Monday, February 26, 2007

The Arms Race

The Twins have long been reluctant to give young pitchers a spot in their rotation - that is old news.
Many have assumed that since Boof Bonser and Matt Garza spent the whole second half in the rotation last year, they would have a spot locked up going into this one, but that isn't the case.

Garza is almost certain to start the year in Triple-A, and considering how little minor league experience he actually has (less than two full seasons), maybe he'll be better off.
Boof is widely assumed to have a spot locked up, and probably should considering he was the No. 2 starter during last year's pennant race, but if he has a terrible spring I could see him losing his spot and beginning the season in Triple-A.

So while the Twins hand three spots in their rotation to veterans whose careers are at a serious crossroads (Carlos Silva, Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson), a cast of young pitching prospects that no other team can come close to matching battles for one position.
Here's a closer look at the candidates.

Garza
Age: 23
2005 1st round pick
Last year's Sporting News Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Garza was in the major leagues less than a calendar year from his last start at Fresno State.
He began in A-ball and went 5-1 with a 1.42 ERA, moved to AA where he was 6-2, 2.51, then made a very brief appearance in Triple-A Rochester, where he was 3-1, 1.85. By then the Twins rotation was beset by injuries and ineffectiveness, and the team could avoid the call-up no longer.
He was hammered in his debut, and in a few other outings, but overall competed well for a guy one year removed from amateur competition.
In 9 starts he was 3-6 with a 5.76 ERA.
Garza has a mid-90's fastball with great movement, and a curve that can be a good pitch for him when he masters it. He hasn't done that yet.

Scott Baker
Age: 25
2003 2nd round pick
Baker emerged as a top prospect in 2005, going 5-8 with a 3.01 ERA at Rochester, and gave the Twins some serious encouragement when he posted a 3.35 ERA in 10 starts in the Majors.
But last year he got hammered by everyone except the Yankees (who he inexplicably owns), going 5-8 with an ugly 6.37 ERA.
He was 5-4, 2.67 in Rochester, and through 71 career minor league starts has a 2.97 ERA.
That's more than enough reason not to give up on him.
Baker has a fastball in the 91-93 range, a good change, an average slider and a knuckle-curve.
His main problem is keeping the ball down. His stiff, straight delivery allows him to hide the ball well (Derek Jeter said it was 'impossible' to pick up the ball out of his hand), but that delivery is also frequently the reason for him leaving the ball up.

Boof
Age: 25
2001 1st round pick of San Francisco
Boof pitched very well in the first two starts of his career, then began struggling with control and started getting knocked around, leading to a demotion back to Rochester.
When he returned, he was a different pitcher, aggressively attacking the strike zone, and posting a 2.63 ERA in the month of September. He pitched six strong innings in Game 2 of the ALDS, getting a no-decision.
Boof is a big, big dude - 6-4 and about 250 pounds. He could get in better shape.
His stuff isn't all that impressive - 90-94 with occasional cutting action, a slow curve and a fade change - and as hitters make adjustments this year he will have some bumps in the road.
But he proved he's a competitor. Reminds me of Kevin Milwood, and could have a similar career.

JD Durbin
Age: 25
2000 2nd round pick
Durbin made headlines and annoyed veterans when he arrived at spring training in 2004 and insisted that everyone call him the 'Real Deal'.
He was promptly bombed throughout spring training and opened the year in Double-A. But he went 4-1, 2.52 and earned a promotion to Rochester, going 3-2, 4.54. He was called up to the Twins in September, and went 0-1, 7.36 in four games (one start).
It went downhill from there, as he went 5-5, 4.33 and battled injuries and control issues in '05.
Last year he had a near-meltdown in a televised spring training game against Cincinnatti when he couldn't throw strikes (he was cut the next day after allowing 10 hits, 9 runs and four walks in five innings over four games).
But he rebounded, going 4-3, 2.33 in 16 starts for Rochester. He would've gotten a call-up, but an injury cut short his season.
Durbin throws a mid-90s heater with average breaking stuff.
He's out of options, so the Twins have to keep him on their roster or try to get him through waivers. He would never pass through waivers, so don't be surprised if he (or Baker) ends up part of a trade before the season starts.

