he's a close friend of Torii Hunter's, so maybe they're trying to make it harder for Torii to leave.
But if Monroe's coming in at $5 million, or to play everyday, Smith is off to a bad start.

Easy, Tiger

2007-11-12T01:41:00.000-06:00

We have wondered if Bill Smith would be a more risk-taking, pro-active general manager than Terry Ryan, especially as an off-season of incredible importance kicks off.
He has done nothing yet, but it sounds like the answer is yes.

While I've written extensively that there are plenty of affordable free-agent hitters on the market this off-season, Smith is apparently targeting some higher caliber players via trade, as the Strib reported last week that the Twins are interested in Tampa Bay's BJ Upton and Delmon Young. The article indicated the Twins would be open to moving Matt Garza for a top-shelf hitter.

I'd love to have BJ Upton or Delmon Young, but with the likelihood of keeping Johan Santana long-term getting slimmer, I'm not so sure that trading Garza, the only healthy Twins starter with ace potential, is a good idea.

So apparently now we should worry about the Twins GM being too aggressive. Slow down, Billy Boy.

*SI.com reports that the Twins still insist they won't trade Santana, but that everyone else believes they'll eventually relent. The Mets are mentioned as a suitor, and supposedly the Twins would insist on Jose Reyes in return. I'd damn near be up for that deal straight up.

*You know it's bad when a Vikings game bring back memories of the ol' 41-doughnut we all remember so well. That's what happened Sunday. Brad Childress must've just expected AD to rush for another 296 yards, because he didn't seem to bother with an actual gameplan. Brooks Bollinger looked decent in two relief appearances, so then they start him and don't let him throw the ball downfield. Terrible.
And you know what else? The Vikings offense is bad, but the defense isn't much better. Viking fans are so used to bad (really bad) defenses, that they've convinced themselves this one is good.
It isn't. It may be good enough to win with a decent offense, but it's nowhere near the top of the league.

Coo Coo for Coco Crisp?

2007-11-06T12:15:00.000-06:00

It's sounding more and more like GM Bill Smith is prepared to part ways with Torii Hunter, though I'll still leave about a 10% chance of him returning.
Smith's thinking might be that there are so many CF options available this year that the team would be better served by signing a modestly priced replacement and using the leftover money that would've gone to signing Hunter for trying to find a 3B/DH/OF.
The Strib reported this week that the Twins have contacted the Red Sox about Coco Crisp, who the Sox are prepared to part with to make room for Jacoby Ellsbury.

I'd be OK with the Twins acquiring Crisp for a second-tier prospect (perhaps a Jay Rainville or Anthony Swarzak).
You could argue that Crisp, who will be 28 on opening day, is better defensively than Hunter right now, and he could be the Twins best option for the leadoff spot (assuming they never give Joe Mauer a shot there).
There's a problem, though.
After two great years in Cleveland (.297/.344/.446 and .300/.345/.465), Crisp had two sub-par years (at the plate) in Boston as Johnny Damon's replacement (.264/.317/.385, and .268/.330/.382). He did steal 50 bases in 60 attempts over those two years while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.
At 27, it's reasonable to think he can still get back on track. Some have suggested the glare of the Boston media was a factor in his struggles. That stuff always seems like BS to me, but who knows.
The Twins could do a lot worse than Coco Crisp - like Darin Erstad, Jacque Jones, Jason Tyner, Denard Span, etc.

*The Twins maintain that they remain interested in re-signing Carlos Silva, but I think that's just to give their veterans the appearance that they tried. Silva is, at the moment, the top free-agent starter on the market. He could be this year's Gil Meche - a slightly-above average veteran who someone will overpay for. Meche, you may remember, got $55 million over 5 years from KC. Silva could get a similar offer. Seriously.
In a related note, the fact that Silva and Kyle Lohse are probably the top two free-agent starters available is causing teams around the league to turn up the heat on making offers to the Twins for Johan Santana.

Now. The Twins are in no hurry to trade baseball's best starter. But believe me, they will listen to offers, and they should. Santana's value is higher now than it will ever be. That's when you trade a superstar.
But I don't know if anyone out there is willing to give the Twins the two or perhaps even three major league-ready position players they would probably seek in a deal. A three-team deal might be the only way it happens.

OF Geoff Jenkins, OF/DH Jose Guillen and OF Cliff Floyd all had their team options declined. They are available. They can hit and should be cheap. Guillen's name has popped up in steroid rumors, however.