Glen Perkins
Age: 24
2004 1st round pick
After going 9-3, 2.83 as a senior for the Minnesota Gophers, the Twins took Perk with one of their 5 1st round picks in '04.
Last year be began the year in Double-A, and though he had some tough luck, giong 4-11, he posted a 3.91 ERA and K'd 131 in 117 innings.
He made one start at Triple-A before the Twins called him up, and that was where he really shot up the depth chart.
In four relief appearances he worked 5 2/3 innings, allowing a run on 3 hits with 6ks and no walks. That got him a spot on the postseason roster.
However, the Twins are not considering him for a relief role this year. He will be a starter, and likely begin the year in Rochester.
He has a very smooth delivery that helps him reach 93 despite a rather unathletic 5-foot-11 frame. Also features a strong curve and change.

Kevin Slowey (pictured)
Age: will turn 23 May 4
2005 2nd round pick
The Twins made Slowey their No. 2 pick after he went 14-2, 2.18 as a senior at Winthrop University.
He went 3-2, 2.24 in nine starts in low-A ball, and began '06 at high-A Fort Myers.
In 14 starts for the Miracle he posted a 1.01 ERA, with 99 K's and only 9 walks in 89 innings.
He was promoted to Double-A New Britain and went 4-3, 3.19 in 9 starts.
He'll begin this year in Triple-A, but will probably make his ML debut some time this season.
Slowey is drawing strong comparisons to Brad Radke, as he's a control specialist with modest stuff.
In 32 career minor league starts, Slowey has a 1.96 ERA, with 235 Ks and just 30 walks in 220 innings.
Those are amazing numbers.
All six of these guys would likely be the pride of the entire minor league system in other organizations. The depth the Twins have in the minors is almost embarrassing.
And these aren't the only ones.
Here are some other names to look for in the next couple-few years:
Alexander Smit, Oswaldo Sosa, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Jay Rainville, Errol Simonitsch, Yohan Pino.
(For what it's worth, Pino, pitching for the Twins Dominican Baseball Academy in 2004, put up the following stats: 10-1, 0.53 ERA, 86 innings, 49 hits, 5 runs, 5 walks, 81 Ks.)

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Rochester Red Wings - Your 2007 Triple-A Champions




Ron Gardenhire said today that he expects Sidney Ponson to be the Twins' 5th starter.
That's not surprising, I expected that myself, but I wonder what Matt Garza and Scott Baker think about being told that the plan for now is for them to begin the season in Triple-A.

And that might not be a bad thing. As much as I don't like the idea of either Ponson or Ramon Ortiz taking spots away from much more talented young pitchers, I've learned to trust the Twins when it comes to their handling of young pitchers (hitters, that's another story).

Essentially telling Garza and Baker, as well as Kevin Slowey, JD Durbin, Glen Perkins and whoever else that they plan to start them in Rochester might be just the kind of motivational that leads to them having a good spring.
It just means the Red Wings are going to have the best rotation in minor league history.

*Speaking of Rochester, there's also a decent chance that Ken Harvey (2004 AL All-Star) and Matthew LeCroy (guy who was chosen over David Ortiz) will be in the lineup, as well as Glenn Williams (.425 average for Twins in brief '05 call-up), Josh Raabe and Alexi Casilla.
With any luck, Lew Ford will be there, too.

With Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, Rondell White, Jason Kubel and Jason Tyner already on board, I don't see how the Twins can justify keeping Sweet Lew.
If they keep him and send Tyner back to Triple-A it would be an unfair mistake.
No, Tyner isn't as good as he appeared to be at times last year, but he's far more savvy, reliable and productive than Lew.

Here's my guess as to how the conversation is going in the above photo of Lew and Kubes.
Kubel: 'Dude, you know you're terrible, right?'
Lew: 'At least I don't have man-tits.'
Kubel: 'I hate you and so does Zim.'
Lew: 'I'm going to kill myself now.'

*Carlos Silva plans to ditch his curveball and start consistently working in a splitter, a pitch he brought out for the first time in the regular season finale against Chicago (a game in which he pitched well).
Makes sense, as Silva might as well fall in line as a sinker-slider-splitter guy.
The key to him having anything close to the kind of success he did in '05 (3.44 ERA) is rediscovering that sinker.
Silva said last year, in which he was arguably the AL's worst starter (11-15, 5.94) will be a positive learning experience for him.

*Just a reminder. Not only was Silva perhaps the worst regular starter in the AL, Ortiz was possibly the worst regular starter in the NL.
And they're gonna be our 2-3 starters, baby!

*A peace-out to Dan Christopherson (second photo), local radio personality and Sioux Falls Canaries director of fun, who died of a heart attack early Wednesday morning. He was 52.
I didn't know him real well, but in spending a lot of time around the Canaries organization in various situations, I can safely say he was one of the nicest people I ever met.
The Birdcage won't be the same without him.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Spring is here....in Florida


While you attempt to enjoy the 44 degree heat here in Twins Territory, keep in mind it's 73 and sunny in Ft. Myers, and snow is expected again this weekend in our neck of the northwoods.

Just to rub it in some more, I've included a couple photos I dug up from the Twins first few days of playing catch.
That's Sidney Ponson on the right. A candidate for the 5th spot in the rotation, Ponson checked in at about 250 pounds upon arrival, which is actually good news. He has pitched in the 270-range for much of the last couple years.
I still don't understand how Ponson, or Ramon Ortiz, or better options than Matt Garza or Kevin Slowey or JD Durbin or Scott Baker.
But unless Ponson and Ortiz are both terrible, those guys are all headed for Triple-A.

The other guy, I think you know. He had two blown saves last year, both of which he turned into wins, meaning he had essentially a perfect season. He's good.

Some of you know that FSNN has been showing 'classic' Twins games over the winter. Last night they showed the Twins 2-1 win over Detroit Sep.9, in which the Twins scored two unearned runs on an embarrassing error by Omar Infante in the second inning and saw Boof go 7 strong, in what was probably the best outing of his rookie year.
On March 4, the Twins will take on Boston in the 'Battle for Ft. Myers', and the game will be on TV on FSNN.
That's right, a real live baseball game. First pitch is at noon.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Spring Training '07


Several teams already have their batteries in camp. The Twins, interestingly, are one of the last teams to report. Their pitchers and catchers report on Sunday the 18th. Their first full workout isn't until Feb. 24. I don't think it really matters, though.

Spring training and the dearth of other sports stuff happening at this time of year is always tough.
Like yesterday I paid $8 for some baseball preview magazine off the rack at Lewis.
Of course this magazine didn't really tell me anything I didn't already know, I just desperately wanted something to read that was about baseball.

Not surprisingly, this particular rag picked the Twins to finish 3rd in the AL Central behind Detroit and Chicago.
And when you look hard, the Twins probably are behind the 8-ball in their division thanks mostly to the losses of Francisco Liriano and Brad Radke.

But we'll worry about that stuff later. The Twins, like every team, have plenty of in-house issues to take care of during the spring before worrying about the AL Central race.

As far as I can tell, these are the most pressing questions facing the Twins as they prepare for spring:
1. The rotation.
This one's obvious, although it would seem four of the five spots have already been handed out.
After Johan Santana, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva and Ramon Ortiz would all seem to be guaranteed a spot.
Which leaves one spot for Sidney Ponson, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, JD Durbin, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins.
What I don't particularly like about this is the possibility that Garza, Baker, Durbin, Slowey and Perkins could all be better than Silva and Ortiz, and it won't matter, at least not right away.
My gut feeling is that Ponson gets the last spot because of the Twins wrong-headed preference for veterans.
While Durbin will probably make the team as a reliever because he's out of options, the rest of those guys will help ensure that Rochester has the best rotation in all of Triple-A.
2. Rondell White and Jason Kubel
Both are pretty good hitters when they're healthy, and the Twins will need them to compete this year.
White was the worst hitter in baseball in the first half, and it seemed like excuse-making when he blamed his tight shoulder. But in the second half, presumably healthy, he hit like the Rondell White we've always known, which is damn good by the way.

Kubel had a brief period in June where he was as hot as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and it looked like he had arrived. But the knees started bothering him again, which caused him to fall badly out of shape. By the end of the season he was a chubby afterthought.
Luckily, Ron Gardenhire took the initiative to challenge Kubel's work habits, which will hopefully motivate him to get back into shape.
Kubel should get pretty much all the ABs at DH vs. RHP, while some combination of Jeff Cirillo, Ken Harvey or Matt LeCroy will handle DH duties vs. LHP.

White will be the LF, which could obviously be problematic. First, the whole idea of making him a DH was to keep him healthy, because he never stayed healthy in the OF before.
So why should this year be any different?
He's also not a terribly gifted LF, but in his defense, he's much better than Shannon Stewart was. Runners will take the extra-base on him, but he'll at least be able to turn outs into outs.

3. Will the real Nick Punto please stand up?
Which is it gonna be? The injury-prone utility IF who swings for the fences and creates almost zero offense?
Or the scrappy, top-of-the-order sparkplug who takes good ABs and makes pitchers pay for mistakes?
My guess is it'll be somewhere in between (.270 perhaps), which is why having Cirillo around is a major bonus.

4. Silva
The Twins brought him back because anyone better would've cost them $8 million.
I don't think it's possible for the Chief to be as bad as he was last year, but the likelihood of him ever getting back to the 3.44 ERA he posted in '05 probably isn't good, either.
200 innings and a 4.50 ERA would be fine with me.
But there's too much young talent waiting in the wings to put up with him if he's in the 6's again.

5. Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek
You'd be hardpressed to find too many clubs with three potentially dominant righties in front of a dominant closer.
The only problem is Rincon, Crain and (too a much lesser extent) Neshek - were fairly inconsistent last year.
Rincon was not 100% healthy, and trying to pitch through it (the Twins had no choice) resulted in a noticeable lack of command. He still posted a 2.91 ERA, but his strikeout rate declined significantly.
But I'm not too worried about him. He'll be healthy, and likely dominant once again.

Crain on the other hand, it's tough to say. Last year he was awful then great then bad then good then bad. His strikeout rate finally came around (a good sign after the previous year) but he got hammered pretty good, too, leaving pitches up in the zone and lacking the confidence to throw anything but his fastball.
I kind of expected the Twins to trade him, as a lot of teams would love to have him, but if they can get him to better develop some secondary pitches, I still think he can be great.

Neshek was untouchable for awhile after his call-up, but it was only a matter of time before hitters adjusted to his funky delivery. Lefties hit him pretty well, and he also faded a bit down the stretch.
But his history of missing bats bodes well for another strong year.

6. Torii Hunter
The fact that he won another Gold Glove last year was a joke. He was an average defensive centerfielder. Both Lew Ford and Jason Tyner were better in the field than he was.
Of course he had his best offensive season, so it's hard to complain.
Hopefully his ankle will be better this year, but even if it is, he's 31. Kirby Puckett was moving to RF at this point in his career.

7. Who gets the last roster spots?
They can only keep 25. Guys like LeCroy, Tyner, Harvey, Durbin, Josh Raabe, Luis Rodriguez, and Alejandro Machado will be fighting for at most two spots.

8. Will Rick Anderson get a raise?
They're leaning on Andy more than ever this year. With a bunch of kids and journeyman in the rotation, he's got to work his magic.

9. If some of the veterans suck again, how long will it take them to own up and go with the kids?
Last year they didn't start winning until they finally listened to me and got rid of Juan Castro (and also Tony Batista).
If it's happening again, hopefully this year they won't wait as long to go with the talented youngsters.

10. Will Jason Bartlett become the game's next great shortstop?
He's got a shot. The guy proved a lot of people wrong, even his own manager, to become the kind of guy that makes a difference at the bottom of the order.


Spring TV
Five spring training games will be televised on FSN.
Mar 4 vs. Bos, noon
Mar 7 vs. Pit, noon
Mar 14 vs. NYY, 6 p.m
Mar 18 vs. Phi, noon
Mar 20 vs. Bos, 6 p.m.

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Classic Post Redux - Feb. 14, 2006 - Wither Sammy Sosa?


Note: In light of Sammy Sosa's comeback attempt (he signed a minor league contract with Texas, and new manager Ron Washington says he plans on playing Sosa every day), I've decided to reprint my post from a year ago, when I weighed in on Sosa's imminent departure from the game.

Sammy Sosa is threatening to retire.
This is kind of like Hitler threatening to kill himself, or Blink 182 threatening to stop making albums.
And yes, that is Sammy Sosa in the picture at left.
Before he started, ya know....lifting weights.
I won't sit here and say I hate Sammy Sosa, because he never really did anything all that bad (other than that whole "weight-lifting" thing).
But he always bugged the hell out of me, and it pisses me off that he has more career homers than guys like Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson and Harmon Killebrew.
The thing that always bugged me about Sosa is how stupid he clearly is. Nobody likes stupid people and Sosa is certainly that.
His ridiculous homerun 'hop', (which he also did every time he flied out to left field because he's a fuck-tard) was the most ridiculous thing I ever saw a pro athlete do, except for maybe that other ridiculous thing he'd do - you know, where he dumps a cup of water on his head (rather than in his mouth) and kisses his fingers and points and whatever else was part of that Gay Latin Handjive.
Only a total moron would do this kind of shit.
The guy played the game like a 6-year old, and I don't mean that as a compliment. Accordingly, his supposed "immense popularity" was strictly relegated to little-leaguers, great-grandmothers and retarded people. No one over the age of 12 actually enjoyed Sosa's tired and phony antics.
Sosa was also never popular with any teammate he ever had. In his mind he was the show, and everyone else in blue pinstripes was an extra.
When he was in his prime he was famous (infamous?) for controlling the boombox in the Cubs locker room and do you know what he listened to?
Whitney Houston and Celine Dion. I'm not making this shit up just to spite the fucker, it's true.
Whitney fucking Houston and Celine Goddamn Dion! In a Major League clubhouse.
If I have not yet convinced you that Sammy Sosa sucks, never read this blog again because I hate you.
Sosa has made over $125 million dollars in his career just from playing baseball. Who knows how much additional cash he has made from Pepsi commercials.
(Side note: This is why I hate Pepsi - they use assfaces like Sammy Sosa in their commercials and think it's cute and hip. It's actually gay. Pepsi and Sammy Sosa may be the most perfect match I've ever heard of.)
But with all that money, Sosa is apparently going to turn down a $500,000 contract from the Washington Nationals, because he's insulted by it. A million and he'll talk, according to reports.
He has 588 career homeruns - 12 more and he joins the Babe, Bonds, Hank and Willie in the 600 club.
Here's hoping he hangs it up.
Cuz he don't belong on any list with those guys.

Saturday, February 03, 2007

It's a fucking horse


I don't want to sound insensitive to the deceased or to animals.
Anyone who knows me knows that I am a big animal lover. Most of the time I prefer the company of animals to people.

Having said that, I can't get over how stupid some people in this country are when it comes to animals.
People - you know, the other beings that make up the race we are a part of - die by the millions every day. In sickness, war, injury, accident, murder, tragedy and so many other ways. And nobody cares. I'm not saying they should.

But a fucking horse (Barbaro) that ran a few laps and made millions for its uppity owners has to be put to sleep, and everyone starts crying like it's a national tragedy.

It's a fucking horse, people.

It's mind-bogglingly stupid how much time and money people have wasted sending get-well cards, gifts and money to this horse and its handlers.
Look people, if you've got some money burning a hole in your pocket and you're looking for a good cause, try, oh, I don't know....
*starving children
*abused and neglected children
*the homeless
*battered women
*the disabled
*veterans
*single mothers
*education
*mosquito nets in Africa
*the environment
*any social program within your community

Any of these would be more deserving of your time and money than a millionaire horse.
These are the same kind of idiots who watch a movie in which hundreds of people get killed and they don't blink an eye, but a cat gets thrown on the grill in good fun and they call their state senator to bitch about animal rights.

RIP Barbaro, I'm sure you and your extended family will be just fine.

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Shit or Get Off the Pot

Who else can't wait for the Super Bowl to get over so we can hear two months of speculation about whether or not shit-teeth over here is going to retire or come back for another agonizingly mediocre season?
Is this any less annoying than the T.O. bullshit? I think not.

Let me be clear on one thing. I like Brett Favre. Even as a Vikings fan, I do. He's a likable guy in a league full of unlikable people.
He plays hard, he plays hurt, he's loyal to his team, he's a great leader, he's overcome adversity, he drinks beer, yada yada yada.

But, dude, just retire.
Or don't, I don't really care. I just want you to make up your goddam mind.

Yeah, the Packers were a little better last year, but they had a real easy schedule - two of the Packs wins came against the Vikes. I still don't think they're worth a shit. So...maybe retire.

But, as long as you came back for last season, in which there was never any hope for the playoffs from day one, you might as well stick it out for a little while longer. Or else, what was the point?

I've never liked the idea that guys are supposed to go out on top, or retire before their skills diminish, or whatever.
The assholes that say and write that shit have never played sports in their life. You don't play sports so you can have nice articles written about you in the paper, or so you can have a 'legacy' or even to make money or win championships.

You play because you love the sport. It's fun.

It was fun when you were 7 years old in the backyard, it's fun when you're 38 at Lambeau Field.

Or maybe it's not.
If it's not - quit. If it is - keep playing. Play till you're 50. Play as long as they'll let you.

Just make a decision, okay?